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NASA NTRS1998

Thermal Modelling of Various Thermal Barrier Coatings in a High Flux Rocket Engine

A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of coated and uncoated tubes tested in a H2/O2 rocket engine. Temperatures were predicted for traditional APS ZrO2-Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings, as well as APS and LPPS ZrO2-Y2O3/NiCrAlY cermet coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted and measured metal temperatures at locations near the tube surface or at the inner tube wall. The thermal model was also used to quantitatively examine the effect of various coating system parameters on the temperatures in the substrate and coating. Accordingly, the effect of the presence a metallic bond coat and the effect of radiation from the surface of the ceramic layer were examined. In addition, the effect of a variation in the values of the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer was also investigated. It was shown that a variation in the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer, on the order of that reported in the literature for plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 coatings, can result in temperature differences in the substrate greater than 100 C, a much greater effect than that due to the presence of a bond coat or radiation from the ceramic layer. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of a coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries in order to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the temperature in a tube could exceed that in a rod by more than 100 C. Lastly, a two-dimensional model was developed to evaluate the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube and its impact on reducing the stagnation point temperature. It was also shown that tangential heat transfer does not significantly reduce the stagnation point temperature, thus allowing application of a simpler, one-dimensional model for comparing measured and predicted stagnation point temperatures.

Nesbitt, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Residual Stresses Modeled in Thermal Barrier Coatings

Thermal barrier coating (TBC) applications continue to increase as the need for greater engine efficiency in aircraft and land-based gas turbines increases. However, durability and reliability issues limit the benefits that can be derived from TBC's. A thorough understanding of the mechanisms that cause TBC failure is a key to increasing, as well as predicting, TBC durability. Oxidation of the bond coat has been repeatedly identified as one of the major factors affecting the durability of the ceramic top coat during service. However, the mechanisms by which oxidation facilitates TBC failure are poorly understood and require further characterization. In addition, researchers have suspected that other bond coat and top coat factors might influence TBC thermal fatigue life, both separately and through interactions with the mechanism of oxidation. These other factors include the bond coat coefficient of thermal expansion, the bond coat roughness, and the creep behavior of both the ceramic and bond coat layers. Although it is difficult to design an experiment to examine these factors unambiguously, it is possible to design a computer modeling "experiment" to examine the action and interaction of these factors, as well as to determine failure drivers for TBC's. Previous computer models have examined some of these factors separately to determine their effect on coating residual stresses, but none have examined all the factors concurrently. The purpose of this research, which was performed at DCT, Inc., in contract with the NASA Lewis Research Center, was to develop an inclusive finite element model to characterize the effects of oxidation on the residual stresses within the TBC system during thermal cycling as well as to examine the interaction of oxidation with the other factors affecting TBC life. The plasma sprayed, two-layer thermal barrier coating that was modeled incorporated a superalloy substrate, a NiCrAlY bond coat, and a ZrO2-8 wt % Y2O3 ceramic top coat. We examined the effect on stress during burner rig thermal cycling of the following independent variables: creep in the bond coat and top coat, oxidation, bond coat coefficient of thermal expansion, number of thermal cycles, and interfacial roughness. All these factors were suspected of influencing TBC failure. The model showed that all the material properties studied had a significant effect on the coating's residual stresses if the interface of the bond coat was rough. Bond coat expansion, bond coat oxidation, and bond coat creep had the highest effect on coating stresses, and these were highly interactive. The model also showed that the mechanism of stress generation during thermal cycling changed with the number of thermal cycles. Bond coat and top coat creep dominated stress generation during early thermal cycles, greatly increasing delamination stresses at the peaks of the bond coat. Therefore, creep is the prime driver for delamination cracking early in life, but cracking is limited to the bond coat peak region. Oxidation of the bond coat, on the other hand, tended to dominate stress generation during later cycles by greatly increasing delamination stresses over bond coat valleys. These results indicate that oxidation is the driver for the continued cracking necessary to cause ceramic layer spallation.

Freborg, A. M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling phonons in nanomaterials

The vibrational properties of nanomaterials play fundamentally important roles in determining their stability and various functionalities, from rippling of otherwise flat two-dimensional (2D) monolayers to the extreme thermal transport behaviors observed in one-dimensional (1D) and 2D carbon-based systems. Here we discuss modeling efforts to understand how phonons in lower dimensional materials differ from those in bulk, and how these behaviors manifest in their unusual properties. In particular, this chapter gives a heavy focus to calculations of phonon dynamics, interactions, and lattice thermal transport in 1D chains and nanotubes, 2D monolayers, and van der Waals coupled bulk materials from first principles methods. This chapter will discuss important phonon calculation details related to nanomaterials with examples and discussions providing both historical and modern perspectives.

