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DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flowability of Crumbler Rotary Shear Size-Reduced Granular Biomass: An Experiment-Informed Modeling Study on the Angle of Repose

Biomass has potential as a carbon-neutral alternative to petroleum for chemical and energy products. However, complete replacement of fossil fuel is contingent upon efficient processes to eliminate undesirable characteristics of biomass, e.g., low bulk density, variability, and storage-induced quality problems. Mechanical size reduction via comminution is a processing operation to engineer favorable biomass flowability in handling. Crumbler rotary shear mill has been empirically demonstrated to produce more uniformly shaped particles with higher flowability than hammermilled biomass. This study combines modeling and experimentation to unveil fundamental understandings of the relation between granular particle characteristics and biomass flow behavior, which elucidate underlying mechanisms and guide selection of critical processing parameters. For this purpose, the impact of critical material attributes, including particle size (2–6 mm), particle shape (briquette, chip, clumped-sphere, cube, etc.), and surface roughness, on the angle of repose (AOR) of milled pine chips were investigated using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system is used to produce milled pine particles within the same size range considered in DEM simulations. AOR of different sets of these particles were measured experimentally to benchmark DEM results against experimental data. Specific energy consumption for the comminution of biomass with different particle size and moisture content are measured for technoeconomic analysis. Our results show that the smaller size (2 mm) of pine particle achieves better followability (i.e., smaller AOR) while the energy cost of comminution is significantly higher and bulk density is almost the same as the 6-mm pine particles. For the 2-mm particle size, Crumbles from veneer have better flow properties than Crumbles from chips. Contrarily, no significant difference was observed between the AOR of the two materials for the 6-mm particle size. Furthermore, from DEM simulations, mechanical interlocking between particles was found as a dominant factor in determining AOR of complex-shaped particles such as milled pine, which cannot be accurately captured by using simple particle shapes (e.g., mono-sphere) with a rolling resistance model. Conversely, clumped-sphere model alleviates this limitation without increasing computational cost significantly and can be used for accurate representation of biomass granular particles when simulating free-flow behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Optimal design of microtube recuperators for an indirect supercritical carbon dioxide recompression closed Brayton cycle

This paper presents a baseline design and optimization approach developed in Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) for microtube shell-and-tube exchangers (MSTEs) used for high- and low-temperature recuperation in a 10 MWe indirect supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) recompression closed Brayton cycle (RCBC). The MSTE-type recuperators are designed using one-dimensional models with thermal-hydraulic correlations appropriate for sCO 2 and properties models that capture considerable nonlinear changes in CO 2 properties near the critical and pseudo-critical points. Using the successive quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm in ACM, optimal recuperator designs are obtained for either custom or industry-standard microtubes considering constraints based on current advanced manufacturing techniques. The three decision variables are the number of tubes, tube pitch-to-diameter ratio, and tube diameter. Five different objective functions based on different key design measures are considered: minimization of total heat transfer area, heat exchanger volume, metal weight, thermal residence time, and maximization of compactness. Sensitivities studies indicate the constraint on the maximum number of tubes per shell does affect the number of parallel heat exchanger trains but not the tube selection, total number of tubes, tube length and other key design measures in the final optimal design when considering industry-standard tubes. In this study, the optimally designed high- and low-temperature recuperators have 47,000 3/32 inch tubes and 63,000 1/16 inch tubes, respectively. In addition, sensitivities to the design temperature approach and maximum allowable pressure drop are studied, since these specifications significantly impact the optimal design of the recuperators as well as the thermal efficiency and the economic performance of the entire sCO 2 Brayton cycle.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Finite boundary effects on the spherical Rayleigh–Taylor instability between viscous fluids

