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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
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DOE OSTI2019

The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution

This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully--coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60km in the mid-latitudes and 30km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (CMIP6 DECK) simulations consisting of a long pre-industrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO 2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between pre-industrial (1850) and present-day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the 20th century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model's strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERF ari+aci = -1.65 W m -2 ) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Streamflow in the Columbia River Basin: Quantifying Changes Over the Period 1951-2008 and Determining the Drivers of Those Changes

Trend, detection, and attribution analyses were performed using naturalized streamflow observations and routed land surface model runoff for 10 subbasins in the Columbia River Basin during water years 1951–2008. The Energy Exascale Earth System land-surface model (ELM) version 1.0 and the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model were used to conduct semi-factorial simulations driven by multiple sets of bias-corrected forcing data sets. Four main potential drivers, including climate change (CLMT), CO 2 concentration (CO 2 ), nitrogen deposition (NDEP), and land use and land cover change (LULCC), were analyzed during the assessment. All subbasins showed significant (α = 0.10) declines in the observed amount of annual total streamflow, except for the Middle and Upper Snake and Upper Columbia Subbasins. These declines were led by significant decreases in June–October streamflow, which also directly led to significant decreases in peak and summer streamflow. Except for the Snake River Subbasins, LULCC had the same pattern of declines in monthly streamflow, but the period was shifted to May–September. NDEP also had significant trends in June–October; however, rather than decreases, the trends showed significant increases in streamflow. While there were significant trends in CO 2 , NDEP, and LULCC, their signals of change were weak in comparison to the signal in CLMT and the natural internal variability found in streamflow. Overall, the detection and attribution analysis showed that the historical changes found in annual total, center of timing of, and summer mean streamflow could be attributed to changing climate and variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Southern Annular Mode and Southern Ocean Surface Westerly Winds in E3SM

Climate variability and change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are influenced by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and are closely related to changes in the kinematic properties of the SH surface zonal winds. The SAM and SH surface zonal winds have strong effects on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation system. In this study we investigate the variability and trend in the SAM and position and strength of the surface zonal wind stress (TAUX), using two ensembles of simulations covering the historical record from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) for 1979-2014. In addition, performance of two CO 2 forcing simulations from the E3SM (E3SM-1pctCO2 and 4xCO2) is assessed to examine the sensitivity of the variability and changes in the SAM and SH surface TAUX to climate forcing. In general, all E3SM simulations tend to capture the dominant feature of the SAM pattern reasonably well. The annual SAM index in the E3SM-HIST simulation shows a significant increasing trend. These features are similar to the trends in the strength (along with poleward shift in the position) of the annual surface TAUX. For the climatological surface TAUX position and strength, the two CO 2 forcing simulations show slightly poleward movement and stronger intensity, while the E3SM-HIST is equatorward and weaker than observations. In the relationship between the SAM and surface TAUX, we show that the SAM index exhibits a positive (negative) relationship with the strength (position) of the surface TAUX in the variability for all seasons and annual mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dust Radiative Effects on Climate by Glaciating Mixed-Phase Clouds

Mineral dust plays an important role in the primary formation of ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds by acting as ice nucleating particles (INPs). It can influence the cloud phase transition and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds, both of which are crucial to global energy budget and climate. In this study, we investigate the dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds through heterogeneous ice nucleation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Dust and INP concentrations simulated from two versions of E3SM with three ice nucleation parameterizations were evaluated against observations in the Northern Hemisphere. Constrained by these observations, E3SM shows that dust INPs induce a global mean net cloud radiative effect of 0.05 to 0.26 W/m 2 with the predominant warming appearing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, a cooling effect is found in the Arctic due to reduced longwave cloud forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subtropical marine low stratiform cloud deck spatial errors in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model

Marine low-level clouds continue to be poorly simulated in models despite many studies and field experiments devoted to their improvement. Here we focus on the spatial errors in the cloud decks in the Department of Energy Earth system model (E3SM) relative to the satellite climatology by calculating centroid distances, area ratios, and overlap ratios. Since model dynamics is better simulated than clouds, these errors are attributed primarily to the model physics. To gain additional insight, we performed a sensitivity run in which model winds were nudged to those of reanalysis. This results in a large change (but not necessarily an improvement) in the simulated cloud decks. These differences between simulations are mainly due to the interactions between model dynamics and physics. These results suggest that both model physics (widely recognized) and its interaction with dynamics (less recognized) are important to model improvement in simulating these low-level clouds.

