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Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Doman

The Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) domain addresses the development, integration, testing, and spaceflight infusion of sensing, processing, and GN&C functions critical to the success and safety of future human and robotic exploration missions. PL&HA sensors also have applications to other mission events, such as rendezvous and docking. Autonomous PL&HA builds upon the core GN&C capabilities developed to enable soft, controlled landings on the Moon, Mars, and other solar system bodies. Through the addition of a Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) function, precision landing within tens of meters of a map-based target is possible. The addition of a 3-D terrain mapping lidar sensor improves the probability of a safe landing via autonomous, real-time Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA). PL&HA significantly improves the probability of mission success and enhances access to sites of scientific interest located in challenging terrain. PL&HA can also utilize external navigation aids, such as navigation satellites and surface beacons. Advanced Lidar Sensors High precision ranging, velocimetry, and 3-D terrain mapping Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) TRN compares onboard reconnaissance data with real-time terrain imaging data to update the S/C position estimate Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) Generates a high-resolution, 3-D terrain map in real-time during the approach trajectory to identify safe landing targets Inertial Navigation During Terminal Descent High precision surface relative sensors enable accurate inertial navigation during terminal descent and a tightly controlled touchdown within meters of the selected safe landing target.

Robertson, Edward A.↗

NASA-SETI microwave observing project: Targeted Search Element (TSE)

The Targeted Search Element (TSE) performs one of two complimentary search strategies of the NASA-SETI Microwave Observing Project (MOP): the targeted search. The principle objective of the targeted search strategy is to scan the microwave window between the frequencies of one and three gigahertz for narrowband microwave emissions eminating from the direction of 773 specifically targeted stars. The scanning process is accomplished at a minimum resolution of one or two Hertz at very high sensitivity. Detectable signals will be of a continuous wave or pulsed form and may also drift in frequency. The TSE will possess extensive radio frequency interference (RFI) mitigation and verification capability as the majority of signals detected by the TSE will be of local origin. Any signal passing through RFI classification and classifiable as an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) candidate will be further validated at non-MOP observatories using established protocol. The targeted search will be conducted using the capability provided by the TSE. The TSE provides six Targeted Search Systems (TSS) which independently or cooperatively perform automated collection, analysis, storage, and archive of signal data. Data is collected in 10 megahertz chunks and signal processing is performed at a rate of 160 megabits per second. Signal data is obtained utilizing the largest radio telescopes available for the Targeted Search such as those at Arecibo and Nancay or at the dedicated NASA-SETI facility. This latter facility will allow continuous collection of data. The TSE also provides for TSS utilization planning, logistics, remote operation, and for off-line data analysis and permanent archive of both the Targeted Search and Sky Survey data.

Webster, L. D.↗

Search for dark matter decaying to two displaced muons produced in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV with the CMS detector, and for dark photons produced in electron-positron fixed-target collisions at 500 MeV with the PADME detector

Two novel searches for dark matter using particle accelerators are presented. The first is a search for inelastically-coupled dark matter with the CMS detector at CERN, relying on 137 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data collected at 13 TeV center-of-mass energy between 2016 and 2018. The search strategy exploits the striking signature expected of inelastic dark matter: a pair of displaced, soft, and narrow muons collimated with missing transverse momentum and recoiled off an initial-state radiation jet. This is the first search for inelastic dark matter at a hadron collider. The second experiment is PADME, a small-scale detector to search for dark photons located in Frascati, Italy. PADME seeks to detect the production of dark photons in positron-electron collisions with a stationary diamond target and a 500 MeV positron beam. The missing-mass technique employed in the experiment relies on constraining all four-momenta in the system except for the dark photon and lookin g for a bump in the resulting invariant mass distribution corresponding to the dark photon's mass. The projected sensitivity for both experiments is compared in the context of highlighting the need for a comprehensive experimental search program for dark matter. Both analyses expect first public results by the end of 2020.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design and construction of a new detector to measure ultra-low radioactive-isotope contamination of argon

