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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models

Abstract. Parameterizations in earth system models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation, and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran–Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: an ML trigger function for convection parameterization and an ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Fortran-Python Interface for Integrating Machine Learning Parameterization into Earth System Models

Parameterizations in Earth System Models (ESMs) are subject to biases and uncertainties arising from subjective empirical assumptions and incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes. Recently, the growing representational capability of machine learning (ML) in solving complex problems has spawned immense interests in climate science applications. Specifically, ML-based parameterizations have been developed to represent convection, radiation and microphysics processes in ESMs by learning from observations or high-resolution simulations, which have the potential to improve the accuracies and alleviate the uncertainties. Previous works have developed some surrogate models for these processes using ML. These surrogate models need to be coupled with the dynamical core of ESMs to investigate the effectiveness and their performance in a coupled system. In this study, we present a novel Fortran-Python interface designed to seamlessly integrate ML parameterizations into ESMs. This interface showcases high versatility by supporting popular ML frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and Scikit-learn. We demonstrate the interface's modularity and reusability through two cases: a ML trigger function for convection parameterization and a ML wildfire model. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory usage and computational overhead resulting from the integration of Python codes into the Fortran ESMs. By leveraging this flexible interface, ML parameterizations can be effectively developed, tested, and integrated into ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards Fast and Accurate Predictions of Radio Frequency Power Deposition and Current Profile via Data-driven Modeling

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters ($n_{e0}$, $T_{e0}$, $I_p$, $B_t$, $R_0$, $n_{||}$, $Z_{eff}$, $V_{loop}$, $P_{LHCD}$) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to ~ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Treatment of Problematic Reactive Metal Wastes Using GeoMelt ICV - WM2020 Conference Paper

Decommissioning of sodium-cooled reactors and fast reactor technologies has generated a number of reactive metal waste configurations that are problematic to treat and typically lack cost effective treatment methods and disposition options. As a result, Veolia Nuclear Solutions, under contract with Idaho National Laboratory (owned by the U.S. Department of Energy and managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) demonstrated its GeoMelt® In-Container Vitrification (ICV)™ technology to safely convert sodium metal to a non-reactive vitrified oxide form. The demonstration project, supported by glass formulation and crucible testing, consisted of a series of ICV™ melts that processed elemental sodium into stable non-reactive glass. INL is currently implementing GeoMelt® technology as a means to safely and reliably convert radioactive reactive metal residues that contaminate sodium cooled reactor components into waste forms that comply with existing disposition pathways. Reactive metal wastes require treatment in order to remove the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) reactivity and ignitability characteristics to comply with land disposal restrictions. GeoMelt®, which is an alternative to other potential treatment approaches, provides a robust approach that chemically converts the reactive metals to an inert oxide while also immobilizing radionuclides in a vitrified waste form with durability equal to or better than vitrified nuclear fuel reprocessing wastes (very robust and inert waste forms). Most other treatment approaches generate hydrogen gas which is problematic. In 2016, Veolia Nuclear Solutions first demonstrated the effectiveness of the GeoMelt® ICV™ process in deactivating reactive sodium metal. Crucible, bench-scale, and engineering-scale demonstrations were conducted on several surrogate waste configurations with various ratios of sodium metal and glass-formers. Each ratio and configuration demonstrated complete deactivation of the surrogate sodium metal. Follow-on work in 2017 demonstrated the deactivation of reactive sodium by GeoMelt® ICV™ at a higher waste loading relative to previously demonstrated work performed in 2016; the higher waste loading optimized glass chemistry while enhancing the economical full-scale treatment of reactive metals. Additionally, follow-on demonstration testing in 2018 and 2019 focused on more complex shapes and other reactive-metals (mocked up Experimental Breeder Reactor II [EBR-II] subassembly, sodium filled heat exchanger, and a can containing sodium potassium alloy) which were all performed at engineering-scale. Since 2018, a 10-metric ton full-scale GeoMelt unit (GeoMelt® Richland) was designed, installed, and commissioned at Perma-Fix Northwest in Richland, Washington for the treatment of reactive metal wastes. As of September 2019, over 900 55-gallon drums containing a total of around 3,500 lb of sodium with low levels of radioactivity have been treated at GeoMelt ® Richland, with resulting glass monoliths disposed at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). A full-scale radiological demonstration melt on an actual EBR-II subassembly has also been performed using the full-scale melter in 2019. The GeoMelt® technology is a proven radioactive waste treatment technology capable of immobilizing radioactive wastes, including bulk rubble such as drums and other steel vessels usually without pretreatment. Utilizing the GeoMelt® technology to treat reactive metals eliminates pretreatment steps resulting from having to separate the reactive metal from steel containers or jackets as GeoMelt® can easily operate at temperatures sufficient to melt the steel and expose the reactive metal for treatment. Eliminating handling steps of reactive metals is a significant safety advantage since reactive metals are pyrophoric. The results generated as a part of the 2018-2019 demonstration program are presented in the paper.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Apprentice for Event Generator Tuning

