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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Skewness and kurtosis of mean transverse momentum fluctuations at the LHC energies

The first measurements of skewness and kurtosis of mean transverse momentum ($\langle$$p_T\rangle$) fluctuations are reported in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV, Xe–Xe collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.44 TeV and pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector. The measurements are carried out as a function of system size $\langle$dN ch /dη$\rangle$$^{1/3}_{|η|<0.5}$, using charged particles with transverse momentum ($p_T$) and pseudorapidity (η), in the range 0.2<$p_T$<3.0 GeV/c and |η|<0.8, respectively. In Pb–Pb and Xe–Xe collisions, positive skewness is observed in the fluctuations of $\langle$$p_T\rangle$ for all centralities, which is significantly larger than what would be expected in the scenario of independent particle emission. This positive skewness is considered a crucial consequence of the hydrodynamic evolution of the hot and dense nuclear matter created in heavy-ion collisions. Furthermore, similar observations of positive skewness for minimum bias pp collisions are also reported here. Kurtosis of $\langle$$p_T\rangle$ fluctuations is found to be in good agreement with the kurtosis of Gaussian distribution, for most central Pb–Pb collisions. Hydrodynamic model calculations with MUSIC using Monte Carlo Glauber initial conditions are able to explain the measurements of both skewness and kurtosis qualitatively from semicentral to central collisions in Pb–Pb system. Color reconnection mechanism in PYTHIA8 model seems to play a pivotal role in capturing the qualitative behavior of the same measurements in pp collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling of transverse stimulated Raman scattering in KDP/DKDP in large-aperture plates suitable for polarization control

Transverse stimulated Raman scattering (TSRS) in potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) and deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) plates for large-aperture, inertial confinement fusion (ICF)-class laser systems is a well-recognized limitation giving rise to parasitic energy conversion and laser-induced damage. The onset of TSRS is manifested in plates exposed to the ultraviolet section of the beam. TSRS amplification is a coherent process that grows exponentially and is distributed nonuniformly in the crystal and at the crystal surfaces. To understand the growth and spatial distribution of TSRS energy in various configurations, a modeling approach has been developed to simulate the operational conditions relevant to ICF-class laser systems. Specific aspects explored in this work include (i) the behavior of TSRS in large-aperture crystal plates suitable for third-harmonic generation and use as wave plates for polarization control in current-generation ICF-class laser system configurations; (ii) methods, and their limitations, of TSRS suppression and (iii) optimal geometries to guide future designs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Reduced Sediment Settling in Turbulent Flows Due To Basset History and Virtual Mass Effects

The behavior of suspended particles in turbulent flows is a recalcitrant problem spanning wide-ranging fields including geomorphology, hydrology, and dispersion of particulate matter in the atmosphere. One key mechanism underlying particle suspension is the difference between particle settling velocity (w s ) in turbulence and its still water counterpart (w so ). This difference is explored here for a range of particle-to-fluid densities (1 – 10) and particle diameter to Kolmogorov micro-eddy sizes (0.1 – 10). Conventional models of particle fluxes that equate w s to w so result in eddy diffusivities and turbulent Schmidt numbers contradictory to laboratory experiments. Incorporating virtual mass and Basset history forces resolves these inconsistencies, providing clarity as to why w s /w so is sub-unity for the aforementioned conditions. The proposed formulation can be imminently used to model particle settling in turbulence, especially when sediment distribution outcomes over extended time scales far surpassing turbulence time scales are sought.

Geology↗

Distinguishing Single and Linked Ruptures in the Laboratory and Nature

Earthquakes can grow either monotonically from a single, stressed patch or through linking multiple stressed regions. The distinction has implications for magnitude predictability with single ruptures requiring knowledge of the local stress state, while linked ruptures require knowing the global stress and energy distribution. Here, we use a laboratory fault that allows direct observation of slip to determine which fault conditions promote linked ruptures, and how to observationally evaluate their likelihood. Higher concentrations of normal stress due to increased normal force, applied stress asperities, or larger heterogeneity between the samples, all lead to significant increases in linked rupture likelihood. The mean radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF) of large events is an excellent proxy for linked event likelihood, and a combination of REEF and duration can identify the rupture style of some but not all events. The results imply that globally observed variations of REEF can be interpreted as variations in stress concentration.

