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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

CEFR simulation using diffusion code system RAST-F

In this study, the RAST-F code system, which is based on the two-step approach that couples a multi-group cross-section generation Monte-Carlo (MC) code and a multi-group nodal diffusion solver, was used for the neutronic simulation of the CEFR start-up experiments. The numerical solution of the RAST-F system was verified against the full core MC solution MCS at all control rods fully inserted and withdrawn states. The RAST-F solution of the selected experimental simulations was compared against the measurement data. A good agreement between RAST-F and MCS solutions was observed with less than 120 pcm discrepancies and 1.2% root-mean-square error in terms of k{sub eff} and power distribution, respectively. Meanwhile, the RAST-F result agreed well with the experimental data within two-sigma of experimental uncertainty. The good agreement of these results indicates that RAST-F can be used to neutronic steady-state simulations for small core-size SFR, which was challenged to deterministic code systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio metadynamics calculations reveal complex interfacial effects in acetic acid deprotonation dynamics

Acid-base reactions play a central role in solution chemistry, with carboxylic acids being particularly important in atmospheric chemical processes. In this work, we harness metadynamics calculations with Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations to understand deprotonation dynamics of acetic acid (CH 3 COOH) in both bulk and air-water interfacial environments. Collective variables are carefully chosen in our well-tempered metadynamics simulations to capture the deprotonation process in various aqueous configurations. Herein, our findings show that the free energy barrier for deprotonation of acetic acid at the air-water interface is lower than in the bulk, in accordance with the available experimental data. Furthermore, our well-tempered metadynamics calculations suggest that the variations in free energy are primarily due to intricate solvation shell effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of theory and experiment in the modelling of heterogeneous electrocatalysis.

Theoretical modelling is essential to deepen our understanding of heterogeneous electrocatalytic energy conversion processes, such as water splitting. Here, Sharon Hammes-Schiffer and Giulia Galli offer their perspectives on the best strategies for successfully studying such systems. Heterogeneous electrocatalysis is critical to many energy conversion processes. Theoretical and computational approaches are essential to interpret experimental data and provide the mechanistic understanding necessary to design more effective catalysts. However, automated general procedures to build predictive theoretical and computational frameworks are not readily available; specific choices must be made in terms of the atomistic structural model and the level of theory, as well as the experimental data used to inform and validate these choices. Here we outline some best practices for modelling heterogeneous systems and present examples in the context of catalysis at metal electrodes and oxides. The level of theory should be chosen for the specific system and properties of interest, and experimental validation is essential from the beginning to the end of the study. Continuous feedback and ultimate integration between experiment and theory enhances the power of calculations to elucidate mechanisms, identify effective descriptors and clarify design principles.

Hammes-Schiffer, Sharon↗
DOE OSTI2023

ASME Code Qualification Plan for LPBF 316 SS

This report describes a plan to qualify laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316 stainless steel for use with the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules for metallic components in high temperature nuclear reactors. Accomplishing this goal would make the material and manufacturing process available to vendors for inclusion in the next generation of advanced, high temperature reactors. The general approach adopted here is to treat LPBF 316 as if it was a completely new material and to develop a plan to qualify the material according to the current ASME practices. One key goal of this work is to explore and develop accelerated qualification approaches that might reduce the time required to qualify new materials by reducing the need for long term testing. However, the qualification plan here does not employ any accelerated qualification approaches to provide a limiting, bounding description of the number, duration, and types of testing required to qualify LPBF 316 without such techniques and to describe a comprehensive dataset that could be used to explore and validate accelerated qualification approaches in the future. The report addresses the fundamental challenges to qualifying Advanced Manufacturing (AM) materials for high temperature applications and summarizes the ASME Section III qualification process as well as current efforts to qualify LBPF and DED 316 for low temperature applications. The report then discusses specific issues, both material and logistical, related to qualifying PBF 316 steel. The final chapters of the report describe a complete test plan designed to generate sufficient data to qualify the material as well as a data management plan for how to store and manage the data to eventually provide the test data packaged needed to qualify the material with ASME.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing Upscaling Approach for Swarming Hydraulic Fractures Observed at Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site through Multiscale Simulations

