Results for “Decision making” — Page 58

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery to Implement the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region and can be used to determine the life span of the marsh. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR), developed by researchers at USGS, is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center to apply the UVVR method within Google Earth Engine. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from clustering and manual interpretation of National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. NAIP derived UVVR was aggregated to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) resolution and projection. A Random Forest Regression between Landsat derived data and UVVR was modeled to estimate a potential relationship. The estimation of this relationship was used to produce temporal change analysis maps of salt marsh vulnerability back to 1984. The NAIP imagery processed through Google Earth Engine allowed us to make detailed UVVR maps for 2009, 2015, 2017, and 2019 for decision making within South Carolina. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh regions and easily calculate marsh vulnerability without external data downloading. These results were used to understand what areas of the marsh need most resource allocation in the future.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. Crew members operating independently during long duration space exploration missions will require a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to increase autonomy by augmenting their knowledge, skills and abilities in different scenarios. Significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities are needed to increase crew autonomy and self-reliance in decision making and task performance. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. Clinical decision support (CDS) presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. A comprehensive crew health and performance CDSS is required to augment crew capability and will be used in different scenarios for several reasons. In general, the CDSS’s role is to assist the crew in prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of crew health and performance related conditions that may arise in exploration spaceflight. For example, CDSS would assist a high acuity scenario such as a heart attack by supplying clear instructions, vital signs and treatment reminders. A lower severity scenario such as kidney stone risk could interface to vehicle systems and display more complex predictive data during a diagnosis. A CDSS needs to contribute to successful missions by maintaining a high performing crew who can potentially exhibit countless medical conditions related to derangements from the space environment (sleep, cognition, nutrition and exercise) as well as conditions intrinsic to humans anywhere. While supporting the crew’s ability to make sound clinical decisions is desirable in any mission, it is essential for exploration missions with significant communication delays, no evacuation capability, and extended exposure to the flight environment. Such missions correspond with medical Level of Care V (LOC V), the highest level specified in NASA-STD-3001. The project focuses on CDS implementation research to derive requirements for LOC V, where the need for increased autonomy results in new practices and the inclusion of non-clinical data, such as vehicle environmental measures and physical exercise results, from other human and vehicle domains and advanced analytics. The CDS project describes how the CDSS is intended to be used by defining concepts of operations (ConOps). The process to derive ConOps focuses on increased autonomy that reduces the likelihood and consequences of accepted medical conditions. These crew health and performance inputs are grouped by common datasets and analysis models. Use cases are derived to research new clinical scenarios, architectural development and workflows. Implementation research is conducted with protypes to inform assumptions and derive requirements. The project also establishes how externally developed analysis and approaches can be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be globally developed with collaborators. This presentation will cover example scenarios from the CDS ConOps and the method to derive them. One example scenario will be CDSS alerting an increased kidney stone risk during a mission, with diagnosis and treatment options provided during the intervention.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. Crew members operating independently during long duration space exploration missions will require a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to increase autonomy by augmenting their knowledge, skills and abilities in different scenarios. Significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities are needed to increase crew autonomy and self-reliance in decision making and task performance. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. Clinical decision support (CDS) presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. A comprehensive crew health and performance CDSS is required to augment crew capability and will be used in different scenarios for several reasons. In general, the CDSS’s role is to assist the crew in prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of crew health and performance related conditions that may arise in exploration spaceflight. For example, CDSS would assist a high acuity scenario such as a heart attack by supplying clear instructions, vital signs and treatment reminders. A lower severity scenario such as kidney stone risk could interface to vehicle systems and display more complex predictive data during a diagnosis. A CDSS needs to contribute to successful missions by maintaining a high performing crew who can potentially exhibit countless medical conditions related to derangements from the space environment (sleep, cognition, nutrition and exercise) as well as conditions intrinsic to humans anywhere. While supporting the crew’s ability to make sound clinical decisions is desirable in any mission, it is essential for exploration missions with significant communication delays, no evacuation capability, and extended exposure to the flight environment. Such missions correspond with medical Level of Care V (LOC V), the highest level specified in NASA-STD-3001. The project focuses on CDS implementation research to derive requirements for LOC V, where the need for increased autonomy results in new practices and the inclusion of non-clinical data, such as vehicle environmental measures and physical exercise results, from other human and vehicle domains and advanced analytics. The CDS project describes how the CDSS is intended to be used by defining concepts of operations (ConOps). The process to derive ConOps focuses on increased autonomy that reduces the likelihood and consequences of accepted medical conditions. These crew health and performance inputs are grouped by common datasets and analysis models. Use cases are derived to research new clinical scenarios, architectural development and workflows. Implementation research is conducted with protypes to inform assumptions and derive requirements. The project also establishes how externally developed analysis and approaches can be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be globally developed with collaborators. This presentation will cover example scenarios from the CDS ConOps and the method to derive them. One example scenario will be CDSS alerting an increased kidney stone risk during a mission, with diagnosis and treatment options provided during the intervention.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Climate-change impacts↗

