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High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Three-Dimensional Normal Human Neutral Progenitor Tissue-Like Assemblies: A Model for Persistent Varicella-Zoster Virus Infection and Platform to Study Oxidate Stress and Damage in Multiple Hit Scenarios

The environment of space results in a multitude of challenges to the human physiology that present barriers to extended habitation and exploration. Over 40 years of investigation to define countermeasures to address space flight adaptation has left gaps in our knowledge regarding mitigation strategies partly due to the lack of investigative tools, monitoring strategies, and real time diagnostics to understand the central causative agent(s) responsible for physiologic adaptation and maintaining homeostasis. Spaceflight-adaptation syndrome is the combination of space environmental conditions and the synergistic reaction of the human physiology. Our work addresses the role of oxidative stress and damage (OSaD) as a negative and contributing Risk Factor (RF) in the following areas of combined spaceflight related dysregulation: i) radiation induced cellular damage [1], [2] ii) immune impacts and the inflammatory response [3], [4] and iii) varicella zoster virus (VZV) reactivation [5]. Varicella-zoster (VZV)/Chicken Pox virus is a neurotropic human alphaherpes virus resulting in varicella upon primary infection, suppressed by the immune system becomes latent in ganglionic neurons, and reactivates under stress events to re-express in zoster and possibly shingles. Our laboratory has developed a complex three-dimensional (3D) normal human neural tissue model that emulates several characteristics of the human trigeminal ganglia (TG) and allows the study of combinatorial experimentation which addresses, simultaneously, OSaD associated with Spaceflight adaptation and habitation [6]. By combining the RFs of microgravity, radiation, and viral infection we will demonstrate that living in the space environment leads to significant physiological consequences for the peripheral and subsequently the central nervous system (PNS, CNS) associated with OSaD generation and consequentially endangers long-duration and exploration-class missions.

Goodwin, Thomas J.↗

Effect of Loading Frequency on Fatigue Behavior of Additively Manufactured Short Fiber Thermoplastics via Infrared Thermography

Fracture, Fatigue, Failure, Damage Evolution and Thermomechanics & Infrared Imaging, Volume 4 of the Proceedings of the 2025 SEM Annual Conference & Exposition on Experimental and Applied Mechanics, the fourth volume of five from the Conference, brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on a wide range of areas, including: • 3D Deformation and Failure • In-situ Techniques and Microscale Effects on Mechanical Behavior • Vibration and Cyclic Fatigue • Integration of Models and Experiments • Interface-Mediated Damage and Failure • Fracture and Fatigue in Brittle Materials • Material Characterizations Using Thermography • Fatigue, Damage & Fracture Evaluation Using Infrared Thermography

Pathak, Pharindra [Auburn University]↗

Accelerated Creep Test Qualification of Creep-Resistance Using the Wilshire–Cano–Stewart Constitutive Model and Stepped Isostress Method

In this paper, a qualification of accelerated creep-resistance of Inconel 718 is assessed using the novel Wilshire–Cano–Stewart (WCS) model and the stepped isostress method (SSM) and predictions are made to conventional creep data. Conventional creep testing is a long-term continuous process; in fact, the ASME B&PV III requires that 10,000+ h of experiments must be conducted to each heat for materials employed in boilers and/or pressure vessel components. This process is costly and not feasible for rapid development of new materials. As an alternative, accelerated creep testing techniques have been developed to reduce the time needed to characterize the creep resistance of materials. Most techniques are based upon the time-temperature-stress superposition principle that predicts minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR) and stress-rupture behaviors but lack the ability to predict creep deformation and consider deformation mechanisms that occur for experiments of longer duration. The SSM has been developed, which enables the prediction of creep deformation response as well as reduce the time needed for qualification of materials. The SSM approach has been successful for polymer, polymeric composites, and recently has been introduced for metals. In this study, the WCS constitutive model, calibrated to SSM test data, qualifies the creep resistance of Inconel 718 at 750 °C and predictions are compared to conventional creep testing data. The WCS model has proven to make long-term predictions for stress-rupture, MCSR, creep deformation, and damage in metallic materials. The SSM varies stress levels after time interval adding damage to the material, which can be tracked by the WCS model. The SSM data is calibrated into the model and the WCS model generates realistic predictions of stress-rupture, MSCR, damage, and creep deformation. The calibrated material constants are used to generate predictions of stress-rupture and are postaudit validated using the National Institute of Material Science database. Similarly, the MCSR predictions are compared from previous studies. Finally, the creep deformation predictions are compared with real data and is determined that the results are well in between the expected boundaries. Material characterization and mechanical properties can be determined at a faster rate and with a more cost-effective method. This is beneficial for multiple applications such as in additive manufacturing, composites, spacecraft, and industrial gas turbines.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microstructural characterization of cold-worked 316 stainless steel flux thimble tubes irradiated up to 100 dpa in a commercial Pressurized Water Reactor

