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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Soil-related developments of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 terrestrial ecosystem model

Terrestrial biogeochemical models are essential tools to quantify climate–carbon cycle feedback and plant–soil relations from local to global scale. In this study, a theoretical basis is provided for the latest version of the Biome-BGCMuSo biogeochemical model (version 6.2). Biome-BGCMuSo is a branch of the original Biome-BGC model with a large number of developments and structural changes. Earlier model versions performed poorly in terms of soil water content (SWC) dynamics in different environments. Moreover, lack of detailed nitrogen cycle representation was a major limitation of the model. Since problems associated with these internal drivers might influence the final results and parameter estimation, additional structural improvements were necessary. In this paper the improved soil hydrology as well as the soil carbon and nitrogen cycle calculation methods are described in detail. Capabilities of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model are demonstrated via case studies focusing on soil hydrology, soil nitrogen cycle, and soil organic carbon content estimation. Soil-hydrology-related results are compared to observation data from an experimental lysimeter station. The results indicate improved performance for Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 compared to v4.0 (explained variance increased from 0.121 to 0.8 for SWC and from 0.084 to 0.46 for soil evaporation; bias changed from -0.047 to -0.007 m 3 m -3 for SWC and from -0.68 to -0.2 mm d -1 for soil evaporation). Simulations related to nitrogen balance and soil CO 2 efflux were evaluated based on observations made in a long-term field experiment under crop rotation. The results indicated that the model is able to provide realistic nitrate content estimation for the topsoil. Soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) efflux and soil respiration simulations were also realistic, with overall correspondence with the observations (for the N 2 O efflux simulation bias was between -0.13 and -0.1 mgNm -2 d -1 , and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) was 32.4 %–37.6 %; for CO 2 efflux simulations bias was 0.04–0.17 gCm -2 d -1 , while NRMSE was 34.1 %–40.1 %). Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the decomposition scheme are presented to support practical application of the model. The improved version of Biome-BGCMuSo has the ability to provide more realistic soil hydrology representation as well as nitrification and denitrification process estimation, which represents a major milestone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimal Estimation Retrievals and Their Uncertainties: What Every Atmospheric Scientist Should Know

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Non‐Destructive Rapid Tool for Estimating Amino Acid Composition and Secondary Structures of Proteins in Solution

Abstract Amino‐acid protein composition plays an important role in biology, medicine, and nutrition. Here, a groundbreaking protein analysis technique that quickly estimates amino acid composition and secondary structure across various protein sizes, while maintaining their natural states is introduced and validated. This method combines multivariate statistics and the thermostable Raman interaction profiling (TRIP) technique, eliminating the need for complex preparations. In order to validate the approach, the Raman spectra are constructed of seven proteins of varying sizes by utilizing their amino acid frequencies and the Raman spectra of individual amino acids. These constructed spectra exhibit a close resemblance to the actual measured Raman spectra. Specific vibrational modes tied to free amino and carboxyl termini of the amino acids disappear as signals linked to secondary structures emerged under TRIP conditions. Furthermore, the technique is used inversely to successfully estimate amino acid compositions and secondary structures of unknown proteins across a range of sizes, achieving impressive accuracy ranging between 1.47% and 5.77% of root mean square errors (RMSE). These results extend the uses for TRIP beyond interaction profiling, to probe amino acid composition and structure.

Chemistry↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Real-time reconstruction and control of pedestal-top electron density using RMP and gas puff at KSTAR

We report the experimental results of controlling the pedestal-top electron density by applying resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) with in-vessel control coils and the main gas puff in the 2024-2025 KSTAR experimental campaign. The density is reconstructed using a parameterized $ψ_N$ grid and five channels of line-averaged density measured by the two-colored interferometer (TCI). The reconstruction procedure is accelerated by deploying a multi-layer perceptron to run in approximately 120 µ s and is sufficiently fast for real-time control. A proportional-integral controller was adopted, with the controller gains estimated from the system identification procedure. The experimental results demonstrate that the developed controller can follow a dynamic target while exclusively using both actuators. The absolute percentage errors between the electron density at $ψ_N$ = 0.89 and the target were approximately 1.5% median and a 2.5% average, respectively. The developed controller can even lower the density by using the pump-out mechanism under RMP, and it can follow a more dynamic range of density targets than a single actuator controller. The developed controller will enable experimental scenario exploration within a shot by dynamically setting the density target or maintaining a constant electron density within a discharge.