earthquakes↗

Role of Intersections in Fracture Connectivity

Networks of intersecting fractures often provide the flow paths through subsurface reservoirs. Assessing network connectivity is challenging because fracture intersections compose a vanishingly small fraction of the network void volume. In this paper, motivated by 3D X-ray imaging of the simplest element of fracture network, that is, two orthogonal fractures, we perform a percolation and finite-size scaling analysis to study the connectivity provided by fracture intersections. The conditions when an intersection enhances connectivity across a sample depend on spatial correlations in the fracture aperture distributions, on the stress state, and on the direction of flow. Here we consider three flow directions: (a) across intersections, (b) parallel to intersections and (c) around corners. For (a), intersections provide minimal enhancement of connectivity because they contribute little additional void area. For (b), intersections increase the probability of a connected path near threshold by enabling 3D connected pathways that are not possible in parallel fractures. Flow around corners, (c), is fundamentally the result of the intersection connecting two fractures in series and spatial correlations are broken around corners, suppressing the connectivity relative to (a). When the connected fractures are stressed equally, a joint percolation threshold emerges that continues to have scale invariance. However, when the fractures are stressed unequally, the system has mixed percolation without clearly defined percolation thresholds. In all cases, percolation probabilities are found to be scale dependent which has important consequences for the connectivity of larger fracture networks composed of the fundamental element studied here.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Crack formation in strained β-(AlxGa 1−x ) 2 O 3 films grown on (010) β-Ga 2 O 3 substrates

The cracking and local strain relaxation in (010) (Al x Ga 1−x ) 2 O 3 films grown on Ga 2 O 3 substrates are assessed in terms of film composition and thickness. We utilize x-ray diffraction and electron microscopy techniques combined with simulation and modeling to investigate that film cracking on curvature (flatness) has a directly proportional relationship with film thickness and/or aluminum content. Cross section transmission electron microscopy reveals that cracks along both the (001) and (100) cleavage planes penetrate into the substrate. The diffuse scattered intensity observed in reciprocal space maps (RSMs) is directly correlated with the tilt that is introduced due to the change in the deformation conditions near the cracks. While asymmetric RSMs show that the layers are fully strained, the diffuse scattering distribution in reciprocal space can be interpreted to show that the cracking relaxes and locally tilts the lattice ∼350 nm from the crack edges, which is consistent with the larger radius of curvature associated with the films with higher crack densities. For example, a 200 nm (Al 0.13 Ga 0.87 ) 2 O 3 thick film has an average inter-crack spacing of 3.3 µm, so most of the epitaxial layer is fully strained except near the cracks where it deforms elastically and is consistent with the gallium oxide Poisson ratio. A reciprocal space model was developed, which imports the strain and tilt distributions (based on finite element modeling) to match the features observed in the experimental maps. We also note that previous studies involving (Al x Ga 1−x ) 2 O 3 films may show evidence of cracking as observed in their symmetric and asymmetric RSMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A cryogenic white light absorption spectroscopy setup with in situ gamma irradiation and thermo-optical annealing for optical fiber radiation-induced attenuation characterization

Silica optical fiber sensors offer a fast, distributed measurement solution in various cryogenic and radiation environments, such as magnets for fusion power. Under these conditions, light-absorbing point defects limit lifetime via radiation-induced attenuation (RIA). To support RIA kinetics prediction, we present an in situ, broadband absorption spectroscopy setup combining gamma irradiation with liquid nitrogen cooling. The apparatus enables continuous monitoring of narrowband RIA levels and the use of secondary optical annealing light sources, alongside broadband spectrum measurements to characterize RIA defects through spectrum decomposition. Initial results confirm the inevitable photobleaching effect of the probe light source, which must be accounted for. In addition, we report RIA kinetics during cycles of gamma irradiation at 77 K and isochronal thermal annealing steps from liquid nitrogen to room temperature, showcasing the setup’s ability to replicate real fiber operation scenarios. These instruments form an ideal platform to further study the kinetics of RIA coupled with thermal and optical annealing.

Absorption spectroscopy↗

Surface-mediated spontaneous emulsification of the acylated peptide, semaglutide

Acylated peptides composed of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists modified with a fatty acid side chain are an important class of therapeutics for type 2 diabetes and obesity but are susceptible to an unusual physical instability in the presence of hydrophobic surfaces, i.e., spontaneous emulsification, also known as ouzo formation in practice. In this work, light scattering, small-angle X-ray scattering, and circular dichroism measurements are used to characterize the physical properties of the semaglutide colloidal phase, including size distribution, shape, secondary structure, internal structure, and internal composition, as a function of solution physico-chemical conditions. The existence and size of the colloids formed are successfully predicted by a classical Rayleigh model, which identifies the parameters controlling their size and formation. Colloid formation is found to be catalyzed by hydrophobic surfaces, and formation rates are modeled as an autocatalytic reaction, enabling the formation of a master curve for various surfaces that elucidates the mechanism. Surfaces differ due to differences in surface wettability, which can be correlated with Hansen solubility parameters. This work provides insights into this unusual colloidal phenomenon and guides the peptide synthesis process and drug product formulation in the pharmaceutical industry.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Topographic Correction of Optical Remote Sensing Images in Mountainous Areas: A systematic review