Lindsay, Lucas↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microcanonical rates from ring-polymer molecular dynamics: Direct-shooting, stationary-phase, and maximum-entropy approaches

We address the calculation of microcanonical reaction rates for processes involving significant nuclear quantum effects using ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD), both with and without electronically non-adiabatic transitions. After illustrating the shortcomings of the naive free-particle direct-shooting method, in which the temperature of the internal ring-polymer modes is set to the translational energy scale, we investigate alternative strategies based on the expression for the microcanonical rate in terms of the inverse Laplace transform of the thermal reaction rate. It is shown that simple application of the stationary-phase approximation (SPA) dramatically improves the performance of the microcanonical rates using RPMD, particularly in the low-energy region where tunneling dominates. Using the SPA as a Bayesian prior, numerically exact RPMD microcanonical rates are then obtained using maximum entropy inversion of the thermal reaction rates for both electronically adiabatic and non-adiabatic model systems. Finally, the direct-shooting method is revisited using the SPA-determined temperature for the internal ring-polymer modes, leading to a simple, direct-simulation method with improved accuracy in the tunneling regime. This work suggests a general strategy for the extraction of microcanonical dynamical quantities from RPMD (or other approximate thermal) simulations.

Tao, Xuecheng↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermal acclimation of plant photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration in a northern peatland

Peatlands contain one-third of global soil carbon (C), but the responses of peatland ecosystems to long-term warming are not well understood. Here, we pursue an emergent understanding of warming effects on ecosystem C fluxes at peatlands by constraining a process-oriented model, the terrestrial ECOsystem model, with observational data from a long-term warming experiment at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments site. Model-based assessments show that ecosystem-level photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration exhibited significant thermal acclimation, with temperature sensitivities being linearly decreased with warming. Using the thermal-acclimated parameter values, simulated gross primary production, net primary production, and plant autotrophic respiration (R a ), were all lower than those simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. In contrast, ecosystem respiration simulated with thermal acclimated parameter values was higher than that simulated with non-thermal acclimated parameter values. Net ecosystem CO 2 exchange was much higher after constraining model parameters with observational data from the warming treatments, releasing C at a rate of 28.3 g C m -2 yr -1 °C -1 . Our data-model integration study suggests that peatlands are likely to release more C than previously estimated. Earth system models may overestimate C uptake by peatlands under warming if physiological thermal acclimation of plants is not incorporated. Thus, it is critical to consider the long-term physiological thermal acclimation of plants in the models to better predict global C dynamics under future climate and their feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermal design verification testing for the ATS-F and -G spacecraft.

There is a wide fluctuation in the internal power dissipation from the components within the earth viewing module (EVM). The electronic component functional reliability required for a two-to-five year mission is the most significant factor for the thermal design criteria. A mathematical thermal model of the EVM and the orbital environment is used to predict the performance of the thermal control system. Comparisons of the results obtained in chamber thermal balance tests with the data computed on the basis of the theoretical model provide the means for validating the thermal design.

Coyle, M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Aerothermal evaluation of a spherically blunted body with a trapezoidal cross section in the Langley 8-foot high-temperature tunnel

A model to be used in the flow studies and curved Thermal Protection System (TPS) evaluations was tested in the Langley 8 Foot High-Temperature Tunnel at a nominal Mach number of 6.8. The purpose of the study was to define the surface pressure and heating rates at high angles of attack (in support of curved metallic TPS studies) and to determine the conditions for which the model would be suitable as a test bed for aerothermal load studies. The present study was conducted at a nominal total temperature of 2400 and 3300 R, dynamic pressures from 2.3 to 10.9 psia, and free-stream Reynolds numbers from 4000,000 to 1,700,000/ft. The measurements consisted primarily of surface pressure and cold-wall (530 R) heating rates. Qualitative comparisons between predictions and data show that for this configuration, aerothermal tests should be limited to angles of attack between 10 and -10 degrees. Outside this range, the effects of free-stream flow nonuniformity appear in the data, as a result of the long length of the model. However, for TPS testing, this is not a concern and tests can be performed at angles of attack ranging from 20 to -20 degrees. Laminar and naturally turbulent boundary layers are available over limited ranges of conditions.