Two flux thimble tubes (FTT) made of 15% cold-worked 316 stainless steel (SS) were harvested from Ringhals Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Unit 2, with peak damages of 76 and 100 displacements per atom (dpa) after 29 and 34 years’ service, respectively. Specimens sectioned from parent tubes were comprehensively characterized with nominal damage levels of ~0, ~41, ~74, 76, and 100 dpa at a nominal temperature range of 285-323 °C. Both FTTs contained helium and hydrogen gases as transmutation products. The helium follows a production rate of ~9.8 appm/dpa, while environmental factors complicate hydrogen production obscuring an exact H/dpa ratio. Irradiation-induced dislocation loops, nano-cavities, solute clusters, and microsegregation were all observed. The dislocation loops and nano-cavities indicated saturation at 41 dpa. The solute clusters continued to evolve with Ni-Si clusters formed at 41 dpa, and Ni-Si-Mn-P clusters formed at 74 and 100 dpa, but neither clusters exhibited distinct diffraction patterns at any damage levels. Solute clusters were observed to frequently be co-located with dislocation loops, but fully decorated loops were rarely detected. Significant radiation-induced segregation (RIS) was observed around grain boundaries at all damage levels. The modified inverse Kirkendall (MIK) model captured the RIS behavior of major elements. Large cavities within or around an Mn-S rich region were observed for the first time. Through all the damage levels, void swelling is always below 0.05%, making significant dimensional change unlikely in core internals when used at similar conditions. Meanwhile, the role of overwhelming nanocavities, presumably helium bubbles, should be considered in other potential degradation mechanisms, including irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking, embrittlement, and loss of fracture toughness, which remain the concerns for extended operation of nuclear power plants.

Post Irradiation Examination, Isotope Dilution Mas↗

Relationship between phase difference and coefficient of restitution during low velocity foreign object transverse damage of composite plates

This work discusses a model to correlate the coefficient of restitution of low velocity transverse impacts of graphite-epoxy laminates with the residual deformation or central deflection at the end of the impact event. It is assumed that the energy absorbed by the target can be calibrated in terms of residual deflection, and thereby in terms of phase difference between the occurrence of impact force and central deflection to their maximas. Analysis was modeled on the basis of the experience from impact tests. Predictions are compared with the test results of impacted circular and flat plates. Experimentally measured values of coefficient of restitution and phase difference agreed well with the predicted relationship between them.

Lal, K. M.↗

High-Fidelity Modeling for Health Monitoring in Honeycomb Sandwich Structures

High-Fidelity Model of the sandwich composite structure with real geometry is reported. The model includes two composite facesheets, honeycomb core, piezoelectric actuator/sensors, adhesive layers, and the impactor. The novel feature of the model is that it includes modeling of the impact and wave propagation in the structure before and after the impact. Results of modeling of the wave propagation, impact, and damage detection in sandwich honeycomb plates using piezoelectric actuator/sensor scheme are reported. The results of the simulations are compared with the experimental results. It is shown that the model is suitable for analysis of the physics of failure due to the impact and for testing structural health monitoring schemes based on guided wave propagation.