EFIT↗

DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest Multipoles

We present an alternative measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) using the Legendre multipole representation of the Ly$α$ forest correlation functions from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey. Compressing the auto- and cross-correlation functions into Legendre multipoles yields a positive-definite covariance matrix without any smoothing -- unlike the baseline DR2 analysis -- thanks to a significantly reduced data vector size. We introduce the statistical corrections required to debias the finite-sample covariance matrix estimate and demonstrate that monopole and quadrupole terms for both auto- and cross-correlations can be used even when the correlation functions are distorted by continuum errors and contaminated by metals. This formalism has slightly diminished the constraining power of the BAO scale, while considerably weakening constraints on nuisance parameters. We measure the isotropic BAO scale with $0.93\%$ precision at $z_\mathrm{eff}=2.35$, the Hubble parameter $H(z_\mathrm{eff})=(239.5\pm3.4)~(147.09~\mathrm{Mpc}/r_d) ~\mathrm{km~s}^{-1}~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$, and the transverse comoving distance $D_M(z_\mathrm{eff})=(5.80 \pm 0.10)~(r_d/147.09~\mathrm{Mpc})$~Gpc for a given value of the sound horizon ($r_d$). Our BAO results are entirely consistent with the baseline DR2 analysis.

Karaçaylı, Naim Göksel [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio Sta↗

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

Multi-tool optimization for computer controlled optical surfacing

With the rapid development of precision technologies, the demand of high-precision optical surfaces has drastically increased. These optical surfaces are mainly fabricated with computer controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In a CCOS process, a target surface removal profile is achieved by scheduling the dwell time for a set of machine tools. The optimized dwell time should be positive and smooth to ensure convergence to the target while considering CNC dynamics. The total run time of each machine tool is also expected to be balanced to improve the overall processing efficiency. In the past few decades, dwell time optimization for a single machine tool has been extensively developed. While the methods are applicable to multi-tool scenarios, they fail to consider the overall contributions of multiple tools simultaneously. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study on the strategies for multi-tool dwell time optimization and propose an innovative method for simultaneously scheduling dwell time for multiple tools for the first time. First, the influential factors to the positiveness and smoothness of dwell time solutions for a single machine tool are analyzed. The compensation strategies that minimize the residual while considering the CNC dynamics limit are then proposed. Afterwards, these strategies are extended to the proposed multi-tool optimization that further balances the run time of machine tools. Finally, the superiority of each strategy is carefully studied via simulation and experiment. The experiment is performed by bonnet polishing a 60 mm × 60 mm mirror with three tools of different diameters ( i.e., 12 mm, 8 mm, and 5 mm). The figure error of the mirror is reduced from 45.42 nm to 11.18 nm root mean square in 13.28 min. Moreover, the measured polishing result well coincides with the estimation, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantitative imaging and automated fuel pin identification for passive gamma emission tomography

Compliance of member States to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is monitored through nuclear safeguards. The Passive Gamma Emission Tomography (PGET) system is a novel instrument developed within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) project JNT 1510, which included the European Commission, Finland, Hungary and Sweden. The PGET is used for the verification of spent nuclear fuel stored in water pools. Advanced image reconstruction techniques are crucial for obtaining high-quality cross-sectional images of the spent-fuel bundle to allow inspectors of the IAEA to monitor nuclear material and promptly identify its diversion. In this work, we have developed a software suite to accurately reconstruct the spent-fuel cross sectional image, automatically identify present fuel rods, and estimate their activity. Unique image reconstruction challenges are posed by the measurement of spent fuel, due to its high activity and the self-attenuation. While the former is mitigated by detector physical collimation, we implemented a linear forward model to model the detector responses to the fuel rods inside the PGET, to account for the latter. The image reconstruction is performed by solving a regularized linear inverse problem using the fast-iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm. We have also implemented the traditional filtered back projection (FBP) method based on the inverse Radon transform for comparison and applied both methods to reconstruct images of simulated mockup fuel assemblies. Higher image resolution and fewer reconstruction artifacts were obtained with the inverse-problem approach, with the mean-square-error reduced by 50%, and the structural-similarity improved by 200%. We then used a convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically identify the bundle type and extract the pin locations from the images; the estimated activity levels finally being compared with the ground truth. The proposed computational methods accurately estimated the activity levels of the present pins, with an associated uncertainty of approximately 5%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The estimation of Poisson’s ratio by time-averaging and Cornu’s method for isotropic beams

Prior research suggests that direct static (e.g., uniaxial testing) and dynamic (e.g., ultrasonic wave propagation analysis) measurements differ in the estimation of Poisson’s ratio because anisotropies and heterogeneities in the sample material affect the two types of tests differently. Even assuming isotropic and homogeneous material properties, prior research further suggests that discrepancies between static/dynamic test results will exist because the error of the diagnostic techniques for the measurand are inherently different. Finally, thermodynamic effects are not present in static tests but can significantly affect dynamic test results. Given the potential for all these variables to produce discrepancies, it would be helpful to have the measurement of Poisson’s ratio obtainable from the same theory and experimental measurements by either static or dynamic testing methods. Our finite element calculations show that by combining time-averaged scanning digital holography with Cornu’s method, it is theoretically possible to estimate the effective Poisson’s ratio from the anticlastic contours at the antinode of the first out-of-plane bending mode shape. This is true regardless of frequency and therefore applicable for both static and dynamic measurements. Our results show that the estimate of Poisson’s ratio by Cornu’s method using data from simulations of mode shapes approaches the true value of Poisson’s ratio. Additionally, our research suggests that beam geometry and boundary conditions are fundamental factors limiting the convergence of the estimate of Poisson’s ratio to the true value of Poisson’s ratio regardless of performing a static or dynamic test.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Accurate core excitation and ionization energies from a state-specific coupled-cluster singles and doubles approach

