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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wildfire Smoke Demonstrates Significant and Predictable Black Carbon Light Absorption Enhancements

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is estimated to have the second largest anthropogenic radiative forcing in earth‐systems models (ESMs), but there is significant uncertainty in its impact due to complex mixing with organics. Laboratory‐generated particles show that co‐mixed non‐absorbing material enhances absorption by BC by a factor of 2–3.5 as predicted by optical models. However, weak or no enhancements are often reported for field studies. The cause of lower‐than‐expected absorption is not well understood and implies a lower radiative impact of BC compared to how many ESMs currently treat aerosols. By analyzing BC aerosol particle‐by‐particle we reconcile observed and expected absorption for ambient smoke plumes varying in geographic origin, fuel types, burn conditions, atmospheric age and transport. Although particle‐by‐particle tracking is computationally prohibitive for sophisticated ESMs we show that realistic BC absorption is reliably estimated by bulk properties of the plume providing a suitable parameterization to constrain black carbon radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metabolic Costs of Walking with Weighted Vests

ABSTRACT Introduction The US Army Load Carriage Decision Aid (LCDA) metabolic model is used by militaries across the globe and is intended to predict physiological responses, specifically metabolic costs, in a wide range of dismounted warfighter operations. However, the LCDA has yet to be adapted for vest-borne load carriage, which is commonplace in tactical populations, and differs in energetic costs to backpacking and other forms of load carriage. Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a metabolic model term that accurately estimates the effect of weighted vest loads on standing and walking metabolic rate for military mission-planning and general applications. Methods Twenty healthy, physically active military-age adults (4 women, 16 men; age, 26 ± 8 yr old; height, 1.74 ± 0.09 m; body mass, 81 ± 16 kg) walked for 6 to 21 min with four levels of weighted vest loading (0 to 66% body mass) at up to 11 treadmill speeds (0.45 to 1.97 m·s −1 ). Using indirect calorimetry measurements, we derived a new model term for estimating metabolic rate when carrying vest-borne loads. Model estimates were evaluated internally byk-fold cross-validation and externally against 12 reference datasets (264 total participants). We tested if the 90% confidence interval of the mean paired difference was within equivalence limits equal to 10% of the measured walking metabolic rate. Estimation accuracy, precision, and level of agreement were also evaluated by the bias, standard deviation of paired differences, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), respectively. Results Metabolic rate estimates using the new weighted vest term were statistically equivalent (P< 0.01) to measured values in the current study (bias, −0.01 ± 0.54 W·kg −1 ; CCC, 0.973) as well as from the 12 reference datasets (bias, −0.16 ± 0.59 W·kg −1 ; CCC, 0.963). Conclusions The updated LCDA metabolic model calculates accurate predictions of metabolic rate when carrying heavy backpack and vest-borne loads. Tactical populations and recreational athletes that train with weighted vests can confidently use the simplified LCDA metabolic calculator provided as Supplemental Digital Content to estimate metabolic rates for work/rest guidance, training periodization, and nutritional interventions.

Sport Sciences↗

Carbon-14 terrestrial ages and weathering of 27 meteorites from the southern high plains and adjacent areas (USA)

We report on a series of 27 C-14 terrestrial ages of meteorites from four states in the central and southwestern U.S. These results were compared to the earlier work of Boeckl (1972). Our results showed that the weathering rate for destruction of meteorites is lower than suggested by Boeckl. We estimate a 'half-life' for removal of meteorites of about 10 to 15 ka, similar to that derived for Roosevelt County meteorites. We also studied the weathering of these meteorites compared to terrestrial age. Only a weak correlation was observed, and for these meteorites the degree of weathering can only be taken as a weak indicator of terrestrial residence time. We also measured the delta-C-13 and C-14 and amount of weathering-product carbonates which show some interesting variations with the length of time the meteorites have been exposed to weathering.