Brunke, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding Monsoonal Water Cycle Changes in a Warmer Climate in E3SMv1 Using a Normalized Gross Moist Stability Framework

Abstract One of the grand challenges of climate science is understanding the changes of the tropical rain belts and monsoon systems owing to CO 2 ‐induced warming. A promising path forward links the fluxes of energy and moisture to tropical circulation features. To this end, we make use of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1, where the divergence of moist static energy and moisture have been calculated online, and employ a normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) diagnostic framework to understand the linkages between changes in the flow of energy and moisture within the monsoons. We focus on the Asian Summer Monsoon system and utilize a series of atmosphere‐land and atmosphere‐land‐ocean simulations to understand the connection between fluxes and monsoons. Uncoupled simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures indicate that decreases in NGMS over land are important in explaining precipitation increases in response to both sea surface temperature and CO 2 increases. In fully coupled experiments, NGMS decreases remain an important contributor to the increase in P‐E, but the coupled simulations highlight the importance of consistent ocean and land responses in interpreting the monsoon changes. This study indicates that transient eddy fluxes play an important role in NGMS decreases and that a time‐mean view of the monsoon circulations is insufficient to quantify the link between future changes in the fluxes of energy and moisture. Compensation between dynamic and thermodynamic components of vertical moist static energy advection occurs, with the thermodynamic contribution dominating. The compensation is shown to be sensitive to relative humidity, with higher relative humidity leading to a stronger thermodynamic component.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of an Improved Convective Triggering Function: Observational Evidence and SCM Tests

This study provides a strong observational support for a recently developed convective triggering function that uses the large-scale dynamic convective available potential energy (dCAPE) as a constraint combined with an unrestricted air parcel launch level (ULL) to relax the unrealistic strong coupling of convection to surface heating and capture nocturnal elevated convection. Both case study and statistical analysis are conducted using the observations collected from the Department of Energy (DOE)'s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites. They show that dCAPE has a much stronger correlation with precipitation than CAPE and ULL is essential to detect elevated convection above boundary layer under both midlatitude and tropical conditions and for both afternoon and nighttime deep convection regimes. Sensitivity tests with the single-column model (SCM) of DOE's Energy Exascale and Earth System Model (E3SM) indicate that the role of dCAPE in suppressing daytime convection is more effective for tropical convection than midlatitude convection. Even though the dCAPE can suppress the overestimated convection, ULL plays a much bigger role in improving the diurnal cycle of precipitation than dCAPE. It not only helps capture nocturnal elevated convection, but also significantly removes the spurious morning precipitation seen in the default model, due to the release of unstable energy at night. However, the use of ULL has led to an overestimation of light-to-moderate precipitation (1-10 mm/day) due to more convection being triggered above boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Effects of Phosphorus Cycle Dynamics on Carbon Sources and Sinks in the Amazon Region: A Modeling Study Using ELM v1

Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global net primary productivity and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as these comprise approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model (ELM v1) improves simulated spatial pattern of wood productivity. The P-enabled ELM v1 is able to capture the declining west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes using soils data, ELMv1 is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass. Our model simulations show that the consideration of P availability leads to a smaller carbon sink associated with CO 2 fertilization effect and lower carbon emissions due to land use and land cover change. Our simulations suggest P limitation would significantly reduce the carbon sink associated with CO 2 fertilization effects through the 21st century. We conclude that P cycle dynamics affect both sources and sinks of carbon in the Amazon region, and the effects of P limitation would become increasingly important as CO 2 increases. Finally, P limitation must be considered for projecting future carbon dynamics in tropical ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improved Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in E3SM With a Revised Convective Triggering Function