Here, we investigate the use of orbital-optimized references in conjunction with single-reference coupled-cluster theory with single and double substitutions (CCSD) for the study of core excitations and ionizations of 18 small organic molecules, without the use of response theory or equation-of-motion (EOM) formalisms. Three schemes are employed to successfully address the convergence difficulties associated with the coupled-cluster equations, and the spin contamination resulting from the use of a spin symmetry-broken reference, in the case of excitations. In order to gauge the inherent potential of the methods studied, an effort is made to provide reasonable basis set limit estimates for the transition energies. Overall, we find that the two best-performing schemes studied here for ΔCCSD are capable of predicting excitation and ionization energies with errors comparable to experimental accuracies. The proposed ΔCCSD schemes reduces statistical errors against experimental excitation energies by more than a factor of two when compared to the frozen-core core–valence separated (FC-CVS) EOM-CCSD approach – a successful variant of EOM-CCSD tailored towards core excitations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radiation Mapping for an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: Development and Simulated Testing of Algorithms for Source Mapping and Navigation Path Generation

Image reconstruction algorithms were developed for radiation source mapping and used for generating the search path of a moving radiation detector, such as one onboard an unmanned aerial vehicle. Simulations consisted of first assuming radioactive sources of varying complexity and estimating the radiation fields that would then be produced by that source distribution. Next, the "measurements" that would result from a pair of adjacent spatial locations were computed. A crude estimate of the source distribution likely to have produced such "measurements" was reconstructed based upon the limited measurements. Location of the next "measurement" was then determined as halfway between the location of the estimated source and the current "measurement." With each additional sample, improved source distribution reconstructions were made and used to inform the immediate direction of detector motion. Source reconstruction or mapping was formulated as an inverse problem solved with either maximum a posteriori or least squares (LS) regression deconvolution methods. Different amounts of noise were added to the simulated "measurements," allowing evaluation of the methods' performances as functions of signal-to-noise ratio of the measured map. As expected, methods that promote sparsity were better suited in reconstructing point sources. Reliable prior information of the source distribution also improved the reconstruction results, especially with distributed sources. With a non-negative least square algorithm and the suggested paths it generated, location of sources was successfully estimated to an accuracy of 0.014 m within nine iterations in a single-source scenario and 12 iterations in a two-source scenario, given a 10% error on the integrated counts and a Poisson distribution of the noise associated with the measured counts.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

SpaceNet 9—Cross-Sensor Alignment of Optical and SAR Imagery

Precise registration of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical imagery is necessary for realizing the full potential and benefits of multimodal image analysis. However, two significant challenges presently exist. First, there is a lack of annotated datasets and benchmarks available for high-resolution SAR–optical image registration. Second, an assessment of efficient and reliable image registration methods that can precisely align these modalities is lacking. Here, we present a holistic description of the SpaceNet 9 Challenge and its results. We present a description of the dataset and baseline algorithm along with the results of the challenge, including a description of the winning algorithms. We release the SpaceNet 9 dataset along with open-sourcing the winning algorithms and baseline. The objective of SpaceNet 9 was to compute a dense displacement map that indicates the shift needed to align pixels in an optical image to the pixels in a SAR image. The challenge launched in April 2025 and was active for approximately two months. The top five solutions reduced image alignment error from approximately 34 m to under 13 m for public and private test data, with the best results obtaining a registration error of only 8.5 and 6.7 m on the public testing and private testing dataset, respectively. Usage of pretrained image matching models, robust outlier rejection with RANSAC, and estimating local displacement were common among the top solutions. The results of this challenge provide insight into high-resolution SAR–optical image registration and offer opportunities for future benchmarking in this domain. The baseline algorithm, winning solutions, and datasets are available at https://spacenet.ai/sn9-challenge/.

benchmark datasets↗

Dead Fuel Moisture Content Reanalysis Dataset for California (2000–2020)

This study presents a novel reanalysis dataset of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) across California from 2000 to 2020 at a 2 km resolution. Utilizing a data assimilation system that integrates a simplified time-lag fuel moisture model with 10-h fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) allowed predictions of 10-h fuel moisture content by our method with a mean absolute error of 0.03 g/g compared to the widely used Nelson model, with a mean absolute error prediction of 0.05 g/g. For context, the values of DFMC in California are commonly between 0.05 g/g and 0.30 g/g. The presented product provides gridded hourly moisture estimates for 1-h, 10-h, 100-h, and 1000-h fuels, essential for analyzing historical fire activity and understanding climatological trends. The methodology presented here demonstrates significant advancements in the accuracy and robustness of fuel moisture estimates, which are critical for fire forecasting and management.

Farguell, Angel (ORCID:000000032395220X)↗