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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Dynamic Behaviors in Converter- Dominated Power Systems via RMS and EMT Simulations: A Study of Hawaii’s NELHA Microgrid

The transition from conventional power systems to converter-based microgrids has significantly advanced sustainability, clean energy integration, and operational reliability. However, this paradigm shift introduces operational challenges due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and the non-linear characteristics of power electronic loads, inducing voltage fluctuations and harmonic distortions that complicate voltage and frequency regulation. Accurate dynamic modeling is hypothesized to be critical for capturing such effects, enabling reliable simulation and control strategy development. This study introduces an innovative dynamic modeling framework for a real-world converter-based microgrid, utilizing both root mean square (RMS) and electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation methods. The microgrid was modeled in DIgSILENT PowerFactory, with simulations calibrated against high-resolution field measurements from SEL-735 power quality meters. Results show that RMS simulations effectively characterize steady-state dynamics, while EMT simulations are essential for capturing high-frequency transients and non-linear effects from photovoltaic inverters and variable frequency drives (VFDs). This complementary approach provides a comprehensive understanding of microgrid behavior, providing critical insights for improving simulation accuracy, advancing protection schemes, and improving resilience in future low-inertia power networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A real- world highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A realworld highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗
NASA NTRS2009

Updating the Finite Element Model of the Aerostructures Test Wing using Ground Vibration Test Data

Improved and/or accelerated decision making is a crucial step during flutter certification processes. Unfortunately, most finite element structural dynamics models have uncertainties associated with model validity. Tuning the finite element model using measured data to minimize the model uncertainties is a challenging task in the area of structural dynamics. The model tuning process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of the mass and stiffness properties of the structures. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. By utilizing the multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool in order to optimize the objective function and constraints; the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes can be matched to the target data to retain the mass matrix orthogonality. This approach has been applied to minimize the model uncertainties for the structural dynamics model of the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW), which was designed and tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) (Edwards, California). This study has shown that natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes from the updated finite element model have excellent agreement with corresponding measured data.

Lung, Shun-fat↗
NASA NTRS2009

Updating the Finite Element Model of the Aerostructures Test Wing Using Ground Vibration Test Data

Improved and/or accelerated decision making is a crucial step during flutter certification processes. Unfortunately, most finite element structural dynamics models have uncertainties associated with model validity. Tuning the finite element model using measured data to minimize the model uncertainties is a challenging task in the area of structural dynamics. The model tuning process requires not only satisfactory correlations between analytical and experimental results, but also the retention of the mass and stiffness properties of the structures. Minimizing the difference between analytical and experimental results is a type of optimization problem. By utilizing the multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization (MDAO) tool in order to optimize the objective function and constraints; the mass properties, the natural frequencies, and the mode shapes can be matched to the target data to retain the mass matrix orthogonality. This approach has been applied to minimize the model uncertainties for the structural dynamics model of the aerostructures test wing (ATW), which was designed and tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). This study has shown that natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes from the updated finite element model have excellent agreement with corresponding measured data.

Lung, Shun-Fat↗
NASA NTRS2011

Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
NASA NTRS1988

Helicopter mathematical models and control law development for handling qualities research

Progress made in joint NASA/Army research concerning rotorcraft flight-dynamics modeling, design methodologies for rotorcraft flight-control laws, and rotorcraft parameter identification is reviewed. Research into these interactive disciplines is needed to develop the analytical tools necessary to conduct flying qualities investigations using both the ground-based and in-flight simulators, and to permit an efficient means of performing flight test evaluation of rotorcraft flying qualities for specification compliance. The need for the research is particularly acute for rotorcraft because of their mathematical complexity, high order dynamic characteristics, and demanding mission requirements. The research in rotorcraft flight-dynamics modeling is pursued along two general directions: generic nonlinear models and nonlinear models for specific rotorcraft. In addition, linear models are generated that extend their utilization from 1-g flight to high-g maneuvers and expand their frequency range of validity for the design analysis of high-gain flight control systems. A variety of methods ranging from classical frequency-domain approaches to modern time-domain control methodology that are used in the design of rotorcraft flight control laws is reviewed. Also reviewed is a study conducted to investigate the design details associated with high-gain, digital flight control systems for combat rotorcraft. Parameter identification techniques developed for rotorcraft applications are reviewed.

