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NASA NTRS2000

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Ghanem, Roger↗

DOE OSTI2023

Oncogenic Ras and ΔNp63α cooperate to recruit immunosuppressive polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells in a mouse model of squamous cancer pathogenesis

Introduction Amplification of human chromosome 3q26-29, which encodes oncoprotein ΔNp63 among other isoforms of the p63 family, is a feature common to squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) of multiple tissue origins. Along with overexpression of ΔNp63, activation of the protooncogene, RAS , whether by overexpression or oncogenic mutation, is frequently observed in many cancers. In this study, analysis of transcriptome data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) demonstrated that expression of TP63 mRNA , particularly ΔNp63 isoforms, and HRAS are significantly elevated in advanced squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck (HNSCCs), suggesting pathological significance. However, how co-overexpressed ΔNp63 and HRAS affect the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment (TME) is incompletely understood. Methods Here, we established and characterized an immune competent mouse model using primary keratinocytes with retroviral-mediated overexpression of ΔNp63α and constitutively activated HRAS (v-ras Ha G12R) to evaluate the role of these oncogenes in the immune TME. Results In this model, orthotopic grafting of wildtype syngeneic keratinocytes expressing both v-ras Ha and elevated levels of ΔNp63α consistently yield carcinomas in syngeneic hosts, while cells expressing v-ras Ha alone yield predominantly papillomas. We found that polymorphonuclear (PMN) myeloid cells, experimentally validated to be immunosuppressive and thus representing myeloid-derived suppressor cells (PMN-MDSCs), were significantly recruited into the TME of carcinomas arising early following orthotopic grafting of ΔNp63α/v-ras Ha -expressing keratinocytes. ΔNp63α/v-ras Ha -driven carcinomas expressed higher levels of chemokines implicated in recruitment of MDSCs compared to v-ras Ha -initiated tumors, providing a heretofore undescribed link between ΔNp63α/HRAS-driven carcinomas and the development of an immunosuppressive TME. Conclusion These results support the utilization of a genetic carcinogenesis model harboring specific genomic drivers of malignancy to study mechanisms underlying the development of local immunosuppression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing patterns and variability of building electric load profiles in time and frequency domains

The rapid development of advanced metering infrastructure provides a new data source—building electrical load profiles with high temporal resolution. Electric load profile characterization can generate useful information to enhance building energy modeling and provide metrics to represent patterns and variability of load profiles. Such characterizations can be used to identify changes to building electricity demand due to operations or faulty equipment and controls. In this study, we proposed a two-path approach to analyze high temporal resolution building electrical load profiles: (1) time-domain analysis and (2) frequency-domain analysis. Furthermore, the commonly adopted time-domain analysis can extract and quantify the distribution of key parameters characterizing load shape such as peak-base load ratio and morning rise time, while a frequency-domain analysis can identify major periodic fluctuations and quantify load variability. We implemented and evaluated both paths using whole-year 15-minute interval smart meter data of 188 commercial office building in Northern California. The results from these two paths are consistent with each other and complementary to represent full dynamics of load profiles. The time- and frequency-domain analyses can be used to enhance building energy modeling by: (1) providing more realistic assumptions about building operation schedules, and (2) validating the simulated electric load profiles using the developed variability metrics against the real building load data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

climate variability↗

NASA NTRS1980

A synthesis of lunar highlands compositional data

Based on compositions of lunar soils and endogeneous highland rocks and mineral phase relationships, a composition for the non-KREEP, mafic portion of the lunar highlands is determined through the use of a mixing model. It is found that the most common materials making up the surface highlands appear to be ferroan anorthosite (FAN) and a material of olivine norite composition (HON, highlands olivine norite) in roughly equal proportions. It is also found that the composition of HON is similar to that of the residual liquid from crystallization of FAN and that the proportion of FAN to HON at the lunar surface appears to be much higher than the phase relations allow for the extent of evolution of HON from a primitive plagioclase-saturated liquid. This is seen as implying an excess of FAN in the upper highlands.

Korotev, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Scientific considerations for a common Saturn/Uranus atmospheric entry probe.