Abstract We revise the convective triggering function in Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) by introducing a dynamic constraint on the initiation of convection that emulates the collective dynamical effects to prevent convection from being triggered too frequently and allowing air parcels to launch above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. The former is referred to as the dynamic Convective Available Potential Energy (dCAPE) trigger and the latter as the Unrestricted Launch Level (ULL) trigger. Compared to the original trigger in EAMv1 that initiates convection whenever CAPE is larger than a threshold, the revised trigger substantially improves the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation over both midlatitude and tropical lands. The nocturnal peak of precipitation and the eastward propagation of convection downstream of the Rockies and over the adjacent Great Plains are much better captured than those in the default model. The overall impact on mean precipitation is minor with some notable improvements over the Indo‐Western Pacific, subtropical Pacific and Atlantic, and South America. In general, the dCAPE trigger helps to better capture late afternoon rainfall peak, while ULL is key to capturing nocturnal elevated convection and the eastward propagation of convection. The dCAPE trigger also primarily contributes to the considerable reduction of convective precipitation over subtropical regions and the frequency of light‐to‐moderate precipitation occurrence. However, no clear improvement is seen in intense convection and the amplitude of diurnal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improved Simulation of the QBO in E3SMv1

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean wind is a prominent feature of the tropical lower stratosphere and has been shown to influence stratospheric and tropospheric variability. Although observed for many decades, the QBO is difficult to be accurately captured in Earth system models. The newly developed U.S. Department of Energy Energy Exascale Earth System Model, Version 1 (E3SMv1) is capable of resolving stratospheric dynamics as it has a top at 0.1 hPa and 72 levels. The tropical oscillation of the zonal mean zonal wind in the default version of the model is too fast and too strong compared to the observed QBO. Here we evaluate the current simulation of the QBO and present simulations with modified convective gravity wave parameterization parameters that make the oscillation more realistic, especially in terms of the period. Although improvements in the QBO are obtained through modifications to the parameterized gravity waves, we find that the forcing of the QBO from Kelvin and mixed-Rossby gravity waves is small due to weak sources in the troposphere. The changes to the parameterized convective gravity waves (and QBO) are primarily limited to the tropical stratosphere. Small changes to mean wind and temperature are also found in Northern Hemisphere winter in the uppermost troposphere between 10°N and 60°N. Modifications to parameterized convectively generated gravity waves result in changes in interannual variability, primarily in the Southern Hemisphere, and modest changes in sea level pressure variability over the Pacific are also noted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Objective and Efficient Method for Assessing the Impact of Reduced-Precision Calculations On Solution Correctness

Recent studies have shown that reducing the precision of floating-point calculations in an atmospheric model can improve the models' computational performance without affecting model fidelity, but code changes are needed to accommodate lower precision, and a small number of calculations might need to retain higher precision to prevent undue round-off error. For complex and computationally expensive systems like the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a method is needed to objectively assess the quality of the lower-precision simulations and to quickly identify problematic code pieces This paper demonstrates that solution correctness can be evaluated through a simple and quantitative error metric based on time step convergence. The proposed test method can unambiguously detect the accumulation of precision error and objectively assess its impact on solution accuracy. Since fast physical processes are known to affect key features of the multi-year mean climate in an atmospheric model, we show that the convergence test applied to short simulations can provide useful information about the impact of reduced precision on a model’s long-term behavior. In contrast, the traditional way of climate model evaluation requires multi-year simulations and involves inspecting many physical quantities for statistical significance in the presence of natural variability. The simplicity, computational efficiency, and objectivity of the proposed method makes it very attractive for high-resolution model development. The method is also expected to be applicable to other models that numerically solve time evolution equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Description and Results at High Resolution

