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DOE OSTI2024

Achieving Unprecedented CO 2 Utilization InCO 2 Concrete™: System Design, Product Development and Process Demonstration

Anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide are generated from a number of sources, but the key among these are ordinary Portland cement (OPC) production and combustion of fossil fuels. Cement production is the largest global CO 2 source from the mineral decomposition of carbonates. This is due to the clinkering process whereby limestone (mainly consisting of CaCO 3 ) is decomposed into CaO and CO 2 , and combined with silica rich clays at high temperatures to form clinkers (i.e. the four key minerals that comprise cement). The high temperature range of 1400 – 1550°C required for this process accounts for up to 60% of the generated CO 2 from cement production. Combination of the limestone decomposition and thermal requirements of the clinkering process causes cement production to contribute 8-9% of annual global CO 2 emissions. Combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) was shown to contribute a much larger portion of global CO 2 emissions. As of 2018, combustion of fossil fuels accounted for 65% of global CO 2 , where 41% was derived from stationary sources for electricity and heat generation and the other 24% was related to transport. To reduce these contributions, key steps forward in CO 2 utilization technologies are required. Therefore, a CO 2 mineralization technology (CO 2 mineralization concrete) to reduce the OPC content in concrete, while utilizing flue gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion has been developed to address both areas simultaneously. This Reversa™ technology utilizes low-carbon cementation agents produced by in situ CO 2 mineralization (“mineral carbonation reactions”) to offer a promising alternative to OPC. CO 2 mineralization relies upon the reaction of dissolved CO 2 with inorganic alkaline reactants to precipitate mineral carbonates (e.g., CaCO 3 ), which bind proximate particles and achieve cementation. Herein, a concrete green body, which is composed of a mixture of binder, water, and mineral aggregates, is exposed to CO 2 borne in industrial flue gas streams. This manner of CO 2 mineralization allows the production of construction components that feature equivalent engineering attributes as their OPC-based counterparts while featuring a much smaller embodied carbon intensity (eCI). The purpose of this project is to demonstrate the feasibility of the Reversa process evolving from a TRL-3 technology at the bench-scale up to TRL-6 technology at the pilot-scale. The reliability of the Reversa technology was tested to prove the effective production of three standard industrial concrete products selected during the course of the project. The results detailed herein will demonstrate the evolution of this technology to the industrial scale. The culmination of this work resulted in 9 production runs completed at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC), Wilsonville, AL, using natural gas (NG) flue gas as the CO 2 source. Over the course of the production runs at NCCC, the CO 2 utilization as a function of time, 24-h CO 2 uptake, electricity usage, and 28-d net area compressive strength recorded for each run. Collection of this data will be used to determine the success of the demonstration goals: (1) achieving in excess of 0.2gCO 2 /g reactant , (2) achieving greater than 50% reduction in global warming potential compared to standard produced units, and (3) ensuring compliance of carbonated concrete with industry standard specifications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Report: Process Intensification of Hydrogen Production through Sorption-Enhanced Gasification of Biomass

The University of Utah, in partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), evaluated Sorption-Enhanced Gasification (SEG) as a transformative pathway for producing hydrogen with the potential for negative CO 2 emissions. SEG integrates gasification, water-gas shift, and in-situ carbon capture within a dual fluidized bed reactor to enable efficient clean hydrogen production. Key challenges related to biomass variability and process complexity were addressed through feedstock engineering, reaction optimization, and process validation. A co-pelletized biomass–limestone feedstock was developed to simplify feeding and introduction of makeup limestone. Kinetic and sorbent studies identified optimal operating conditions and confirmed the suitability of low-cost limestone, while catalysts were developed to reduce tar formation. Reactor modeling and techno-economic analysis indicated that SEG can achieve competitive hydrogen production costs, particularly when combined with carbon incentives, supporting its potential for scale-up and carbon-negative operation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low-Environmental-Impact Monitoring of CO 2 Using Seismic Methods in North Dakota

