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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Optimization Approach to Support Science Decision Making for Lunar Surface Exploration

Introduction: Scientific exploration is one of the three pillars of NASA’s Moon2Mars architecture, with crew surface extra vehicular activities (EVA) serving a critical enabling function. Development of surface EVA operational planning and execution, specifically integrating science and flight control teams (FCT), is currently being explored through analog scenarios. This integration, exercised, for example, through the Joint EVA and Hu-man Surface Mobility Test Team (JETT), allows for science input on EVA activities in near real-time through a Science Evaluation Room (SER), or Arte-mis science backroom, which integrates with the broader FCT through the Science Officer. The SER works within the FCT to support dynamic EVA planning in response to changes in operational constraints as well as science opportunities and re-prioritization, increasing the mission science return and accelerating the accomplishment of the Moon2Mars science objectives. The SER works within the FCT to provide recommendations to traverse execution in near real-time. One challenge is the requirement to deliver SER inputs to the FCT on operationally relevant timelines. Failure to do so may result in suboptimal execution of science exploration EVAs or even loss of key science objectives. To close this gap, we present a network optimization tool to allow the SER to provide rapid input to the FCT in response to changes in operational constraints or science opportunities. Inputs are predicated on approved science objectives, and clear rationale must be provided to the FCT for any requested change. Accordingly, this tool incorporates the Science Traceability Matrix (STM), SER prioritization scheme, and station characterization and action planning with operational constraints such as duration, traverse speed, and distance to maximize science objectives based on SER priorities, consistent with FCT operational requirements. Method: As a proof of concept, we used an existing linear programing software package used to simulate optimal routes through cellular metabolism. We built a Demonstrative Model with three STM objectives and four stations on a region of the Moon. The objectives were given an arbitrary prioritization and mapped to the stations through four possible crew actions. (Figs. 1 and 2). This station to STM mapping is consistent with the method used by the JETT5 Science Team to develop analog surface EVA science planning. We used a grid system with the landing site at the origin and the four stations placed across the positive x,y quadrant. Actions were assigned to each station and the accomplishment of those actions resulted in a numerical “reward” based on the ability of that action to achieve science objectives. The aggregate reward from each individual STM objective contributes to a global score (Science Yield), weighted by its priority. Operational constraints included a requirement to start and end at the landing site, 5 minutes each for initial station characterization and “clean up,” and variable total EVA time, traverse rate (fixed to 0.5 meters per second in our example), and time to perform each action (10, 5, 7, and 15 min for actions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively). Additional constraints and variables will be added in the future (e.g., sample mass, number of stations, traverse route constraints, illumination). Optimization. We converted the connections (arcs) between these stations (nodes) into a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem (arcs = constraints, nodes = variables) with the objective to maximize Science Yield. For any action, the Science Yield is equal to the relevance of that action to an STM objective [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low relevance, respectively], multiplied by the STM Objective Priority [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low priority, respectively]. This resulted in a model that computes the optimal station and action combination to maximize the Science Yield. These weightings can be adjusted by the SER as desired. Results: We explored three test cases for the Demonstrative Model. First, we set the maximum EVA duration to 120 minutes and computed the optimal route (Fig. 3A). The model suggested per-forming Actions 1 and 2 at Station P01, followed by Actions 1 and 2 at Station P02, and finally Actions 1 and 3 at Station P04 before returning to the Landing Site. Second, we adjusted the STM Objective Priori-ty order and computed the new optimal route (Fig. 3B). Under this situation, the model suggested per-forming all Actions at Station P02 followed by all Actions at Station P03. The previous test cases were relevant to SER planning activities. Next, we explored providing mid-EVA replanning input to the FCT. Scenario: While executing the Route in Fig. 3A the crew finishes at Station P01 and FCT decides that the EVA needs to finish in 45 minutes back at the Landing Site. FCT asks SER to recommend changes to the plan to accommodate this operation-al change. Using the model and incorporating these new constraints (start at Station P01, max. time of 45 min), the model suggested performing Actions 2 and 4 at Station P03 (Fig. 4), requiring 41 minutes to complete and return to the Landing Site. Interestingly, Station 3 was not part of the original route. Using the model, we determined the EVA would need 66 minutes, instead of 45, in order for the original Station P04 to yield a larger Science Yield than Station P03. The parametrization and simulation was per-formed in less than a minute, demonstrating the operational relevance of the approach. Future Efforts: The results from the Demonstrative Model suggest this tool can accelerate SER decision making on operationally relevant timelines. Use in analog activities, such as JETT5 or follow-ons, which have over a dozen stations for a crew to explore and over a dozen actions per station, will provide needed validation of the utility of this tool for planning EVAs, replanning mid-EVA, or planning follow-on EVAs based on previous results. Further integration with FCT execution monitoring tools may provide additional efficiency gains, al-lowing rapid and iterative exploration of operation-al and science decision space by the FCT and SER.