For the Rayleigh–Taylor unstable arrangement of a viscous fluid sphere embedded in a finite viscous fluid spherical shell with a rigid boundary and a radially directed acceleration, a dispersion relation is developed from a linear stability analysis using the method of normal modes. [Formula: see text] is the radially directed acceleration at the interface. ρ i denotes the density, μ i is the viscosity, and R i is the radius, where i = 1 is the inner sphere and i = 2 is the outer sphere. The dispersion relation is a function of the following dimensionless variables: viscosity ratio [Formula: see text], density ratio [Formula: see text], spherical harmonic mode n, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and the dimensionless growth rate [Formula: see text], where σ is the exponential growth rate. We show that the boundedness provided by the outer spherical shell has a strong influence on the instability behavior, which is reflected not only in the modulation of the growth rate but also in the selection of the most unstable modes that are physically possible. This outer boundary effect is quantified by the relative magnitude of the radius ratio H. We find that when H is close to unity, lower order harmonics are excluded from becoming the most unstable within a vast region of the parameter space. In other words, the effect of H has precedence over the other controlling parameters d, B, and a wide range of s in establishing what the lowest most unstable mode can be. When H ~ 1, low order harmonics can become the most unstable only for s >> 1. However, in the limit when s → ∞, we show that the most unstable mode is n = 1 and derive the dispersion relation in this limit. The exclusion of most unstable low order harmonics caused by a finite outer boundary is not realized when the outer boundary extends beyond a certain threshold length-scale in which case all modes are equally possible depending on the value of B.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and large ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Suppressing Quantum Circuit Errors Due to System Variability

We present a quantum circuit optimization technique that takes into account the variability in error rates that is inherent across present-day noisy quantum computing platforms. This method can be run after qubit routing or postcompilation and consists of computing isomorphic subgraphs to input circuits and scoring each using heuristic cost functions derived from system calibration data. Using an independent standard algorithmic test suite, we show that it is possible to recover on average nearly 40% of missing fidelity using better qubit selection via efficient to compute cost functions. We demonstrate additional performance gains by considering qubit placement over multiple quantum processors. The overhead from these tools is minimal with respect to other compilation steps, such as qubit routing, as the number of qubits increases. As such, our method can be used to find qubit mappings for problems at the scale of quantum advantage and beyond.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

SCALE Analyses of Scenarios in the Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycle

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, the capabilities of SCALE 6.3.1 for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated through several scenarios in a molten salt reactor (MSR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three scenarios were selected for this study, with the molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR) serving as the reference design. The original thorium-based fuel salt used in MSBR was replaced with a 235 U-enriched fuel salt to better reflect anticipated future MSR concepts. The first scenario focused on the fuel salt preparation stage. Criticality analyses, using SCALE/CSAS-Shift and SCALE/SAMPLER, examined potential critical configurations in the fresh fuel salt container based on variables such as 235 U enrichment, UF 4 molar fraction, temperature, and container geometry. The second scenario explored the release of fission products during reactor operation in which the tritium buildup in the primary fuel salt was quantified through depletion calculations using SCALE/TRITON with continuous fuel makeup and fractional fission product removal. This scenario also assessed radioactivity levels in the off-gas system (OGS), quantifying radiotoxic nuclides that could be released into the environment. SCALE/SAMPLER was employed to perform uncertainty quantification to identify key operating parameters influencing the buildup of radiotoxic nuclides in the OGS. Additionally, radiation dose rates were calculated using SCALE/MAVRIC to estimate the maximum exposure levels within the reactor cell complex during operation. The final scenario evaluated the decay heat and radioactivity of the primary fuel salt collected in the drain tank, as well as the radiation dose rate outside the building from the presence of the drain tank. Overall, the application of SCALE’s various capabilities for radionuclide inventory generation, criticality analysis, and shielding in MSR fuel cycles was successfully demonstrated across these scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Neutron Irradiated SiC Layer Behavior using Micro-and Nano-Characterization Techniques