Conference poster presented at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference, Houston, Texas, March 28–30, 2022. In 2021, the Energy & Environmental Research Center initiated a multiyear research project associated with Red Trail Energy’s Carbon Capture and Storage Project. The research is based on the scalable automated sparse seismic array (SASSA), a lower-cost, less invasive seismic method that could replace the large-scale 3D seismic surveys by using four stationary seismic sources called surface orbital vibrators (SOVs) and a small number of seismic sensors deployed sparsely within the same 8-square-mile area investigated with a 3D seismic survey conducted in 2019.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Modeling Report for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP has been investigating various reservoir characterization and modeling technologies related to Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) in conjunction with carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) operations in multiple Silurian-age (Niagaran), oil-bearing, carbonate pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, USA. This report provides a comprehensive discussion of reservoir modeling studies that were conducted for tracking oil production, forecasting CO 2 plume migration, and estimating associated storage in a number of reefs that were at different stages of their CO 2 -EOR life cycle. The modeling process for simulating oil production, CO 2 injection, and associated storage in these reefs entails two phases. The first phase, geologic framework modeling, integrates all pertinent geological and geophysical data (from logs, cores and seismic surveys) about reservoir structure, geometry, rock types, and property distributions (porosity, permeability, water saturation) into a 3-D distributed grid-based static earth model (SEM). The second phase, dynamic reservoir modeling, uses the SEM as a platform to simulate the movement of oil, gas, water, and CO 2 within the reservoir during primary hydrocarbon production, as well as during subsequent phases such as CO 2 -injection assisted EOR, plume migration, and associated storage. In addition, an assessment of coupled process effects is also carried out, where the impacts of geochemical and geo-mechanical processed induced by CO 2 injection are studied.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Diurnal Radiative, Turbulent, and Biophysical Processes in the Amazonian Canopy‐Atmosphere Interface by Combining LES Simulations and Observations

Abstract We investigate the atmospheric diurnal variability inside and above the Amazonian rainforest for a representative day during the dry season. To this end, we combine high‐resolution large‐eddy simulations that are constrained and evaluated against a comprehensive observation set, including CO 2 concentrations, gathered during GoAmazon2014/15. We design systematic numerical experiments to quantify whether a multilayer approach in solving the explicit canopy improves our canopy‐atmosphere representation. We particularly focus on the relationship between photosynthesis and plant transpiration, and their distribution at leaf and canopy scales. We found the variability of photosynthesis drivers like vapor pressure deficit and leaf temperature to be about 3 times larger for sunlit leaves compared to shaded leaves. This leads to a large spread on leaf stomatal conductance values with minimum and maximum values varying more than 100%. Regarding the turbulent structure, we find wind‐driven stripe‐like shapes at the canopy top and structures resembling convective cells at the canopy. Wind‐related variables provide the best spatiotemporal agreement between model and observations. The potential temperature and heat flux profiles agree with an observed decoupling near the canopy top interface, although with less variability and cold biases of up to 3 K. The increasing complexity on the biophysical processes leads to the largest disagreements for evaporation, CO 2 plant assimilation and soil efflux. The model is able to capture the correct dependences and trends with the magnitudes still differing. We finally discuss the need to revise leaf and soil models and to complete the observations at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the exposure of three diving bird species to offshore wind areas on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf using satellite telemetry

