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N+3 Small Commercial Efficient and Quiet Transportation for Year 2030-2035

This study develops a future scenario that enables convenient point-to-point commercial air travel via a large network of community airports and a new class of small airliners. A network demand and capacity study identifies current and future air travel demands and the capacity of this new network to satisfy these demands. A current technology small commercial airliner is defined to meet the needs of the new network, as a baseline for evaluating the improvement brought about by advanced technologies. Impact of this new mode of travel on the infrastructure and surrounding communities of the small airports in this new N+3 network are also evaluated. Year 2030-2035 small commercial airliner technologies are identified and a trade study conducted to evaluate and select those with the greatest potential for enhancing future air travel and the study metrics. The selected advanced air vehicle concept is assessed against the baseline aircraft, and an advanced, but conventional aircraft, and the study metrics. The key technologies of the selected advanced air vehicle are identified, their impact quantified, and risk assessments and roadmaps defined.

DAngelo, Martin M.↗

A Reinforcement Learning Hyper-Heuristic in Multi-Objective Optimization with Application to Structural Damage Identification

Multi-objective optimization allows satisfying multiple decision criteria concurrently, and generally yields multiple solutions. It has the potential to be applied to structural damage identification applications which are oftentimes under-determined. How to achieve high-quality solutions in terms of accuracy, diversity, and completeness is a challenging research subject. The solution techniques and parametric selections are believed to be problem specific. In this research, we formulate a reinforcement learning hyper-heuristic scheme to work coherently with the single-point search algorithm MOSA/R (Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Algorithm based on Re-seed). The four low-level heuristics proposed can meet various optimization requirements adaptively and autonomously using the domination amount, crowding distance, and hypervolume calculations. The new approach exhibits improved and more robust performance than AMOSA, NSGA-II, and MOEA/D when applied to benchmark test cases. It is then applied to an active damage interrogation scheme for structural damage identification where solution diversity/completeness and accuracy are critically important. Results show that this approach can successfully include the true damage scenario in the solution set identified. The outcome of this research can potentially be extended to a variety of applications.

Pei Cao↗

DESIGN ISSUES AND QUALIFICATION OF HYDROFORMED DOUBLE WALLED EXPANSION JOINTS IN VACUUM SERVICE

The Vacuum Auxiliary System for ITER is devoted to pumping out, venting, and purging the vacuum volumes of the tokamak. Over 5000 clients including the cryostat and vacuum vessel, at 8500 m3 and 1400 m3 respectively, are serviced by approximately 150 pumping stations through 6 km of pipework. The piping and functions provided to the clients include component operation, routing of potentially tritiated gases, and timely leak localization. Expansion joints are used to reduce loadings on pumps and piping stresses but also to qualify in-line components having low allowable design loads. The ITER project utilizes vacuum valves that are not designed to withstand typical piping system loadings and require detailed design and evaluation. Loading scenarios prescribed by governing system specifications must be considered. To maintain allowable design loads for components and to keep piping stresses below code requirements, double walled hydroformed expansion joints have been employed in the design. These are not standard items and require custom fabrication. Installation space constraints and adjacent pipe support attachment location availability at ITER limit standard expansion joint installation guidelines provided by the Expasion Joint Manufacturers Association (EJMA). Careful consideration must be given to the analysis model to ensure proper function and life expectancy of the component. These considerations include accurate accounting of thrust forces, thermal movements, seismic accelerations, equipment and building differential displacements. In addition to displacements, the process internal, external, and interspace pressures affect the qualification and selection of the double walled expansion joints. The calculation results shall confirm that deflections, forces, and moments are reasonable for the size and type required for the system’s demands as evaluated against the manufacturer’s design.

Clark, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000678106843)↗

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of GPS position and attitude determination for automated rendezvous and docking missions

The use of the Global Positioning System for position and attitude determination is evaluated for an automated rendezvous and docking mission. The typical mission scenario involves the chaser docking with the target for resupply or repair purposes, and is divided into three sections. During the homing phase, the chaser utilizes coarse acquisition pseudorange data to approach the target; guidance laws for this stage are investigated. In the second phase, differential carrier phase positioning is utilized. The chaser must maintain a quasiconstant distance from the target, in order to resolve the initial integer ambiguities. Once the ambiguities are determined, the terminal phase is entered, and the rendezvous is completed with continuous carrier phase tracking. Attitude knowledge is maintained in all phases through the use of the carrier phase observable. A Kalman filter is utilized to estimate all states from the noisy measurement data. The effects of selective availability and cycle slips are also investigated.