NASA NTRS1981

Sequential decision rules for failure detection

The formulation of the decision making of a failure detection process as a Bayes sequential decision problem (BSDP) provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Baysian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is a useful one.

Chow, E. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Automatic rule generation for high-level vision

A new fuzzy set based technique that was developed for decision making is discussed. It is a method to generate fuzzy decision rules automatically for image analysis. This paper proposes a method to generate rule-based approaches to solve problems such as autonomous navigation and image understanding automatically from training data. The proposed method is also capable of filtering out irrelevant features and criteria from the rules.

Rhee, Frank Chung-Hoon↗

NASA NTRS2001

Facility Monitoring: A Qualitative Theory for Sensor Fusion

Data fusion and sensor management approaches have largely been implemented with centralized and hierarchical architectures. Numerical and statistical methods are the most common data fusion methods found in these systems. Given the proliferation and low cost of processing power, there is now an emphasis on designing distributed and decentralized systems. These systems use analytical/quantitative techniques or qualitative reasoning methods for date fusion.Based on other work by the author, a sensor may be treated as a highly autonomous (decentralized) unit. Each highly autonomous sensor (HAS) is capable of extracting qualitative behaviours from its data. For example, it detects spikes, disturbances, noise levels, off-limit excursions, step changes, drift, and other typical measured trends. In this context, this paper describes a distributed sensor fusion paradigm and theory where each sensor in the system is a HAS. Hence, given the reach qualitative information from each HAS, a paradigm and formal definitions are given so that sensors and processes can reason and make decisions at the qualitative level. This approach to sensor fusion makes it possible the implementation of intuitive (effective) methods to monitor, diagnose, and compensate processes/systems and their sensors. This paradigm facilitates a balanced distribution of intelligence (code and/or hardware) to the sensor level, the process/system level, and a higher controller level. The primary application of interest is in intelligent health management of rocket engine test stands.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

NASA NTRS2018

Planetary Probe Entry Models for Concurrent and Integrated Interplanetary Mission Design

There are many prospective mission opportunities involving atmospheric entry probes. The Planetary Science Deep Space SmallSat Studies (PSDS3) re-cently selected probe missions to Venus, Mars, and the outer planets as part of the 10 selected studies. Two of the six themes in the most recent New Fron-tiers call were a Saturn probe and a Venus in situ explorer. The 2013-2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey includes probe missions at Venus, Mars, Saturn, Titan, Uranus, and Neptune. Across mission destinations and mission classes there is growing interest in planetary probes. While interplanetary trajectory specialists may like to use a broad sweep of low-fidelity solutions to find a wide array of trajectory options, probe specialists typically start off with mid- to high-fidelity point designs for the entry probe since the equations of motion for atmospheric probes require numerical integration and are so directly linked with some of the probe's subsystem design. Cur-rently, there are no alternatives to this design ap-proach as there are no tools capable of automatical-ly and concurrently designing interplanetary and atmospheric trajectories. Unfortunately, this makes us reliant on point designs in the early stages of the mission design process. The reliance on point de-signs for atmospheric probes hinders the flexibility of the design, making the design process cumber-some and restricting decision-making down the road. The research presented here addresses this problem by providing low-fidelity models for the automated, rapid design of atmospheric trajectories and probe's models which may be solved concur-rently with the interplanetary trajectory.