Apprentice is a tool developed for event generator tuning. It contains a range of conceptual improvements and extensions over the tuning tool Professor. Its core functionality remains the construction of a multivariate analytic surrogate model to computationally expensive Monte-Carlo event generator predictions. The surrogate model is used for numerical optimization in chi-square minimization and likelihood evaluation. Apprentice also introduces algorithms to automate the selection of observable weights to minimize the effect of mis-modeling in the event generators. We illustrate our improvements for the task of MC-generator tuning and limit setting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Preliminary Procedures and Acceptance Criteria for in-situ Structural Materials Surveillance for MSR

This report describes the initial development of the technical basis for a materials surveillance technology that, when fully developed and validated, can be used by stakeholders to develop and implement a materials surveillance program to manage materials degradation during reactor operations. The procedures described in this report aim to bound the detrimental effects of the reactor environment on the creep-fatigue life of the reactor components through materials surveillance. Specifically, the report describes procedures for selecting critical locations within the reactor components for surrogate materials surveillance and the sizing and placements of passively-actuated materials surveillance test articles under development by the US Department of Energy, Advanced Reactor Technologies Program. These test articles apply cyclic thermomechanical load to a surrogate sample of the component structural material passively through thermal expansion mismatch within the articles, without requiring any penetrations in the reactor coolant boundary. The procedures can be used to size materials surveillance test articles so that they will fail before the corresponding structural component. These articles would be exposed to the component operating environment, located to experience a bounding radiation fluence and representative coolant exposure. They can be monitored during reactor operations to ensure that they have not failed under the combination of creep-fatigue damage and environmental degradation. The report describes the key technical decisions and the corresponding rational for using these procedures to provide advanced warning of any impending material failure. An appendix describes the technical basis and the procedure for sizing a family of passively-actuated test articles. Finally, the report describes future work needed to complete the technical basis underlying this materials surveillance technology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design and Optimization of a Gas-Cooled, Airfoil Fin Microchannel Heat Exchanger

High-performance microchannel heat exchangers are needed to supply heat for power conversion for nuclear microreactors. An airfoil fin microchannel design, constructed of Alloy 617 with helium as the working fluid, was analyzed and optimized using a design of experiments with artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. The use of airfoil fins offers the potential to reduce pressure drop across the heat exchanger, as compared to other types of channel configurations. A framework for topology optimization of airfoil fin PCHEs has been developed that can be readily extended to different fin sizes and shapes, as well as different inlet and operating conditions, materials of construction, and working fluids. An optimization procedure was developed that employs computational fluid dynamics for a set of design points identified using Latin hypercube sampling. STAR-CCM+ was used to analyze a simplified two-channel configuration where five parameters were varied – inlet angle, fin scale, extent of staggering, transverse and longitudinal pitches. Two methods were compared for generating surrogate models – a 5D polynomial and a regression neural network. A response surface approximation was created from the surrogate models and input to a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm identified a set of optimal points on the Pareto front. The optimal geometry was found across six channel Reynolds numbers ranging from 1000 to 5000 to analyze how varying inlet conditions affects the optimal design. A set of optimal designs that maximizes heat transfer and minimizes pressure drop was identified, and a thermal stress analysis was performed on the optimal design. This work has developed a digital framework for the expedient topology design and evaluation of PCHE designs for gas-cooled microreactor applications. Correlations for the Nusselt number and Darcy friction factor were developed that can be useful for thermal hydraulic analyses using system codes. A thermal stress analysis was conducted and a brief discussion of the status of code cases of PCHEs for nuclear applications is given. Testing and thermomechanical modeling is needed to facilitate future code compliance of PCHEs for high pressure and high temperature applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of Machine Learning to Predict the Response of the Liquid Mercury Target at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is currently the most powerful accelerator-driven neutron source in the world. The intense proton pulses strike on SNS’s mercury target to provide bright neutron beams, which also leads to severe fluid-structure interactions inside the target. Prediction of resultant loading on the target is difficult particularly when helium gas is intentionally injected into mercury to reduce the loading and mitigate the pitting damage on the target’s internal walls. Leveraging the power of machine learning and the measured target strain, we have developed machine learning surrogates for modeling the discrepancy between simulations and experimental strain data. We then employ these surrogates to guide the refinement of the high-fidelity mercury/helium mixture model to predict a better match of target strain response.

