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Techno-economic comparison of sCO 2 cycles for particle-based CSP at design-point conditions

In this work, we compare the techno-economic performance of supercritical carbon dioxide power cycles integrated in a particle CSP system. We model four core cycle configurations: simple (with optional bypass), recompression (with optional bypass), partial cooling, and turbine split flow, which each demonstrate different benefits in a CSP system, such as high efficiency, low cost, or large HTF temperature differences. We parametrically sweep cycle design variables for each configuration. The set of power cycle performance results are then combined with a design point particle CSP system model which calculates the system specific cost. The simple cycle and turbine split flow cycles have the best performance in the baseline results, with system specific costs of 5,912 and 5,899 $\$$/kWe respectively. In addition to the baseline set of results, we also vary key parameters and costs in a sensitivity study. The cycle designs with the best system performance limit their efficiency to ~45 %, despite demonstrating higher maximum efficiencies, due to the rapid increase in cost of recuperation as efficiencies rise. The simple cycle has strong performance in the analysis and is on average only 1.4 % worse than the optimal configuration. Lowered turbine inlet temperatures from the sensitivity study improve performance by reducing the PHX and turbine cost. Decreasing the inlet temperature from 700 to 625°C results in an >8 % decrease in system specific cost. Future work should expand sensitivity analyses to colder turbine inlet temperatures and calculate system performance by simulating annual performance with off-design solar and cycle component models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with the market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we propose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price-taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗

A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction

In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Opportunities for and challenges to further reductions in the “specific power” rating of wind turbines installed in the United States

A wind turbine’s “specific power” rating relates its capacity to the swept area of its rotor in terms of Watt per square meter. For a given generator capacity, specific power declines as rotor size increases. In land-rich but capacity-constrained wind power markets, such as the United States, developers have an economic incentive to maximize megawatt-hours per constrained megawatt, and so have favored turbines with ever-lower specific power. To date, this trend toward lower specific power has pushed capacity factors higher while reducing the levelized cost of energy. We employ geospatial levelized cost of energy analysis across the United States to explore whether this trend is likely to continue. We find that under reasonable cost scenarios (i.e. presuming that logistical challenges from very large blades are surmountable), low-specific-power turbines could continue to be in demand going forward. Beyond levelized cost of energy, the boost in market value that low-specific-power turbines provide could become increasingly important as wind penetration grows.

geospatial modeling↗

Characterizing the Payback and Profitability for Automated Heavy Duty Vehicle Platooning

Heavy duty vehicle platooning under highway operating conditions has been projected to provide significant fuel economy gains based on aerodynamic drag improvements of the platooning vehicles. Realizing these benefits and the economic viability under real-world operating conditions presents several challenges. The objective of this paper (the third as part of a series) is to analytically quantify the payback and profitability of heavy-duty vehicles platooning across the U.S. Interstate highway system. In this paper, a rigorous assessment of several factors that influence the platooning system payback for an end-user as well as the revenue potential for suppliers who may be utilizing an equipment lease model dependent on end-user savings, is presented. In this assessment key interactions explored include market adoption rates, platooning velocities, platoon-able daily mileage, platooning likelihood, variations in baseline powertrain fuel economy (diesel or electric), price of fuel (diesel or electricity), platooning fuel economy benefits, price of the added technology, and the impact of natural platooning due to traffic interactions. Further, the paper explores the economic impact of higher levels of vehicle automation for the trailing vehicles in the platoon, where extending the driver Hours of Service (HoS) may provide additional financial benefits. While the approach makes use of a limited fidelity vehicle analytical model for longitudinal dynamics and operations economics, the narrative provides application decision personnel with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architectural selection process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential

Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity diurnally. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition in 2020 to default TOU rates for residential ratepayers in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that increasing wind and solar generation will materially affect the diurnal cost of wholesale electricity. As retail and wholesale prices become more aligned, this could affect the inter-technology economic viability of distributed generation. We assess economic viability through 'economic potential,' or the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a rate of return of 5.4%. In addition, we identify sensitivities of economic potential to capital costs and other techno-economic factors as well as the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. We find that TOU implementation is projected to moderately increase economic potential of distributed wind and marginally decrease that of distributed solar. Over the long-term as variable renewable energy penetration increases in California, particularly utility-scale solar, net peak load and thus peak prices will shift later in the evening. To the extent that retail rates continue to evolve with wholesale prices, we find the changes could positively affect the value of wind generation more than that of solar generation. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) end-use savings shape measure - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation. This measure replaces existing multi-zone variable air volume (VAV) systems or single-zone rooftop units (RTU) with a VRF HR system coupled with a DOAS that includes an energy/heat recovery ventilator (E/HRV). The measure covers 53% of exisiting building stock's floor area and is not applicable to HVAC system types using district heating or cooling or buildings/spaces that include high-ventilation spaces such as kitchens where the amount of exhaust air is large. A DOAS with E/HRV is used to provide required outdoor ventilation air to spaces since ventilation air is generally not supplied by a VRF HR system. An exhaust air energy recovery ventilator (ERV ) with sensible and latent heat exchange is added to humid climate zones while a heat recovery ventilator (HRV ) with sensible only exchange is added to drier climate zones. The ERV is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while the HRV is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and minimum exhaust temperature control for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno‐economic feasibility analysis of engineered energycane‐based biorefinery co‐producing biodiesel and ethanol

