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DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Visualization of Critical Points of 2D Scalar Fields for Parametric and Nonparametric Probabilistic Models

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. Here, in this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regular sensitivity computation avoiding chaotic effects in particle-in-cell plasma methods

Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation methods are attractive for representing species distribution functions in plasmas. However, as a model, they introduce uncertain parameters, and for quantifying their prediction uncertainty it is useful to be able to assess the sensitivity of a quantity-of-interest (QoI) to these parameters. Such sensitivity information is likewise useful for optimization. However, computing sensitivity for PIC methods is challenging due to the chaotic particle dynamics, and sensitivity techniques remain underdeveloped compared to those for Eulerian discretizations. This challenge is examined from a dual particle–continuum perspective that motivates a new sensitivity discretization. Two routes to sensitivity computation are presented and compared: a direct fully-Lagrangian particle-exact approach provides sensitivities of each particle trajectory, and a new particle-pdf discretization, which is formulated from a continuum perspective but discretized by particles to take the advantages of the same type of Lagrangian particle description leveraged by PIC methods. Since the sensitivity particles in this approach are only indirectly linked to the plasma-PIC particles, they can be positioned and weighted independently for efficiency and accuracy. The corresponding numerical algorithms are presented here in mathematical detail. The advantage of the particle-pdf approach in avoiding the spurious chaotic sensitivity of the particle-exact approach is demonstrated for Debye shielding and sheath configurations. In essence, the continuum perspective makes implicit the distinctness of the particles, which circumvents the Lyapunov instability of the N -body PIC system. The cost of the particle-pdf approach is comparable to the baseline PIC simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Pascal Discovery Mission: A Mars Climate Network Mission

The climate of Mars is a major focus of Mars exploration. With the loss of MCO, however, it remains uncertain how it will be achieved. We argue that a truly dedicated climate mission to Mars should have both orbital and landed components, and that these should operate simultaneously for at least I Mars year if not longer. Pascal is Discovery mission that emphasizes the landed component. Its principal goal is to establish a network of 24 small weather stations on the surface of Mars that will operate for 2 Mars years, with an extended mission option for an additional 8 Mars years bringing the total mission lifetime up to 10 Mars years. The stations will collect hourly measurements of pressure, temperature, and optical depth. After delivering the probes to Mars, Pascal's carrier spacecraft will go into an elliptical orbit which will serve as a relay for the landers, and a platform for synoptic imaging. These simultaneous measurements from the surface and from orbit will allow us to characterize the planet's general circulation and its interaction with the dust, water, and CO2 cycles. During entry, descent, and landing, each of Pascal's 24 probes will also measure the temperature structure of the atmosphere and acquire images of the surface. These data will allow us to determine the global structure of the atmosphere between 15 and 130 km, and characterize the local terrain to help interpret the landed data. The descent images are part of Pascal's outreach program, as the probe camera system will be developed by faculty-supervised student project. The intent is to generate enthusiasm for the Pascal mission by directly involving students. Pascal will be launched on a Delta 11-7925 in August of 2005. A type I trajectory will deliver Pascal to Mars in January of 2006. On approach, the three-axis stabilized carrier spacecraft will spring deploy the Pascal probes in 4 separate salvo's of 6 each. Global coverage is achieved with small time-of-arrival adjustments in between each salvo. Pascal's probes utilize an aeroshell, parachute, and crushable material for entry, descent and landing. On the surface, their long life and global coverage is enabled by a Micro Thermal Power Source with demonstrated heritage. After all probes are released, the carrier spacecraft will execute a small bum for insertion into an elliptical orbit. The long lifetime of the Pascal network was chosen in part to maximize the chances that orbital sounding, like that planned with MCO, would occur at some point during the mission. If Pascal is selected for launch in -05, this could occur if MCO-like science is reflown in the '05 opportunity or, if it is reflown in '03, the mission is extended to overlap with Pascal. The combination of temperature sounding from orbit, and surface pressure mapping from the surface will allow a direct determination of the full 3-D wind field for the first time.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Pascal Discovery Mission: A Mars Climate Network Mission