Luchinsky, Dimitry G.↗

Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

Progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) tools are needed to predict the nonlinear response of advanced fiber-reinforced composite structures. Predictive tools should incorporate the underlying physics of the damage and failure mechanisms observed in the composite, and should utilize as few input parameters as possible. The purpose of the Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST) was to create a PDFA tool that operates in conjunction with a commercially available finite element (FE) code (Abaqus). The tool captures the physics of the damage and failure mechanisms that result in the nonlinear behavior of the material, and the failure methodology employed yields numerical results that are relatively insensitive to changes in the FE mesh. The EST code is written in Fortran and compiled into a static library that is linked to Abaqus. A Fortran Abaqus UMAT material subroutine is used to facilitate the communication between Abaqus and EST. A clear distinction between damage and failure is imposed. Damage mechanisms result in pre-peak nonlinearity in the stress strain curve. Four internal state variables (ISVs) are utilized to control the damage and failure degradation. All damage is said to result from matrix microdamage, and a single ISV marks the micro-damage evolution as it is used to degrade the transverse and shear moduli of the lamina using a set of experimentally obtainable matrix microdamage functions. Three separate failure ISVs are used to incorporate failure due to fiber breakage, mode I matrix cracking, and mode II matrix cracking. Failure initiation is determined using a failure criterion, and the evolution of these ISVs is controlled by a set of traction-separation laws. The traction separation laws are postulated such that the area under the curves is equal to the fracture toughness of the material associated with the corresponding failure mechanism. A characteristic finite element length is used to transform the traction-separation laws into stress-strain laws. The ISV evolution equations are derived in a thermodynamically consistent manner by invoking the stationary principle on the total work of the system with respect to each ISV. A novel feature is the inclusion of both pre-peak damage and appropriately scaled, post-peak strain softening failure. Also, the characteristic elements used in the failure degradation scheme are calculated using the element nodal coordinates, rather than simply the square root of the area of the element.

Pineda, Evan J.↗

Multiscale mechanical design of the lightweight, stiff, and damage-tolerant cuttlebone: A computational study

Cuttlebone, the endoskeleton of cuttlefish, offers an intriguing biological structural model for designing low-density cellular ceramics with high stiffness and damage tolerance. Cuttlebone is highly porous (porosity ~93%) and lightweight (density less than 20% of seawater), constructed mainly by brittle aragonite (95 wt%), but capable of sustaining hydrostatic water pressures over 20 atmospheres and exhibits energy absorption capability under compression comparable to many metallic foams (~4.4 kJ/kg). Here, in this work, we computationally investigate how such remarkable mechanical efficiency is enabled by the multiscale structure of cuttlebone. Using the common cuttlefish, Sepia Officinalis, as a model system, we first conducted high-resolution synchrotron micro-computed tomography (µ-CT) and quantified the cuttlebone's multiscale geometry, including the 3D asymmetric shape of individual walls, the wall assembly patterns, and the long-range structural gradient of walls across the entire cuttlebone (ca. 38 chambers). The acquired 3D structural information enables systematic finite-element simulations, which further reveal the multiscale mechanical design of cuttlebone: at the wall level, wall asymmetry provides optimized energy absorption while maintaining high structural stiffness; at the chamber level, variation of walls (number, pattern, and waviness amplitude) contributes to progressive damage; at the entire skeletal level, the gradient of chamber heights tailors the local mechanical anisotropy of the cuttlebone for reduced stress concentration. Our results provide integrated insights into understanding the cuttlebone's multiscale mechanical design and provide useful knowledge for the designs of lightweight cellular ceramics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ditching Investigation of a 1/20-Scale Model of the Boeing Stratocruiser Airplane (C-97)

An investigation of a 1/20-scale dynamically similar model of the Boeing Stratocruiser airplane (C-97) was made to determine the ditching characteristics and proper technique for ditching the airplane. Scale-strength bottoms were used to determine probable damage to the fuselage and the effect of damage on behavior. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, motion-picture records, and time-history deceleration records. Data are presented in a table, photographs, and curves. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a medium nose-high landing attitude (near 6 deg) with landing flaps full down. The airplane will probably make a smooth run of medium depth with light spray and may even trim up slightly in the water. The fuselage will probably be damaged and the lower compartment filled with water. In calm water, the maximum longitudinal deceleration will be about 4g and the landing run will be about four fuselage lengths.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗

Impact force as a scaling parameter

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAR PART 25) requires that a structure carry ultimate load with nonvisible impact damage and carry 70 percent of limit flight loads with discrete damage. The Air Force has similar criteria (MIL-STD-1530A). Both civilian and military structures are designed by a building block approach. First, critical areas of the structure are determined, and potential failure modes are identified. Then, a series of representative specimens are tested that will fail in those modes. The series begins with tests of simple coupons, progresses through larger and more complex subcomponents, and ends with a test on a full-scale component, hence the term 'building block.' In order to minimize testing, analytical models are needed to scale impact damage and residual strength from the simple coupons to the full-scale component. Using experiments and analysis, the present paper illustrates that impact damage can be better understood and scaled using impact force than just kinetic energy. The plate parameters considered are size and thickness, boundary conditions, and material, and the impact parameters are mass, shape, and velocity.