Lin, Lianshan↗

Progress Towards the Reality of Low-Temperature Critical Experiments with Low-Temperature TEX

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety do not exist below room temperature. Incredible support for below room temperature benchmarks is present across the international community. Validation of low-temperature neutron cross sections is necessary to verify any operation at temperatures below room temperature which is typically observed in environments far from the equator. For example, a fissile material transportation truck may routinely observe ambient temperatures down to -40°C, which is the lower temperature bound of the normal conditions of transportation defined in the United States Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations §71.71c2. Similarly, the IAEA, which contains 176 member states, has the same requirement for subcriticality for fissile material transportation. Additionally, sub-room temperature benchmarks can validate newly produced cross sections, that include novel thermal scattering laws, from North Carolina State University. A six-case experiment designed based off the TEX-HEU baseline experiments has been proposed utilizing a chilled vacuum chamber capable of cooling the HEU stack down to -50°C. The six proposed configurations span the entire neutron fission energy range and can be tested at intermediate temperatures between room temperature and -40°C. Of the six configurations, the fastest case utilizes nearly 135 kg of HEU. Understanding the system is required prior to critical experiment operations. In order to test the functionality of the system, testing with surrogate fuel materials has been conducted. The following discusses the design of the low temperature TEX (LT-TEX) experiment as well as the progress made via surrogate testing towards a reality in which low-temperature integral benchmarks exist in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

HIGH-LOW FIDELITY THERMAL HYDRAULIC COUPLING USING AI/MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

The primary goal of the US Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is to develop the tools and framework for coupling multi-scale and multi-physical thermal and electrical energy usage and storage systems. High- and low-fidelity (high–low) coupling is a key feature of multi-scale, multi-component systems and has been an important focus of research in the nuclear energy community for the past two decades. An essential feature of demonstrating the capability to couple high-fidelity and low-fidelity systems for real-time applications are surrogate/reduced order models (ROM). For the purposes of this study, surrogate models are essentially Blackbox models, typically developed using supervised Machine learning (ML) algorithms. The surrogate models can be used to mimic the response of high-fidelity models to represent large historical datasets and coupled with more general low-fidelity system models distributed as Functional Mock-up Interface (FMI) or Functional Mock-up Units (FMU) modules. The example is demonstrated with Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) First Target Station flow loop data. The flow loop is a liquid mercury loop with a pump, piping, heat exchange, and internal heat generation in the target window. This work elucidates some of the potential benefits and future needs of developing tools for high–low system coupling of energy systems.

Williams, Wesley↗

Stabilization/Solidification of Tritiated Water - 20135

Tritiated water was stabilized/solidified by using calcium oxide and a polymer. First, tritiated water was changed into the powder form of calcium hydroxide by addition of tritiated water into calcium oxide. Then the produced calcium hydroxide was solidified in waste form by using a polymer binder. The specimens of waste form prepared by surrogate calcium hydroxide were subjected to compressive strength testing and water immersion testing. In addition, the specimens of waste form prepared by tritiated calcium hydroxide were subjected to leach testing. The mean compressive strength of the specimens containing 40 wt % of the surrogate calcium hydroxide was about 98.5 MPa (14,300 psi). After water immersion testing, there was no distinct change in the appearance of the specimens. The mean compressive strength of the specimens after water immersion was 79.1 MPa (11,470 psi). The mean diffusion coefficient of tritium for the specimens containing 40 wt% of tritiated calcium hydroxide was 5.4 x 10-10 cm{sup 2}/s. These findings indicate that the waste form has enough mechanical integrity and durability for final disposal and releases tritium very slowly. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Treatment of Problematic Reactive Metal Wastes Using the GeoMelt{sup R} In-Container Vitrification (ICV{sup TM}) Process - 20326