Development of a scientific rationale for an atmospheric probe designed to be capable of entry into either Saturn or Uranus. The effects of the NASA Monograph model atmospheres (SP 8091 and SP 8103) on the entry and descent trajectory specify instrument sampling design. The cool model atmospheres require descents to the vicinity of 20 bars to satisfy the objectives while about 4 bars is sufficient for the warm models. The measurement performance for a descent sampling time of 44 minutes shows that the atmosphere can be reconstructed from measured data. The required total probe entry weight is 103 kg, of which about 15 kg is for the science instruments. The descent data rate varies from 32 to 51 bps, depending upon the mode of transmitting preentry data. The resulting common probe can be redirected in flight between Saturn and Uranus.

Ledbetter, K. W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

DRIPS: A framework for dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space

Reduced-order models are often used to describe the behavior of complex systems, whose simulation with a full model is too expensive, or to extract salient features from the full model’s output. We introduce a new model-reduction framework DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) that combines the offline local model reduction with the online parameter interpolation of reduced-order bases (ROBs). The offline step of this framework relies on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to build a low-rank linear surrogate model, equipped with a local ROB, for quantities of interest derived from the training data generated by repeatedly solving the (nonlinear) high-fidelity model for multiple parameter points. The online step consists of the construction of a parametric reduced-order model for each target/test point in the parameter space, with the interpolation of ROBs done on a Grassman manifold and the interpolation of reduced-order operators done on a matrix manifold. The DMD component enables DRIPS to model (typically low-dimensional) quantities of interest directly, without having to access the (typically high-dimensional and possibly nonlinear) operators in a high-fidelity model that governs the dynamics of the underlying high-dimensional state variables, as required in projection-based reduced-order modeling. A series of numerical experiments suggests that DRIPS yields a model reduction, which is computationally more efficient than the commonly used projection-based proper orthogonal decomposition; it does so without requiring a prior knowledge of the governing equation for quantities of interest. Furthermore, for the nonlinear systems considered, DRIPS is more accurate than Gaussian-process interpolation (Kriging).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2001

Aerosol Optical Properties over the Oceans: Summary and Interpretation of Shadow-Band Radiometer Data from Six Cruises

The aerosol scattering component of the total radiance measured at the detectors of ocean color satellites is determined with atmospheric correction algorithms. These algorithms are based on aerosol optical thickness measurements made in two channels that lie in the near-infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. The aerosol properties in the near-infrared region are used because there is no significant contribution to the satellite-measured radiance from the underlying ocean surface in that spectral region. In the visible wavelength bands, the spectrum of radiation scattered from the turbid atmosphere is convolved with the spectrum of radiation scattered from the surface layers of the ocean. The radiance contribution made by aerosols in the visible bands is determined from the near-infrared measurements through the use of aerosol models and radiation transfer codes. Selection of appropriate aerosol models from the near-infrared measurements is a fundamental challenge. There are several challenges with respect to the development, improvement, and evaluation of satellite ocean-color atmospheric correction algorithms. A common thread among these challenges is the lack of over-ocean aerosol data. Until recently, one of the most important limitations has been the lack of techniques and instruments to make aerosol measurements at sea. There has been steady progress in this area over the past five years, and there are several new and promising devices and techniques for data collection. The development of new instruments and the collection of more aerosol data from over the world's oceans have brought the realization that aerosol measurements that can be directly compared with aerosol measurements from ocean color satellite measurements are difficult to obtain. There are two problems that limit these types of comparisons: the cloudiness of the atmosphere over the world's oceans and the limitations of the techniques and instruments used to collect aerosol data from ships. To address the latter, we have developed a new type of shipboard sun photometer.

Miller, Mark A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing conformance control for gas injection EOR in unconventional reservoirs

Field observations have shown that interference between wells caused by connected fractures commonly exists in unconventional reservoirs. The well interference effect and conformance issues could lead to minimal enhanced oil recovery response (EOR) in actual operations if they are not properly controlled. A series of data analysis, modeling, and experimental activities were performed in this study to investigate the gas EOR strategies in the Bakken Formation. Employing the embedded discrete fracture modeling technology, a multiple-well, multiple-fracture model was developed to capture the well interference and conformance issues in the Bakken. The model made it possible to investigate the complex flow behavior between wells in the EOR (huff ‘n’ puff) processes. Alternative EOR and conformance control strategies using water and surfactant injections were studied to improve oil production performance based on experimental observations. Results showed that water injection could be used for conformance control in the Bakken because of its relatively low mobility compared to gas; however, water could also block oil flow around the conformance control wells because of the high interfacial tension between oil and water. Adding surfactant to the injection water is more effective for improving gas EOR performance since surfactant reduces the oil–water interfacial tension and contact angle effectively. Up to 9.4% more oil could be produced from the huff ‘n’ puff wells in 2 years of EOR operations when rich gas was injected at only 3 MMscf/d with 6000 psi of surfactant injection in the offset wells for conformance control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Atlantic Jet Response to Stratospheric Events: A Regime Perspective