Rugged terrain distorts optical remote sensing observations and subsequently impacts land cover classification and biophysical and biochemical parameter retrieval over mountainous areas. Therefore, topographic correction (TC) is a prerequisite for many remote sensing applications. Although various TC methods have been explored over the past four decades to mitigate topographic effects, a systematic and global review of these studies is still lacking. Using a multicomponent bibliometric approach, we extracted bibliometric metadata from 426 publications identified by searching titles, keywords, and abstracts for research on “topographic correction” and “topographic effects” in Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) from 1980 to 2022. Here this systematic review revealed a rapid growth in the number of TC studies since the 1980s, primarily driven by the availability of decametric-resolution remote sensing observations and digital elevation models (DEMs). Most of the research has focused on relatively low-elevation regions, with increasing attention beyond American and European regions, particularly in China. The seasonal distribution of satellite acquisition for TC showed considerable imbalance, mainly concentrated in months with favorable solar illumination conditions (e.g., May to October). Important themes emerged from the keyword analysis, including satellite sensors, DEMs, TC methods, evaluation criteria, and applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Direct Numerical Simulation of Transitional and Turbulent Flows Over Multi-Scale Surface Roughness—Part I: Methodology and Challenges

Abstract High-fidelity simulation of transitional and turbulent flows over multi-scale surface roughness presents several challenges. For instance, the complex and irregular geometrical nature of surface roughness makes it impractical to employ conforming structured grids, commonly adopted in large-scale numerical simulations due to their high computational efficiency. One possible solution to overcome this problem is offered by immersed boundary methods, which allow wall boundary conditions to be enforced on grids that do not conform to the geometry of the solid boundary. To this end, a three-dimensional, second-order accurate boundary data immersion method (BDIM) is adopted. A novel mapping algorithm that can be applied to general three-dimensional surfaces is presented, together with a newly developed data-capturing methodology to extract and analyze on-surface flow quantities of interest. A rigorous procedure to compute gradient quantities such as the wall shear stress and the heat flux on complex non-conforming geometries is also introduced. The new framework is validated by performing a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of fully developed turbulent channel flow over sinusoidal egg-carton roughness in a minimal-span domain. For this canonical case, the averaged streamwise velocity profiles are compared against results from the literature obtained with a body-fitted grid. General guidelines on the BDIM resolution requirements for multi-scale roughness simulation are given. Momentum and energy balance methods are used to validate the calculation of the overall skin friction and heat transfer at the wall. The BDIM is then employed to investigate the effect of irregular homogeneous surface roughness on the performance of an LS-89 high-pressure turbine blade at engine-relevant conditions using DNS. This is the first application of the BDIM to realize multi-scale roughness for transitional flow in transonic conditions in the context of high-pressure turbines. The methodology adopted to generate the desired roughness distribution and to apply it to the reference blade geometry is introduced. The results are compared to the case of an equivalent smooth blade.

Engineering↗

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low temperature, ambient pressure electrochemical ammonia synthesis in alkaline media — Mechanistic studies and catalyst design. Final Report

Ammonia synthesis via the Haber-Bosch process is a pillar of modern agriculture, which converts the abundant but inert dinitrogen in the atmosphere to nitrogen-based fertilizers. Despite more than a century of optimization, the Haber-Bosch process remains energy intensive and reliant on fossil fuels and produces large amounts of CO 2 . Distributed and modular ammonia synthesis via the electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (ENRR) at or close to ambient conditions, powered by renewable electricity is an attractive alternative because it allows as needed production of ammonia, and in turn fertilizers. However, selective ENRR catalysts remain lacking. In this project, we systematically investigated two categories of catalytic materials, i.e., precious metals and transition metal nitrides, in the ENRR. Precious metals exhibit low activity and selectivity in the ENRR, which is in agreement with recent computational studies. Transition metal nitrides, especially VN, has been demonstrated as active and selective ENRR catalysts. We developed the first quantitative method to determine the amount of ammonia produced in the ENRR on N-containing containing catalysts in the membrane electrode assembly configuration. An initial ammonia production rate of 6.6 × 10 -10 mol s -1 mg -1 and a Faradaic efficiency of 6.0% at -0.1 V were reached on VN. After the initial deactivation, VN was shown to be stable in the ENRR for 116 hours with a steady state ammonia production rate of 1.1 × 10 -10 mol s -1 cm -2 . A vanadium oxynitride species was identified as the active phase in the ENRR via a combination of operando and ex situ characterization techniques. In addition, we established that the ENRR proceeded on transition metal nitrides via the Mars van Krevelen mechanism and determined the initial and steady state active site densities by developing a quantitative isotopic exchange method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Validation of a Co-Optimized, Smart Hybrid Heat Pump Control

This study examines a residential dual fuel (DF) heating system that integrates heat pump and gas furnace technology with a home’s forced-air distribution ducts. Specifically, it explores a retrofit where an “add-on” heat pump replaces the air conditioning (A/C) system and is combined with the home’s existing furnace and air handler. The research team developed and validated an innovative control scheme for this integrated DF system that selected the more economical heating source (furnace or heat pump) while maintaining comfort in the home. The project’s field study and subsequent modeling analysis show that this control scheme can decrease energy use, cost, and emissions compared to a furnace-only system. As homes in mixed and cold climates transition to more electric space heating, furnace-to-dual fuel system retrofits offer a solution that can alleviate the retrofit costs, energy cost concerns, and peak load impacts of full electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