Decommissioning of sodium-cooled reactors and fast reactor technologies has generated a number of reactive metal waste configurations that are problematic to treat and typically lack cost effective treatment methods and disposition options. As a result, Veolia Nuclear Solutions, under contract with Idaho National Laboratory (owned by the U.S. Department of Energy and managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) demonstrated its GeoMelt{sup R} In-Container Vitrification (ICV){sup TM} technology to safely convert sodium metal to a non-reactive vitrified oxide form. The demonstration project, supported by glass formulation and crucible testing, consisted of a series of ICV{sup TM} melts that processed elemental sodium into stable non-reactive glass. INL is currently implementing GeoMelt{sup R} technology as a means to safely and reliably convert radioactive reactive metal residues that contaminate sodium cooled reactor components into waste forms that comply with existing disposition pathways. Reactive metal wastes require treatment in order to remove the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) reactivity and ignitability characteristics to comply with land disposal restrictions. GeoMelt{sup R}, which is an alternative to other potential treatment approaches, provides a robust approach that chemically converts the reactive metals to an inert oxide while also immobilizing radionuclides in a vitrified waste form with durability equal to or better than vitrified nuclear fuel reprocessing wastes (very robust and inert waste forms). Most other treatment approaches generate hydrogen gas which is problematic. In 2016, Veolia Nuclear Solutions first demonstrated the effectiveness of the GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} process in deactivating reactive sodium metal. Crucible, bench-scale, and engineering-scale demonstrations were conducted on several surrogate waste configurations with various ratios of sodium metal and glass formers. Each ratio and configuration demonstrated complete deactivation of the surrogate sodium metal. Follow-on work in 2017 demonstrated the deactivation of reactive sodium by GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} at a higher waste loading relative to previously demonstrated work performed in 2016; the higher waste loading optimized glass chemistry while enhancing the economical full-scale treatment of reactive metals. Additionally, follow-on demonstration testing in 2018 and 2019 focused on more complex shapes and other reactive-metals (mocked up Experimental Breeder Reactor II [EBR-II] subassembly, sodium filled heat exchanger, and a can containing sodium potassium alloy) which were all performed at engineering scale. Veolia Nuclear Solutions designed, installed, and commissioned in September 2018, at Perma-Fix Northwest in Richland Washington, a 10-metric ton full-scale GeoMelt unit (GeoMelt{sup R} Richland) for the treatment of reactive metal wastes. As of September 2019, over 900 55-gallon drums containing a total of around 3,500 lb of sodium with low levels of radioactivity have been treated at GeoMelt{sup R} Richland, with resulting glass monoliths disposed at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). A full-scale radiological demonstration melt on an actual EBR-II subassembly has also been performed using the full-scale melter in 2019. The GeoMelt{sup R} technology is a proven radioactive waste treatment technology capable of immobilizing radioactive wastes, including bulk rubble such as drums and other steel vessels usually without pretreatment. Utilizing the GeoMelt{sup R} technology to treat reactive metals eliminates pretreatment steps resulting from having to separate the reactive metal from steel containers or jackets as GeoMelt{sup R} can easily operate at temperatures sufficient to melt the steel and expose the reactive metal for treatment. Eliminating handling steps of reactive metals is a significant safety advantage since reactive metals are pyrophoric. The results generated as a part of the 2018-2019 demonstration program are presented in the paper. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response

Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ICRF wave propagation and absorption modelling via machine learning

A surrogate model of the wave absorption in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies is presented. The model is trained to capture the physics of 1D electron and ion power absorption profiles for both the high harmonic fast wave scheme in NSTX, and the minority heating scheme in WEST. The surrogate models, based on both the random forest regressor and the multilayer perceptron algorithms, reduce inference time of 1D power absorption profiles from 1-5 minutes required by TORIC to ∼50 µs with high accuracy (i.e. R2 = 0.71−0.96).

Sánchez-Villar↗