Science Operations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design, Development and Testing Plan for Energy Efficiency Algorithms Related to Building-Integrated Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems

Building-integrated cooling, heating and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. It is estimated that the total CHP technical potential in the commercial building sector is approximately 76 GW, but only a small fraction of it is actually deployed. Advanced control and monitoring systems that realize the full potential of these CHP systems can transform this capacity into an asset for both the owner and the grid and also accelerate the adoption of these systems in the building sector. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. It has been demonstrated by several studies that as much as 30% of building energy use is wasted. Much of the waste results from the inability to anticipate load variations (design day vs. non-design day operations; diurnal variation of loads), identify improper operation, and efficiently operate, control and maintain building systems. Moreover, many buildings, even those with adequate control infrastructure, lack knowledgeable staff to operate and maintain energy systems. Operators of buildings with CHP systems will constantly need to make tradeoffs (economic dispatch) between onsite power generation and purchasing power, between onsite heat production from distributed generation versus heating/cooling from conventional systems, and different passive and active load management measures. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of a clean, efficient, reliable and affordable next-generation integrated energy systems. This report lists the components for which PM, real-time CxV and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and easy of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in savings reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Implementation Plan for Combined Heat and Power Systems VOLTTRON Controller: Performance Monitoring and Real-Time Commissioning Algorithm Verification

Building-integrated cooling, heating, and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of clean, efficient, reliable, and affordable next-generation integrated energy system. Previous report listed the components for which PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and the metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and their ease of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in a reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20% (for both CHP and conventional building systems). This report builds upon the previous report by detailing the process by which PNNL will implement performance monitoring and real-time commissioning algorithms for CHP systems in conjunction with the use of the VOLTTRON CHP economic dispatch agent in host facilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2007

Automated Diagnosis and Control of Complex Systems

Livingstone2 is a reusable, artificial intelligence (AI) software system designed to assist spacecraft, life support systems, chemical plants, or other complex systems by operating with minimal human supervision, even in the face of hardware failures or unexpected events. The software diagnoses the current state of the spacecraft or other system, and recommends commands or repair actions that will allow the system to continue operation. Livingstone2 is an enhancement of the Livingstone diagnosis system that was flight-tested onboard the Deep Space One spacecraft in 1999. This version tracks multiple diagnostic hypotheses, rather than just a single hypothesis as in the previous version. It is also able to revise diagnostic decisions made in the past when additional observations become available. In such cases, Livingstone might arrive at an incorrect hypothesis. Re-architecting and re-implementing the system in C++ has increased performance. Usability has been improved by creating a set of development tools that is closely integrated with the Livingstone2 engine. In addition to the core diagnosis engine, Livingstone2 includes a compiler that translates diagnostic models written in a Java-like language into Livingstone2's language, and a broad set of graphical tools for model development.

