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DOE OSTI2025

Completion document for MRT 8824 - Upgrade NIF’s gaseous radiochemistry diagnostics (RAGS) to support weapons science

This milestone highlights the successful upgrade and deployment of the Radiochemical Analysis of Gaseous Samples (RAGS) system, which delivers high-quality measurements (<20% uncertainty) of activated gaseous species from NIF implosions. These measurements are critical for supporting Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) relevant platforms, including LANL’s Double Shell and LLNL’s Pushered Single Shell campaigns. The RAGS diagnostic technique enables analysis of short-range mixing in implosions using high-Z shells, which are otherwise inaccessible to conventional x-ray diagnostic methods. By facilitating the investigation of high-Z material mixing into fusion burn, this system provides essential data for quantifying and interpreting results in high-energy density (HED) experiments. This report details the physics motivation, diagnostic fundamentals, planned and enacted upgrade work, and the quantification of uncertainty for the upgraded system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

GRC MILab Software: Quick Start Guide

This document provides detailed installation and operating instructions for the GRC MILab Excel Add-In software developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The software described has been implemented to facilitate the process of importing into Microsoft Excel and analyzing materials test data from a wide range of materials tests. All resulting data is then ready for automated upload to the relevant table of the GRC Materials Intelligence (MI) database. This new software represents an update to the original MILab software developed by Granta Design Ltd.—a company specializing in materials software, data, and databases—for members of the Materials Data Management Consortium (MDMC), a collaboration between Granta, ASM International, NASA Glenn, and several other materials-oriented corporations and government agencies in the aerospace and defense industries. The updated software consists of the addition of two test type modules, the Generic and Generic Cyclic modules, with both representing a generalization of the original software. The Generic module supports the import and analysis of multiaxial data from any sequence of tensile, compression, relaxation, and/or creep test stages; and the Generic Cyclic module expands the functionality to include repeated sequences during cyclic testing. During processing, all imported data and analysis results are formatted by the software so as to be ready for immediate automated upload to the MI database, ensuring minimal overhead on the part of the user and access to persistent and reliable data for all relevant personnel.

Quick Start Guide↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pits 101: The true meaning of deterrence

Mark Davis (ALDWP-COO) is the Chief Operation Officer for the Associate Laboratory Directorate of Weapons Production, where he focuses on ramping up operations in the Plutonium Facility in support of the directorate's programs, including the plutonium pit mission. Davis has had an accomplished career in the U.S. Navy that has compelled him to inspire those who support our nation's national security through sharing stories of our nation's history and the individuals who have been world-changers. He is passionate not only about our national security mission here at the Lab, but also about ensuring every employee understands that they play a key role in the mission, no matter their day job. In this special edition of the Pits 101 series, Public Affairs sat down with Davis to get his perspective on the meaning of credible and sustainable strategic deterrence, and why it matters today.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Attack Scenarios Relating to Army Facility-Related Control Systems: Quantifying the Cost to Secure and Cost Savings of the Army’s FRCS Program

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) analyzed the cyber-threat environment to U.S. Army facilities. This report describes three key factors in securing Army-owned facility-related control systems (FRCS). First, Section 1.0 provides background information about the project. Section 2.0 describes the various types of cyber-attacks. Section 3.0 provides a series of attack scenarios from real-world use cases are described in Section 3. These examples are relevant to the Army because the targeted systems or operating environments are like those used at Army installations. An estimated range for the cost to secure these systems is described in Section 4.0. Finally, the cost savings of preventing these kinds of attacks are described in Section 5.0.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electromagnetic Pulse – Resilient Electric Grid for National Security: Research Program Executive Summary

Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a three-year internally funded Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort to investigate the vulnerabilities and mitigations of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the electric power grid. The research was focused on understanding the vulnerabilities and potential mitigations for components and systems at the high voltage transmission level. Results from the research included a broad array of subtopics, covered in twenty-three reports and papers, and which are highlighted in this executive summary report. These subtopics include high altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) characterization, HEMP coupling analysis, system-wide effects, and mitigating technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Los Alamos Recapitalization Project Prioritization—Summary Using Generic Project Names

The purpose of this document is to provide a standard method of prioritizing proposals for NNSA’s NA-50 Office of Safety, Infrastructure, and Operations recapitalization projects under the auspices of the Los Alamos Weapons Infrastructure Program Office (WI-PO). The framework described here has the goal of providing a consistent method by which all proposals are ranked from a pre-determined set of criteria. The results of this study are not expected to be definitive but rather provide input for management decisions. The top-ranked projects can be pursued further to become the focus for an appropriate fiscal year NA-50 funding cycle. A recapitalization team of subject matter experts (SMEs) and managers used multi-attribute decision analysis to determine the top priority NA-50 projects for FY2022. Ratings of seven criteria against twelve projects were combined with four weighting perspectives to provide the final results.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Midwest Nuclear-based Net-Zero Carbon Steelmaking Demonstration