We show that this work aims to address a challenge posed by recent observations of tightly spaced hydraulic fractures in core samples from the hydraulic fracturing test site (HFTS) in the Middle Wolfcamp Formation. Many fractures in retrieved cores have subfoot spacing, which is at odds with conventional models in which usually one hydraulic fracture is initiated per cluster. Models assuming a single fracture at each cluster, although a common practice, often predict excessive fracture propagation that is inconsistent with microseismic observation. Here, we aim to develop a numerical approach to effectively account for densely spaced hydraulic fractures in field-scale simulations. Because it is impractical to explicitly model all aforementioned fractures, we develop a new upscaling law that enables existing simulation tools to predict reservoir response to fracture swarms. The upscaling law is derived based on an energy equivalence argument and validated through multiscale simulations using a high-fidelity code, GEOS. The swarming fractures are first modeled with a spacing that is much smaller than the cluster spacing; these fractures are then approximated by an upscaled, single fracture based on the proposed upscaling law. The upscaled fracture is shown to successfully match the energy input rate and produce the total fracture aperture and average propagation length of the explicitly simulated swarm. Afterward, the upscaling approach is further implemented in 3D field-scale simulations and validated against the HFTS microseismic data of a horizontal well. Our results show that hydraulic fracture swarming can significantly affect fracture propagation behaviors compared with the propagation of single fractures as assumed by conventional modeling approaches. Under the considered situations, the conventional treatment yields fast propagation speed that far exceeds that indicated by the microseismic data. We also illustrate that this discrepancy can be reduced readily through the implementation of the upscaling law. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for the fracture swarming effect in field-scale simulations and the efficacy of this approach to enable realistic predictions of reservoir responses to fracture swarms, without the need to model tightly spaced fractures individually.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Lagrangian perspective on tropical anvil cloud lifecycle in present and future climate

The evolution of tropical anvil clouds from their origin in deep convective cores to their slow decay determines the climatic effects of clouds in tropical convective regions. Despite the relevance of anvil clouds for climate and responses of clouds to global warming, processes dominating their evolution are not well understood. Currently available observational data reveal instantaneous snapshots of anvil cloud properties, but cannot provide a process-based perspective on anvil evolution. We therefore conduct simulations with the high resolution version of the Exascale Earth System Model in which we track mesoscale convective systems over the Tropical Western Pacific and compute trajectories that follow air parcels detrained from peaks of convective activity. With this approach we gain new insight into the anvil cloud evolution both in present day and future climate. Comparison with geostationary satellite data shows that the model is able to simulate maritime mesoscale convective systems reasonably well. Trajectory results indicate that anvil cloud lifetime is about 15 hours with no significant change in a warmer climate. The anvil ice mixing ratio is larger in a warmer climate due to a larger source of ice by detrainment and larger depositional growth leading to a more negative net cloud radiative effect along detrained trajectories. However, the increases in sources are counteracted by increases in sinks of ice, particularly snow formation and sedimentation. Furthermore, we find that the mean anvil cloud feedback along trajectories is positive and consistent with results from more traditional cloud feedback calculation methods.

climate, weather, mesocale cellular convection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calendar Year 2023 Underground Test Area Annual Sampling Letter Report Nevada National Security Site

The calendar year 2023 annual sampling letter report presents Plan implementation and a summary of field activities, sampling methods, well completion diagrams, and analytical laboratory results from sampling of wells associated with the Pahute Mesa CAUs. The CY 2023 letter report also presents data from samples collected from Well ER-EC-11_p3 as part of a sampling investigation. This well was resampled because of anomalously low standard tritium (3H) results from bailer sampling that occurred in July 2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Missing data in multi-omics integration: Recent advances through artificial intelligence

Biological systems function through complex interactions between various ‘omics (biomolecules), and a more complete understanding of these systems is only possible through an integrated, multi-omic perspective. This has presented the need for the development of integration approaches that are able to capture the complex, often non-linear, interactions that define these biological systems and are adapted to the challenges of combining the heterogenous data across ‘omic views. A principal challenge to multi-omic integration is missing data because all biomolecules are not measured in all samples. Due to either cost, instrument sensitivity, or other experimental factors, data for a biological sample may be missing for one or more ‘omic techologies. Recent methodological developments in artificial intelligence and statistical learning have greatly facilitated the analyses of multi-omics data, however many of these techniques assume access to completely observed data. A subset of these methods incorporate mechanisms for handling partially observed samples, and these methods are the focus of this review. We describe recently developed approaches, noting their primary use cases and highlighting each method's approach to handling missing data. We additionally provide an overview of the more traditional missing data workflows and their limitations; and we discuss potential avenues for further developments as well as how the missing data issue and its current solutions may generalize beyond the multi-omics context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mass measurements of neutron-rich indium isotopes for r -process studies

