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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Climate Risks to Midwest Infrastructure Workshop

Stakeholders in industry, agriculture, and city governments are struggling to understand how to manage climate change risks. Climate scientists, meanwhile, want to know what specific information their fellow citizens need from them to take action.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Makah Tribe Climate Assessment, Adaptation, and Resilience Planning

Our aim was to develop a Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan through gathering community input through personal interviews and individual surveys, building from our Climate Impacts Assessment work completed in 2018. This project has collected traditional, cultural, and local knowledge to support the ongoing multi-departmental environmental planning processes of the Makah Tribe. This information was then used to identify specific human wellbeing indicators to inform and enhance Makah tribal policy, management, and decision-making processes. Combined our tribal environmental planning to include the work of the Tribal Resilience Work Group (TRWG) and Oil Spill Work Group (OSWG), which relied on publicly available Western science-based data. While this information provided a strong basis for tribal environmental planning, it does not capture the unique traditional, cultural needs, and local knowledge and tribal voices of the Makah community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Smart Ventilation Controls for Occupancy and Auxiliary Fan Use Across U.S. Climates

Smart Ventilation has been developed as a way to reduce the energy associated with ventilation by changing when ventilation happens and how much ventilation occurs at any given time. In high performance buildings with low envelope and appliance related loads, ventilation is becoming a bigger part of the total building energy use and needs to be addressed if performance targets are to be met. This work explores the development and performance of smart ventilation controls based on occupancy and auxiliary fan operation that provide annual dwelling unit ventilation equivalence to ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. A prototype high performance home compliant with U.S. DOE Building America Zero Energy Ready program requirements was simulated using the REGCAP tool with and without smart controls across 15 U.S. DOE climate zones. Balanced and unbalanced IAQ fans were independently simulated, and all smart controlled fans had airflows double the reference 62.2-2016 airflow. Three idealized occupancy patterns were examined: 1st shift (a typical daily work/school absence), an extended 1st shift with more time spent out of the home evenings and weekends and 3rd shift (night work). The Occupancy controller turns the IAQ fan off during unoccupied periods, and it resumes ventilation upon their return. While unoccupied, contaminants are allowed to accumulate in the space, because occupants are not exposed to these contaminants. When occupants return home, they are exposed to these higher contaminant concentrations, and the controller increases the ventilation rate sufficiently to ensure equivalence with a continuous IAQ fan. Accounting for pollutant emissions that occur during unoccupied periods (as required by ASHRAE 62.2-2016), sharply distinguishes our occupancy controls from past Demand Controlled Ventilation systems. This new accounting method results in equivalent contaminant exposure, as well as lower reductions in average ventilation rates and lower energy savings. Smart controls were demonstrated that saved HVAC energy (i.e., avoided heating/cooling load, as well as fan energy)—averaging between 6 and 46% of ventilation-related energy use depending on the control strategy and occupancy pattern assumptions. The greatest savings were in the combined Auxiliary Fan + Occupancy control. Energy savings increased with climate heating demand and longer unoccupied time periods. The 3rd shift occupancy pattern had better performance, due to the thermal benefit of reducing the ventilation rate during the cold nighttime hours. This same effect provided a cooling energy benefit in hotter locations for the 1st shift. Overall, savings from occupancy-based smart controls were low, because of the recovery period required after occupants return home, during which the airflow is double the 62.2 reference. This recovery is required to maintain equivalence with the ASHRAE standard. Occupancy-based control performance was improved when combined with sensing auxiliary fans and when providing a pre-occupancy flush out of one- or two-hours. Performance was similarly improved if the ASHRAE Standard were to recognize that pollutant emissions are lower during unoccupied periods, iii allowing a lower target ventilation rate during unoccupied periods (not currently in the standard) (see Full vs. Half AEQ in this report). Finally, over-sized unbalanced fans that are cycled on-and-off by a smart controller (or timer) were found to substantially increase annual average air exchange and energy use relative to a continuous unbalanced fan due to the effects of superposition with natural infiltration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhanced Atmospheric Research at the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Final Report)

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was an international scientific expedition into the central Arctic sea ice to study the changing atmosphere-ice-ocean system and its key physical, chemical, and biological processes in a way that will support improved understanding and modeling of Arctic climate. The US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Research Measurement (ARM) Program operated its second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) as a major contribution to the expedition, and the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program supported this project to maximize the success of DOE’s involvement in MOSAiC. This project has enabled the successful collection of data through support of field operations plans, in-field operational implementation, oversight of real-time data quality, and representing DOE’s interests within the broader international MOSAiC endeavor. The project has promoted scientific research by facilitating and leading a number of efforts to develop value-added products that will support research, including products related to aerosol properties, trace gases, cloud properties, snowfall, the surface energy budget, and a merged product designed for model assessment. These products and related analyses have also contributed to numerous scientific publications on related themes as well as direct model evaluation. Lastly, the project has engaged in a great deal of communication and outreach activities that help to publicize and promote both MOSAiC and DOE’s specific contribution to a broad audience that includes the scientific community, program management, policy makers, and the general public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Seasonal Energy Performance for Room Air Conditioners in Multiple Climates

This report provides a general approach for adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric by examining the climate-specific temperature bin distribution for air conditioner use, the seasonal energy efficiency results according to International Standards Organization (ISO) 16358 by climate region, and the relationships in seasonal energy efficiency across regional metrics. This approach could make the seasonal efficiency metric values comparable with those from other countries with standards consistent with ISO 16358. Policy action and market transformation can be accelerated and effectively harmonized with other regional or international efforts by adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric. The framework and methodology described in this report have been applied in the following publications: Shaffie et al. 2022, Park et al. 2021, Park et al. 2019, and UNEP 2019a.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

