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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Leveraging generative artificial intelligence to bridge domain gaps in wind turbine research

A central challenge in wind turbine health monitoring is the scarcity of real-world data due to limited instrumentation, leading researchers to rely on simulation models that often suffer from reduced fidelity. However, even within simulation environments, discrepancies arise because of modeling assumptions, and configuration fidelities, creating domain gaps that limit the transferability of learned representations. Here, to investigate domain translation under controlled conditions, this project explores the use of generative artificial intelligence, specifically cycle-consistent generative adversarial networks (CGANs), to bridge the gap between OpenFAST simulation models representing 1.5 MW and 5 MW wind turbines. A physics-informed CGAN architecture is introduced, where a simplified turbine tower dynamics model is incorporated into the training loss to ensure physically consistent outputs. Quantitative results showed moderate to high agreement in frequency-domain features. Incorporating the physics-informed loss function improved the R 2 values by 30%, reduced the RMSE from 1.39 to 1.1 m/s 2 , and reduced training time by 82%. Furthermore, under increased turbulence intensity (IEC Category A), the RMSE remained stable at approximately 1.1 m/s 2 . While the present study is entirely simulation-based, it establishes a pipeline for evaluating physics-informed generative domain translation, which may serve as a foundation for future simulation-to-reality validation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

ERA5-Land Data for LASSO-CACTI Overview Paper

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) generated a soil reanalysis dataset for the land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), referred to as ERA5-Land. This is a model-generated dataset, with the original version available for the period 1950 to present. The version archived in this DOE ARM product is a subset of the data is for the period of the CACTI field campaign plus several preceding months, specifically from August 1, 2018 through March 22, 2019 with hourly intervals. The ARM copy is also a sub-region of the original global product; the ARM copy is for -60 to -5 °N by -105 to -30 °W. Only variables necessary to drive the WRF-Hydro model are included, which are the 2-m temperature and specific humidity, 10-m wind components, surface pressure, rain rate, and downward surface short and longwave radiation. These data have been obtained from the Copernicus Data Store.

10m wind u-component↗

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Estimating Bat Fatality at a Texas Wind Energy Facility: Implications Transcending the United States-Mexico Border

Wind energy development causes bat fatalities. Despite emphasis on understanding and reducing these impacts, few data are available for the southwest region of the United States and northern Mexico. We monitored bat fatalities for a full year (March 2017–March 2018) at a wind energy facility in south Texas near the United States–Mexico border. We established search plots of 100-m radius at eight randomly selected turbines (of 255) and searched the roads and pads at an additional 92 turbines. We conducted weekly searches from spring through fall and bimonthly during winter. We used GenEst (Generalized Mortality Estimator) to estimate bat fatalities corrected for searcher efficiency, carcass removal, and density-weighted proportion of area searched. We found 205 bats during standardized searches, the majority of which were Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis, 76%). The corrected fatality estimates were 16 bats/megawatt/year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12 – 30 bats/megawatt/year) across all species. Species composition at our site is similar to that of northern Mexico, an area of expanding wind energy development with no published studies.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Sap Velocity Data for Urban Trees in Chicago, Illinois (2024-2025)