Globally, the iron and steel industry accounts for around a quarter of GHG emissions from the manufacturing sector , which is about 7% of the 33 gigatonnes (Gt) of global CO 2 emissions . Thus, globally, the steel industry is a 2-3 Gt CO 2 per year emissions challenge. The steel industry is important to the U.S. economy with output equal to $0.5 trillion and domestic production capacity is critical to national defense, infrastructure, energy production, and transportation. President Biden’s executive order on climate identifies actions and policies to put the Nation on a path to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050. To achieve this, deep carbon reductions in the power, transportation, buildings and capital-intensive industrial manufacturing segments such as steel, cement and chemicals need to be addressed. In its recent “Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System” report , the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) stated that, “while technology exists to decarbonize all parts of the energy system, some sectors remain at precommercial or first-of-a-kind demonstration stages and require significant improvement in cost and performance to become commercially viable.” The NAS goes on to state that these hard to decarbonize sectors include “aviation, shipping, and industrial subsectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals manufacturing .” The Administration has proposed a timeline to decarbonize energy, transportation and then industry and manufacturing. From a life-cycle approach, decarbonizing steel and other large industrial inputs are necessary to decarbonize transformations in energy and transportation. DOE’s TRI-Lab Consortium’s Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is a collaboration amongst DOE’s three applied energy laboratories: the National Energy Technology Laboratory; National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory. The IES approach looks at more tightly integrating low-carbon nuclear energy, renewable electricity, energy storage, load/demand balancing, and biomass (including plastics and other wastes) with one or more industrial processes that utilize heat and/or power from these clean and waste energy sources to produce a low-carbon commodity-scale product.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-term Moisture Adsorption in Packaged Plutonium Oxide

In 2018, the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE-NNSA) began implementing dilute and dispose to remove 34 metric tons (MT) of surplus weapons grade plutonium from the US stockpile. Under this plan, surplus plutonium material is converted into plutonium oxide (PuO 2 ) before being stored in metal containers and sent to the DOE Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The dilute and dispose project was implemented as a more cost-effective method for abiding by the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA) between the USA and Russia, as compared to producing mixed oxide fuel (MOX). The PMDA was originally signed in 2000 and amended in 2010.2 The disassembly of pits and conversion to PuO 2 as part of dilute and dispose is carried out through the Advanced Recovery and Integrated Extraction System (ARIES) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The dilute portion of dilute and dispose is carried out at Savannah River Site (SRS). With this program in place, it is necessary to ensure the safe, long-term storage of the PuO 2 generated during this process until final disposal at WIPP is accomplished.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI) Knowledge Base Tool: Use Case Review and Future Functionality and Content Direction

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small satellite missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at https://s3vi.ndc.nasa.gov/ssri-kb/. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small satellite missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months, significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content, an Application Programming Interface (API), improved user interfaces, new interfaces for crowdsourcing of content and user ratings, and custom website analytics to inform future development. This presentation and paper will discuss the motivation for the SSRI Knowledge Base, review educational use case(s), and outline plans for further development. The 2022 session topic that best fits the abstract (select only one): Coordinating Successful Educational Programs

Small Spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2013

US Rocket Propulsion Industrial Base Health Metrics

The number of active liquid rocket engine and solid rocket motor development programs has severely declined since the "space race" of the 1950s and 1960s center dot This downward trend has been exacerbated by the retirement of the Space Shuttle, transition from the Constellation Program to the Space launch System (SLS) and similar activity in DoD programs center dot In addition with consolidation in the industry, the rocket propulsion industrial base is under stress. To Improve the "health" of the RPIB, we need to understand - The current condition of the RPIB - How this compares to past history - The trend of RPIB health center dot This drives the need for a concise set of "metrics" - Analogous to the basic data a physician uses to determine the state of health of his patients - Easy to measure and collect - The trend is often more useful than the actual data point - Can be used to focus on problem areas and develop preventative measures The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector. The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector.

Doreswamy, Rajiv↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Security Programs - Cyber: MMAREJBLIGE – Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulation for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations - 23-0644

Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulations for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations (MMAREJBLIGE) introduces an agent-based modeling framework into real-time cyber-physical emulation to achieve a context-aware environment that introduces operator/attacker/external-condition variability to improve emulation fidelity and testing rigor. We detail our agent framework design, internal communication via message passing, and time synchronization, as well as the individual components of the system. We include a brief analysis of several scenarios run on a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop, Industrial Control Systems (ICS) test-bed which include normal operation, physical disruption, disruption with mitigation, and disruption with mitigation during a cyber denial-of-service (DOS) attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sandia National Laboratories Ecosystem for Open Science: Metadata Schema v0.2 Description.