Large liquid argon detectors offer one of the best avenues for the detection of galactic weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) via their scattering on atomic nuclei. The liquid argon target allows exquisite discrimination between nuclear and electron recoil signals via pulse-shape discrimination of the scintillation signals. Atmospheric argon (AAr), however, has a naturally occurring radioactive isotope, 39Ar, a ß emitter of cosmogenic origin. For large detectors, the atmospheric 39Ar activity poses pile-up concerns. The use of argon extracted from underground wells, deprived of 39Ar, is key to the physics potential of these experiments. The DarkSide-20k dark matter search experiment will operate a dual-phase time projection chamber with 50 tonnes of radio-pure underground argon (UAr), that was shown to be depleted of 39Ar with respect to AAr by a factor larger than 1400. Assessing the 39Ar content of the UAr during extraction is crucial for the success of DarkSide-20k, as well as for future experiments of the Global Argon Dark Matter Collaboration (GADMC). This will be carried out by the DArT in ArDM experiment, a small chamber made with extremely radio-pure materials that will be placed at the centre of the ArDM detector, in the Canfranc Underground Laboratory (LSC) in Spain. The ArDM LAr volume acts as an active veto for background radioactivity, mostly ?-rays from the ArDM detector materials and the surrounding rock. This article describes the DArT in ArDM project, including the chamber design and construction, and reviews the background required to achieve the expected performance of the detector.

Noble liquid detectors, Dark Matter detectors, Cry↗

Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment. Observing Years: 2007-2009

NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law.

Abercromby, K. J.↗

Radio telescopes as the detectors of super-high-energy neutrinos

The registration of super high energy neutrinos is a very difficult and also very important problem that requires construction of detectors with large effective target masses. Askaryan pointed out the possibility of registering cascades in dense media by the Cherenkov radio emission of an excess of negative charges in the cascades which arose in interaction between high energy particles and the atoms of medium. The telescopes for cosmic high energy neutrino detection by radioemission of cascades induced underground, but whose development continues in the atmosphere were proposed by others. The effective target masses of such detectors could be approx. 10(exp 9) tons and more. The properties of Cherenkov radio emission of cascades and the properties of ice in the Antarctic Region make it possible to propose Radio Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detection (RAMAND): antennas should be placed on the ice surface of approx. 10 sq km to search for radio signals for neutrino (muon) cascades of energy. It is evident from data given that the largest radio telescopes gives the opportunity for registration of the cascades induced by neutrinos with the energies E is greater than or = 10(exp 20) eV.

Dagkesamansky, R. D.↗

Adaptive Narrowband Damping for Improving Harmonic Stability of Modular Multilevel Converter: Preprint

Harmonic instability events between modular multilevel converter (MMC) and ac systems have been widely reported in recent years. To resolve it, this paper proposes an adaptive narrowband damping control that automatically programs, adds and adjusts damping around the oscillation frequency when detect the oscillation. The paper first presents a low-pass filter design for MMC control loops, which pushes all negative damping of MMC impedance down to the medium frequency range (< approximately 1000 Hz). This makes narrowband damping can be more targeted and easier to design because multiple harmonic oscillations are avoided. An adaptive damping control that uses online oscillation detection is then proposed, which can automatically configure the narrowband damper to provide damping to the MMC at the detected oscillation frequency. In contrast to existing narrowband damping methods, the proposed adaptive narrowband damper adjusts the damping gain (e.g., to zero when system resonance disappears) and the width of the damping range automatically based on continuous monitoring of system resonance conditions. Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation results validate the efficacy of the proposed method in two typical MMC-based power systems.

active damping↗

Biochemical Sensors Using Carbon Nanotube Arrays

Method and system for detecting presence of biomolecules in a selected subset, or in each of several selected subsets, in a fluid. Each of an array of two or more carbon nanotubes ("CNTs") is connected at a first CNT end to one or more electronics devices, each of which senses a selected electrochemical signal that is generated when a target biomolecule in the selected subset becomes attached to a functionalized second end of the CNT, which is covalently bonded with a probe molecule. This approach indicates when target biomolecules in the selected subset are present and indicates presence or absence of target biomolecules in two or more selected subsets. Alternatively, presence of absence of an analyte can be detected.

Li, Jun↗

Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?

Understanding and modeling soils and soil organic matter (SOM) are central to a variety of human needs, from food production to ecosystem management. Soil data have been collected for over a century, but the global spatial and process representativeness of soil data remains unclear. We assessed the representativeness of currently available soil data that could be used to understand a variety of SOM processes. We used 16 open-source soil databases and data from over 281,000 unique locations globally, categorizing the databases into three main data types necessary to understand SOM processes: soil carbon stocks and fluxes, mechanistic drivers of these stocks and fluxes, and soil carbon gain or loss potential. We found that stock and driver data have extensive global coverage. However, data on soil carbon gain or loss potential, particularly data describing change in soils over time such as time series data, are severely limited in their global coverage. We conclude that while significant strides have been made in measuring soil carbon stocks and fluxes, and their drivers, we are limited in global data related to changes in soils over time. Our recommendations for soil data generators are to ensure precise metadata reporting and prioritizing sampling in underrepresented areas like tropical, arctic, mountainous, wetland and arid regions. We also encourage designing revisit schemes that explicitly support change detection and reporting multi-modal datasets that can aid in model development. Targeted measurement of low coverage soil data types and regions is necessary for a range of applications including current and future biogeochemical predictions, and their management and policy implications.