The tropospheric response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is associated with an equatorward shift in the midlatitude jet and associated storm tracks, while Strong Polar Vortex (SPV) events elicit a contrasting response. Recent analyses of the North Atlantic jet using probability density functions of a jet latitude index have identified three preferred jet latitudes, raising the question of whether the tropospheric response to SSWs and SPVs results from a change in relative frequencies of these preferred jet regimes rather than a systematic jet shift. We explore this question using atmospheric reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 (26 SSWs and 33 SPVs), and a 202-years integration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (92 SSWs and 68 SPVs). Following SSWs, the northern jet regime becomes less common and the central and southern regimes become more common. These changes occur almost immediately following “split” vortex events, but are more delayed following “displacement” events. In contrast, the northern regime becomes more frequent and the southern regime less frequent following SPV events. Following SSWs, composites of 500-hPa geopotential heights, surface air temperatures, and precipitation most closely resemble composites of the southern jet regime, and are generally opposite in sign to the composites of the northern jet regime. These comparisons are reversed following SPVs. Thus, one possible interpretation is that the two southernmost regimes appear to be favored following SSWs, while the southernmost regime becomes less common following SPVs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An improved framework for the dynamic likelihood filtering approach to data assimilation

Here, we propose improvements to the Dynamic Likelihood Filter (DLF), a Bayesian data assimilation filtering approach, specifically tailored to wave problems. The DLF approach was developed to address the common challenge in the application of data assimilation to hyperbolic problems in the geosciences and in engineering, where observation systems are sparse in space and time. When these observations have low uncertainties, as compared to model uncertainties, the DLF exploits the inherent nature of information and uncertainties to propagate along characteristics to produce estimates that are phase aware as well as amplitude aware, as would be the case in the traditional data assimilation approach. Along characteristics, the stochastic partial differential equations underlying the linear or nonlinear stochastic dynamics are differential equations. This study focuses on developing the explicit challenges of relating dynamics and uncertainties in the Eulerian and Lagrangian frames via dynamic Gaussian processes. It also implements the approach using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and compares the DLF approach to the conventional one with respect to wave amplitude and phase estimates in linear and nonlinear wave problems. Numerical comparisons show that the DLF/EnKF outperforms the EnKF estimates, when applied to linear and nonlinear wave problems. This advantage is particularly noticeable when sparse, low uncertainty observations are used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical uncertainties of the v n { 2 k } harmonics from Q cumulants

Analytic formulas to calculate statistical uncertainties of v n { 2 k } harmonics extracted from the Q cumulants are presented. The Q cumulants are multivariate polynomial functions of the weighted means of 2m-particle azimuthal correlations, $\langle\langle 2 m \rangle\rangle$. Variances and covariances of the $\langle\langle 2 m \rangle\rangle$ are included in the analytic formulas of the uncertainties that can be calculated simultaneously with the calculations of the v n { 2 k } harmonics. The calculations are performed using a simple toy model, which roughly simulates elliptic flow azimuthal anisotropy with magnitudes around 0.05. The results are compared with the results obtained by the many data subsets, and by the bootstrapping method. The first one is a common way of estimation of the statistical uncertainties of the v n { 2 k } harmonics in a real experiment. In order to increase precision in the measurement of the v n { 2 k } harmonics, a large number of 15 000 subsets and the same number of the resampling in the bootstrap method is used. Unlike the other ways of the analytic calculation of the v n { 2 k } statistical uncertainties, our proposal that includes the use of squared weights in the calculation of both the variances and covariances, gives the best agreement with the results obtained from the subsets and bootstrap method. Additionally, a recurrence equation between Q cumulants of any order is also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