Poe, Clarence C., Jr.↗

Simplified Models for the Study of Postbuckled Hat-Stiffened Composite Panels

The postbuckling response and failure of multistringer stiffened panels is analyzed using models with three levels of approximation. The first model uses a relatively coarse mesh to capture the global postbuckling response of a five-stringer panel. The second model can predict the nonlinear response as well as the debonding and crippling failure mechanisms in a single stringer compression specimen (SSCS). The third model consists of a simplified version of the SSCS that is designed to minimize the computational effort. The simplified model is well-suited to perform sensitivity analyses for studying the phenomena that lead to structural collapse. In particular, the simplified model is used to obtain a deeper understanding of the role played by geometric and material modeling parameters such as mesh size, inter-laminar strength, fracture toughness, and fracture mode mixity. Finally, a global/local damage analysis method is proposed in which a detailed local model is used to scan the global model to identify the locations that are most critical for damage tolerance.

Vescovini, Riccardo↗

Radiation damage and dose limits in serial synchrotron crystallography at cryo- and room temperatures

Radiation damage limits the accuracy of macromolecular structures in X-ray crystallography. Cryogenic (cryo-) cooling reduces the global radiation damage rate and, therefore, became the method of choice over the past decades. The recent advent of serial crystallography, which spreads the absorbed energy over many crystals, thereby reducing damage, has rendered room temperature (RT) data collection more practical and also extendable to microcrystals, both enabling and requiring the study of specific and global radiation damage at RT. Here, we performed sequential serial raster-scanning crystallography using a microfocused synchrotron beam that allowed for the collection of two series of 40 and 90 full datasets at 2- and 1.9-Å resolution at a dose rate of 40.3 MGy/s on hen egg white lysozyme (HEWL) crystals at RT and cryotemperature, respectively. The diffraction intensity halved its initial value at average doses ( D 1/2 ) of 0.57 and 15.3 MGy at RT and 100 K, respectively. Specific radiation damage at RT was observed at disulfide bonds but not at acidic residues, increasing and then apparently reversing, a peculiar behavior that can be modeled by accounting for differential diffraction intensity decay due to the nonuniform illumination by the X-ray beam. Specific damage to disulfide bonds is evident early on at RT and proceeds at a fivefold higher rate than global damage. The decay modeling suggests it is advisable not to exceed a dose of 0.38 MGy per dataset in static and time-resolved synchrotron crystallography experiments at RT. This rough yardstick might change for proteins other than HEWL and at resolutions other than 2 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Integrated Multiscale Experimental-Numerical Analysis on Reconsolidation of Salt-Clay Mixture for Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste (Final NEUP Technical Report)

The overall purpose of this research is to improve understanding of THMC coupling effect on the reconsolidation of granular (or crushed) salt-clay mixture used for seal systems of shafts and drifts in salt repositories. This proposed work is partially motivated by the recent work on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) that shows the promising sealing capability of clay-salt mixture compared to crushed salt. In particular, primary emphasis is to develop a fully integrated multiscale experiment-numerical study to determine and explain what leads to the superior sealing ability of the clay-salt mixture. These research activities are designed to seek further understanding of (1) why clay additives may enhance the fluid trapping and (2) whether this flow barrier effect may prevail under different combinations of temperature, confining pressure, deviatoric stress and other foreseeable environmental factors. If successful, this enhanced flow trapping ability of the seal provides significant improvement to the seal and repository performance and therefore make the repository safer in the long-term. The experiment component includes microstructural investigation and macroscopic tests on a reconsolidated salt-clay mixture. In the microstructural study, the goal is to (1) characterize microscopic distributions of distinct phases (e.g., clay, salt crystal boundaries, trapped brine, and pore) to examine the connectivity of the pore network inside the salt-clay mixture with different amounts of clay additive and moisture content and (2) analyze multiscale imaging data to reconstruct the polycrystalline microstructures for numerical simulations. Meanwhile, macroscopic tests are performed to analyze how clay alters the failure/creep mechanisms in the salt-clay mixture. Microscopic and macroscopic experimental observations will both be used to calibrate and validate a multiscale model that explicitly simulates the capillary and multiphase flow in the connected pores and the deformation due to the presence of intra-crystalline brine at the pore scale via a new polyhedral discrete element–lattice Boltzmann method (DEM-LBM) coupling model. The pore-scale simulations are homogenized via an upscaling procedure that converts pore-scale information (e.g. force exerted on grain boundary, sliding, pressure-solution) to continuum measures (e.g. Cauchy stress, Darcy’s flow) at each integration point in the macroscopic multiphase TMHC model. This multiscale scheme will allow coupling be- tween high-fidelity simulations of brine-salt-clay interaction and the macroscopic TMHC model. The multiscale model helps the understanding of how the trapped brine inclusion affects the pressure-solution mechanism with the presence of clay and moisture. This work brings new insight into the sealing capacity of salt-clay mixture under elevated temperature over a long period of time - a key to evaluating the potential of salt-clay mixture usage for salt repositories.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A thermodynamically consistent finite strain phase field approach to ductile fracture considering multi-axial stress states