Albertson, Cindy W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Systems for Powering Safety Monitoring Systems of Offshore Oil and Gas Operations. OESI 2.0 M-1 T-1-P1.1 – Objective 1 Interim Report: Summary of Offshore Oil and Gas Well Monitoring Systems and Process Power Requirements

This report is part of a comprehensive research initiative aimed at evaluating the technoeconomic feasibility of deploying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions monitoring systems powered by small-scale renewable energy sources on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The study has three primary objectives: summarizing available GHG monitoring systems for the OCS, modeling a renewable marine energy source (specifically ocean thermal energy conversion, or OTEC), and modeling the collocation of OTEC power sources with offshore oil and gas activities to offset power demand.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling the Effective Elasticity of Anisotropic Porous Materials

The development and optimization of composite materials designed for thermal protection of NASA’s spacecraft require understanding their physical response to high-enthalpy environments. To predict their macro-scale properties and behavior, high-fidelity 3D simulations are performed at the microscale on realistic representations of these composites. The digital microstructures are generated either synthetically or through X-ray micro-computed tomography reconstructions. One of the main challenges in the prediction of the structural response of heatshield materials is the computation of the effective elasticity of the fibrous composite, as well as the understanding of the deformation and stresses generated at the microscale. These are driven by the fiber layout within the microstructure and the distribution of the infused matrix. In this effort, the micro-mechanical linear elastic behavior of fibrous ablators is modeled using a numerical method based on the Multi-Point Stress Approximation (MPSA) finite volume scheme, a generalization of the more commonly used Multi-Point Flux Approximation (MPFA) that was presented at the 10th Ablation Workshop. To predict the behavior of fibrous and woven architectures, algorithms that compute the local fiber orientation are used. The implementation of the MPSA was verified using analytical solutions, engineering test cases, and compared against legacy Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software. The stress analysis models were then applied to real geometries used by NASA in thermal protection systems such as fibrous preforms and woven materials and the results were compared to experimental data.

Elasticity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ambiguities in the hadro-chemical freeze-out of Au+Au collisions at SIS18 energies and how to resolve them

The thermal fit to preliminary HADES data of Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$=2.4 GeV shows two degenerate solutions at T≈50 MeV and T≈70 MeV. The analysis of the same particle yields in a transport simulation of the UrQMD model yields the same features, i.e. two distinct temperatures for the chemical freeze-out. While both solutions yield the same number of hadrons after resonance decays, the feeddown contribution is very different for both cases. This highlights that two systems with different chemical composition can yield the same multiplicities after resonance decays. The nature of these two minima is further investigated by studying the time-dependent particle yields and extracted thermodynamic properties of the UrQMD model. It is confirmed, that the evolution of the high temperature solution resembles cooling and expansion of a hot and dense fireball. The low temperature solution displays an unphysical evolution: heating and compression of matter with a decrease of entropy. These results imply that the thermal model analysis of systems produced in low energy nuclear collisions is ambiguous but can be interpreted by taking also the time evolution and resonance contributions into account.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Theoretical interpretation of thermal arrest data from differential thermal analysis measurements

A theory was developed to interpret the thermal arrest data of HgCdTe system from differential thermal analysis measurements. A nonlinear regression program is used to model fit the data. The purpose is to obtain a set of parameters which will give the information about average radiation coefficient, latent heat of fussion, and specific heat of the HgCdTe system at various compositions. The liquidus and solidus at various compositions are also obtained. The heat radiation from the furnace, heat radiation from the system, heat capacity from both the system and the quartz tube and the heat of fusion of the system are considered, however, it neglects heat transfer through conduction and convection.

Wang, J. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Sources and Mitigation Strategies for Thermocouples Integrated in Flexible Thermal Protection System Materials

• The flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) on NASA’s Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle will be instrumented with thermocouples (TCs) to measure the in-depth thermal response during entry into Earth’s atmosphere. Accurate flight temperature measurements are critical for verifying vehicle performance and reducing thermal model uncertainties. • The TC leads are routed from the measurement location to the data acquisition system within the same FTPS layer that they are monitoring the temperature. This approach eliminates the need to put holes in the FTPS layers. However, the insulated TC leads are exposed to high temperatures and large thermal gradients. • The baseline TCs were commercially available 30 AWG Type K TCs with a binder impregnated glass braid insulation. The glass braid is rated to a maximum continuous use temperature of 482°C. LOFTID’s heat pulse will be on the order of minutes and the maximum predicted temperature beneath the outermost FTPS layers is 1350°C.