PAO 1.0: A Python Library for Adversarial Optimization

PAO is a Python-based package for Adversarial Optimization. The goal of this package is to provide a general modeling and analysis capability for bilevel, trilevel and other multilevel optimization forms that express adversarial dynamics. PAO integrates two different modeling abstractions: 1. Algebraic models extend the modeling concepts in the Pyomo algebraic modeling language to express problems with an intuitive algebraic syntax. Thus, we expect that this modeling abstraction will commonly be used by PAO end-users. 2. Compact models express objective and constraints in a manner that is typically used to express the mathematical form of these problems (e.g. using vector and matrix data types). PAO denes custom Multilevel Problem Representations (MPRs) that simplify the implementation of solvers for bilevel, trilevel and other multilevel optimization problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status of Measuring Cross Sections of Hadrons on Argon with ProtoDUNE-SP

ProtoDUNE Single-Phase is a 700-ton liquid argon detector operated in the CERN Neutrino Platform from 2018 to 2020. It is part of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with a 40 kT liquid argon far detector to be built at the Sanford Underground Research Facility and a near detector, with both argon and non-argon detector technologies, to be hosted at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A critical uncertainty to understand in the neutrino oscillation program of DUNE is the uncertainty on final state interactions, either reaction or elastic, of various hadrons on argon since the scattering of neutrino-induced hadrons off argon bias the hadron's measured energy. It can also prevent algorithms from identifying the hadron's particle type. Protons, kaons, and pions from the beam are especially important for the DUNE neutrino program as they represent common final state particles in neutrino interactions off a nucl eus. Therefore, ProtoDUNE is analyzing the test beam data to measure cross sections of pions, protons, and kaons on argon, aiming to tune parameters that model charged particle scattering off argon. This talk will discuss the data-taking program for ProtoDUNE and an overview of the status and results of measuring cross sections of pions, protons, and kaons on argon. It will conclude with a brief overview of how these measurements can be used for future liquid argon neutrino detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1981

The Theory and Practice of Estimating the Accuracy of Dynamic Flight-Determined Coefficients

Means of assessing the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained from dynamic flight data are discussed. The most commonly used analytical predictors of accuracy are derived and compared from both statistical and simplified geometrics standpoints. The accuracy predictions are evaluated with real and simulated data, with an emphasis on practical considerations, such as modeling error. Improved computations of the Cramer-Rao bound to correct large discrepancies due to colored noise and modeling error are presented. The corrected Cramer-Rao bound is shown to be the best available analytical predictor of accuracy, and several practical examples of the use of the Cramer-Rao bound are given. Engineering judgement, aided by such analytical tools, is the final arbiter of accuracy estimation.

Maine, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Selection of optimum median-filter-based ambiguity removal algorithm parameters for NSCAT

The NASA Scatterometer, NSCAT, is an active spaceborne radar designed to measure the normalized radar backscatter coefficient (sigma0) of the ocean surface. These measurements can, in turn, be used to infer the surface vector wind over the ocean using a geophysical model function. Several ambiguous wind vectors result because of the nature of the model function. A median-filter-based ambiguity removal algorithm will be used by the NSCAT ground data processor to select the best wind vector from the set of ambiguous wind vectors. This process is commonly known as dealiasing or ambiguity removal. The baseline NSCAT ambiguity removal algorithm and the method used to select the set of optimum parameter values are described. An extensive simulation of the NSCAT instrument and ground data processor provides a means of testing the resulting tuned algorithm. This simulation generates the ambiguous wind-field vectors expected from the instrument as it orbits over a set of realistic meoscale wind fields. The ambiguous wind field is then dealiased using the median-based ambiguity removal algorithm. Performance is measured by comparison of the unambiguous wind fields with the true wind fields. Results have shown that the median-filter-based ambiguity removal algorithm satisfies NSCAT mission requirements.

Shaffer, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1992

HiRel - Reliability/availability integrated workstation tool

The HiRel software tool is described and demonstrated by application to the mission avionics subsystem of the Advanced System Integration Demonstrations (ASID) system that utilizes the PAVE PILLAR approach. HiRel marks another accomplishment toward the goal of producing a totally integrated computer-aided design (CAD) workstation design capability. Since a reliability engineer generally represents a reliability model graphically before it can be solved, the use of a graphical input description language increases productivity and decreases the incidence of error. The graphical postprocessor module HARPO makes it possible for reliability engineers to quickly analyze huge amounts of reliability/availability data to observe trends due to exploratory design changes. The addition of several powerful HARP modeling engines provides the user with a reliability/availability modeling capability for a wide range of system applications all integrated under a common interactive graphical input-output capability.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