The Ecosystem for Open Science (eOS) initiative was established in 2019. Its objective is improving openness and sharing of data and information across Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN) Research and Development (R&D) activities. To support this initiative, the eOS team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) developed metadata and data standards and proposed a machine-readable metadata schema. The nuclear explosion monitoring field was selected as a focus area due to its the wide range of pertinent phenomenologies.We developed the DCAT-eOS-AP metadata schema extending the Data Catalog Vocabulary version 2 (DCATv2) standard using an application profile (AP), to fit the needs of multi-disciplinary NA-22 projects. The DCAT-eOS-AP metadata schema describes data at different levels of granularity ranging from general descriptions to more domain-specific granular metadata. Its implementation and serialization is flexible with the ability to include new file or data types. Thus, it will scale with the ever-increasing data management needs of government research. Due to the multitude of phenomenologies represented in the DCAT-eOS-AP schema, we anticipate that it will be easily extensible to various projects across many DOE mission areas. This document describes data management challenges faced within the DNN R&D portfolio and provides insight on how metadata and data standards/guidelines combined with a comprehensive metadata schema can add value to programs throughout the Department of Energy (DOE). It reviews the importance of metadata standards, FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) data principles, and metadata schemas. Additionally, it summarizes input from subject matter experts (SME) at SNL and other National Laboratories that resulted in metadata and data standards/guidelines encompassing domains relevant to NA-22 projects. Finally, we discuss the DCAT-eOS-AP metadata development. Implementation recommendations and future development directions are included for those keen on adopting the DCAT-eOS-AP metadata schema.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
NASA NTRS2023

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (recently separated into the new Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and Space Operations Mission Directorate). The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) provides strategic advice, supported by independent assessments and rigorous analysis, to inform NASA senior leadership on key areas to align mission and agency-level activities. OTPS serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy at the agency to enable future missions. Specifically, OTPS coordinates and uses inputs from a broad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OTPS develops and maintains the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OTPS has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OTPS as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRS2012

Finding Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) Destinations for Human Exploration: Implications for Astrobiology

The current number of known potential NEA targets for HSF is limited to those objects whose orbital characteristics are similar to that of the Earth. This is due to the projected capabilities of the exploration systems currently under consideration and development at NASA. However, NEAs with such orbital characteristics often have viewing geometries that place them at low solar elongations and thus are difficult to detect from the vicinity of Earth. While ongoing ground-based surveys and data archives maintained by the NEO Program Observation Program Office and the Minor Planet Center (MPC) have provided a solid basis upon which to build, a more complete catalog of the NEO population is required to inform a robust and sustainable HSF exploration program. Since all the present NEO observing assets are currently confined to the vicinity of the Earth, additional effort must be made to provide capabilities for detection of additional HSF targets via assets beyond Earth orbit. A space-based NEO survey telescope located beyond the vicinity of the Earth, has considerable implications for planetary science and astrobiology. Such a telescope will provide foundational knowledge of our Solar System small body population and detect targets of interest for both the HSF and scientific communities. Data from this asset will yield basic characterization data on the NEOs observed (i.e., albedo, size determination, potential for volatiles and organics, etc.) and help down select targets for future HSF missions. Ideally, the most attractive targets from both HSF and astrobiology perspectives are those NEAs that may contain organic and volatile materials, and which could be effectively sampled at a variety of locations and depths. Presented here is an overview of four space-based survey concepts; any one of which after just a few years of operation will discover many highly accessible NEO targets suitable for robotic and human exploration. Such a space-based survey mission will reveal incredible returns for several disciplines including: exploration, in situ resource utilization, planetary defense, and science. Of particular, interest to the scientific

Landis, Rob↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Based Resilience Enhancement Strategies for Electric-Gas Systems Against Sequential Extreme Weather Events

Some extreme weather events, such as the hurricane, pass through an area sequentially and thus are called sequential extreme weather events (SEWEs). This paper proposes a data-based robust optimization (RO) model to enhance the resilience of the integrated electricity and gas system (IEGS) against SEWEs. Specifically, the SEWE strikes the IEGS sequentially. After each attack, the system state is adjusted immediately to minimize the maximized expected system cost caused by the SEWE. The attack-defense procedures are repeated alternatively during the SEWE. Preventive measures, hardening, are made in advance to reduce the impact of sequential attacks. The entire process is formulated as a multi-period RO model. Furthermore, it is proved that the most effective resilience enhancement strategies for this model are the same as those for a two-stage RO model, which can be solved by the nested column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. In addition, the property of SEWEs, sequentially endangering limited regions of the IEGS, is incorporated to build a data-based uncertainty set and reduce its conservativeness. Simulation results on two IEGSs validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Next Generation System Analysis Model: Capabilities for Simulating a Waste Management System - 19131