Jull, A. J. T.↗

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on the Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) that may effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers on the horizon will leave a performance gap between younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This papers will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bimonthly (payroll data) for true FTE calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs solutions, from simple - full time equivalent (FTE) cost estimating relationships CERs, to complex - CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of different alternatives performance based cost estimating relationships (CERs) and how they get applied into the Center s forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Sterk, Steve↗

Terrestrial planets across space and time

The study of cosmology, galaxy formation, and exoplanets has now advanced to a stage where a cosmic inventory of terrestrial planets (TPs) may be attempted. By coupling semianalytic models of galaxy formation to a recipe that relates the occurrence of planets to the mass and metallicity of their host stars, we trace the population of TPs around both solar-mass (FGK type) and lower-mass (M dwarf) stars throughout all of cosmic history. We find that the mean age of TPs in the local universe is 7±1 Gyr for FGK hosts and 8±1 Gyr for M dwarfs. We estimate that hot Jupiters have depleted the population of TPs around FGK stars by no more than ≈10%, and that only ≈10% of the TPs at the current epoch are orbiting stars in a metallicity range for which such planets have yet to be confirmed. The typical TP in the local universe is located in a spheroid-dominated galaxy with a total stellar mass comparable to that of the Milky Way. When looking at the inventory of planets throughout the whole observable universe, we argue for a total of ≈1×10{sup 19} and ≈5×10{sup 20} TPs around FGK and M stars, respectively. Due to light travel time effects, the TPs on our past light cone exhibit a mean age of just 1.7 ± 0.2 Gyr. These results are discussed in the context of cosmic habitability, the Copernican principle, and searches for extraterrestrial intelligence at cosmological distances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geology of Biblis Patera, Ulysses Patera, and Jovis Tholus, Mars

There are a variety of constructional volcanic features in Tharsis. These features range from Olympus Mons and the Tharsis Montes shields, to the small low shields and fissure eruptions that characterize much of the volcanic plains, to the smaller volcanic constructs in the northeast and western parts of Tharsis. I describe the geology of the western group, which includes Biblis Patera, Ulysses Patera, and Jovis Tholus. Each of these volcanoes has had a unique, and complex geologic history. Biblis Patera is located at 2.3 deg. N, 123.8 deg. The volcano is elongate in a northwesterly direction and has a large, faulted caldera complex. The flanks of the volcano and adjacent plains are characterized by lava flows, northwest-trending graben and troughs, and caldera-concentric graben and troughs. Biblis Patera is approximately 66 x 127 km with an oval 51 x 56 km caldera; the summit elevation is approximately 2 km above the surrounding plains. The constrcut has an estimated volume of 8-22 x 10(exp 3) cu km. Ulysses Patera is located at 2.7 deg. N, 121.3 deg. W and stands approx. 2-3 km above the surrounding plain; flank slopes are approximately 7 deg. to 12 deg. The caldera floor is quite deep, lying 1.8 to 2.2 km below the caldera rim. The caldera has a void volume of approximately 5000 cu km, the total solid mass volume of the volcano is 7-16 x 10(exp 3) cu km. Jovis Tholus is centered at 18.3 deg N; 117.5 deg W; it is a low relief, volcano with gentle flank slopes of between 3 and 8 deg. The construct is dominated by a series of inset calderas which make up the largest fraction of the area. The caldera complex is offset to the southwest side. Total shield dimensions are approximately 77 km (e-wt) by 62 km (n-s); the caldera complex is approximately 44 x 34 km. The shield is embayed on all sides by younger Amazonian age volcanics. Total relief, relative to the surrounding plains, is probably approximately 2 km. The total volume of Jovis Tholus is estimated to be approximately 2-5 x 10(exp 3) cu km.