The climate of Mars is a major focus of Mars exploration. With the loss of MCO, however, it remains uncertain how it will be achieved. We argue that a truly dedicated climate mission to Mars should have both orbital and landed components, and that these should operate simultaneously for at least 1 Mars year if not longer. Pascal is a Discovery mission that emphasizes the landed component. Its principal goal is to establish a network of 24 small weather stations on the surface of Mars that will operate for 2 Mars years, with an extended mission option for an additional 8 Mars years bringing the total mission lifetime up to 10 Mars years. The stations will collect hourly measurements of pressure, temperature, and optical depth. After delivering the probes to Mars, Pascal's carrier spacecraft will go into an elliptical orbit which will serve as a relay for the landers, and a platform for synoptic imaging. These simultaneous measurements from the surface and from orbit will allow us to characterize the planet's general circulation and its interaction with the dust, water, and CO2 cycles. During entry, descent, and landing, each of Pascal's 24 probes will also measure the temperature structure of the atmosphere and acquire images of the surface. These data will allow us to determine the global structure of the atmosphere between 15 and 130 km, and characterize the local terrain to help interpret the landed data. The descent images are part of Pascal's outreach program, as the probe camera system will be developed by faculty-supervised student project. The intent is to generate enthusiasm for the Pascal mission by directly involving students. Pascal will be launched on a Delta II-7925 in August of 2005. A type I trajectory will deliver Pascal to Mars in January of 2006. On approach, the three-axis stabilized carrier spacecraft will spring deploy the Pascal probes in 4 separate salvo's of 6 each. Global coverage is achieved with small time-of-arrival adjustments in between each salvo. Pascal's probes utilize an aeroshell, parachute, and crushable material for entry, descent and landing. On the surface, their long life and global coverage is enabled by a Micro Thermal Power Source with demonstrated heritage. After all probes are released, the carrier spacecraft will execute a small burn for insertion into an elliptical orbit. The long lifetime of the Pascal network was chosen in part to maximize the chances that orbital sounding, like that planned with MCO, would occur at some point during the mission. If Pascal is selected for launch in '05, this could occur if MCO-like science is reflown in the '05 opportunity or, if it is reflown in '03, the mission is extended to overlap with Pascal. The combination of temperature sounding from orbit, and surface pressure mapping from the surface will allow a direct determination of the full 3-D wind field for the first time.

Haberle, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runway Configuration Management with Offline Reinforcement Learning

Runway configuration management (RCM) is a challenging task, and it affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and airport surface operations significantly. Each airport, depending on the geometry, capacity, local climate patterns, etc. has multiple configurations for the runway usage for arriving and departing flights. Many factors such as the incoming/outgoing traffic load, wind direction and speed, convective weather, cloud ceiling and other environmental factors might affect the choice of a runway configuration at any point in time. However, other factors such as safety measures and regulations, noise abatement, capacity of each configuration, and preference of the air traffic controllers (ATCs) can also play a significant role in selecting the configuration. A sub-optimal selection of the runway configuration, or delay in making configuration changes might result in significant increase in taxi times for aircraft on the surface of the airport, fuel and energy use of the aircraft, and maintenance costs. It can also lead to safety concerns, such as an aircraft performing one or more go-arounds before being able to land. All these factors make RCM an extremely important and challenging decision-making process for the ATCs. The current state of practice sets the runway configuration by the ATCs based on relevant information available at the time including weather, traffic, noise abatement, safety bounds, etc. This makes the decision-making process subjective based on the accuracy of the available information and the bias in human decision making. Unfortunately, this approach yields poor results (e.g., significant delays) if the predicted outcomes are uncertain and their relative impact is not well understood. This is especially evident when the uncertainty increases the size of possible predicted outcomes (combinatorial explosion in possible scenarios) that cannot be handled by human reasoning. On the other hand, an automated approach based on machine intelligence can make use of historical data and search through all (or significant amount of) possible scenarios under uncertainty and make well-informed decisions.

Milad Memarzadeh↗

NASA NTRS1994

The stability of hibonite, melilite and other aluminous phases in silicate melts: Implications for the origin of hibonite-bearing inclusions from carbonaceous chondrites

