Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “solar prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Attitude Control System for the Solar Cruiser and Future Solar Sail Missions

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing the Solar Cruiser solar sail mission to continue to mature solar sail propulsion. Solar Cruiser is a 95kg spacecraft capable of deploying a 1654 square meter solar sail. Solar Cruiser will demonstrate science observation capabilities and navigation in sub Lagrange Point (L1) halo-orbits. Solar Cruiser sail technology can be scaled to larger solar sail missions, including attitude control system and sail membrane and boom technology. Larger solar sails could be used to image the solar poles, enabling Solar Polar Imager (SPI) missions currently prohibitively expensive for propellant-based propulsion methods. Similarly, solar sails can be used to create artificial equilibria and indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of Lagrange Point one, L1, along the Sun-Earth line (SEL), which can provide space-weather monitor and prediction and reveal discoveries about our Sun and solar system. To achieve the high characteristic acceleration required for larger solar sail missions such as SPI, a solar sail area of approximately 7000 square-meters would be needed. In comparison, the largest solar sail flown to date is the JAXA’s IKAROS mission with a 196 square-meters sail. Attitude control an SPI-size sail poses challenges, including station keeping under solar sail induced torques and thrust vector pointing. In this study, the scalability of the Solar Cruiser sail attitude control architecture to larger sails is studied, such as pointing control performance, mass and power requirements. Solar Cruiser attitude control actuators include propellant-based, such as ion engines, and propellantless options which create differential solar pressures to generate spacecraft torques. Propellantless attitude control includes active translation of the center of mass, Reflectivity Control Devices (RCDs), and tip vanes. The study summarizes the scalability characteristics of the different attitude control architectures for larger solar sail missions.

Solar Sail Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1989

Nonlocal thermal transport in solar flares. II - Spectroscopic diagnostics

Physical parameters obtained for a flaring solar atmosphere in an earlier paper are used here to predict time-dependent emission-line profiles and integrated intensities as a function of position for two spectral lines commonly observed during solar flares: the X-ray resonance lines of Ca XIX and Mg XI. Considerations of ionization nonequilibrium during the rise phase of the flare are addressed, and the effects on the predicted spectral-line characteristics are discussed. It is concluded that some spectroscopic diagnostics favor the nonlocal model, but other long-standing discrepancies between the numerical models and the observations remain unresolved.

Karpen, Judith T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

DeLand, Matthew, T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nondimensional convection numbers modeling thermally stratified storage tanks: Richardson's number and hot-water tanks

Thermally stratified storage tank studies have spanned over 50 years to increase the thermal storage efficiency and accurate prediction of the outlet temperature particularly for solar applications. The studies have reviewed and modeled the jet and plume flow phenomena inside the tank due to the inlet mixing and stratification level. Kelvin–Helmholtz and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities are the major drivers of the mixing in these tanks. Momentum jets deflecting off walls at the bottom of the tank also create significant mixing. Reviewing Richardson models shows that the categorization was based on the range of Reynolds numbers at the inlet. Unfortunately, the use of superficial velocity in calculating the Richardson number results in critical values in the literature ranging from below 0.25 to 100. The most used length scale associated with these flows is an inertial scale based on the tank height or diameter although the mixing can occur at a relatively smaller scale. The various inlet devices and a large span of flow rates experienced in thermally stratified storage tanks requisite the use of the Reynolds number in combination with a convection number for accurate one dimensional models that predict performance over the long-term. The evaluation of peak shifting of electric loads leveraging renewable sources for applications, including residential hot-water tanks, commercial water tanks, and large-scale chilled water storage tanks, require these models. Finally, this paper is focused on establishing the significance of the convection numbers in conjunction with the Reynolds number for modeling the thermal stratification in storage tanks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contributions of the ARM Program to Radiative Transfer Modeling for Climate and Weather Applications