atmospheric probes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating the Value of Resilience into Energy Decisions

The value of resilience can be quantified and integrated into decision making to help inform economic, resilient, and sustainable energy deployment decisions using tools and analysis. Traditionally, distributed energy deployment decisions have often been based on how much energy, or how much money, a system can save. More and more, building owners and communities are recognizing that these systems can also provide a resilience value by sustaining critical loads during an outage. In order to consider the value of resilience in investment decisions, we must quantify how much resilience a system provides, assign a value to that resilience, and monetize that value through grid services, incentives, or other methods. This presentation discusses methods, tools, advantages, and challenges inherent to the process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

An intelligent value-driven scheduling system for Space Station Freedom with special emphasis on the electric power system

The Electric Power Control System (EPCS) created by Decision-Science Applications, Inc. (DSA) for the Lewis Research Center is discussed. This system makes decisions on what to schedule and when to schedule it, including making choices among various options or ways of performing a task. The system is goal-directed and seeks to shape resource usage in an optimal manner using a value-driven approach. Discussed here are considerations governing what makes a good schedule, how to design a value function to find the best schedule, and how to design the algorithm that finds the schedule that maximizes this value function. Results are shown which demonstrate the usefulness of the techniques employed.

Krupp, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Massie, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the role of judgement and shared situation awareness when working with AI recommender systems

Abstract AI-advised Decision Making is a form of human-autonomy teaming in which an AI recommender system suggests a solution to a human operator, who is responsible for the final decision. This work seeks to examine the importance of judgement and shared situation awareness between humans and automated agents when interacting together in the form of a recommender systems. We propose manipulating both human judgement and shared situation awareness by providing the human decision maker with relevant information that the automated agent (AI), in the form of a recommender system, uses to generate possible courses of action. This paper presents the results of a two-phase between-subjects study in which participants and a recommender system jointly make a high-stakes decision. We varied the amount of relevant information the participant had, the assessment technique of the proposed solution, and the reliability of the recommender system. Findings indicate that this technique of supporting the human’s judgement and establishing a shared situation awareness is effective in (1) boosting the human decision maker’s situation awareness and task performance, (2) calibrating their trust in AI teammates, and (3) reducing overreliance on an AI partner. Additionally, participants were able to pinpoint the limitations and boundaries of the AI partner’s capabilities. They were able to discern situations where the AI’s recommendations could be trusted versus instances when they should not rely on the AI’s advice. This work proposes and validates a way to provide model-agnostic transparency into recommender systems that can support the human decision maker and lead to improved team performance.

Srivastava, Divya↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Risk Assessment With Markovian Representation of Renewable Power

Probabilistic forecasts provide a distribution of possible outputs and so can capture the uncertainty and variability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). However, taking advantage of uncertainty information has practical challenges that make it difficult to integrate probabilistic forecasting into control room decision-making. This paper proposes a novel use-case for probabilistic forecasts by incorporating them into the hour-ahead operations for situational awareness via a risk-averse multi-stage stochastic program. We employ a Markovian representation of the probabilistic forecasts that enables the formulation of the multi-stage problem and avoids a scenario generation phase. We test the model on a realistically sized system to assess risk and showcase the capability of using probabilistic renewable forecast as input to produce probabilistic output forecasts of future system states. The results show that the model can capture time consistency in the reserves and Area Control Error (ACE) forecast. The solution times are adequate for risk profiling in hour-ahead timescales.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS1982

Optimum equipment maintenance/replacement policy. Part 2: Markov decision approach

Dynamic programming was utilized as an alternative optimization technique to determine an optimal policy over a given time period. According to a joint effect of the probabilistic transition of states and the sequence of decision making, the optimal policy is sought such that a set of decisions optimizes the long-run expected average cost (or profit) per unit time. Provision of an alternative measure for the expected long-run total discounted costs is also considered. A computer program based on the concept of the Markov Decision Process was developed and tested. The program code listing, the statement of a sample problem, and the computed results are presented.