Understanding the future changes in projected water supplies is a vital objective for federal hydropower facilities tasked with providing low-cost, reliable electricity across a large regional footprint that encompasses a growing customer base, alternative market structures for marketing the electricity, and a more diverse generation asset mix than was historically present when a majority of federal hydropower facilities were built. This study, The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, directed by Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (SWA), is the third quinquennial report on evaluating the effects of climate change on hydroelectric energy generated from 132 US federal hydropower plants marketed by four US Department of Energy (DOE) Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs). The technical assessment is conducted by DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University under the guidance of DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office. This study is the result of extensive consultation with the four federal PMAs (Bonneville Power Administration [BPA], Western Area Power Administration [WAPA], Southwestern Power Administration [SWPA], and Southeastern Power Administration [SEPA]), as well as other agencies, including federal hydropower owners/operators (the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Bureau of Reclamation [Reclamation]), US Geological Survey, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The main findings of this assessment, along with the PMA administrators’ recommendations, will be included in a subsequent DOE report to Congress. The assessment method and the technical findings are described in this report.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Porting a fast-running wildfire plume model for use in national security and climate applications

In this project, the code for the fast-running Freitas wildfire plume model was successfully ported into the NARAC system, creating an operations-ready capability for predicting the transport of hazardous smoke from large wildfires. “Porting” refers to copying a section of code from one software package to another while accounting for unique dependencies in each software package. In this case, the code was ported from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which is used extensively by the project team. To verify correct implementation, model results from the updated NARAC system were compared to those from WRF and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model, which also employs the Freitas scheme. The NARAC User Interface (UI) and code documentation were also updated to include the new wildfire plume option, and a wildfire case was added to the NARAC test suite. The code was used in a real-time, semi-operational setup to predict smoke transport during the Cerro Pelado fire near Los Alamos National Laboratory in May 2022. The Freitas plume model was also tested for LLNL climate applications. Although the code was not ported into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), it was tested offline using E3SM atmospheric inputs, and results were compared to existing high-resolution plume predictions from large-eddy simulations in WRF. The code implementation and testing completed during this project will enable future work predicting smoke transport from large wildfires in LLNL national security and climate mission spaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategies and Approaches for Developing Hands-On Training for Cold Climate Heat Pumps

The International Center for Appropriate and Sustainable Technology (ICAST) is in the process of implementing a program funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in which they are providing cold climate heat pump (CCHP) curriculum and training to HVAC workers, ranging from entry to experienced levels. They have coordinated with Santa Fe Community College (SFCC) to develop online curricula, and through their involvement with the DOE Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator, they requested technical assistance from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to help them develop programs that incorporate hands-on and on-the-job skills training and job placement services in coordination with local employers. This report offers a step-by step-overview of the process for developing a new workforce development and hands-on training program in a new region, outlining practices to help understand the market, and to effectively recruit, train, and connect people to HVAC jobs installing cold climate heat pumps.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Science & Technology Review: Climate Change Comes into Focus

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world. The cover image shows a simulation run on the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) state-of-the-science Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM), which leverages DOE’s advanced supercomputers for climate and earth science research. As the article beginning on p. 4 describes, the newly released version 2 will be used to simulate aspects of Earth’s variability at weather-scale resolution and investigate decadal changes in climate that will critically impact the United States in coming years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 38 th Annual Interdisciplinary Plant Group Symposium: Enhancing the Resilience of Plant Systems to Climate Change (Meeting Summary)

The University of Missouri’s Interdisciplinary Plant Group held its 38th annual symposium on May 25–27. In short, it was a resounding success! The air was almost electric because of a confluence of events that were particular to this symposium. Not only was there great enthusiasm from students attending their first ever scientific meeting, but this was coupled with excitement and delight exuded by many of our senior invited speakers, who were attending their first in-person meeting since the Covid pandemic began. After a long planning period, and with the ongoing pandemic injecting uncertainty, it was gratifying to see the symposium unfold with such excitement and engagement among participants. The symposium was organized to address the grand challenge of “Enhancing the Resilience of Plant System to Climate Change”, by bringing together experts at the intersections of multiple disciplines to educate our community on the opportunities to develop innovative mitigation strategies and to adapt plants to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Key Drivers and Climate Impacts (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to investigate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) using a hierarchical modeling framework to advance our process-level understanding on the respective roles of, and the feedback between, the key drivers of the AMV, in particular the ocean circulation associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and stochastic atmospheric forcing, primarily due to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The focus was primarily on the AMV due to natural variability, but the investigation will be extended to the possible modulation on the main characteristics of AMV under external climate forcing. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the AMV, with a special emphasis on the possible augmentation of predictability the AMV may bring to the regional weather and climate of North America, Western Europe, and the Arctic. Under this goal, we have published 15 peer-reviewed journal papers, and presented our results in more than 30 conferences over the project duration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Better Climate Challenge: Greenhouse Gas Reporting Guidance

Better Climate Challenge Greenhouse Gas Reporting Guidance document can help you define the scope of your commitment, set your goal and base year, and annually report progress toward your goal for Better Climate Challenge Program. You will share GHG emissions and energy data across your building/plant portfolio with DOE, including owned and operated fleets. This document provides instructional guidance on how to quantify GHG emissions across your organization. Establishing an accurate GHG inventory is a critical first step to developing a plan to reduce emissions across your organization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications

Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