Accurate climate and weather simulations must account for all relevant physical processes and their complex interactions. Each of these atmospheric, ocean, and land processes must be considered on an appropriate spatial and temporal scale, which leads these simulations to require a substantial computational burden. One especially critical physical process is the flow of solar and thermal radiant energy through the atmosphere, which controls planetary heating and cooling and drives the large-scale dynamics that moves energy from the tropics toward the poles. Radiation calculations are therefore essential for climate and weather simulations, but are themselves quite complex even without considering the effects of variable and inhomogeneous clouds. Clear-sky radiative transfer calculations have to account for thousands of absorption lines due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases, which are irregularly distributed across the spectrum and have shapes dependent on pressure and temperature. The line-by-line (LBL) codes that treat these details have a far greater computational cost than can be afforded by global models. Therefore, the crucial requirement for accurate radiation calculations in climate and weather prediction models must be satisfied by fast solar and thermal radiation parameterizations with a high level of accuracy that has been demonstrated through extensive comparisons with LBL codes. See attachment for continuation.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS1998

Studies of the Martian Magnetic Field

This report covers two awards: the first NAGW-2573 was awarded to enable participation in the Mars 94 mission that slipped to become the Mars 96 mission. Upon the unfortunate failure of Mars 96 to achieve its intended trajectory, the second grant was awarded to closeout the Mars 96 activities. Our initial efforts concentrated on assisting our colleagues: W. Riedler, K. Schwingenschuh, K. Gringanz, M. Verigin and Ye. Yeroshenko with advice on the development of the magnetic field portion of the investigation and to help them with test activities. We also worked with them to properly analyze the Phobos magnetic field and plasma data in order to optimize the return from the Mars 94/96 mission. This activity resulted in 18 papers on Mars scientific topics, and two on the instrumentation. One of these latter two papers was the last of the papers written, and speaks to the value of the closeout award. These 20 papers are listed in the attached bibliography. Because we had previously studied Venus and Titan and since it was becoming evident that the magnetic field was very weak, we compared the various properties of the Martian interaction with those of the analogous interactions at Venus and Titan while other papers simply analyzed the properties of the interaction as Phobos 2 observed them. One very interesting observation was the identification of ions picked up in the solar wind, originating in Mars neutral atmosphere. These had been predicted by our earlier observation of cyclotron waves at the proton gyrofrequency in the region upstream from Mars in the solar wind. Of course, the key question we addressed was that of the intrinsic or induced nature of the Martian magnetic field. We found little evidence for the former and much for the latter point of view. We also discussed the instrumentation planned for the Mars balloon and the instrumentation on the orbiter. In all these studies were very rewarding despite the short span of the Phobos data. Although they did not affect the eventual analysis of the Mars 96 data, these studies did pave the way for the Mars Global Surveyor and have been fully confirmed by the measurements at much closer distances than Phobos 2 ever reached. No patents or inventions resulted from the work.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Plasma Interaction with International Space Station High Voltage Solar Arrays

The International Space Station (ISS) is presently being assembled in low-earth orbit (LEO) operating high voltage solar arrays (-160 V max, -140 V typical with respect to the ambient atmosphere). At the station's present altitude, there exists substantial ambient plasma that can interact with the solar arrays. The biasing of an object to an electric potential immersed in plasma creates a plasma "sheath" or non-equilibrium plasma around the object to mask out the electric fields. A positively biased object can collect electrons from the plasma sheath and the sheath will draw a current from the surrounding plasma. This parasitic current can enter the solar cells and effectively "short out" the potential across the cells, reducing the power that can be generated by the panels. Predictions of collected current based on previous high voltage experiments (SAMPIE (Solar Array Module Plasma Interactions Experiment), PASP+ (Photovoltaic Array Space Power) were on the order of amperes of current. However, present measurements of parasitic current are on the order of several milliamperes, and the current collection mainly occurs during an "eclipse exit" event, i.e., when the space station comes out of darkness. This collection also has a time scale, t approx. 1000 s, that is much slower than any known plasma interaction time scales. The reason for the discrepancy between predictions and present electron collection is not understood and is under investigation by the PCU (Plasma Contactor Unit) "Tiger" team. This paper will examine the potential structure within and around the solar arrays, and the possible causes and reasons for the electron collection of the array.