Kurien, James↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiphase Simulations of the SLS Launch Environment

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), which will send astronauts back to the Moon in the next few years, is powered by four RS-25 engines and two RSRMV solid rocket boosters (SRBs). During launch the SLS propulsion system generates intense acoustics and other powerful waves, such as ignition overpressure (IOP) which, if unmitigated, have the potential to damage the vehicle and possibly cause loss of mission or crew. To protect the vehicle from these powerful waves, the SLS launch pad design includes an ignition overpressure/sound suppression (IOP/SS) system which sprays 270,000 gallons per minute of water very close to the SRB and RS-25 nozzles. The SRB and RS-25 engine plumes, and the proximity of the IOP/SS water, create a complex multiphase (gas and liquid) environment during the SLS ignition sequence. The interplay among these systems creates challenges related to water spray into/onto engine nozzles, potential debris transport, and additional transient loads due to strong plume-water interactions - all of which the SLS vehicle must be able to withstand. Prior to the Artemis I launch, the SLS multiphase liftoff environment was largely unknown due to differences from the Space Shuttle and other programs. Some data was available from tests of individual systems, but no integrated testing or analysis was available. Even post-launch analysis of Artemis I cannot provide a full understanding of the complex physics involved due to limited (or obstructed) camera views and instrumentation. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used to investigate the details of the multiphase environment which could not be measured, help comprehend the data gathered from the launch, and ultimately identify phenomena that are a concern for future flights. Project Details Engineers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have executed simulations using the Loci/STREAM-Volume of Fluid (VoF) multiphase CFD solver to understand this environment. Initial efforts successfully validated the CFD solver on various tests, giving confidence to simulate the SLS multiphase liftoff environment prior to the Artemis I launch. The CFD simulation of the SLS ignition sequence was conducted in three phases. First the IOP/SS water system was simulated for approximately 6 seconds to reach a quasi-steady state. Next, the RS-25 engine plumes were activated and held at full power for 1 second. Lastly, the SRB booster was activated and the simulation was carried out until just prior to vehicle motion. This simulation process mimics the conditions that exist at launch. Results and Impact The SLS ignition sequence simulation results provide deep understanding of the underlying physics occuring during launch. Observations from the simulation include reduction of water splashing into/onto the engine nozzles, change in angling of the dense water sheets, and the origin of the powerful ignition overpressure (IOP) wave. These observations directly inform the SLS program on subjects including plume-water induced side loads, debris transport, and the acoustic launch environment. Additionally, with post launch comparison of CFD observations to flight data, these tools can be applied to launch vehicles and environments other than SLS with confidence. Why HPC Matters The SLS ignition sequence CFD simulations are conducted on meshes up to hundreds of millions of cells on thousands of processors for weeks at a time. These simulations generate terabytes of data that must also be stored and archived for future use on HPC systems. Simply put, the CFD simulations would not be possible without NASA HPC resources. What’s Next Comparisons between the Artemis I flight data and the CFD simulations will be continued to both improve confidence in the CFD results and provide deeper understanding into the SLS multiphase launch environment. This will be used to provide insight for decision making for the first manned SLS flight, Artemis II. Future simulations will target new configurations of the SLS IOP/SS water required to support the more powerful variants of the SLS vehicle, such as Block 1B. Additionally, this capability provides NASA the ability to investigate launch environments for vehicles other than SLS to support other missions.

Travis Rivord↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoNEX: A Geostationary Earth Observatory

The latest generation of geostationary satellites (Himawari 8/9, GOES-16/17, FY-4, GK-2A) carries sensors that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of widely used polar-orbiting, global monitoring sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS. When combined, data from various currently operating/planned geostationary platforms provide a geo-ring of hyper-temporal (5-10 minutes), multispectral observations at spatial resolutions as high as 500 m. These high frequency observations offer exciting new possibilities for monitoring our planet, including better retrievals of geophysical variables by overcoming cloud cover, enabling studies of diurnally varying phenomena in the atmosphere, land, and the oceans, and support operational decision-making in agriculture, hydrology and disaster management. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) team, in collaboration with scientists from JAXA, KARI, NOAA and other international institutions, created the GeoNEX (www.nasa.gov/geonex) pipeline to integrate data from all available geostationary platforms and produce and distribute spatially, temporally, and radiometrically consistent data for the earth science community. We envision various institutions adapting the Geo component (e.g., GeoNOAA, GeoKARI, GeoChiba, GeoJAXA, GeoCMA) and customizing the pipeline and downstream products to serve the local/regional research and applied science communities. To facilitate collaborative work among the partners, we have established the OpenNEX platform on the public cloud. OpenNEX provides researchers, developers, educators, and ordinary users with easy access to an integrated Earth science computational and data platform, enabling citizen scientists and application developers to realize the full value of GeoNEX data assets and software tools.