Abstract High feedstock cost and low oil yields per unit of land from temperate oilseed crops limit the growth of commercial‐scale biodiesel production. Recently, highly productive crops, such as sugarcane and energycane, have been engineered to accumulate triacylglycerides (TAGs) that allow the production of far more industrial vegetable oil than previously possible. A proof‐of‐concept suggests that biodiesel production from engineered energycane will be possible. However, before making efforts for scale‐up, it is critical to understand the commercial feasibility and economic competitiveness of this process. This study performs techno‐economic analysis of a unique biorefinery processing energycane to co‐produce biodiesel and ethanol. Comprehensive process simulation models were developed for two scenarios: (i) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and (ii) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and hydrolysis of carbohydrates in bagasse. Based on the target levels, the analysis was performed for energycane containing 0%, 5%, and 7.7% TAGs (d.b.). The biodiesel from engineered energycane was found economically viable and competitive to soybean biodiesel. Although the capital investment is higher compared to the soybean biodiesel plant, the biodiesel production costs ($0.66–$0.9/L) were lower than soybean biodiesel ($0.91/L). Biorefinery‐scenario‐1 processing energycane containing 7.7% TAG produces biodiesel with profitability (IRR 7.84) slightly lower than soybean biodiesel (IRR 8.3), but yields five times of biodiesel per unit land and is self‐sustainable for energy requirements. The surplus electricity can displace fossil electricity and provide environmental benefits. Monte Carlo simulation indicated that biorefinery is profitable with a 29%–65% probability (NPV > 0) which is largely controlled by feedstock composition and biodiesel market price. It is important to note that energycane can be grown on the marginal rainfed lands in S.E. USA, where soybean would not be viable. Biodiesel from engineered energycane would therefore be complementary to soydiesel in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Direct Recycling R&D at the ReCell Center

The expected rapid growth in electric vehicle deployment will inevitably be followed by a corresponding rise in the supply of end-of-life vehicles and their lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The batteries may be reused, but will eventually be spent and provide a potential domestic resource that can help supply materials for future battery production. However, commercial recycling processes depend on profits from recovery of cobalt, use of which is being reduced in new cathode chemistries. The U.S. Department of Energy, therefore, established the ReCell Center in early 2019 to develop robust LIB recycling technology that would be economical even for batteries that contain no cobalt. The central feature of the technology is recovery of the cathode material with its unique crystalline cathode morphology intact in order to retain its value and functionality. Other materials are recovered as well in order to maximize revenues and minimize waste-handling costs. Analysis and modeling serve to evaluate and compare process options so that we can identify those that will be most economical while still minimizing energy use and environmental impacts. This paper provides background and describes highlights of the center’s first 2 years of operation.

Gaines, Linda (ORCID:0000000237263387)↗

Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand

Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.

COVID-19 pandemic↗

Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability (PrOMMiS) v1.0.0

The U.S. Department of Energy's ("DOE") Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability project ("PrOMMiS Project") was initiated in 2023 to transform the national Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (CM & REE) landscape, thereby supporting DOE's three enduring strategic objectives: security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility. To address this initiative, the PrOMMiS Project will develop, demonstrate, and deploy an open-source, advanced system modeling, optimization, and analysis application ("PrOMMiS Software Application") that will support industry decision-makers by accelerating the scale-up of novel CM & REE technologies by de-risking the development and deployment of commercial scale processes and maximizing learning throughout the development cycle.

Beattie, KeithS [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

LID and LeTID Impacts to PV Module Performance and System Economics: Draft Analysis

This webinar is a technical review of the measurements and causes of BO LID, UV LID and LeTID, as well as modeling their impacts to PV project financial metrics. We will first review how Boron-Oxygen complexes form and detail the range of impacts to PV module power ratings over time and across climates. Similarly, we will also discuss the measurements and extent of UV LID over time and across climates. Then, we will demonstrate a methodology for translating these effects to pro forma cash flow models and their impacts to PV project financial returns and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). We will conclude with estimates of the value of solutions to these degradation mechanisms.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Thermal Energy Storage Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems Hybrid Repository

This publication details newly created energy storage models developed within the HYBRID Modelica repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of concrete, latent heat, and packed-bed thermocline energy storage technologies for deployment in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to cyclically charge and discharge when exposed to time-varying boundary conditions. In addition, low-level surrogate models for some of the thermal energy storage technologies were created using Python. These lower order Python files are much cheaper to run (i.e., computationally faster) and thus operate well when incorporated within the stochastic optimization problems run for the IES program. Moreover, economic data was collected for use within the INL-developed Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). This information is incorporated within the FORCE platform. This work has resulted in creation of systems-level models for concrete, latent heat, and thermocline thermal energy storage systems with associated control systems. Now that these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies (e.g., Storworks Power, EnergyNest) can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

BMX: Biological modelling and interface exchange

Abstract High performance computing has a great potential to provide a range of significant benefits for investigating biological systems. These systems often present large modelling problems with many coupled subsystems, such as when studying colonies of bacteria cells. The aim to understand cell colonies has generated substantial interest as they can have strong economic and societal impacts through their roles in in industrial bioreactors and complex community structures, called biofilms, found in clinical settings. Investigating these communities through realistic models can rapidly exceed the capabilities of current serial software. Here, we introduce BMX, a software system developed for the high performance modelling of large cell communities by utilising GPU acceleration. BMX builds upon the AMRex adaptive mesh refinement package to efficiently model cell colony formation under realistic laboratory conditions. Using simple test scenarios with varying nutrient availability, we show that BMX is capable of correctly reproducing observed behavior of bacterial colonies on realistic time scales demonstrating a potential application of high performance computing to colony modelling. The open source software is available from the zenodo repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8084270 under the BSD-2-Clause licence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