Plescia, J. B.↗

Icy Satellites of Saturn: Impact Cratering and Age Determination

Saturn is the first giant planet to be visited by an orbiting spacecraft that can transmit large amounts of data to Earth. Crater counts on satellites from Phoebe inward to the regular satellites and ring moons are providing unprecedented insights into the origin and time histories of the impacting populations. Many Voyager-era scientists concluded that the satellites had been struck by at least two populations of impactors. In this view, the Population I impactors, which were generally judged to be comets orbiting the Sun, formed most of the larger and older craters, while Population II impactors, interpreted as Saturn-orbiting ejecta from impacts on satellites, produced most of the smaller and younger craters. Voyager data also implied that all of the ring moons, and probably some of the midsized classical moons, had been catastrophically disrupted and reaccreted since they formed. We examine models of the primary impactor populations in the Saturn system. At the present time, ecliptic comets, which likely originate in the Kuiper belt/scattered disk, are predicted to dominate impacts on the regular satellites and ring moons, but the models require extrapolations in size (from the observed Kuiper belt objects to the much smaller bodies that produce the craters) or in distance (from the known active Jupiter family comets to 9.5 AU). Phoebe, Iapetus, and perhaps even moons closer to Saturn have been struck by irregular satellites as well. We describe the Nice model, which provides a plausible mechanism by which the entire Solar System might have experienced an era of heavy bombardment long after the planets formed. We then discuss the three cratering chronologies, including one based upon the Nice model, that have been used to infer surface ages from crater densities on the saturnian satellites. After reviewing scaling relations between the properties of impactors and the craters they produce, we provide model estimates of the present-day rate at which comets impact, and catastrophically disrupt, the saturnian moons. Finally, we present crater counts on the satellites from two different groups. Many of the heavily cratered terrains appear to be nearly saturated, so it is difficult to infer the provenance of the impactors from crater counts alone. More large craters have been found on Iapetus than on any other satellite. Enceladus displays an enormous range of surface ages, ranging from the old mid-latitude plains to the extremely young South Polar Terrain. Cassini images provide some evidence for the reality of Population II. Most of the observed craters may have formed in one or more cataclysms, but more work is needed to determine the roles of heliocentric and planetocentric bodies in creating the craters.

Dones, L.↗

Determining the slag fraction, water/binder ratio and degree of hydration in hardened cement pastes

A method for determining the original mix composition of hardened slag-blended cement-based materials based on analysis of backscattered electron images combined with loss on ignition measurements is presented. The method does not require comparison to reference standards or prior knowledge of the composition of the binders used. Therefore, it is well-suited for application to real structures. The method is also able to calculate the degrees of reaction of slag and cement. Results obtained from an experimental study involving sixty samples with a wide range of water/binder (w/b) ratios (0.30 to 0.50), slag/binder ratios (0 to 0.6) and curing ages (3 days to 1 year) show that the method is very promising. The mean absolute errors for the estimated slag, water and cement contents (kg/m{sup 3}), w/b and s/b ratios were 9.1%, 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.7% and 8.7%, respectively. 91% of the estimated w/b ratios were within 0.036 of the actual values. -- Highlights: •A new method for estimating w/b ratio and slag content in cement pastes is proposed. •The method is also able to calculate the degrees of reaction of slag and cement. •Reference standards or prior knowledge of the binder composition are not required. •The method was tested on samples with varying w/b ratios and slag content.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DISCOVERY OF A ∼250 K BROWN DWARF AT 2 pc FROM THE SUN

Through a previous analysis of multi-epoch astrometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), I identified WISE J085510.83–071442.5 as a new high proper motion object. By combining astrometry from WISE and the Spitzer Space Telescope, I have measured a proper motion of 8.1 ± 0.1'' yr{sup –1} and a parallax of 0.454 ± 0.045'' (2.20{sub −0.20}{sup +0.24} pc) for WISE J085510.83–071442.5, giving it the third highest proper motion and the fourth largest parallax of any known star or brown dwarf. It is also the coldest known brown dwarf based on its absolute magnitude at 4.5 μm and its color in [3.6]-[4.5]. By comparing M {sub 4.5} with the values predicted by theoretical evolutionary models, I estimate an effective temperature of 225-260 K and a mass of 3-10 M {sub Jup} for the age range of 1-10 Gyr that encompasses most nearby stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A prescription for the asteroseismic surface correction