GeoNEX↗

DOE OSTI2025

DeepLynx Ecosystem 2025

Poor data integration and governance continue to plague complex engineering projects, resulting in missed cost, schedule, and performance targets. Departments operate in isolated systems with manual data exchange, creating fragmented information that compounds errors and leads to significant delays and cost overruns. The DeepLynx ecosystem addresses these challenges through an open-source, modular data management platform that transforms fragmented project data into an integrated digital thread. Built on a federated microservice architecture, the ecosystem comprises seven specialized tools centered around DeepLynx Nexus, a unified data catalog with hierarchical organization and graph-based navigation capabilities. The ecosystem includes: DeepLynx Stream for real-time timeseries data ingestion from industrial sources; DeepLynx Ingest for governed data uploads with formal review workflows; DeepLynx Lattice for ontology-based entity and relationship extraction; DeepLynx Run for workflow orchestration and secure AI/ML compute; DeepLynx Visualize for 3D digital twin visualization; and DeepLynx Insight for AI-assisted document analysis with traceable, grounded responses. Deployable in cloud, on-premise, or hybrid environments using containerized Docker applications and Helm charts, the DeepLynx ecosystem provides flexible infrastructure that adapts to organizational requirements. By consolidating project data into a unified data lake with role-based access controls and OAuth2 authentication, DeepLynx enables digital thread and digital twin capabilities that improve decision-making, reduce risk, and support complex engineering workflows throughout the project lifecycle.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2020

Remote monitoring of agricultural systems using NDVI time series and machine learning methods: a tool for an adaptive agricultural policy

This study aims to provide accurate information about changes in agricultural systems (AS) using phenological metrics derived from the NDVI time series. Use of such information could help land managers optimize land use choices and monitor the status of agricultural lands, under a variety of environmental and socioeconomic conditions. For this purpose, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data were used to derive phenological metrics over the Oum Er-Rbia basin (central Morocco). Random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifiers were explored and compared on their ability to classify AS classes over the study area. Four main AS classes have been considered: (1) irrigated annual crop (IAC), (2) irrigated perennial crop (IPC), (3) rainfed area (RA), and (4) fallow (FA). By comparing the accuracy of the three classifiers, the RF method showed the best performance with an overall accuracy of 0.97 and kappa coefficient of 0.96.The RF method was then chosen to examine time variations in AS over a 16-year period (2000–2016). The AS main variations were detected and evaluated for the four AS classes. These variations have been found to be linked well with other indicators of local agricultural land management, as well as the historical agricultural drought changes over the study area. Overall, the results present a tool for decision makers to improve agricultural management and provide a different perspective in understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural systems.

Youssef Lebrini↗

NASA NTRS1994

Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation

Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support enroute flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.

Layton, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2023

Hybrid CFD Engineering Model of Plume Induced Erosion and Crater Formation During Descent of Lunar Landers

With rapidly increased worldwide interest in landing on the moon, the issue of Plume Surface Interactions (PSI) is gaining attention. Hazards posed by lander plume induced dust and debris, as well as landing site deformation can be mitigated when better understood through predictive simulations. As simulation enabling computational power continues to increase, hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)/Engineering models provide the immediate ability to conduct parametric/trade studies driving design decisions for landers. Reduced order erosion engineering models apply correlations of the surface erosion rate to the plume induced surface forces with the correlations anchored to flight observations from Apollo LM landings. The MSFC propulsion fluid dynamics branch has developed such a hybrid model for predicting the plume induced viscous erosive regression of the Lunar surface beneath a landing vehicle. The (Descent Interpolated Gas Granular Erosion Model) DIGGEM was originally implemented as a post processing tool to calculate induced erosion rates through vehicle descent using CFD solutions of the vehicle plume at several fixed altitudes. This capability has since been advanced in the Loci/Chem-DIGGEM model to allow transient, moving vehicle, fully coupled viscous erosion modeling of vehicle descent PSI. This model has recently been used to make preflight predictions of the erosive regression of the ground beneath a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) vehicle in support of measurements to be made by the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies (SCALPSS) instrument.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2023