R. A. Miller↗

DOE OSTI2026

Project Phase 1 Report: Reducing Data Center Peak Cooling Demand and Energy Costs With Cold Underground Thermal Energy Storage (Cold UTES)

Cold Underground Thermal Energy Storage (Cold UTES) is an ultra-long duration grid energy storage technology. With Cold-UTES, low-cost grid power is converted to cold thermal energy and stored in the native subsurface rock at the point of use. Cold UTES is one approach within the general category of engineered geothermal systems. Cold UTES for peak-hour cooling of data centers (DCs) was studied for deployment in Maricopa County, Arizona and Loudoun County, Virgina using thermal storage capacities from 4 GWh-th to over 1,000 GWh-th (>1 Terawatt-hour). The two sites have different power and transmission systems, available grid energy resources, daily and seasonal load profiles, weather conditions, and grid regulatory requirements. The study results indicate high value for both locations and because of this, likely indicates value across most of the US and the world. The basis of the study was a 1,000 MW-e hourly electric use of DC computing and auxiliary loads, which was modeled as 1 GW-th of thermal load to a dry cooled heat rejection system - i.e. a cooling system that does not consume water. The electric power required for cooling the DC varies as the air temperature changes. In cold weather only the dry-coolers are used, with an electrical load for cooling load as low as 10 MW-e. In hot summer hours, chillers and dry- coolers are required, which raises the electrical load for cooling load to as much as 300 MW-e. The continuous and peak cooling electrical loads result in a grid interconnection requirement of no less than 1,300 MW-e. From both a grid and thermal design modeling perspective the 1.3 GW-e could either be a single facility or result from the total load at multiple sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for active insulation in building envelopes

Active insulation systems (AISs) refer to building envelopes with insulation materials that can change their thermal conductivity and are coupled with thermal mass to reduce building energy consumption and peak power. In this research, a novel optimal control approach is proposed to evaluate the maximum theoretical energy and cost-saving potential of AISs. A time-varying model predictive control (TV-MPC) controller was used to optimally select the AIS mode and simultaneously determine the operation of the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system so that the maximum saving potential of the entire system can be realized. To comprehensively evaluate the power shifting flexibility of AISs, two optimization objectives—minimizing weekly electric energy consumption and minimizing weekly electricity cost—were considered. The summer season simulation results show that under the first objective, more than 50% electric and thermal energy was saved when the upper boundary of the indoor air temperature was set to 25 °C. Furthermore under the second optimization objective, 38% of the cost was saved. It can be expected that the developed approach can be easily applied to multiple types of AISs with different mechanisms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Ablation Modeling at NASA

The ambitious scientific payload and crew delivery goals of imminent and future NASA missions are associated with challenging and complex vehicle entries. Advanced ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials will be required for such missions, and, as such, a robust ablation modeling capability is critical to assessing performance by bridging the wide gap between ground testing and entry conditions. The traditional ablation modeling toolset - continuum thermal/materials response analysis - has grown recently to include high-fidelity, multi-scale, and multi-physics techniques that provide a more complete description of the rich physics and chemistry of ablation to better drive down risks related to extreme entries. The present talk provides a snapshot of ongoing NASA activities in ablation modeling, including a review of the current technical capabilities and tools at play within the Agency, the important role academia plays in supporting technical area advancements, and how such internal and external investments intersect with upcoming missions to drive down risks.

TPS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A combined theoretical-experimental investigation of thermal transport in low-dose irradiated thorium dioxide

During reactor operation, nuclear fuels are subject to extreme temperature and irradiation conditions which can significantly degrade the fuel's thermal transport properties. The reduction in thermal conductivity of the fuel as a result of irradiation-induced lattice defects is arguably the most important fuel performance metric in regard to reactor efficiency and safety. Because thorium dioxide (ThO2) is suitable as a model system for more complex materials such as UO2 and its mixed oxides, we present a theoretical investigation of thermal conductivity reduction seen in defect-bearing thorium dioxide and compare directly to experimental measurements. Phonon-mediated thermal transport of the fuel is modeled by a solution to the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) for phonons. A cluster dynamics (CD) model for lattice defect evolution during irradiation predicts defect densities which are used as input to the BTE for modeling phonon-defect scatterings. Phonon scatterings by lattice defects include those from point defects and vacancy clusters and interstitial clusters of various sizes. The CD model is benchmarked against structural defect characterization of irradiated thorium dioxide using electron microscopy. Thermal conductivity predicted by the BTE model is compared to measured values for irradiated thorium dioxide specimens below room temperature to isolate effects of phonon-defect scattering from intrinsic 3-phonon processes, which dominate at higher temperatures. The computed conductivity values are in partial agreement at temperatures close to room temperature while slight deviations are observed at the lowest measured temperatures, suggesting that implemented phonon-defect scattering cross-section expressions may not be adequate for low temperatures. The presented work provides a necessary investigation of the influence of irradiation induced defects on fuel performance and represents a first step toward a full characterization of phonon mediated thermal transport in irradiated materials with complex defect microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