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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

Developments in Atmosphere Revitalization Modeling and Simulation

"NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program is pioneering new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities, and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit" (NASA 2012). These forays beyond the confines of earth's gravity will place unprecedented demands on launch systems. They must not only blast out of earth's gravity well as during the Apollo moon missions, but also launch the supplies needed to sustain a crew over longer periods for exploration missions beyond earth's moon. Thus all spacecraft systems, including those for the separation of metabolic carbon dioxide and water from a crewed vehicle, must be minimized with respect to mass, power, and volume. Emphasis is also placed on system robustness both to minimize replacement parts and ensure crew safety when a quick return to earth is not possible. Current efforts are focused on improving the current state-of-the-art systems utilizing fixed beds of sorbent pellets by evaluating structured sorbents, seeking more robust pelletized sorbents, and examining alternate bed configurations to improve system efficiency and reliability. These development efforts combine testing of sub-scale systems and multi-physics computer simulations to evaluate candidate approaches, select the best performing options, and optimize the configuration of the selected approach, which is then implemented in a full-scale integrated atmosphere revitalization test. This paper describes the development of atmosphere revitalization models and simulations. A companion paper discusses the hardware design and sorbent screening and characterization effort in support of the Atmosphere Revitalization Recovery and Environmental Monitoring (ARREM) project within the AES program.

Knox, James C.↗

How does increasing horizontal resolution in a global climate model improve the simulation of aerosol-cloud interactions?

The Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 degrees, with the meteorology nudged towards the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those of droplet nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. The annual average AIF in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m⁻² (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m⁻² reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.

Ma, Po -Lun↗

Modal Bin Hybrid Model: A Surface Area Consistent, Triple Moment Sectional Method for Use in Process-oriented Modeling of Atmospheric Aerosols

A triple moment sectional method, Modal Bin Hybrid Model (MBHM), has been developed. In addition to number and mass (volume), surface area is predicted (and preserved), which is important for gas-to-particle mass transfer and light extinction cross section. The performance of MBHM was evaluated against double moment sectional (DMS) methods with various size resolutions up to BIN256 (BINx: x is number of sections over three orders of magnitude in size, ΔlogD = 3/x) for simulating evolution of particles under simultaneously occurring nucleation, condensation and coagulation processes. Because MBHM gives a physically consistent form of the intra-sectional distributions, errors and biases of MBHM at BIN4-8 resolution were almost equivalent to those of DMS at BIN16-32 resolution for various important variables such as the moments Mk (k: 0, 2, 3), dMk/dt, and the number and volume of particles larger than a certain diameter. Another important feature of MBHM is that only a single bin is adequate to simulate full aerosol dynamics for particles whose size distribution can be approximated by a single lognormal mode. This flexibility is useful for process-oriented (multi category and/or mixing state) modeling: primary aerosols whose size parameters would not differ substantially in time and space can be expressed by a single or a small number of modes, whereas secondary aerosols whose size changes drastically from one to several hundred nanometers can be expressed by a number of modes. Added dimensions can be applied to MBHM to represent mixing state or photo-chemical age for aerosol mixing state studies.

Kajino, Mizuo↗

A Joint NICER and XMM-Newton View of the "Magnificent" Thermally Emitting X-ray Isolated Neutron Star RX J1605.3+3249

Thermally emitting X-ray isolated neutron stars (NSs) represent excellent targets for testing cooling surface emission and atmosphere models, which are used to infer the physical parameters of the NS. Among the seven known members of this class, RXJ1605.3+3249 is the only one that still lacks confirmation of its spin period. Here we analyze NICER and XMM-Newton observations of RXJ1605.3+3249, in order to address its timing and spectral behavior. Contrary to a previous tentative detection, but in agreement with the recent work by Pires et al., we find no significant pulsation with a pulsed fraction higher than 1.3% (3σ) for periods above 150 ms. We also find a limit of 2.6% for periods above 2 ms, despite searches in different energy bands. The X-ray spectrum can be fit by either a double-blackbody model or by a single-temperature magnetized atmosphere model, both modified by a Gaussian absorption line at ∼0.44 keV. The origin of the absorption feature as a proton cyclotron line or as an atomic transition in the NS atmosphere is discussed. The predictions of the best-fit X-ray models extended to IR, optical, and UV bands, are compared with archival data. Our results are interpreted in the framework of a fallback disk scenario.