Abstract Aim The United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) has considerable offshore wind energy potential. Capturing that resource is part of a broader effort to reduce CO 2 emissions. While few turbines have been constructed in U.S. waters, over a dozen currently planned offshore wind projects have the potential to displace marine birds, potentially leading to effective habitat loss. We focused on three diving birds identified in Europe to be vulnerable to displacement. Our research aimed to determine their potential exposure to areas designated or proposed for offshore wind development along the Atlantic OCS. Methods Satellite tracking technology was used to determine the spatial and temporal use and movement patterns of Surf Scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ), Red‐throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) and Northern Gannets ( Morus bassanus ), and calculate their exposure to each offshore wind area. We tagged 236 adults in 2012–2015 on the Atlantic OCS from New Jersey to North Carolina; an additional 147 birds tagged in previous tracking studies were integrated into our analyses. Tracking data were analysed in two‐week intervals using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to develop composite spatial utilization distributions. For each species, these distributions were then used to calculate the spatio‐temporal exposure to each offshore wind area. Results Surf Scoters and Red‐throated Loons were exposed to offshore wind areas almost exclusively during migration because these species were distributed among coastal and inshore waters during winter months. In contrast, Northern Gannets ranged over a much larger area, reaching farther offshore and south in winter, thus exhibited the greatest exposure to extant offshore wind areas. Conclusions Results of this study provide better understanding of how diving birds use current and potential future offshore wind areas on the Atlantic OCS, and can inform permitting, risk assessment and pre‐ and post‐construction impact assessments of offshore energy infrastructure.

Stenhouse, Iain J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Carbon Capture Behavior of Carbon Fibers via Ionic Liquid Modification

Carbon-based materials are widely deployed in carbon capture but are only limited to physisorption procedures. Further extending functionalized carbon materials to CO 2 chemisorption under low CO 2 concentration is highly desirable yet challenging. In this study, a carbon fiber composed of solely ultra-micropores (~0.45 nm) was deployed as the precursor to avoid the pore blocking effect, which was modified by superbase-derived ionic liquids (ILs) containing strong interaction sites with CO 2 . By forming a thin coating layer on the surface, the as-afforded surface-functionalized fiber materials demonstrated enhanced CO 2 uptake capacity and improved CO 2 sorption kinetics, as evaluated by both the volumetric method and thermogravimetric analysis, as well as the calculated energy distribution curves. The achievements made in this work provide guidance on the functionalization of carbon-based materials towards enhanced CO 2 chemisorption by forming a thin layer of selected IL coating.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical study of CO2 capture mechanisms of SrO and Sr(OH)2.nH2O (n=0,1,8)

In this presentation, the adsorption reactions of CO2 on SrO surfaces and its hydrated counterparts are examined. The predicted energies of CO2 adsorption on follows the order of increasing H2O content. The carbonation on the monohydrate surface is barrierless, whereas the CO2 reaction on the Sr(OH)2 and the octahydrate surfaces follows pathways with finite activation barriers. The thermodynamics of bulk reaction is also addressed.

computational science and engineering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wyoming Trails Carbon Hub (WyoTCH)

The Wyoming Trails Carbon Hub (WyoTCH) project completed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study for a commercial-scale, open-access carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transport pipeline in Wyoming under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Award DEFE0032347, funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Carbon Capture Technology Program and administered by the National Energy Technology Laboratory. The project’s approach of designing a multi-source, multi-destination pipeline, rather than a dedicated line serving a single project, would lower the barrier to entry for individual CO 2 projects. The projects would leverage Wyoming's concentrated industrial and power generation CO 2 sources, its existing CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, and its extensive CO 2 storage and utilization capacity. This is the project's final technical report.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

NH 4 OH Looping with Membrane CO 2 Absorber and Distributed Stripper for Enhanced Algae Growth