Phase fields in which hibonite and silicate melt coexist with spinel CaAl4O7, gehlenitic melilite, anorthite or corundum at 1 bar in the system CaO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-TiO2 were determined. The hibonites contain up to 1.7 wt% SiO2. For TiO2, the experimentally determined partition coefficients between hibonite and coexisting melt D(sub i)(sup Hib/L), vary from 0.8 to 2.1 and generally decrease with increasing TiO2 in the liquid. Based on Ti partitioning between hibonite and melt, bulk inclusion compositions and hibonite-saturated liquidus phase diagrams, the hibonite in hibonite-poor fluffy Type A inclusions from Allende and at least some hibonite from hibonite-rich inclusions is relict, although much of the hibonite from hibonite-glass spherules probably crystallized metasably from a melt. Bulk compositions for all of these CAIs are consistent with an origin as melite + hibonite + spinel + perovskite phase assembalges that were partially altered and in some cases partially or completely melted. The duration of the melting event was sufficient to remove any Na introduced by the alteration process but frequently insufficient to dissolve all of the original hibonite. Simple thermochemical models developed for meteoritic melilite and hibonite solid solutions were used to obtain equilibration temperatures of hibonite-bearing phase assemblages with vapor. Referenced to 10(exp -3) atm, hibonite + corundum + vapor equilibrated at approximately 1260 C and hibonite + spinel +/- melilite + vapor at 1215 +/- 10 C. If these temperatures reflect condensation in a cooling gas of solar composition, then hibonite +/- corundum condensed first, followed by spinel and then melilite. The position of perovskite within this sequence is uncertain, but it probably began to condense before spinel. This sequence of phase appearances and relative temperatures is generally consistent with observed textures but differs from expectations based on classical condensation calculations in that equilibration temperatures are generally lower than predicted and melilite initially condenses with or even after spinel. Simple thermochemical modes for the substitution of trace elements into the Ca site of meteoritic hibonites suggest that virtually all Eu is divalent in early condensate hibonites but that Eu(2+)/Eu(#+) decreases by a factor of 20 or more during the course of condensation primarily because the ratio is proportional to the partial pressure of Al, which decreases dramatically as aluminous phase condense. The relative sizes of Eu and Yb anomalies in meteoritic hibonites and inclusions may be partly due to this effect.

Beckett, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Humidified single-scattering albedometer (H-CAPS-PM SSA ): Design, data analysis, and validation

In this work, we report the development and validation of a new humidified aerosol single-scattering albedometer to quantify the effects of water uptake on submicrometer particle optical properties. The instrument simultaneously measures in situ aerosol light extinction ( σ ep ) and scattering ( σ sp ) using a cavity-attenuated phase shift-single scattering albedo particulate matter (PM) monitor (CAPS-PM SSA , Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, MA, USA). It retrieves by difference aerosol light absorption ( σ ap ) and directly quantifies aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA), the aerosol “brightness.” We custom built a relative humidity (RH) control system using a water vapor-permeable membrane humidifier and coupled it to the CAPS-PM SSA to enable humidified aerosol observations. Our humidified instrument (H-CAPS-PM SSA ) overcomes problems with noise caused by mirror purge-flow humidification, heating, and characterizing cell RH. Careful angular truncation corrections in scattering, particularly for larger particles, were combined with empirical observations. Results show that the optimal operational size to be D p < 400 nm. The H-CAPS-PM SSA was evaluated with several pure single-component aerosols including ammonium sulfate ((NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ), absorbing nigrosin, and levoglucosan, an organic biomass smoke tracer. The measured σ ep , σ sp , and the derived optical hygroscopicity parameter ( κ ) for size-selected ammonium sulfate are in good agreement with literature values. For dry size-selected nigrosin in the 100 < D p < 400 nm range, SSA values increased from ~0.3 to 0.65 with increasing D p . The enhancement in nigrosin σ ap at RH = 80% was a factor of 1.05–1.20 relative to dry conditions, with the larger particles showing greater enhancement. SSA increased with RH with the largest fractional enhancement measured for the smallest particles. For polydisperse levoglucosan, we measured an optical κ of 0.26 for both light extinction and scattering and negligible absorption. Our new instrument enables reliable observations of the effects of ambient humidity on mixed aerosol optical properties, particularly for light-absorbing aerosols whose climate forcing is uncertain due to measurement gaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Land Use Change Alters Soil Organic Carbon: Constrained Global Patterns and Predictors

Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha −1 ) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha −1 ), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha −1 ) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha −1 ), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2006