A new series of neutron-rich indium mass measurements is reported from the TITAN multiple-reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer (MR-TOF-MS). These mass measurements cover 125-134 In (N = 76–85) and include ground states as well as isomeric states. The masses of nuclei in this region are known to be of great importance for accurately modeling r-process nucleosynthesis, and the significance of the reported neutron-rich indium masses is discussed in this context. Results are compared with earlier experimental data where available as well as theoretical mass models. The measurements reported here include the first mass measurements of 133,134 In, as well as the first direct mass measurement of 132 In. The masses of 125-131 In ground states and several isomers were previously measured to higher precision by Penning trap mass spectrometry, which also resolved some low-lying isomers that could not be resolved in this work. The earlier Penning trap measurements serve as excellent cross-checks for the MR-TOF-MS measurements, and in some cases the MR-TOF-MS measurements improve the literature uncertainties of higher-lying isomer masses and excitation energies. Finally, a new isomeric state for 128 In, recently reported for the first time by the JYFLTRAP group, is also confirmed by the TITAN MR-TOF-MS, with a measured excitation energy of 1813(17) keV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of distributed process-based hydrologic model performance using only a priori information to define model inputs

Fully distributed, integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have seen renewed interest due to availability of better software, high performance computing facilities, and high-resolution, spatially extensive data products. ISSHMs are valuable as tools for advancing system understanding as they can resolve multiple processes defined on the plot scale including three-dimensional interaction of surface water and groundwater. Here, we evaluated the performance of an ISSHM, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), on seven diverse catchments across the continental US using widely available data products to define model inputs without calibration. We compare the ATS-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with gauge observations and MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, respectively. Using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) as metric, ATS with default data products performed reasonably well at 6 of 7 catchments for streamflow. However, in one of those 6 catchments ATS had poor performance on baseflow and ATS’s overall performance was thus judged to be inadequate despite the acceptable KGE. ATS performance for evapotranspiration was good in all 7 catchments using default data products. In the two catchments where ATS streamflow performance using default data products was not acceptable, the performance was significantly improved by using local information on subsurface properties below the soil. We also compare the model-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with the Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model, a semi-distributed model that was calibrated on a catchment-by-catchment basis. Uncalibrated ATS performance is comparable to the calibrated SAC-SMA model in terms of streamflow while ATS performance is similar to or better (much better in certain catchments) in reproducing MODIS-derived evapotranspiration. Reasonably good performance of ATS without catchment-specific calibration provides new confidence in the ISSHM class of models and community data products as tools for advancing understanding of watershed function in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Shallow Strain Tensor Type-Curve Analysis to Characterizing Reservoir Boundaries

Pressure data measured in monitoring wells during well tests are typically used to estimate subsurface boundaries, but the resolution of this technique is often limited. We have shown that the strain tensor at shallow depth can be measured with optical strainmeters, and this signal responds to pressure changes in an underlying aquifer or reservoir. Moreover, these data can be inverted to estimate reservoir properties using analyses similar to classical type-curve analyses. The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the feasibility of extending the type-curve analysis of strain tensor data to include the characterization of aquifer boundaries.

Roudini, Soheil↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and modeling studies of PR and ND oxalate solubility to high ionic strengths: Insight into actinide(III) oxalates