The complexity of fission product distribution and composition within the SiC layer of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles, irradiation effects on the SiC structure as well as the variable nature of metallic fission product release, has led to the exploration of multiple micro- and nano-characterization techniques. The fine scale of the fission product precipitates necessitates unique learnings and application of electron microscopic techniques with irradiated fuel during the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-1 experiment analysis. A summarized discussion on the specific advanced techniques with associated method development for TRISO coated particles is provided followed by the down selected techniques currently considered to provide the highest impact. Techniques considered are electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and Precession electron diffraction (PED). SiC grain boundary characteristics are evaluated due to the mobility of specific fission products through grain boundaries. PED was performed for understanding the role of grain boundary character on fission product transport. One set of comparative analyses between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles leads to a finding that the AGR-1, high-Ag-retention particle, had statistically more coincidence site lattice (CSL)-related grain boundaries (but fewer low-angle grain boundaries), compared to the AGR-2 particle. This implies that CSL-related grain boundaries may have a direct influence on Ag retention. However, precipitates were found on a relatively small fraction of CSL-related grain boundaries in both particles. In another set of comparison between AGR-1 and AGR-2 particles that were subjected to safety testing, there is significant differences in average SiC grain boundary distributions, but the fission product distributions on these grain boundaries are very similar.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Micro- and Nano-techniques for the Study of Fission Product Precipitation in SiC Layer

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Simulation of Spent Nuclear Fuel loading into a Final Waste Repository

Previous work towards studying repository loading have used: - spent nuclear fuel (SNF) with an average burnup composition; - a lumped capacitance thermal model for calculating temperature in a Cyclus repository model. The goal of this work is to improve on the repository models and use U.S. historical SNF inventory data in simulations to more accurately study the loading of a waste repository. These goals will be achieved by: - using UNF-ST-and-DARDS Unified Database (UDB) that has historic assembly-specific data (e.g, isotopic composition, heat) in Cyclus simulations; - implementing a more accurate thermal model within a Cyclus repository model. Objectives: - Create a Cyclus spent fuel conditioning model that packages spent fuel bundles into packages which have user-defined properties. - Create a Cyclus medium-fidelity repository model that gives accurate time and spatial dependent temperature values and loads the repository based on a user-selected loading strategy. Cyclus is an agent-based extensible framework for modeling flow of material through user-defined nuclear fuel cycles. In Cyclus, each facility in the fuel cycle is modeled individually and the facilities interact with one another as independent agents. The spent fuel conditioning model accepts spent fuel bundles and puts them into a cylindrical waste package. In the spent fuel conditioning model, the user can define variables: For each layer, radius, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity; For each package, Number of spent fuel bundles, Radius and height. The waste repository model accepts waste packages and emplaces them into available positions within the waste repository based on a thermal criteria. The thermal criteria is a temperature limit at the interface between the waste package surface and the host geology, that is set based on the repository's host geology. In the waste repository model, the user can define the variables: Capacity, Distance between waste packages, Distance between drifts, Repository host geology, Loading Strategy. After the addition of new waste packages at each time step, the waste repository model recalculates the temperature at each location in the repository. If the addition of this new package causes its temperature to exceed the thermal limit, it will be placed back into the buffer. A thermal model that relies on a transient 'outside' model and quasi-steady-state 'inside' model is used to accurately determine the temperature in the repository. The 'outside' model assumes a homogenous medium with the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) replaced by the geologic medium. Temperature solutions for the central waste package, adjacent point and line sources are superimposed to calculate the temperature at specific points in the repository. The central drift consists of one finite line source which represents the central waste package. The central drift also consists of point sources that represent neighboring waste packages in the central drift. The neighboring drifts are represented by infinite line sources. The 'inside' model is considered to be at a quasi-steady-state condition because EBS has a relatively low thermal mass compared to the infinite geologic medium. The steady state calculation is performed at each time step with the heat source and interface temperature as boundary conditions. Future Work: Run Cyclus simulations with U.S. historical SNF inventory data, the spent fuel conditioning and repository models to study how waste package acceptance strategies impact repository loading.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Weatherization Assistant NEAT/MHEA