In asteroseismology, the surface effect refers to a disparity between the observed and the modelled frequencies in stars with solar-like oscillations. It originates from improper modelling of the surface layers. Correcting the surface effect usually requires using functions with free parameters, which are conventionally fitted to the observed frequencies. On the basis that the correction should vary smoothly across the H–R diagram, we parameterize it as a simple function of surface gravity, effective temperature, and metallicity. We determine this function by fitting a wide range of stars. The absolute amount of the surface correction decreases with luminosity, but the ratio between it and νmax increases, suggesting the surface effect is more important for red giants than dwarfs. Applying the prescription can eliminate unrealistic surface correction, which improves parameter estimations with stellar modelling. Using two open clusters, we found a reduction of scatter in the model-derived ages for each star in the same cluster. As an important application, we provide a new revision for the Δν scaling relation that, for the first time, accounts for the surface correction. The values of the correction factor, f Δν , are up to 2 percent smaller than those determined without the surface effect considered, suggesting decreases of up to 4 percent in radii and up to 8 percent in masses when using the asteroseismic scaling relations. This revision brings the asteroseismic properties into an agreement with those determined from eclipsing binaries. The new correction factor and the stellar models with the corrected frequencies are available at https://www.github.com/parallelpro/surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dose Coefficient Calculation for Use in Dosimetry Assessment of a Fission-Based Weapon

In the event of a fission-based weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation, dose coefficients can be harnessed to provide dose assessments for defense, emergency preparedness, and consequence management, as well as to prospectively inform the assessment of radiation biomarkers and development of medical prophylaxis countermeasures for defense and homeland security stakeholders and decision-makers. Although dose coefficients have previously been calculated for this group, they would apply specifically to the studied population, the 1945 Japanese cohort, after which their anthropomorphic computational phantoms were modeled. For this reason, applications to other populations may be limited, and instead, an assessment of a more standardized population is desired. We employed a series of computational human phantoms representing international reference individuals: UF/NCI voxel phantom series containing newborn, 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 35-year-old males and females. Irradiation of the phantoms was simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code to determine organ dose coefficients under four idealized irradiation geometries at three distances from the detonation hypocenter at Hiroshima and Nagasaki using DS02 free-in-air prompt neutron and photon fluence spectra. Through these simulations, age-specific dose coefficients were determined for individual organs. Various articulated PIMAL stylized phantoms were simulated as well to estimate the effect of body posture on dose coefficients and determine the effect of posture on dosimetric estimation and reconstruction. Results additionally demonstrate that 137 Cs and the Watt fission spectra are not ideal general surrogate sources for fission weapons, which may be considered for experimental testing of medical countermeasures. Supplementary data provided tabulates the compilation of organ dose-rate coefficients in this study.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Preliminary Thermal Modeling of HI-STORM 100 Storage Modules at Diablo Canyon Power Plant ISFSI

Thermal analysis is being undertaken at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in support of inspections of selected storage modules at various locations around the United States, as part of the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Fuel Cycle Research and Development. This report documents pre-inspection predictions of temperatures for two modules at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant ISFSI identified as candidates for inspection. These are HI-STORM 100 modules of a site-specific design for storing PWR 17x17 fuel in MPC-32 canisters. The temperature predictions reported in this document were obtained with detailed COBRA-SFS models of these storage systems, with the following boundary conditions and assumptions. • storage module overpack configuration based on FSAR documentation of HI-STORM100S-218, Version B; due to unavailability of site-specific design data for Diablo Canyon ISFSI modules • Individual assembly and total decay heat loadings for each canister, based on at-loading values provided by PG&E, “aged” to time of inspection using ORIGEN modeling - Special Note: there is an inherent conservatism of unquantified magnitude – informally estimated as up to approximately 20% -- in the utility-supplied values for at-loading assembly decay heat values • Axial decay heat distributions based on a bounding generic profile for PWR fuel. • Axial location of beginning of fuel assumed same as WE 17x17 OFA fuel, due to unavailability of specific data for WE17x17 STD and WE 17x17 Vantage 5 fuel designs • Ambient conditions of still air at 50°F (10°C) assumed for base-case evaluations - Wind conditions at the Diablo Canyon site are unquantified, due to unavailability of site meteorological data - additional still-air evaluations performed at 70°F (21°C), 60°F (16°C), and 40°F (4°C), to cover a range of possible conditions at the time of the inspection. (Calculations were also performed at 80°F (27°C), for comparison with design basis assumptions.) All calculations are for steady-state conditions, on the assumption that the surfaces of the module that are accessible for temperature measurements during the inspection will tend to follow ambient temperature changes relatively closely. Comparisons to the results of the inspections, and post-inspection evaluations of temperature measurements obtained in the specific modules, will be documented in a separate follow-on report, to be issued in a timely manner after the inspection has been performed.