Bombardment History of the Moon: What We Think We Know and What We Don't Know

The absolute impace history of the moon and inner solar system can in principle be derived from the statistics of radiometric ages of shock-heated planetary samples (lunar or meteoritic), from the formation ages of specific impact craters on the moon or Earth; and from agedating samples representing geologic surface units on the moon (or Mars) for which crater densities have been determined. This impact history, however, is still poorly defined. The heavily cratered surface of the moon is a testimony to the importance of impact events in the evolution of terrestrial planets and satellites. Lunar impacts range in scale from an early intense flux of large objects that defined the surface geology of the moon, down to recent, smaller impacts that continually generate and rework the lunar regolith. Densities of larger craters on lunar surface units of dated age define a projectile flux over time that serves as the basis for estimating surface ages on other solid bodies, particularly Mars. The lunar cratering history may address aspects of Earth s evolution, such as the possible role of early intense impacts on the atmosphere and early life and possible periodicity in large impact events in the more recent past. But, much about the lunar impact history remains unknown.. On Earth approximately 172 impact craters up to ~300 km in diameter and up to ~2 Gyr in age are recognized. Although these data suggest greater relative numbers of younger craters, possibly suggesting a recent increase in projectile flux, both the diameters and especially the ages of most terrestrial crates are so poorly known that the differential terrestrial impact flux over time is uncertain. For the moon, densities of craters on some mare surfaces and crater ejecta deposits, for which we have measured or estimated formation ages, suggest an approximately constant lunar impact rate of larger projectiles over the past ~3.5 Gyr. However, the data are cumulative in nature and limited. Questions exist as to how accurately dated samples correlate with surfaces having measured crater densities. Studies of ages of many tiny impact-melt beads from Apollos 12 and 14 soils show a decrease in the number of beads with age from ~4 Gyr ago to ~0.4 Gyr ago, followed by a significant increase in beads with age <0.4 Gyr (2). These authors concluded that the projectile flux had decreased over time, followed by a significant flux increase more recently.

Bogard, Donald↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Excursions During in situ Oxidative Regeneration of Packed Bed Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Catalyst

Ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) uses a secondary reactor to upgrade biomass pyrolysis vapors to stabilized CFP oils with reduced oxygen content. In one configuration, the secondary reactor is operated as a packed-bed swing reactor system which allows coke-deactivated beds to be decarbonized in situ while other beds remain online for vapor upgrading. In situ decarbonization must be done carefully to avoid irreversible deactivation and/or physical degradation of catalyst pellets. Given that packed bed reactors are well known to have poor heat transfer characteristics, this is a critical issue impacting scaleability and commercial viability of the technology. To predict thermal excursions during regeneration, finite element computational models have been built to assist in scaling up oxidative decarbonization of a Pt/TiO2 CFP catalyst (0.5 mm spheres) from a bench scale packed bed with 100 g of catalyst to a pilot scale packed bed with 2 kg of catalyst and internal cooling tubes. Based on transient measurements of outlet temperature and effluent CO2 concentration, and using an assumed coke profile and activation energy, this paper demonstrates that specific combinations of effective thermal conductivity and wall heat transfer coefficient can fit bench scale oxidative regeneration data equally well. For the upscaled 2 kg bed, four bench-scale “best fit” parameter pairs give different predictions for location and magnitude of thermal excursions, with the maximum computed bed temperature gradients ranging from 30 °C cm-1 to as high as 3000 °C cm-1. The larger the fraction of heat removal by conduction through the cooling tubes, the greater the differences between the parameter pairs. The modelling results presented in this paper cast doubt on the industrial viability of the proposed combination of catalyst, bed and regeneration process, and point to the need for alternate reactor designs. However, there is considerable uncertainly in some of the key model parameters. The reliability of model predictions can be increased by adding more temperature measurements at key bed locations, testing additional variations in process conditions, performing careful bed dissections to determine the true coke profile, and perhaps most importantly, directly measuring the effective thermal conductivity of the catalyst pellets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the optical counterparts, long-term variabilities, radio jets, and accretion sources in 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258

In this paper we discuss a variety of issues concerning the exciting and mysterious Galactic center gamma-ray sources 1E 1740.7-2942 and GRS 1758-258. We discuss the problem associated with the highly uncertain X-ray absorption column toward 1E 1740.7-2942 and use the recent Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) results to narrow its range to 0.5-1 x 10(exp 23)/sq cm. Then the current upper limits from deep optical and near-IR searches of stellar objects at these source locations are plotted on an H-R diagram, from which we find the mass of a potential companion star of the (supposed) black hole in GRS 1758-258 to be less than 4 solar mass and in 1E 1740.7-2942 to be less than 9 solar mass. The observed well-collimated radio jets in 1E 1740.7-2942 require the existence of a stable accretion disk (presumably from binary accretion). The apparent association of 1E 1740.7-2942 with a high-density molecular cloud, on the other hand, points to possible accretion directly from the interstellar medium (ISM). We present an analysis of the energetics and kinematics of the radio jets in 1E 1740.7-2942. We present the long-term X-ray light curves of the two sources which include both the Granat/SIGMA's 3 yr monitoring data and all the data from previous imaging balloon and satellite observations over the last decade. The possible physical mechanisms responsible for producing both the long-term X-ray variations and the radio jets are postulated. We also consider Roche lobe-overflowing, low-mass X-ray binaries and Bondi-Hoyle accretion directly from a high-density surrounding medium. We propose a plausible scenario in which both sources are binary systems with a black hole primary and a low-mass companion and they are accreting mainly from the ISM at a rate self-regulated by the interaction between the accretion flow and the emerging hard X-ray flux.