Hybrid CFD Engineering Model of Plume Induced Erosion and Crater Formation During Descent of Lunar Landers

Plume Surface Interaction↗

NASA NTRS2018

Playbook for UAS: UX of Goal-Oriented Planning & Execution

We are evaluating the tool Playbook, a mission planning and scheduling tool used for analog missions and research experiments at NASA. We are adapting Playbook to support an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) demonstration that will simulate a "search and recover" mission. To support this demonstration, we need to test this software and its usability with human subjects. Playbook will be used to plan, edit, and monitor simulated UAV swarms, and we are interested in evaluating these capabilities. Allocation of roles and responsibilities between human-automation systems is key to promoting productive cooperation between these two agents. When guiding swarms the user should not be concerned with moving waypoints, adjusting heading and altitude or any other small actions that traditional pilots control. Providing situational awareness through sensor data including radar, heat, live camera feed, and topographic information are key when managing multiple UAVs together. First responders need a good picture of disaster areas in order to make informed decisions. These sensors can initiate movements in the mission that indicate when the human should take control of single aircraft.

UAV swarms↗

DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing Condorcet Methods to Improve Decision-making Based on Ranked Data

Decision-makers must often choose between multiple alternatives based on their relative merits across a variety of criteria. These multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems must be approached in an objective, measurable, and transparent fashion to obtain well-supported outcomes. The challenge of using sets of ranked data to identify the optimal choice is not unlike the challenge of using ranked ballots to identify the winner of an election in a preference voting system. As such, the methods of rank aggregation used in elections can be applied to help resolve MCDM problems. Previous research into the design of elections and ballots has yielded many algorithms with well-understood properties. A subset of these, called Condorcet methods, reliably identify the “Condorcet winner,” if it exists, giving the result that would defeat any other in a pairwise comparison. That, in addition to several other desirable qualities, makes Condorcet methods like the Schulze method, Ranked Pairs, and Copeland’s method, effective and scalable means for tackling MCDM problems. These rank aggregation methods have been implemented in JavaScript functions for incorporation into a web-based MCDM decision tool. These algorithms can be applied in a wide variety of contexts (for example, determining the “best” environmental remediation method or selecting a subcontractor) to facilitate effective decision-making. The performance of the JavaScript Condorcet prototype tool was compared across the implemented algorithms and with both a non-Condorcet rank aggregation method as well as an implementation of the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) algorithm.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Reactive system verification case study: Fault-tolerant transputer communication

A reactive program is one which engages in an ongoing interaction with its environment. A system which is controlled by an embedded reactive program is called a reactive system. Examples of reactive systems are aircraft flight management systems, bank automatic teller machine (ATM) networks, airline reservation systems, and computer operating systems. Reactive systems are often naturally modeled (for logical design purposes) as a composition of autonomous processes which progress concurrently and which communicate to share information and/or to coordinate activities. Formal (i.e., mathematical) frameworks for system verification are tools used to increase the users' confidence that a system design satisfies its specification. A framework for reactive system verification includes formal languages for system modeling and for behavior specification and decision procedures and/or proof-systems for verifying that the system model satisfies the system specifications. Using the Ostroff framework for reactive system verification, an approach to achieving fault-tolerant communication between transputers was shown to be effective. The key components of the design, the decoupler processes, may be viewed as discrete-event-controllers introduced to constrain system behavior such that system specifications are satisfied. The Ostroff framework was also effective. The expressiveness of the modeling language permitted construction of a faithful model of the transputer network. The relevant specifications were readily expressed in the specification language. The set of decision procedures provided was adequate to verify the specifications of interest. The need for improved support for system behavior visualization is emphasized.

Crane, D. Francis↗

NASA NTRS1994

Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation

Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support en-route flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.

Layton, Charles↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