Site Inspection↗

Compression Stress-Relaxation and Oxygen Consumption Behavior of 9975 Shipping Package O-rings

The 9975 shipping package is used within the DOE complex for shipping special nuclear materials. The shipping packages are currently approved for up to 20 years storage in K-Area Complex (KAC) and work continues to provide technical basis to extend that period. Several techniques have been used at Savannah River National Laboratory to monitor the aging performance of Viton ® GLT or GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings. These experiments all involve accelerated aging of the O-ring samples at elevated temperatures. This report describes efforts to extend the service life estimate of GLT and GLT-S O-rings used in the 9975 shipping package.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

IN-SYNC. IV. The young stellar population in the Orion A molecular cloud

We present the results of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey APOGEE INfrared Spectroscopy of Young Nebulous Clusters program (IN-SYNC) survey of the Orion A molecular cloud. This survey obtained high-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of about 2700 young pre-main-sequence stars on a ∼6{sup ∘} field of view. We have measured accurate stellar parameters (T{sub eff}, logg, vsini) and extinctions and placed the sources in the Hertzsprung–Russel diagram (HRD). We have also extracted radial velocities for the kinematic characterization of the population. We compare our measurements with literature results to assess the performance and accuracy of the survey. Source extinction shows evidence for dust grains that are larger than those in the diffuse interstellar medium: we estimate an average R{sub V} = 5.5 in the region. Importantly, we find a clear correlation between HRD inferred ages and spectroscopic surface-gravity-inferred ages and between extinction and disk presence; this strongly suggests a real spread of ages larger than a few Myr. Focusing on the young population around NGC 1980/ι Ori, which has previously been suggested to be a separate, foreground, older cluster, we confirm its older (∼5 Myr) age and low A{sub V}, but considering that its radial velocity distribution is indistinguishable from Orion A’s population, we suggest that NGC 1980 is part of Orion A’s star formation activity. Based on their stellar parameters and kinematic properties, we identify 383 new candidate members of Orion A, most of which are diskless sources in areas of the region poorly studied by previous works.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ENABLING STAR FORMATION VIA SPONTANEOUS MOLECULAR DIPOLE ORIENTATION IN ICY SOLIDS

It is shown here how new experimental data, for the electrical properties of solid CO, can be used to fill important gaps in our understanding of the evolution of prestellar cores. Dust grains with a mantle of CO lead to a reduction in the degree of ionization in these cores by a factor of between 5 and 6. The lifetimes for expulsion of magnetic fields from cores, a process generally necessary for gravitational collapse, are reduced from current estimates of several megayears, by a similar factor. This removes a major inconsistency, since lifetimes now tally with typical ages of prestellar cores of a few hundred thousand to 10{sup 6} yr, derived from observations. With the reduced timescales, cores also escape disruption by Galactic supernova remnants. Our results provide a natural mechanism for the generation of so-called magnetically supercritical cores, in which the magnetic field alone cannot prevent gravitational collapse. In addition, we find a minimum value for the density of prestellar cores of ≥(1.1 ± 0.1) × 10{sup 4} H{sub 2} cm{sup −3}, in agreement with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Brain stem auditory evoked responses in human infants and adults

Brain stem evoked potentials were recorded by conventional scalp electrodes in infants (3 weeks to 3 years of age) and adults. The latency of one of the major response components (wave V) is shown to be a function both of click intensity and the age of the subject; this latency at a given signal strength shortens postnatally to reach the adult value (about 6 msec) by 12 to 18 months of age. The demonstrated reliability and limited variability of these brain stem electrophysiological responses provide the basis for an optimistic estimate of their usefulness as an objective method for assessing hearing in infants and adults.

Hecox, K.↗

Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