Chen, Wan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional variability of dust single scattering albedo due to mineral composition

Nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) assume globally homogeneous dust aerosols, neglecting regional variations of the imaginary refractive index (IRI) due to varying mineral composition. This has led to a range of single scattering albedo (SSA) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) estimates, as models assign global properties using dust measurements from different regions. We use model and observational data to assess to what extent regionally varying mineral composition affects visible-band SSA and short-wave DRF of dust. We run global simulations with NASA GISS ModelE2.1, using optical properties for minerals based on laboratory-derived empirical relationships between dust IRI at visible wavelengths and the mineral content of iron oxides. When allowing mineral variations instead of homogeneous dust, we find regional differences in dust SSA up to ~0.06 and consequent variations in DRF up to ~6 and ~5 W/m2, at surface and top-of-atmosphere respectively. We compare model SSA with AERONET inversion data (Version 3.0, Level 2), filtered by aerosol size and optical properties to identify pure dust scenes. To investigate possible contamination by biomass burning aerosols, we use the dataset of Schuster et al. (2016, doi:10.5194/acp-16-1565-2016), who separately calculated the contribution of iron oxides and carbonaceous species to AERONET extinction and absorption optical depths. Our results show that: (1) the range of observed SSA (even without carbonaceous species) is larger than that resulting from homogeneous dust; (2) residual amounts of fine mode black and brown carbon may affect AERONET SSA even in seasons with limited biomass burning; (3) model SSA from our mineral scheme exceeds the AERONET range, possibly due also to an uncertain treatment of goethite. In summary, homogeneous dust cannot explain the variability of observed SSA, so regionally varying optical properties based on mineral content are necessary. Higher accuracy in soil mineralogy maps is needed to better reproduce SSA variations at regional scales. Also, distinct soil maps for hematite and goethite are required, given the high sensitivity of model SSA to their extreme optical properties.

V. Obiso↗

NASA NTRS2017

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Charging Needs for Battery Electric Semi Trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for electric trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. This paper summarizes methods and findings from Charging Needs for Electric Semi-Trailer Trucks [1] wherein we leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging - mid-shift (fast en-route charging) and off-shift (slow depot charging) - and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35% to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44% to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, the role of off-shift charging increases as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Monitoring the Intrinsic Absorption Complex Toward RX J1230.8+115

There is a very prominent intrinsic absorption complex in the spectrum of the quasar RX J1230.8+115. It was diagnosed as intrinsic due to partial covering of the quasar by the absorber, which can only happen for material very near to the quasar. Measuring a variability timescale for the absorption would allow us to place a more stringent constraint on the distance of the absorber from the central engine. Furthermore, understanding the variability and covering factors in different transitions can help to identify if it is due to changes in the ionizing source or transverse motion of the absorber. The OVI doublet is covered in the FUSE wavelength range. Unfortunately, our initial target, RX J1230.8+0115 could not be observed due to the failure of the first reaction wheel. We determined that another target, H 1821+643, could be observed and would satisfy similar science goals, understanding intrinsic narrow absorption line systems. Our specific goal for that target was to search for Ne VI11 absorption from the associated absorber. This observation was attempted, but the counts in the Sic channel, where the absorption was expected to lie, were too low to satisfy our science goal. This was, at least in part, due to a misalignment of the SiC mirrors. Because of this problem, more time was awarded. However, even the extra time was too little. It appears that the quasar may be too faint to properly align all the mirrors. So with disappointment, I report that we were not able to accomplish our science goals for this program. The funds were used to support my work with a graduate student, Jie Ding, to evaluate possible replacement targets once we learned that Rx J1230.8+115 would not be observable. We considered the intrinsic NAL candidates that we could find through a partial coverage analysis of doublets in the STIS E140M and E230M quasar spectra taken from the HST archive. We then checked the flux in the FUSE wavelength range, and in most cases of interest it was found to be too low to satisfy our S/N requirement in the exposure time we had been awarded. We decided that H1821+643 was the best choice for this project, even though the associated absorber we would be studying might in fact originate in the cluster with the quasar and not in intrinsic gas. Part of the appeal of the target, was in fact the opportunity to consider this issue. Please do not hesitate to contact me if more detail is needed for this report. I found it difficult to write a satisfying report under the circumstance and am uncertain if I've provided the proper level of information.

Charlton, Jane↗