Christian Malacaria↗

Atmospheric impacts on EDL maneuver targeting for the InSight mission and unguided Mars landers

Early in operational testing for the InSight mission to Mars, it was discovered that the final maneuver to target the entry-interface point (EIP) was unexpectedly sensitive, in both magnitude and direction, to planned atmosphere model updates that would be based on real-time measurements of the Martian atmosphere by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Upon investigation, the team realized that the Phoenix mission also discovered this sensitivity during its operational testing. A further investigation identified that maneuver sensitivity to real-time atmosphere updates was a result of the fact that both the EFPA and ground target were being held fixed, constraining the maneuver in a way that forced the entry time to change in order to compensate for changes to the nominal trajectory from updating the atmosphere model. The final maneuver occurs 22 hours prior to entry, at which point it is very expensive to change entry time. The study also revealed that any unguided Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) mission would be impacted by this sensitivity if it used real-time atmosphere observations to model the nominal expected atmosphere used for maneuver targeting of the EIP. This paper discusses the results of that investigation and presents a number of mitigations as well as the consequences of ignoring the sensitivity.

Kipp, Devin↗

Calculations of the limb radiance of Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm region and their application to spacecraft navigation.

Limb radiance profiles for Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm spectral band are derived for two sets of model atmospheres. The radiance computations make use of a strong line transmission model. Both an extreme variability atmospheric model set and a normal variability set are derived and discussed, as are the effects of clouds and surface pressure uncertainties. A horizon locator concept based on the derived radiance profiles is presented, through its implementation in a conceptual systems design. The locator concept developed shows promise of locating the Venus limb to better than 2 km accuracy at the horizon, or 0.05 deg for a 500-km orbit.

Ohring, G.↗

A linear feedback guidance law for an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle

The sensitivity of the trajectory of an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle (AMOOS) to unpredictable variations in atmospheric density is shown and a compensating guidance law is developed. The sensitivity was determined using a varying atmosphere model whose statistical properties matched those of actual atmosphere data. This study showed that a compensating guidance law is crucial to the feasibility of AMOOS. Using an optimal regulator approach, a linear feedback law for bank angle was developed and checked out with the atmosphere model. This law uses the altitude profile of the trajectory to control the amount of energy dissipated within the atmosphere.

Rehder, J. J.↗

On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models

The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0

This report documents the GEOS-5 global atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), including the versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0, which have been implemented in products distributed for use by various NASA instrument team algorithms and ultimately for the Modem Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The DAS is the integration of the GEOS-5 atmospheric model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, a joint analysis system developed by the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The primary performance drivers for the GEOS DAS are temperature and moisture fields suitable for the EOS instrument teams, wind fields for the transport studies of the stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry communities, and climate-quality analyses to support studies of the hydrological cycle through MERRA. The GEOS-5 atmospheric model has been approved for open source release and is available from: http://opensource.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/GEOS-5/GEOS-5.php.

M. M. Rienecker↗

Characterization of low-mass, wide-separation substellar companions to stars in upper SCORPIUS: Near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy

We present new 0.9–2.45 μm spectroscopy (R∼1000 ), and Y, J, H, K{sub s}, L{sup ′} photometry, obtained at Gemini North, of three low-mass brown dwarf companions on wide orbits around young stars of the Upper Scorpius OB association: HIP 78530 B, [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B, and GSC 06214-00210 B. We use these data to assess the companions’ spectral type, temperature, surface gravity, and mass, as well as the ability of the BT-SETTL and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models to reproduce the spectral features of young substellar objects. For completeness, we also analyze the archival spectroscopy and photometry of the Upper Scorpius planetary mass companion 1RXS J160929.1-210524 b. Based on a comparison with model spectra we find that the companions, in the above order, have effective temperatures of 2700 ± 100, 2500 ± 200, 2300 ± 100, and 1700 ± 100 K. These temperatures are consistent with our inferred spectral types, respectively M7 β, M9 γ, M9 γ, and L4 γ, obtained from spectral indices and comparisons with templates. From bolometric luminosities estimated from atmosphere model spectra adjusted to our photometry, and using evolution models at 5–10 Myr, we estimate masses of 21–25, 28–70, 14–17, and 7–12 M{sub Jup}, respectively. [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B appears significantly overluminous for its inferred temperature, which explains its higher mass estimate. Synthetic spectra based on the BT-Settl and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models generally offer a good fit to our observed spectra, although our analysis has highlighted a few problems. For example, the best fits in the individual near-infrared bands occur at different model temperatures. Also, temperature estimates based on a comparison of the broadband magnitudes and colors of the companions to synthetic magnitudes from the models are systematically lower than the temperature estimates based on a comparison with synthetic spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Evaluating Model Performance of an Ensemble-based Chemical Data Assimilation System During INTEX-B Field Mission