This dataset contains uncorrected sap velocity measurements using the heat ratio method (HRM) collected using ICT International SFM1x sensors at five urban sites in Chicago, Illinois, as part of the DOE CROCUS project. The data includes continuous monitoring of sap velocity from various tree species, including Maples (Acer spp.): Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum), Silver Maple (Acer saccharinum), and Red Maple (Acer rubrum); Oaks (Quercus spp.): Swamp White Oak (Quercus bicolor); American Elm (Ulmus americana); Honey Locust (Gleditsia triacanthos); Cottonwood (Populus deltoides); and Tree of Heaven (Ailanthus altissima) across Chicago State University (CSU), Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU), Northwestern University (NU), University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), and West Woodlawn "Blacks in Green" (BIG). These include both street trees and those in urban park locations. Measurements were collected at 15-20 minute intervals, depending on the sensor, and transmitted via Long Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) protocols. The wireless data was collected by Sage Network (https://sagecontinuum.org/) nodes. The dataset includes sensor ID, Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates, tree species (common and scientific names), tree identification number, diameter at breast height (DBH in cm), uncorrected sap velocity measurements (cm/hr) from both inner and outer probes, and Sage Node identifiers so the data can be mapped to related variables such as air quality and wind speed that were collected on the Sage nodes. All timestamps are in local Chicago time (CDT/CST). Quality control flags are provided using a 3-bit binary system indicating physical range violations (< -10 or > 60 cm/hr), step spikes (absolute difference > 36 cm/hr), and stuck sensor conditions (> 10 consecutive identical values). These are raw data, not corrected for wood anatomy or species-specific characteristics. Data is provided in comma separated (CSV) format. This dataset is part of a larger collection of CROCUS environmental monitoring data, including linked datasets from Air Quality Transmitter (AQT) sensors, Weather Transmitter (WXT) sensors, and Multi-Function Research LoRaWAN (MFR) Nodes. DOIs for the supporting data are provided as part of this data package.

Chicago↗

Highlighting the Impact of Yaw Control by Parsing Atmospheric Conditions Based on Total Variation: Preprint

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariate atmospheric dataset is a necessary step in the validation of wind plant control strategies. Most often, operating conditions are characterized in terms of aggregated observations and assume that the atmosphere is 'quasi-steady'. Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of wind plant operating conditions. Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation sets the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operation strategies. Controlling observational data for statistical stationarity highlights significant enhancements to the power production of waked turbines under wake steering wind plant control. Considering the combined energy ratio of the turbine to which yaw offsets are prescribed as well as the waked turbine show only moderate improvements when filtering for total validation. The same quality control that highlights wake steering also serves to underpin the off-nominal operation of the controlled turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accomplishments and Mid-Year Performance Report: Wind Energy Program Fiscal Year 2020

Through transformative science and innovation, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Flatirons Campus helps lead the way to a sustainable energy future that powers America with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, and accessible wind energy. Since 1976, NREL has provided an ideal environment for the research and development (R&D) of advanced energy technologies through: Wind energy resource assessments, World-class research facilities, High-performance computing and modeling, Data and technology analysis, Manufacturing breakthroughs, Environmental analysis and wildlife conservation efforts, Education and training programs for a future workforce. These activities enable the innovations needed to advance U.S. wind systems, address market and deployment barriers, and drive down the cost of wind energy with more efficient, more reliable, and more predictable wind energy systems. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL delivered on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during the first and second quarters of Fiscal Year (FY) 2020.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Meso- to microscale modeling of atmospheric stability effects on wind turbine wake behavior in complex terrain

Abstract. Terrain-induced flow phenomena modulate wind turbine performance and wake behavior in ways that are not adequately accounted for in typical wind turbine wake and wind plant design models. In this work, we simulate flow over two parallel ridges with a wind turbine on one of the ridges, focusing on conditions observed during the Perdigão field campaign in 2017. Two case studies are selected to be representative of typical flow conditions at the site, including the effects of atmospheric stability: a stable case where a mountain wave occurs (as in ∼ 50 % of the nights observed) and a convective case where a recirculation zone forms in the lee of the ridge with the turbine (as occurred over 50 % of the time with upstream winds normal to the ridgeline). We use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), dynamically downscaled from the mesoscale (6.75 km resolution) to microscale large-eddy simulation (LES) at 10 m resolution, where a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine parameterization is used to simulate turbine wakes. We compare the WRF–LES–GAD model results to data from meteorological towers, lidars, and a tethered lifting system, showing good qualitative and quantitative agreement for both case studies. Significantly, the wind turbine wake shows different amounts of vertical deflection from the terrain and persistence downstream in the two stability regimes. In the stable case, the wake follows the terrain along with the mountain wave and deflects downwards by nearly 100 m below hub height at four rotor diameters downstream. In the convective case, the wake deflects above the recirculation zone over 40 m above hub height at the same downstream distance. Overall, the WRF–LES–GAD model is able to capture the observed behavior of the wind turbine wakes, demonstrating the model's ability to represent wakes over complex terrain for two distinct and representative atmospheric stability classes, and, potentially, to improve wind turbine siting and operation in hilly landscapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