The University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER) has devised a unique, integrated CO2 capture and utilization technology. CO2 from coal-fired power generation flue gas is first captured at half the operating cost of a typical aqueous CO2 capture system (CCS), distributed in an aqueous stream and then fixed by algae in bioreactors where the algae production is increased by 50% over that with a typical intermittent nutrient feeding system. Lower CCS operating cost is achieved by eliminating the flue gas pretreatment step for cooling and SO2 removal, eliminating steam extraction from the power generation steam cycle for solvent regeneration, and eliminating CO2 compression. Higher algae production is achieved by continuous, just-in-time nutrient feed to the bioreactors directly from a distributed solvent regenerator, which maintains the bioreactor pH for optimum growth. The process starts with a uniquely configured membrane absorber, where the flue gas is indirectly contacted with an ammonium hydroxide (NH4OH) solvent. Dissolved NH3 is attractive for both CO2 capture and as an algae nutrient. For CO2 capture it is inexpensive, has a low regeneration energy, is thermally- and oxidatively-stable and has a viscosity near that of water, which makes is easy to transport. Numerous studies have shown that the scrubbing capacity of NH3 is approximately 0.9-1.2 kg of CO2/kg of NH3, with a CO2 removal efficiency of ~99% and half the solvent regeneration energy than that of 30 wt% MEA[1, 2, 3]. NH3 is attractive as an algae nutrient due to its low cost. The rich NH4OH solvent is pumped to a set of distributed regenerators which are co-located with the algae bioreactors. Solvent pumping, transport and distribution reduces the balance of plant (BOP) cost compared to a typical aqueous CCS related to the flue gas duct and boost fan required to transport the flue gas. The energy required for the distributed solvent regeneration is supplied by solar-thermal panels eliminating the need for steam extraction from the power generation steam cycle. After solvent regeneration, the product stream contains both the CO2 captured from the flue gas and volatized NH3 from the solvent. This product stream is fed directly to the bioreactors, eliminating the need for compression of the CO2 stream. The relative amounts of CO2 and NH3 in the product stream are adjusted and controlled by a controlling the regeneration conditions (pressure and temperature). The continuous feed of the right ratio of nutrients overcomes the typical inhibition of algae growth resulting from frequent pH swings in the bioreactor due to unbalanced (intermittent) feeding systems for CO2 and N. Also, because the regenerators will operate at pressure and be located in close proximity to the bioreactors, there is no worry about pressure drop when sparging the gas into the algae. Sparging produces small bubbles which is beneficial for mass transfer efficiency. One known challenge when using an NH4OH solvent is high NH3 emission. Hydrophobic membranes are used for CO2 capture using an aqueous NH3 solution[4, 5] without the direct contact between flue gas and aqueous solution. Additionally, UK CAER CO2 capture and utilization process manages NH3 slip in three extra measures. First, NH3 slip is minimized by working with minimal species partial pressure, which is proportional to the concentration in the liquid. Hence, lowering the capture solvent concentration will lower the NH3 partial pressure. Second, UK CAER’s previous work has demonstrated that the addition of Zn2+ into NH3 solutions to chelate the NH3 can reduce NH3 volatility. Third, the configuration of the membrane CO2 absorber utilizes condensed water from the flue gas to continually wash the gas-side of the membrane to reduce fouling and recapture NH3 slip. Additional details about the UK CAER unique, integrated CO2 capture and utilization technology will be presented along with technology development plans. Diao, N., Q. Li, and Z. Fang. 2004. Heat transfer in ground heat exchangers with groundwater advection. International Journal of Thermal Sciences. 43: 1203-1211, He, Q., M. Chen, L. Meng, K. Liu, and W. Pan. 2004. Study on Carbon Dioxide Removal from Flue Gas by Absorption of Aqueous Ammonia. Western Kentucky University. Yeh, A.C., and H. Bai. 1999. Comparison of ammonia and monoethanolamine solvents to reduce CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. The Science of the Total Environment. 228: 121-133, Villeneuve, K., D. Roizard, J.C. Remigy, M. Iacono, and S. Rode. 2018. CO2 capture by aqueous ammonia with hollow fiber membrane contactors: Gas phase reactions and performance stability. Separation and Purification Technology, 199: 189-197, Toro Molina, C., and C. Bouallou. 2016. Carbon dioxide absorption by ammonia intensified with membrane contactors. Clean Techn Environ Policy 18, 2133–2146 (2016)