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition's Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program is applying integrated waste management system architecture analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform potential future decisions regarding potential nuclear waste management system architectures. Architecture analyses of the IWMS are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive system for managing nuclear waste that considers all major aspects of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The system architecture analyses consider alternative disposition pathways for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) being stored dry in at-reactor Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations (ISFSIs) or wet in spent-fuel pools. One method for evaluating these alternatives is simulating the movement of SNF throughout the system components. Successfully simulating a system on the scale of a national waste management system requires - accurate baseline information (e.g., historic fuel discharges from reactors and dry storage loadings at reactor sites), - modeling all logistic interactions between components of the proposed system, and - tracking and reporting all relevant details regarding the simulation's execution. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool designed for the express purpose of modeling the IWMS. It is based on the Performance Analysis Tool, a simulation platform that has been used to model logistics for the Department of Defense and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Using existing, government-owned software allows NGSAM developers to modify the software at the level of source code and to develop flexible usability and modeling solutions for developing and running simulations of the IWMS. NGSAM imports data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Unified Database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that the simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the United States. NGSAM is designed with the flexibility to model and track the behavior of virtually any IWMS architecture assumptions or design considerations. For example, NGSAM can model multiple interim storage facilities or repositories or none at all. Similarly, all assumptions regarding shipment schedules, operating schedules, and reactor operation assumptions can be modeled and adjusted in NGSAM with relative ease. The development of NGSAM was targeted to waste management system analysts as the primary users. With that in mind, analysts from ORNL, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) were intimately involved in the development process. That involvement extended beyond merely defining requirements. System analysts have been involved with design decisions and software benchmarking and tests, and they have provided subject-matter expertise where necessary. The result is a high degree of interaction between professional software developers and system analysts, with a multitude of benefits to both groups. This paper explores some of the underlying methodology of the agile software development process used in the creation of NGSAM. It illustrates the capabilities of NGSAM. Some example use cases are discussed as well, with relevant results providing context for how NGSAM is used by system analysts to gain a greater understanding of alternative waste management system architectures. This is a technical paper that does not take into account the contractual limitations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). Under the provisions of the Standard Contract, DOE does not consider spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters to be an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed-to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract provisions prevail. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reporting the Radionuclide Inventory of the DWPF Product

In the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the radionuclides contained in the liquid high-level waste currently stored at SRS are being converted into a durable borosilicate glass. This glass in its sealed stainless-steel canister, the DWPF product, eventually must be sent to a federal repository for final disposal. In order to ensure that the DWPF product is suitable for acceptance by the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS)*, the DOE Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) established the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications for Vitrified High-Level Waste Forms (WAPS). DOE-EM is tentatively performing surrogate CRWMS waste acceptance functions, as the office was eliminated in 2009, for review and concurrence of technical baseline documents and waste form non conformances. The specifications are divided into five sections, dealing with the waste form (borosilicate glass) itself, the canister, the canistered waste form, quality assurance, and documentation and other administrative requirements. The DWPF is required to document its compliance with the specifications in the Waste Form Compliance Plan (WCP), the Waste Form Qualification Report (WQR), the Production Records, and the Storage and Shipping Records. The WCP provides general information about the DWPF process and product, and a general description of the methods and programs by which the DWPF will demonstrate compliance with each specification in the WAPS. The WCP was vital to DWPF startup with respect to operations planning and also assurance to DOE that the canistered waste forms would be acceptable for disposal at any future High-Level Waste (HLW) geologic repository. The WQR is a compilation of the results of the testing and analysis programs identified in the WCP. The WQR details the method of compliance with each specification, and the testing performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of each method. The WQR is published in separate volumes which each correspond to one or more of the specifications. The WQR also contains a description of the DWPF’s Glass Product Control Program. Each volume contains Part and Item designators which indicate the corresponding item(s) in the WCP. The Production Records, and the Storage and Shipping Records document that each DWPF product has been produced and stored in compliance with the WAPS. This document, Volume 4 of the WQR, responds to WAPS Specifications 1.2.2, 1.6, and 3.14 which require that the DWPF report the radionuclide inventory of each canistered waste form, and of each waste type. This volume describes the systems the DWPF uses to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of the glass product, and provides evidence that these systems allow the DWPF to satisfy the WAPS specification. This volume of the WQR has been prepared to establish that methods are available to determine and report the radionuclide inventory, and that the DWPF is ready to collect the facility-specific data necessary to provide definitive estimates of the errors associated with the use of these methods.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