Chen, Robert T. N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hindcast Skill Assessment of Ridging Events Related to Drought Over the Western United States

Persistent atmospheric ridging events centered near the western United States are associated with widespread precipitation deficits and meteorological drought. Due to the relatively low skill of- dynamical models in forecasting precipitation on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) time scales across this region, forecasts of ridging are explored in this study as a potential bridge for early warning drought prediction. To assess skill, we evaluate deterministic and probabilistic S2S hindcasts (out to 6 week lead time) of ridging events and geopotential height anomalies over the western United States in five ensemble hindcast systems. Prediction skill for ridging events is shown to be highly variable across models. For some models, longer‐time‐averaged patterns of geopotential height anomalies across the first 6 weeks can be skillfully simulated, when evaluated probabilistically against climatology. The most skillful models show modest skill in forecasting above normal ridging occurrences at lead times of Weeks 3–4 and Weeks 5–6,with some sensitivity to the specific ridge location and method for determining skill. Using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model as a case study, longer lead time forecast busts are shown to often occur under extended periods of highly active La Nina‐like tropical convection. Model errors at simulating these tropical convection features may have a disproportionately large impact and degrade downstream forecasts over the western United States. Despite the documented model shortcomings, our results highlight an opportunity to target skillful ridging forecasts from dynamical models for improving early warning drought forecasting at S2S lead times.

S2S↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the dynamic response of rock masses with multiple compliant fluid saturated joint sets—Part I: Mesoscale simulations

Recently a mesoscale model was developed that includes thermomechanically consistent constitutive equations with dissipation due to porous compaction, inelastic distortional deformation rate, and slipping on persistent dry joint surfaces. In this Part I of a two-part paper, we describe enhancements of the mesoscale model which include: normal compliance with hysteresis, non-persistent joints with finite area, joint sets with angular deviation, and the weakening effect of fluid pressure in the joints. Examples study the influences of these effects on average strength. These computationally expensive simulations are used to inspire functional forms in a continuum model, described in Part II, which is needed for large scale simulations of real applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Large-Scale Plasmaspheric Density Trough Associated With the 24 May 2000 Geomagnetic Storm: IMAGE EUV Observations and Global Core Plasma Modeling

The IMAGE EUV imager observed a plasmaspheric density, trough in association with a geomagnetically active period on 24 May 2000. In EUV, this density, trough appears as an Archimedes spiral extending from Earth's shadow to approximately 1900 MLT. We present an analysis of this density trough using simulated EUV images, Observational EUV images are subjected to edge analysis to establish the plasmapause L-shell and the location of the density trough in terms of L-shell, MLT extent, and radial width. The plasmaspheric density distribution is modeled using both static and dynamic models for the plasmasphere. The background plasmasphere is then numerically simulated using the 4-parameter plasmaspheric density model contained within the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) and the Dynamic Global Core Plasma Model (DGCPM). Simulated EUV images of the model plasmasphere are produced once an artificial density, depletion, matching the observed MLT extent and width, has been removed. Once the azimuthal extent and width of the trough have been simulated, the depth of the artificial density depletion is iteratively adjusted to produce simulated EUV images that approximate observation. The results of this analysis and discussion of possible origins for this density trough will be presented.

Adrian, M. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.

Zhang, Wenwen↗
NASA NTRS1993

Attitude control with realization of linear error dynamics

An attitude control law is derived to realize linear unforced error dynamics with the attitude error defined in terms of rotation group algebra (rather than vector algebra). Euler parameters are used in the rotational dynamics model because they are globally nonsingular, but only the minimal three Euler parameters are used in the error dynamics model because they have no nonlinear mathematical constraints to prevent the realization of linear error dynamics. The control law is singular only when the attitude error angle is exactly pi rad about any eigenaxis, and a simple intuitive modification at the singularity allows the control law to be used globally. The forced error dynamics are nonlinear but stable. Numerical simulation tests show that the control law performs robustly for both initial attitude acquisition and attitude control.

Paielli, Russell A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Short-term variability of nitrogen dioxide in the winter stratosphere

Measurements of limb radiance from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) satellite are used to infer the NO2 density at the 10- and 16-mbar pressure levels from January 1 to March 31 of 1982. A photochemical-dynamical model is developed using the presently accepted chemistry of the NO(x) family. The dynamical model produces isentropic trajectories which simulate the history of air parcels. From the trajectories the photochemical model calculates NO2 densities, which are compared to those observed by SME. Although the model generally reproduces the spatial and temporal variations rather well, some disagreement was noted for conditions of exceptionally low temperatures. Further analysis indicates that the temperature sensitivity of the N2O5 photolysis cross sections may be overestimated at low temperatures.

Zawodny, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Northern Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Using Coupled Models and Remote Sensing

Forest ecosystem dynamics modeling, remote sensing data analysis, and a geographical information system (GIS) were used together to determine the possible growth and development of a northern forest in Maine, USA. Field measurements and airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were used to produce maps of forest cover type and above ground biomass. These forest attribute maps, along with a conventional soils map, were used to identify the initial conditions for forest ecosystem model simulations. Using this information along with ecosystem model results enabled the development of predictive maps of forest development. The results obtained were consistent with observed forest conditions and expected successional trajectories. The study demonstrated that ecosystem models might be used in a spatial context when parameterized and used with georeferenced data sets.

Ranson, K. J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation

In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