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Designing an innovation system to support profitable electro- and bio-catalytic carbon upgrade

Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) can mitigate an estimated 14–20% of CO 2 emissions by 2050. Here, we evaluate an integrated electrocatalysis and biocatalysis CCUS pathway, using externally-supplied renewable electricity to convert over 12 MtCO 2 to poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) via methanol and formate intermediates. A techno-economic and policy-innovation analysis provides insight into global CCUS innovation. Results suggest that innovation should focus on improving methanol faradaic efficiency, formate biocatalysis efficiency, electrocatalysis current density, and catalyst performance. Methanol and formate composition influences performance, but higher formate content can improve economics by US$3.8B over a 30 year lifetime. Profitable scenarios hinge on reducing methanol separation costs – through innovation or reduced energy usage – along with cheap renewable electricity and/or carbon pricing. Our evaluation of the global innovation status signifies that coordinated strategies are required to realise emissions cuts from CCUS. Innovation can be spurred by targeted investments and policies that promote emissions reductions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Inlet Temperature Combustor for Direct-Fired Supercritical Oxy-Combustion

It is envisioned that supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) electric power plant efficiencies can exceed 52% with 99% carbon capture using direct-fired oxy-combustion. Such efficiencies would be competitive with Natural Gas Combined Cycles (NGCC) and operate with nearly zero carbon emissions. To achieve high plant efficiencies, turbine inlet conditions must approach 1,200 °C at 250 bar. Such conditions, while desirable from a systems perspective, exceed the current state of the art in turbine design and materials qualification. The team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Spectral Energies, LLC (Spectral), GE Global Research (GE-GRC), and the University of Central Florida (UCF) sought to demonstrate an intermediate step toward these high efficiency plants with the development of a 1 MWth, subscale direct-fired oxy-fuel combustor. The efforts focused largely on the development of an auto-ignition based combustion system capable of providing the targeted 1200 °C and the pilot-scale plant to operate the combustor. While the project was stopped short of the commissioning and demonstration work, the advances made in this effort will reduce risks associated with chemical kinetics, thermal management, water separation, flue gas cleanup, materials selection, and corrosion in future demonstration efforts for the direct-fired oxy-fuel combustion cycles. The following report documents the design, analysis, and installation efforts completed during the project periods of performance.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Permitting Commercial-Scale Carbon Dioxide Geologic Storage

Conference presentation at Energy Generation Conference, Bismarck, North Dakota, January 29-30, 2020. An overview of the Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership Initiative and the steps to implement commercial carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) activity in North Dakota. Includes solutions for CCUS deployment challenges.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Carbon Dioxide Refinery: The Core of a Sustainable Carbon-based Circular Economy

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) accumulation (2–2.5 ppmv/year) is the result of the enormous gap between its emissions (37 Gton/year) and its capture, storage, and utilization (<500 Mton/year). Climate has been dramatically affected due to the failure of natural sinks, in working effectively. To address this Gton-scale gap, numerous uses and applications are needed particularly, those consuming vast volumes of this compound and/or rendering longevous products or long lifecycle services. Thus, carbon utilization (CU) can be seen as the step to close the carbon cycle. Among CU, R&D on CO 2 chemical conversion has proposed a variety of processes, with different degrees of developmental maturity. These chemical process technologies could be efficiently and effectively integrated into refineries to upgrade emitted CO 2 . A technology pipeline consisting of a database of these processes and the technology market status should be defined based on published scientific results and patents. Then, an innovative top-down methodology is proposed to eco-design configurations of that refinery, to warrant a sustainable carbon cycle (in terms of energy, environment, and economy) and to change the ways of producing fuels, chemicals, and materials. Additionally, the proposed methodology could be used to identify research and development gaps and needs, for orienting science and technology investments and measures. Hopefully, sustainable CO 2 refineries will be implemented to close the carbon cycle of a circular C-based economy and underpin a decarbonized chemical industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