Charng, T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Bayesian design of decision rules for failure detection

The formulation of the decision making process of a failure detection algorithm as a Bayes sequential decision problem provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Bayesian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is potentially a useful one.

Chow, E. Y.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to our COSPAR-Sponsored Session: Space-Observation Contributions Supporting Climate Action

• The challenge for us at COSPAR in putting this program together was that we are primarily a scientifically oriented organization. “Climate Action,” as it is often expressed publicly, tends to be the domain of “activists.” As scientists, on the other hand, to retain our credibility – and for the contributions we make to continue carrying the weight of scientific truth – it is critical that we remain even-handed in our analysis and our reporting of results. • COSPAR is the Committee on Space Research, and fortunately, much of what we observe from space bears objectively on the attributes of the Earth System and how it is evolving. We can measure from space changes in the cryosphere, in the oceans, the land surface and the atmosphere, frequently, on a global scale, to a degree that is generally not possible any other way. And we have been making such observations, in increasing detail, scope, and precision, for about 60 years. • These data help us characterize the current state and identify patterns of change in the Earth System that allow us to infer processes and to improve climate models. With modeling we can test and refine our inferences, and make some predictions. The results can then inform policy and decision-makers, the public in general, as well as those taking direct action. • So, for today’s session we have invited 7 15-minute presentations spanning a broad range of climate-related topics, covering observations from space that can inform climate-related decision-making – from sea-ice extent and sea-level rise, to land surface properties and land-based water resources, to interactions between land or water surfaces and the atmosphere, to severe events in the atmosphere itself. • We begin with an overview of the observations contributed by one of the premier space agencies, given by NASA Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor Dr. Kate Calvin, which will be followed by talks on what we are learning about specific attributes of the Earth System from space-based measurements that can inform climate-related policy and action.

Ralph Kahn↗

NASA NTRS2005

Geospatial Analysis and Remote Sensing from Airplanes and Satellites for Cultural Resources Management

Cultural resource management consists of research to identify, evaluate, document and assess cultural resources, planning to assist in decision-making, and stewardship to implement the preservation, protection and interpretation of these decisions and plans. One technique that may be useful in cultural resource management archaeology is remote sensing. It is the acquisition of data and derivative information about objects or materials (targets) located on the Earth's surface or in its atmosphere by using sensor mounted on platforms located at a distance from the targets to make measurements on interactions between the targets and electromagnetic radiation. Included in this definition are systems that acquire imagery by photographic methods and digital multispectral sensors. Data collected by digital multispectral sensors on aircraft and satellite platforms play a prominent role in many earth science applications, including land cover mapping, geology, soil science, agriculture, forestry, water resource management, urban and regional planning, and environmental assessments. Inherent in the analysis of remotely sensed data is the use of computer-based image processing techniques. Geographical information systems (GIS), designed for collecting, managing, and analyzing spatial information, are also useful in the analysis of remotely sensed data. A GIS can be used to integrate diverse types of spatially referenced digital data, including remotely sensed and map data. In archaeology, these tools have been used in various ways to aid in cultural resource projects. For example, they have been used to predict the presence of archaeological resources using modern environmental indicators. Remote sensing techniques have also been used to directly detect the presence of unknown sites based on the impact of past occupation on the Earth's surface. Additionally, remote sensing has been used as a mapping tool aimed at delineating the boundaries of a site or mapping previously unknown features. All of these applications are pertinent to the goals of site discovery and assessment in cultural resource management.

Giardino, Marco J.↗