John W. Heard↗
NASA NTRS1985

Remote sensing of wetland biomass and productivity for global biosystem research

The study of ecosystem function and the contributions of particular ecosystems to global elemental cycling will require data collection from orbital platforms. Presently used ground sampling techniques are not adequate for large area vegetation assessments. The research was directed toward an understanding of the relationship between spectral radiance and plant canopy biomass. Changes in the architecture of the canopy alters the observed spectral radiance patterns. The green components of a plant canopy interacts most strongly with incident radiation and usually reflect edaphic conditions as they relate to plant vigor. Plant biomass serves as an excellent integrator of the environmental factors encountered by the plant and can be used as an indicator for predicting soil redox, nutrient status, microbial activity, etc. The use was examined of TM spectral data to discriminate biomass classes and, in turn, to relate the biomass classes to the chemical status of the soil. Several preliminary studies have indicated that solar angle can be used to improve biomass predictions. This important observation also suggests that latitudinal extrapolation of the biomass predicting models will be possible if selected characteristics of the incident radiation are known.

Hardisky, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A solar spectral line list between 10 and 200 A modified for application to high spectral resolution X-ray astronomy

A spectral line list for the 10-200 A range is developed from existing solar spectra for application to high spectral resolution measurements of astrophysical plasmas. The solar spectral line lists are merged into a single comprehensive list. The effect of the solar emission measure distribution is removed from the line intensities, which results in a set of emission rates for the lines that can be applied to many optically thin, low density high temperature plasmas in ionization equilibrium. In addition to the measured solar lines, 250 theoretical lines are added to this list. These lines fall in wavelength regions where the existing solar lists have few lines because of limitations in instrumental sensitivity. Also, some lines have been added because the sun has very little plasma at temperatures of about one million K, and consequently these lines are weak or absent in solar spectra. The entire list contains about 600 lines. Finally, predicted spectra of the two RS CVn stars, alpha Aur (Capella) and UX Ari, are presented at 1 and 0.25 A spectral resolution. Also, the solar spectrum is shown at 1 A resolution, and the emission rate spectrum (spectrum not modified by an emission measure distribution) is shown at very high spectral resolution. The predicted spectra for Capella and UX Ari are based on results obtained from the Einstein and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spacecraft.

Doschek, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Primordial retention of nitrogen by terrestrial planets and meteorites

Thermodynamic calculations of the amount of dissolved nitrogen in Fe-Ni alloy in a solar composition gas were done over a wide range of temperatures and pressures. The stabilities of the nitride minerals found in meteorites, a large number of other nitrides, and ammonium aluminosilicates were also calculated in a solar gas. This thorough study indicates that equilibrium mechanisms cannot account for the nitrogen contents of the terrestrial planets and meteorites. The best available data indicate that the observed nitrogen contents of planets and meteorites are several orders of magnitude greater than the predicted nitrogen contents of condensed material in a solar gas. It is suggested that the nitrogen in meteorites was originally retained as organic compounds produced by disequilibrium mechanisms. Nitrogen retention by the terrestrial planets could be due to homogeneous accretion or to accretion of a volatile-rich veneer. However, the actual mode of nitrogen accretion cannot yet be determined.

Fegley, B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Dust in the solar nebula

The chemical and mineralogical features of the white, Ca-rich inclusions in Allende and other carbonaceous chondrites are strikingly similar to those predicted from thermodynamic models for the highest temperature condensates from the solar nebula. Many of the physical and chemical properties of the chondritic minerals may thus be quite like those of the dust in interstellar regions. The oxygen isotopic composition of meteoritic condensates suggests that they contain a component of interstellar dust that survived the birth of the solar system.