The software provides a measure selection technique indicating cost effective retrofit activities that can be applied to a home using a standard Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR). Users must provide an input file describing the characteristics of the home to be evaluated. The software takes the input data provided and calculates energy savings and cost savings predicted for a standard set of measures given the input parameters. The Weatherization Assistant computes estimates of pre-retrofit whole building space heating and cooling energy consumptions based on the house description data supplied by the user. The consumptions are computed using a monthly heating and cooling variable base degree-day method by algorithms similar to those developed for the CIRA program [LBL, 1982]. The building consumptions are needed in computing the energy savings from measures affecting the efficiencies of the heating and cooling equipment. Weatherization Assistant then computes the energy savings and costs for each individual measure applicable to the building described as if it were the only measure installed in the house. From these energy savings, a discounted dollar savings over the life of each measure is computed. The ratio of this dollar savings to the cost of installing the measure, the "savings-to-investment ratio" (SIR), is used in an initial ranking of the measures' effectiveness. The "interacted" savings and SIR of measures are then determined assuming the measures are added to the house collectively, in order of their ranking, e.g., the second ranked measure is installed in the house initially described by the user after having been modified by the first ranked measure. If this second-ranked measure's updated SIR is greater than a user-defined limit, the measure is left implemented, else it is removed so that the next measure's effectiveness is not dependent on it. The choice between two mutually exclusive measures (such as different levels of insulation) is made on the basis of their "net present value" (NPV), the difference of life-time savings and installation cost, rather than their SIR. This has been shown to be the more correct criterion on which to base the selection between two measures, both of which cannot be installed. The audit computes and reports to the user the energy savings, discounted dollar savings, installation cost, and SIR for each measure considered cost-effective. For those with SIR greater than the user-designated cutoff, a materials list gives the material name, type, and quantity required for installation of the measure. Weatherization Assistant permits entry of pre-retrofit billing data for gas or electrically heated homes or homes with electric air-conditioning. The user may then make the decision to have the savings of the measures adjusted to reflect the difference in billed consumption and that predicted by the program.

Gettings, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hybrid Inverse Parameter Identification of Fully Coupled Ductile Damage Model for Steel Sheet DP600 with Two Different Algorithms: Trust Region and Genetic Algorithms

Ductile damage model has been widely regarded as a valuable method to predict the failure of sheet metal. Based on the thermodynamic theory and continuum damage mechanics, the fully coupled ductile damage model can be developed, which also can better predict the initiation and growth of the fracture. But the identifications of model parameters with theoretical methodology are difficult due to the complex coupling relationships existing among all state variables. The inverse methodology is regarded as a good method to resolve the problem. In this paper, the recently proposed fully coupled ductile damage model is chosen to investigate the deformation behavior of DP600 steel, in which the mixed saturation isotropic and kinematic hardenings are taken into account and fully coupled with the ductile damage. During the identification process, the least square formula of the error between experimental and numerical results is selected as the target function. The trust region algorithm and genetic algorithm are used with the help of MATLAB for the identification of three damage parameters. Finally, by comparing the experimental and numerical results, the validations of two algorithms are proved. The efficiency of the optimization process with trust region algorithm is higher, but with lower accuracy. Meanwhile, the optimization process is greatly affected by the chosen initial values of the ductile damage parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Environmental stress mediates groundwater microbial community assembly

Community assembly describes how different ecological processes shape microbial community composition and structure. How environmental factors impact community assembly remains elusive. Here we sampled microbial communities and >200 biogeochemical variables in groundwater at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center, a former nuclear waste disposal site, and developed a theoretical framework to conceptualize the relationships between community assembly processes and environmental stresses. We found that stochastic assembly processes were critical (>60% on average) in shaping community structure, but their relative importance decreased as stress increased. Dispersal limitation and ‘drift’ related to random birth and death had negative correlations with stresses, whereas the selection processes leading to dissimilar communities increased with stresses, primarily related to pH, cobalt and molybdenum. Assembly mechanisms also varied greatly among different phylogenetic groups. As a result, our findings highlight the importance of microbial dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity in ecosystem restoration and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