carbon fluxes↗

Mass reconstruction of heavy neutral leptons from stopped mesons

Heavy neutral leptons (HNLs), depending on their mass and mixing, can be efficiently produced in meson decays from the target or absorber in short- to medium-baseline accelerator neutrino experiments, leaving detectable signals through their decays inside the neutrino detectors. We show that the currently running ICARUS experiment at Fermilab can reconstruct the HNL mass and explore new HNL parameter space in the mass range of 70–190 MeV. The mass reconstruction is enabled by two ingredients: (i) simple two-body kinematics of HNL production from stopped kaon decays at the NuMI absorber, followed by HNL decay into a charged-lepton pair and neutrino at the detector, and (ii) high resolution of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors in reconstructing final state particles. Our mass reconstruction method is robust under realistic energy resolution and angular smearing of the charged leptons, and is applicable to any LArTPC detector. We also discuss the synergy between ICARUS and future facilities like DUNE near detector and PIP-II beam dump in probing the HNL parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Real-Time Multi-Vehicle Multi-Camera Tracking with Graph-Based Tracklet Features

An essential application in intelligent transportation systems is multi-target multi-camera tracking (MTMCT), where the target’s activity is tracked from different cameras. Although the tracking-by-detection scheme is the primary paradigm in MTMCT, the object association information from the video frames is lost. This is mainly because the multi-camera multi-object matching uses the information from the video frames separately. To solve this problem and leverage this association information, we propose an MTMCT framework, where features are built in the form of a graph and a graph similarity algorithm is used to match multi-camera objects. In this paper, we focus on the real-time scenario, where only the past images are used to match an object. Our method achieves an IDF1 score (the ratio of the number of correctly identified objects to the number of ground truth and average objects) of 0.75 with a rate of 14 frames per second (fps).

Engineering↗

Search for low mass WIMP dark matter with DarkSide-50

DarkSide-50 is a direct dark matter detection experiment at Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso that uses argon as the target material. Exploiting the ionization signal from a dual-phase time projection chamber filled with low-radioactivity argon, it has set the most stringent exclusion limit on WIMPs with a mass of few \mathrm{GeV}/c^2 G e V / c 2 . A new analysis has recently been carried out with a larger exposure, profiting from an improved understanding of the detector response and background model. An improvement of about a factor 10 in sensitivity is expected for a WIMP mass of 2 GeV/c ^2 2 .

Kimura, Masato↗

Developing a high-speed terahertz imaging system based on parametric upconversion imaging for penetrative sensing

Imaging using THz waves has been a promising option for penetrative measurements in environments that are opaque to visible wavelengths. However, available THz imaging systems have been limited to relatively low frame rates and cannot be applied to study fast dynamics. This work explores the use of upconversion imaging techniques based on nonlinear optics to enable wavelength-flexible high frame rate THz imaging. UpConversion Imaging (UCI) uses nonlinear conversion techniques to shift the THz wavelengths carrying a target image to shorter visible or near-IR wavelengths that can be detected by available high-speed cameras. This report describes the analysis methodology used to design a prototype high-rate THz UCI system and gives a detailed explanations of the design choices that were made. The design uses a high-rate pulse-burst laser system to pump both THz generation and THz upconversion detection, allowing for scaling to acquisition rates in excess of 10 kHz. The design of the prototype system described in this report has been completed and all necessary materials have been procured. Assembly and characterization testing is on-going at the submission of this report. This report proposes future directions for work on high-rate THz UCI and potential applications of future systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Enabling Cybersecurity, Situational Awareness and Resilience in Distribution Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaics (CARE-PV) (Final Report)