Phase field models for ductile fracture have gained significant attention in the last two decades due to their ability in implicitly tracking the nucleation and propagation of cracks. However, most crack phase field formulations for elastoplastic solids focus only on the effects of plastic deformation, and do not consider the different multi-axial stress states that may arise in practical designs. In this work, a thermodynamically consistent phase field approach coupled with finite strain plasticity, considering multi-axial stress states is presented. In order to account for the coupling between plasticity and stress states, the Stress-Weighted Ductile Fracture Model (SWDFM) is utilized. The SWDFM represents a criterion for predicting ductile crack initiation under both monotonic and cyclic loadings based on histories of an internal plastic variable, stress triaxiality, and the Lode angle parameter. The excellent performance of the SWDFM for predicting ductile crack initiation motivates for its incorporation into a phase field approach for predicting both crack initiation and propagation through degradation of the fracture toughness. Moreover, based on the second law of thermodynamics, exact requirements are imposed on the rate at which the fracture toughness can evolve. Here, a novel function for degrading the plastic yield surface during the evolution of damage is introduced. This function, in line with experimental observations, leads to an accumulation of plastic deformation in damaged regions of a solid, and avoids numerical instabilities arising from concentrations of large plastic deformations in severely damaged regions. For validating the proposed model, results of computational simulations are compared to data from selected tests considering different multi-axial stress states. Comparisons of the numerical results with data from laboratory experiments demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗

Fully Coupled Micro/Macro Deformation, Damage, and Failure Prediction for SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates

The deformation, failure, and low cycle fatigue life of SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composites are predicted using a coupled deformation and damage approach in the context of the analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model. The local effects of inelastic deformation, fiber breakage, fiber-matrix interfacial debonding, and fatigue damage are included as sub-models that operate on the micro scale for the individual composite phases. For the laminate analysis, lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC is embedded to operate on the meso scale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. While the analysis approach is quite complex and multifaceted, it is shown, through comparison with experimental data, to be quite accurate and realistic while remaining extremely efficient.

Bednarcyk, Brett A.↗

Evaluation of Composite Airframe Dynamic Impact Modeling Using Hawker 4000 Fuselage Drop Test Data

Two drop tests of partial Hawker 4000 fuselage sections were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) to characterize the response of representative composite aerospace structure to dynamic impact loads. Test conditions were selected to induce damage into the composite structure in order to study material failure within a composite fuselage and evaluate the capability of finite element (FE) model analysis to predict that failure. The tests were simulated using FE models which were generated to isolate the effect of developmental data availability on predictive capability. FE Models of the tested fuselage sections were generated using two limited data sets. The first model configuration was reverse engineered from the test article with no information related to design or fabrication details which would be known only by the manufacturer. The second model was generated from data provided by the manufacturer but without additional material characterization test data. Models were developed using these methodologies for both fuselage sections tested. Correlation of each model to the tests conducted was evaluated in terms of damage, deformation, and cabin acceleration measurements. Correlation between the developed models and the tested fuselage sections showed that the reverse engineered model predicted the composite damage and cabin acceleration measured during test though it was limited due to lack of detail in the composite layup changes through the structure. The model developed using manufacturer specifications did not predict damage, due to limited material and component model characterization data, but it did predict acceleration on par with the reverse engineered model. Model capability and limitation sources identified were verified through correlation of a final model which was developed by combining the individual data sets. The combined model demonstrated that the addition of calibrated composite material models to accurate composite layup definitions and detailed geometry led to improved correlation of damage and acceleration response within the composite fuselage structures.

Crashworthiness↗