Grossman, L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Power System Options Evaluated for the Radiation and Technology Demonstration Mission

The Radiation and Technology Demonstration (RTD) Mission is under joint study by three NASA Centers: the NASA Johnson Space Center, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. This Earth-orbiting mission, which may launch on a space shuttle in the first half of the next decade, has the primary objective of demonstrating high-power electric thruster technologies. Secondary objectives include better characterization of Earth's Van Allen trapped-radiation belts, measurement of the effectiveness of the radiation shielding for human protection, measurement of radiation effects on advanced solar cells, and demonstration of radiation-tolerant microelectronics. During the mission, which may continue up to 1 year, the 2000-kg RTD spacecraft will first spiral outward from the shuttle-deployed, medium-inclination, low Earth orbit. By the phased operation of a 10-kW Hall thruster and a 10-kW Variable Specific Impulse Magneto-Plasma Rocket, the RTD spacecraft will reach a low-inclination Earth orbit with a radius greater than five Earth radii. This will be followed by an inward spiraling orbit phase when the spacecraft deploys 8 to 12 microsatellites to map the Van Allen belts. The mission will conclude in low Earth orbit with the possible retrieval of the spacecraft by the space shuttle. A conceptual RTD spacecraft design showing two photovoltaic (PV) array wings, the Hall thruster with propellant tanks, and stowed microsatellites is presented. Early power system studies assessed five different PV array design options coupled with a 120-Vdc power management and distribution system (PMAD) and secondary lithium battery energy storage. Array options include (1) state-of-the-art 10-percent efficient three-junction amorphous SiGe thin-film cells on thin polymer panels deployed with an inflatable (or articulated) truss, (2) SCARLET array panels, (3) commercial state-of-the-art, planar PV array rigid panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells, (4) rigid panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells, in a 2 -concentrator trough configuration, and (5) thin polymer panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells deployed with an inflatable (or articulated) truss. To assess the relative merits of these PV array design options, the study group developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled Earth orbital environments important for accurately predicting PV array performance. The most important environmental effect, solar cell radiation degradation, was calculated from electron-proton fluence input from the industry standard AE8/AP8 trapped radiation models and the concept of damage equivalence. Power systems were sized to provide 10 kW of thruster power and approximately 1 kW of spacecraft power at end of life. Of the five PV array design options, the option 1 (thin-film cells) power system was the most massive 590 kg, whereas the option 4 (trough concentrator) power system was the lightest 260 kg. Arguably, the lowest cost would come from the option 3 (commercial array panels) power system with an acceptable, albeit greater, system mass of 320 kg. Predicted power system performance during the spiral-out mission phase is shown the preceding graph for the option 5 (flexible-panel) array. From the results, the radiation-induced power loss over time is evident as the spacecraft slowly spirals outward through the trapped proton belt. The importance of the spiral trip time is also evident in the two curves representing 74-day and 182-day spiral-out periods. The longer spiral time introduces a beginning-of-life power oversizing penalty greater than 1 kW. Future studies will analyze power system performance and mass with a 50-Vdc power management and distribution architecture favorable to the VASIMR thruster and longer missions.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS1978

Variation of solar cell sensitivity and solar radiation on tilted surfaces

An empirical study was performed (1) to evaluate the validity of various insolation models used to compute solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces from global data measured on horizontal surfaces and (2) to determine the variation of solar cell sensitivity to solar radiation over a wide range of atmospheric condition. Evaluation of the insolation data indicates that the isotropic sky model of Liu and Jordan underestimates the amount of solar radiation falling on tilted surfaces by as much as 10%. An anisotropic-clear-sky model proposed by Temps and Coulson was also evaluated and found to be deficient under cloudy conditions. A new model, formulated herein, reduced the deviations between measured and predicted insolation to less than 3%. Evaluation of solar cell sensitivity data indicates small change (2-3%) in sensitivity from winter to summer for tilted cells. The feasibility of using such global data as a means for calibrating terrestrial solar cells as done by Treble is discussed.