This study provides an overview of the coupled high-resolution Version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents the characteristics of a 50-year-long high-resolution control simulation with time-invariant 1950 forcings following the HighResMIP protocol. In terms of global root-mean-squared error metrics, this high-resolution simulation is generally superior to results from the low-resolution configuration of E3SMv1 (due to resolution, tuning changes, and possibly initialization procedure) and compares favorably to models in the CMIP5 ensemble. Ocean and sea ice simulation is particularly improved, due to better resolution of bathymetry, the ability to capture more variability and extremes in winds and currents, and the ability to resolve mesoscale ocean eddies. The largest improvement in this regard is an ice-free Labrador Sea, which is a major problem at low resolution. Interestingly, several features found to improve with resolution in previous studies are insensitive to resolution or even degrade in E3SMv1. Most notable in this regard are warm bias and associated stratocumulus deficiency in eastern subtropical oceans and lack of improvement in El Niño. Another major finding of this study is that resolution increase had negligible impact on climate sensitivity (measured by net feedback determined through uniform +4K prescribed sea surface temperature increase) and aerosol sensitivity. Cloud response to resolution increase consisted of very minor decrease at all levels. Large-scale patterns of precipitation bias were also relatively unaffected by grid spacing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerically Relevant Timescales in the MG2 Microphysics Model

Climate models rely on parameterizations of a variety of processes in the atmospheric physics, but a common concern is that the temporal resolution is too coarse to consistently resolve the behavior that individual parameterizations are designed to capture. This study examines timescales numerically derived from the Morrison-Gettelman (MG2) microphysics as implemented within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1 (E3SMv1). Numerically relevant timescales in MG2 are derived by computing the eigenspectrum of its Jacobian. These timescales are found to often be smaller than the default 5 min time step used for MG2. The fast timescales are then heuristically connected to individual microphysics processes. By substepping a few particular rain processes within MG2, the time discretization error for those processes was considerably reduced with minimal additional expense to the overall microphysics. While this improvement has a substantial effect on the target processes and on the vertical distribution of stratiform-derived rain within E3SMv1, the overall model climate is found to not be sensitive to MG2 time step. Here, we hypothesize that this is because the surface climate does not depend strongly on certain process rates, especially MG2's rain evaporation rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Time Step Convergence in an Atmosphere Model With Simplified Physics: The Impacts of Closure Assumption and Process Coupling

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of sub-grid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time-step sensitivity and slower-than-expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral-element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large-scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time-step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time-step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long-term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward Understanding the Simulated Phase Partitioning of Arctic Single-Layer Mixed-Phase Clouds in E3SM

21 Mixed-phase clouds are widespread in the Arctic and have substantial impacts on the 22 surface energy budget, sea ice extent, and regional climate. Significant changes are found in the 23 modeled phase partitioning of Arctic mixed-phase clouds in the newly developed U.S. 24 Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model 25 version 1 (EAMv1) compared to its predecessor (CAM5/EAMv0). The mixed-phase clouds 26 simulated by EAMv1 is overly dominated by super-cool liquid which is often underestimated by 27 CAM5. Compared to CAM5, EAMv1 has made several important changes in its cloud physical 28 parameterizations, including using CLUBB to unify shallow convection, PBL turbulence, and 29 cloud macrophysics, as well as updating the MG two-moment cloud microphysics scheme and 30 using the CNT heterogeneous ice nucleation scheme to replace the Meyers scheme for mixed- 31 phase clouds. To understand which of the newly-implemented physical parameterizations is 32 responsible for the change of modeled mixed-phase cloud phase partitioning in EAMv1, 33 sensitivity tests are conducted by utilizing the short-term hindcast approach and results are 34 compared to the observations from the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) 35 field campaign. 36 It is found that although each scheme contributes to the decrease of cloud ice water 37 content (IWC) and increase of cloud liquid water content (LWC), only the combined effect of 38 CLUBB and CNT can explain the significant underestimation of IWC. By examining the budgets 39 of cloud microphysical processes, CLUBB is found to play a dominant role due to the fact that 40 CLUBB does not diagnoses cloud ice phase water in its assumed joint PDF method and thus may 41 not provide sufficient cloud ice to initialize ice phase microphysical processes such as the growth 42 of ice crystals through vapor deposition. Although a more effective heterogeneous ice nucleation 43 may alleviate the underestimation of IWC, the ice phase process in CLUBB requires urgent 44 attention in the future model development.

Zhang, Meng↗