Diprinzio, Marc D.↗

Specification, Design, and Analysis of Advanced HUMS Architectures

During the two-year project period, we have worked on several aspects of domain-specific architectures for HUMS. In particular, we looked at using scenario-based approach for the design and designed a language for describing such architectures. The language is now being used in all aspects of our HUMS design. In particular, we have made contributions in the following areas. 1) We have employed scenarios in the development of HUMS in three main areas. They are: (a) To improve reusability by using scenarios as a library indexing tool and as a domain analysis tool; (b) To improve maintainability by recording design rationales from two perspectives - problem domain and solution domain; (c) To evaluate the software architecture. 2) We have defined a new architectural language called HADL or HUMS Architectural Definition Language. It is a customized version of xArch/xADL. It is based on XML and, hence, is easily portable from domain to domain, application to application, and machine to machine. Specifications written in HADL can be easily read and parsed using the currently available XML parsers. Thus, there is no need to develop a plethora of software to support HADL. 3) We have developed an automated design process that involves two main techniques: (a) Selection of solutions from a large space of designs; (b) Synthesis of designs. However, the automation process is not an absolute Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach though it uses a knowledge-based system that epitomizes a specific HUMS domain. The process uses a database of solutions as an aid to solve the problems rather than creating a new design in the literal sense. Since searching is adopted as the main technique, the challenges involved are: (a) To minimize the effort in searching the database where a very large number of possibilities exist; (b) To develop representations that could conveniently allow us to depict design knowledge evolved over many years; (c) To capture the required information that aid the automation process.

Mukkamala, Ravi↗

Analytical Needs in a Sample Receiving Facility: Input from the MSR Operation Definition Team

The return of scientifically selected samples from Mars would provide a rare opportunity forinvestigation with the full range of the latest technology available, but to take full advantageof this opportunity, it is important to plan ahead to ensure the pristine nature of the samplesupon arrival within the Earth environment until scientific investigations can begin.The NASA/ESA science community-driven MSR Science Planning Group – Phase 2 (MSPG2)delivered recommendations and guidance regarding curation (1) and science (2, 3) activities tobe performed on the samples under containment. High-level requirements for the infrastruc-ture were also developed by MSPG2 (4). In order to prepare infrastructure-targeted input forthe ESA and NASA facility studies planned in the 2022-2023 timeframe, the agency-led MSROperational Scenarios Definition Team (MOSDT) was assembled to conceptualize the sampleoperations that will inform future architecture teams. Emphasis was placed on the respon-sibility of MOSDT to use community-defined requirements and to represent the view of the international scientific community.All necessary and sufficient instruments and analytical needs described in MSPG2 were inte-grated in MOSDT main deliverable, the operational workflow (see Hays et al, this conference).In MSPG2, notional instruments were split between curation analytical needs, and objective-driven (time-sensitive and sterilization-sensitive) science analytical needs. In MOSDT, whilethe first phases of curation, “pre-Basic Characterization” and “Basic Characterization” wererather streamlined and separate from other analytical needs, “Preliminary Examination” and“Science” instruments were not always physically segregated. In addition to the necessary andsufficient instruments described by MSPG2, the MOSDT recommended additional supportequipment for sterilization, cleanliness and contamination monitoring.It was sometimes necessary for the MOSDT to rely on assumptions to integrate instruments inthe activity workflow. In general, the assumptions were very conservative to limit contaminationand cross-contamination risks. It is expected that future work to refine limits of contaminationwill enable optimization of instrumentation.The community was consulted during the course of the MOSDT work. This abstract’s aimis two-fold: on one hand, inform the scientific community and overall MSR stakeholders, tobring their attention on the analytical needs currently considered as necessary and sufficient;on the other hand, to solicit feedback from a larger community audience to optimize and refineanalytical needs during the next phases of MSR ground-segment preparation.Disclaimer: The decision to implement Mars Sample Return will not be finalized until NASA’scompletion of the program’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. This docu-ment is being made available for informational purposes only.[1] Tait et al. (2021) Preliminary planning for Mars Sample Return (MSR) curation activities ina Sample Receiving Facility (SRF). Astrobiology in press, doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0105. [2] Toscaet al. (2021) Time-sensitive aspects of Mars Sample Return (MSR) science. Astrobiologyin press, doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0115. [3] Velbel et al. (2021) Planning implications relatedto sterilization-sensitive science investigations associated with Mars Sample Return (MSR).Astrobiology in press, doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0113. [4] Carrier et al. (2021) Science and curationconsiderations for the design of a Mars Sample Return (MSR) Sample Receiving Facility (SRF).Astrobiology in press, doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0110.