Klucher, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Examination of returned solar-max surfaces for impacting orbital debris and meteoroids

Previous theoretical studies predicted that in certain regions of earth orbit, the man-made earth orbiting debris environment will soon exceed the interplanetary meteoroid environment for sizes smaller than 1 cm. The surfaces returned from the repaired Solar Max Mission (SMM) by STS 41-C on April 12, 1984, offered an excellent opportunity to examine both the debris and meteoroid environments. To date, approximately 0.7 sq. met. of the thermal insulation and 0.05 sq. met of the aluminum louvers have been mapped by optical microscope for crater diameters larger than 40 microns. Craters larger in diameter than about 100 microns found on the initial 75 micron thick Kapton first sheet on the MEB (Main Electronics Box) blanket are actually holes and constitute perforations through that blanket. The following populations have been found to date in impact sites on these blankets: (1) meteoritic material; (2) thermal paint particles; (3) aluminum droplets; and (4) waste particles.

Kessler, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Advanced supercritical carbon dioxide cycles

The supercritical carbon dioxide cycle (sCO2) has been chosen as the most promising cycle to meet the SunShot goals with a power block that has the potential to achieve thermal efficiencies of 50+% with a turbine inlet temperature of 720 o C. While this cycle has significant potential, it is a fairly new cycle and therefore the costs and performance of the cycle are not known to the level required for detailed economic analysis. There are also multiple cycle configurations that may be used and the choice of configuration could depend on size, cost constraints, efficiency, cooling mode, O&M costs, etc. Each of the variants has particular advantages and drawbacks that have to be understood. The most cost effective way to understand these variants is to use models that allow us to predict the performance of the cycles linked to the heat source (solar thermal energy). In order to do this these models, need to be developed and improved to better predict the costs and performance of the cycle. One of the issues identified with the supercritical Brayton cycle is the fact that a large amount of internal heat exchange is required in order for it to realize its efficiency potential. To address this, recuperators of the Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) design have been primarily considered. While PCHEs are fairly advanced technology and have significant potential there are several drawbacks associated with them. The first being their cost; it is estimated that the two recuperators in a recompression Brayton cycle will cost more than 30% of the entire power block. Another major issue is the in service performance and lack of ability to repair or easily clean the recuperators. If there is a defect in a diffusion bond, fouling or plugging of the channels or mechanical damage due to rapid thermal transient then the entire PCHE may need to be replaced. The third issue is the lack of data and information on the performance of PCHEs at the scale that would be required even for a small 10 MWe plant. To date PCHE heat exchangers have not been constructed at this size and it is necessary to have multiple modules headered together in order to be able to recuperate up to the 40 MWth required in even a small, 10 MWe plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar gravitational redshift

Wavelengths of solar spectrum lines should be shifted toward the red by the sun's gravitational field as predicted by metric theories of gravity according to the principle of equivalence. Photographic wavelengths of 738 solar Fe I lines and their corresponding laboratory wavelengths have been studied. The measured solar wavelength minus the laboratory wavelength averaged for the strong lines agrees well with the theoretically predicted shift. Studies show that the departures depend on line strength. No dependence of the departures on wavelength was found within the existing data. By studying strong lines over a wide spectral range, velocity shifts caused by the complex motions in the solar atmosphere seem to affect the results in a minimal fashion.

Lopresto, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin Empowered PV Power Prediction

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significant to ensure the economic and safe operation of power systems. To this end, the paper proposes a new digital twin (DT) empowered PV power prediction framework that is capable of ensuring reliable data transmission and employing the DT to achieve high accuracy of power prediction. With this framework, considering potential data contamination in the collected PV data, a generative adversarial network is employed to restore the historical data set, which offers a prerequisite to ensure accurate mapping from the physical space to the digital space. Further, a new DT empowered PV power prediction method is proposed. Therein, we model a DT that encompasses a digital physical model for reflecting the physical operation mechanism and a neural network model (i.e., a parallel network of convolution and bidirectional long-short-term memory model) for capturing the hidden spatial-temporal features. The proposed method enables the use of the DT to take advantages of the digital physical model and the neural network model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a real data set is conducted to access the effectiveness of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