Actinide oxalates are chemical compounds important to nuclear industry, ranging from actinide separation in waste reprocessing, to production of specialty actinides, and to disposal of high level nuclear waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF). In this study, the solubility constants for Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O by performing solubility experiments in HNO 3 and mixtures of HNO 3 and H 2 C 2 O 4 at 23.0 ± 0.2 °C have been determined. The targeted starting materials, Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O, were successfully synthesized at room temperature using PrCl 3 , NdCl 3 and oxalic acid as the source metrials. Then, we utilized the targeted solubility-controlling phases to conduct solubility measurements. There was no phase change over the entire periods of experiments, demonstrating that Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O were the solubility-controlling phases in our respective experiments. Based on our experimental data, we have developed a thermodynamic model for Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O in the mixtures of HNO 3 and H 2 C 2 O 4 to high ionic strengths. The model for Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O reproduces well the reported experimental data for Pu 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O, which are not utilized for the model development, demonstrating that Pr(III) is an excellent analog for Pu(III). Similarly, the model for Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O reproduces the solubility of Am 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Cm 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O. The Pitzer model was used for the calculation of activity coefficients. Based on the published, well established model for dissociation constants for oxalic acid and stability constants for actinide-oxalate complexes [i.e., AmC 2 O 4 + , and Am(C 2 O 4 ) 2 - ] to high ionic strengths, we have obtained the solubility constants (log 10 K 0 ) for the following reactions at 25 °C, Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O ⇌ 2Pr 3+ + 3C 2 O 4 2- + 10H 2 O(l). Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O ⇌ 2Nd 3+ + 3C 2 O 4 2- + 10H 2 O(l). to be -30.82 ± 0.30 (2σ), and - 31.14 ± 0.35 (2σ), respectively. These values for can be directly applied to Pu 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O, Am 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Cm 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O. The model established for actinide oxalates by this study provides the needed knowledge with regard to solubilities of actinide/REE oxalates at various ionic strengths, and is expected to find applications in many fields, including the geological disposal of nuclear waste and the mobility of REE under the surface conditions, as Pr 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O and Nd 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O can be regarded as the pure Pr and Nd end-members of deveroite, a recently discovered natural REE oxalate with the following stoichiometry, (Ce 1.01 Nd 0.33 La 0.32 Pr 0.11 Y 0.11 Sm 0.01 Pb 0.04 U 0.03 Th 0.01 Ca 0.04 ) 2.01 (C 2 O 4 ) 2.99 •9.99H 2 O. Regarding its importance in the geological disposal of nuclear waste, Am 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O/Pu 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O/Cm 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O can be the source-term phase for actinides, as demonstrated by the instance in the disposal in clay/shale formations. This is exemplified by the stability of Am 2 (C 2 O 4 ) 3 •10H 2 O in comparison with Am(OH) 3 (am), Am(OH) 3 (s) and AmCO 3 (OH)(s) under the relevant geological repository conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Material Strength Variabilities and Uncertainties for Component Qualification (2020 LDRD Final Report)

At its core, material specification and materials qualification require an understanding of the uncertainties in relation to a given performance metric. When simulations are used to inform the design and evaluation of these metrics, it is essential to understand the uncertainties in the underlying models and parameters that feed into those simulations. In this work, we have created a statistical framework to address uncertainties in the materials strength modeling used in integrated simulations. The framework is based on the Bayesian methodology, which allows for uncertainties to be updated as new data become available. The results of this work show how model parameters and their uncertainties can be updated as new and different types of strength data are added, as well as methods for determining which future experiment has the greatest potential to reduce the uncertainty. The statistical framework developed in this project will be utilized to assess and propagate the uncertainties in the strength models used in the programmatic simulations and to create a way to formally update those uncertainties as new data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting Five Years of CASMI Contests with EPA Identification Tools

Software applications for high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS)-based non-targeted analysis (NTA) continue to enhance chemical identification capabilities. Given the variety of available applications, determining the most fit-for-purpose tools and workflows can be difficult. The Critical Assessment of Small Molecule Identification (CASMI) contests were initiated in 2012 to provide a means to evaluate compound identification tools on a standardized set of blinded tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) data. Five CASMI contests have resulted in recommendations, publications, and invaluable datasets for practitioners of HRMS-based screening studies. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) CompTox Chemicals Dashboard is now recognized as a valuable resource for compound identification in NTA studies. However, this application was too new and immature in functionality to participate in the five previous CASMI contests. In this work, we performed compound identification on all five CASMI contest datasets using Dashboard tools and data in order to critically evaluate Dashboard performance relative to that of other applications. CASMI data was accessed via the CASMI webpage and processed for use in our spectral matching and identification workflow. Relative to applications used by former contest participants, our tools, data, and workflow performed well, placing more challenge compounds in the top five of ranked candidates than did the winners of three contest years and tying in a fourth. In addition, we conducted an in-depth review of the CASMI structure sets and made these reviewed sets available via the Dashboard. Our results suggest that Dashboard data and tools would enhance chemical identification capabilities for practitioners of HRMS-based NTA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Centroidal Voronoi tessellation based methods for optimal rain gauge location prediction

With more satellite and model precipitation data becoming available, new analytical methods are needed that can take advantage of emerging data patterns to make well informed predictions in many hydrological applications. Herein we propose a new strategy where we extract precipitation variability patterns and use correlation map to build the resulting density map that serves as an input to centroidal Voronoi tessellation construction that optimizes placement of precipitation gauges. We provide results of numerical experiments based on the data from the Alto-Adige region in Northern Italy and Oklahoma and compare them against actual gauge locations. This method provides an automated way for choosing new gauge locations and can be generalized to include physical constraints and to tackle other types of resource allocation problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