Wind Turbine Sound Setbacks and Supply Curves: Ordinances and Extrapolated Trends, 110 Hub Height, 130 Rotor Diameter

This dataset provides a comprehensive set of wind turbine sound setbacks from every residential structure in the contiguous United States (CONUS). A sound setback is defined as the minimum required distance between a residential structure and a hypothetical turbine installation site to ensure that modeled sound levels received at the residence do not exceed local sound ordinances, which are commonly expressed in A-weighted decibels (dBA). Therefore, sound setbacks are a local spatial assessment combining multiple factors, including the sound pressure curve as a function of the observer location (distance and direction) relative to the turbine, local sound regulations, and the geographical distribution of residential structures. The dataset is organized into multiple scenario-based products, detailed as follows: 1. Existing and extrapolated sound setbacks. An existing scenario characterizes sound setbacks only in states or counties that have implemented sound regulations as of 2022. The extrapolated scenarios extend a constant sound threshold to counties that lack explicit sound regulations, with thresholds ranging from 35 to 60 dBA, in 5-dBA increments reflecting the variation observed in current sound ordinances. 2. Sound setbacks in directional and worst scenarios. The directional scenario accounts for the distance and orientation of residential structures relative to a hypothetical turbine location, utilizing the turbine's sound emissions in that specific direction. In contrast, the worst scenario takes loudest sound level at each distance step from the turbine, irrespective of directional considerations, which aligns with current industry practice. 3. Supply curves for Open and Reference Access scenarios. This dataset includes supply curves generated by the reV model, which integrates each of the above sound setbacks into both Open and Reference siting scenarios. In addition, two Open and Reference baselines scenarios were included which do not consider sound setbacks for comparative analysis. All sound setback data are stored in TIF files, with partial maps of the data provided in PNG format. The values in the sound setback raster range from 0 to 1, representing the fraction of developable land within a 90 meter by 90 meter pixel due to sound ordinances. A value of 0 indicates areas where wind energy development is prohibited, while a value of 1 signifies areas fully permissible. The wind turbine parameters used in the sound modeling are based on the land-based turbine from International Energy Agency (IEA), featuring a rated electrical power of 3.4 MW, a rotor diameter of 130 meters, and a hub height of 110 meters. The atmospheric conditions, including wind speed/direction, turbulence, air temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure, that drive the sound generation are obtained from the WIND Toolkit dataset.

Array↗

Determining Spatial Scales of Soil Moisture—Cloud Coupling Pathways Using Semi-Idealized Simulations

The spatial scales of land-atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous, realistic soil moisture patterns are critical to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, these scales are poorly quantified. We use high-resolution numerical experiments to quantify the spatial scales for a selected day during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign in Oklahoma. A semi-idealized approach (removing background winds and surface topography while retaining the real-world data for other boundary conditions) enables examination of the local influence from the surface. Simulations that apply uniform surface, variable land cover with uniform soil moisture, and variable land cover with variable soil moisture are then compared. Land cover variations, especially water and urban surfaces, create two variance peaks in the surface sensible heat flux in the scales >10 km (meso-β) and <6 km (meso-γ). Both peaks are enhanced by the observation-based soil moisture distribution that has most of its variance in the meso-β scale. Atmospheric response in the meso-β scale is hydrostatic with weak vertical motion. The land cover variations induce secondary circulations in the scales of 2.5–6 km. The additional soil moisture variability intensifies extreme circulations over dry soil patches and sharp sensible heat flux gradients, slightly extending the characteristic scales to 2.5–9 km. While their areal coverage is small, soil moisture variations on such “hotspots” lead to substantially larger convective cloud structure and domain-mean rainfall, calling for a consideration of their non-linear effect in large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