We present a global chemical data assimilation system using a global atmosphere model, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) with simplified chemistry and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package. DART is a community software facility for assimilation studies using the ensemble Kalman filter approach. Here, we apply the assimilation system to constrain global tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) by assimilating meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind velocity and satellite CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument. We verify the system performance using independent CO observations taken on board the NSFINCAR C-130 and NASA DC-8 aircrafts during the April 2006 part of the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B). Our evaluations show that MOPITT data assimilation provides significant improvements in terms of capturing the observed CO variability relative to no MOPITT assimilation (i.e. the correlation improves from 0.62 to 0.71, significant at 99% confidence). The assimilation provides evidence of median CO loading of about 150 ppbv at 700 hPa over the NE Pacific during April 2006. This is marginally higher than the modeled CO with no MOPITT assimilation (-140 ppbv). Our ensemble-based estimates of model uncertainty also show model overprediction over the source region (i.e. China) and underprediction over the NE Pacific, suggesting model errors that cannot be readily explained by emissions alone. These results have important implications for improving regional chemical forecasts and for inverse modeling of CO sources and further demonstrate the utility of the assimilation system in comparing non-coincident measurements, e.g. comparing satellite retrievals of CO with in-situ aircraft measurements. The work described above also brought to light several short-comings of the data assimilation approach for CO profiles. Because of the limited vertical resolution of the measurement, the retrievals at different altitudes are correlated which can lead to problems with numerical error and overall efficiency. This has resulted in a manuscript that is about to be submitted to JGR:

Arellano, A. F., Jr.↗

Atmosphere variability at Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter science orbit altitudes based on Mars Express Reconstructions

This paper describes the orbit reconstruction of Mars Express (MEX) with the specific goal of estimating the atmospheric density near periapsis and evaluating its variability and predictability. The desired outcome is to validate the covariance analysis assumption of atmospheric variability for the 2005 NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), as well as evaluate the accuracy of the density estimates output from the atmosphere model used by MRO. Topics covered include the MRO atmosphere model, MEX orbit determination and post-fit Doppler residuals, and atmosphere trending statistics gleaned from the orbit reconstructions.

Higas, Earl↗

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

Range of Density Variability from Surface To 120 km Altitude

A re-entry space vehicle development program, such as Project Apollo, requires a knowledge of the variability of atmospheric density from the surface of the earth to re-entry altitude (120 km). This report summarizes the data on density given in the most recent literature on the subject. The range of atmospheric density with respect to the ARDC 1959 Model Atmosphere is determined and shown graphically. From the surface to 30 km altitude abundant information on density is available. From 30 to 90 km altitude the summarized reports of observations made at a limited number of stations have been used. Between 90 and 120 km altitude the density is somewhat speculative, there being but few measurements available. Therefore, the qualitative values for the variability of density above 30 km must be considered tentative. Variations of atmospheric density by latitude and seasons made it necessary to develop a family of curves rather than a single profile. Three curves are presented to show the range of density deviation versus altitudes with respect to the ARDC 1959 Model Atmosphere. Each curve is used for a specific latitude range and season.

Orvel E Smith↗

Spectro-thermometry of M dwarfs and their candidate planets: Too hot, too cool, or just right?

We use moderate-resolution spectra of nearby late K and M dwarf stars with parallaxes and interferometrically determined radii to refine their effective temperatures, luminosities, and metallicities. We use these revised values to calibrate spectroscopic techniques to infer the fundamental parameters of more distant late-type dwarf stars. We demonstrate that, after masking out poorly modeled regions, the newest version of the PHOENIX atmosphere models accurately reproduce temperatures derived bolometrically. We apply methods to late-type hosts of transiting planet candidates in the Kepler field, and calculate effective temperature, radius, mass, and luminosity with typical errors of 57 K, 7%, 11%, and 13%, respectively. We find systematic offsets between our values and those from previous analyses of the same stars, which we attribute to differences in atmospheric models utilized for each study. We investigate which of the planets in this sample are likely to orbit in the circumstellar habitable zone. We determine that four candidate planets (KOI 854.01, 1298.02, 1686.01, and 2992.01) are inside of or within 1σ of a conservative definition of the habitable zone, but that several planets identified by previous analyses are not (e.g., KOI 1422.02 and KOI 2626.01). Only one of the four habitable-zone planets is Earth sized, suggesting a downward revision in the occurrence of such planets around M dwarfs. These findings highlight the importance of measuring accurate stellar parameters when deriving parameters of their orbiting planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