Since legacy distribution systems have very limited visibility beyond the substation, high penetration of PV at the grid edge presents some unique operational challenges. One approach to address these challenges is to use information from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and µPMUs. However, exploiting this information is impacted by a number of factors, including multi-timescale measurements, volume of data generated, communication network impairments (e.g., information loss and latency) and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. Therefore, one of the critical tasks involved in the management of a distribution grid is to develop complete situational awareness by integrating cyber-security mechanisms with state estimation strategies and leveraging this situational awareness to assure energy services at strategic locations while exploiting AMI/PV inverter/ µPMU data. This CARE-PV project addresses the fundamental challenges in situational awareness and resilience to cyber and physical vectors by exploiting the synergy between innovative modeling, estimation, data analytics, testing and validation using smart PV inverters designed at K-State and facilities at NREL. Specifically, the project involved the development, testing and validation of the following novel enabling technologies: (Thrust 1) Resilience to cyber vectors that impact data integrity was addressed via a two-level defense strategy that combines cyber intrusion detection using self-learning, cooperative smart PV inverters, and a novel moving target defense framework to combat data integrity attacks. (Thrust 2) Resilience to cyber-physical vectors that impact situational awareness by limiting data availability was addressed via novel centralized and decentralized, sparsity-based static and dynamic state estimation approaches that enhance observability even when the underlying system is unobservable. (Thrust 3) Leveraging a unique probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach accompanied by one-of-a-kind dominant influencer set computation, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure at strategic locations was evaluated so that proactive PV-based control strategies can be used to support operations under normal/outage scenarios. These CARE-PV project innovations were demonstrated on both small-scale IEEE and larger utility-scale testbeds (Thrust 4). Feedback from Industry Advisory Board members was used to formulate a commercialization pathway for a subset of CARE-PV technologies. These CARE-PV technologies will ultimately lead to reliable and secure, large-scale integration of renewable energy and mitigate the risk of energy disruption resulting from cyber incidents and other emerging threats within the energy environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Developments to the Distributed Holdup Monitoring System in Fiscal Year 2025

Permanently installed holdup monitoring would provide a myriad of benefits to nuclear facilities, ranging among decreased facility burden, increased safety bases, and increased accuracy of relevant material controls and accountancy metrics. However, the cost per detection system must be affordable to provide reliable coverage. For this project, the target unit price per system has been $\$$1,000. Recent work has focused on pushing costs lower through developing a plastic scintillator and silicon photomultiplier (SiPM)–based front end, which are components that are not commercially available in conjunction with each other. Other work has included further system development and use of a low-cost SiPM. Finally, a limited deployment at a processing facility was achieved. Results from this deployment and the development process are discussed in detail.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Total kinetic energy release in the fast neutron induced fission of actinide nuclei

The total kinetic energy release and fission mass distributions for the fast neutron (En = 3–100 MeV) induced fission of 232 Th, 233 U, 235 U, 237 Np, 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and 242 Pu have been measured using the LANSCE facility. The neutron energies were deduced from time-of- flight measurements. The fission fragments were detected using Si PIN diode detectors, giving us the fragment energies. The actinide targets were made by vapor deposition leading to high-quality targets, that were thin and uniform with reduced impurities. Corrections were made to the data for pulse height defect and the fragment energy loss in the target and its backing. The TKE distributions were Gaussian in shape and their mean value as a function of incoming neutron energy could be fitted with second order polynomials. In the case of 233 U and 235 U, our measurements agree with prior work. Our measurements for 232 Th are unique. Our data agree with Viola scaling. The constant position of the heavy mass peak is interpreted as being due to the influence of the N = 88 and Z = 50 shells. The GEF model predictions agree with the data in general as do the CGMF model predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gamma-Ray Emission from Galaxies Hosting Molecular Outflows

Many star-forming galaxies and those hosting active galactic nuclei show evidence of massive outflows of material in a variety of phases including ionized, neutral atomic, and molecular. Molecular outflows in particular have been the focus of recent interest as they may be responsible for removing gas from the galaxy, thereby suppressing star formation. As material is ejected from the cores of galaxies, interactions of the outflowing material with the interstellar medium can accelerate cosmic rays and produce high-energy gamma rays. In this work, we search for gamma-ray emission from a sample of local galaxies known to host molecular outflows using data collected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We employ a stacking technique in order to search for and characterize the average gamma-ray emission properties of the sample. Gamma-ray emission is detected from the galaxies in our sample at the 4.4σ level with a power-law photon index of Γ ≈ 2 in the 1–800 GeV energy range. The emission is found to correlate with tracers of star formation activity, namely the 8–1000 μm infrared luminosity. We also find that the observed signal can be predominantly attributed to H II galaxies hosting energy-driven outflows. While we do not find evidence suggesting that the outflows are accelerating charged particles directly, galaxies with molecular outflows may produce more gamma rays than galaxies without outflows. In particular, the set consisting of gamma-ray-detected galaxies with molecular outflows are nearly perfect calorimeters and may be future targets for searches of high-energy neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