Mars Sample Return↗

Comparative evaluation and selection of heat exchangers using multicriteria decision-making

Here, this study presents a well-structured method for comparing and selecting Heat Exchanger (HE) technologies for Integrated Energy Systems (IES). The decision to select a HE for a particular IES configuration can vary greatly depending not only on engineering requirements but also on customer’s specific demand. In other words, the HE selection for IES requires a multicriteria decision-making approach, taking into account diverse technical, economic, and safety aspects, as well as the relative priorities considered by energy users. This study employs a HE evaluation approach combining multicriteria decision-making techniques widely used in various industries: quality function deployment (QFD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) techniques. Of particular interest is the use of the proposed method to select a high-temperature HEs that couples advanced nuclear reactors and industrial processes. To build a practical basis for comparing HEs within the proposed framework, efforts were made to identify the various HEs requirements for IES purposes. In addition, leveraging the insights obtained from the literature review and the market survey of commercial HE suppliers, a knowledge base was built to facilitate the comparison of each requirement across various HE designs. Also, evaluation metrics were identified for HE requirements with robust rational to enhance the quality of decisions made throughout the proposed evaluation process. The evaluation procedure and knowledge base described in this study can provide a useful basis for those interested in screening the appropriate HE designs for various IES scenarios.

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)↗

New Determinations of the UV Luminosity Functions from z ~ 9 to 2 Show a Remarkable Consistency with Halo Growth and a Constant Star Formation Efficiency

Here we provide the most comprehensive determinations of the rest-frame UV luminosity function (LF) available to date with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) at z ~ 2–9. Essentially all of the noncluster extragalactic legacy fields are utilized, including the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, the Hubble Frontier Fields parallel fields, and all five CANDELS fields, for a total survey area of 1136 arcmin{sup 2}. Our determinations include galaxies at z ~ 2–3 leveraging the deep HDUV, UVUDF, and ERS WFC3/UVIS observations available over an ~150 arcmin{sup 2} area in the GOODS-North and GOODS-South regions. All together, our collective samples include >24,000 sources, >2.3× larger than previous selections with HST. We identify 5766, 6332, 7240, 3449, 1066, 601, 246, and 33 sources at z ~ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, respectively. Combining our results with an earlier z ~ 10 LF determination by Oesch et al., we quantify the evolution of the UV LF. Our results indicate that there is (1) a smooth flattening of the faint-end slope α from α ~ -2.4 at z ~ 10 to α ~ -1.5 at z ~ 2, (2) minimal evolution in the characteristic luminosity M* at z ≥ 2.5, and (3) a monotonic increase in the normalization log{sub 10}ϕ* from z ~ 10 to 2, which can be well described by a simple second-order polynomial, consistent with an “accelerated” evolution scenario. We find that each of these trends (from z ~ 10 to 2.5 at least) can be readily explained on the basis of the evolution of the halo mass function and a simple constant star formation efficiency model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Evaluating and Addressing Potential Hazards of Fuel Tanks Surviving Atmospheric Reentry

In order to ensure reentering spacecraft do not pose an undue risk to the Earth's population it is important to design satellites and rocket bodies with end of life considerations in mind. In addition to considering the possible consequences of deorbiting a vehicle, consideration must also be given to the possible risks associated with a vehicle failing to become operational or reach its intended orbit. Based on recovered space debris and numerous reentry survivability analyses, fuel tanks are of particular concern in both of these considerations. Most spacecraft utilize some type of fuel tank as part of their propulsion system. These fuel tanks are most often constructed using stainless steel or titanium and are filled with potentially hazardous substances such as hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide. For a vehicle which has reached its scheduled end of mission the contents of the tanks are typically depleted. In this scenario the use of stainless steel and titanium results in the tanks posing a risk to people and property do to the high melting point and large heat of ablation of these materials leading to likely survival of the tank during reentry. If a large portion of the fuel is not depleted prior to reentry, there is the added risk of hazardous substance being released when the tank impact the ground. This paper presents a discussion of proactive methods which have been utilized by NASA satellite projects to address the risks associated with fuel tanks reentering the atmosphere. In particular it will address the design of a demiseable fuel tank as well as the evaluation of off the shelf designs which are selected to burst during reentry.

Kelley, Robert L.↗

Examination of Semi-Analytical Solution Methods in the Coarse Operator of Parareal Algorithm for Power System Simulation

With continuing advances in high-performance parallel computing platforms, parallel algorithms have become powerful tools for development of faster than real-time power system dynamic simulations. In particular, it has been demonstrated in recent years that parallel-in-time (Parareal) algorithms have the potential to achieve such an ambitious goal. Here, the selection of a fast and reasonably accurate coarse operator of the Parareal algorithm is crucial for its effective utilization and performance. This paper examines semi-analytical solution (SAS) methods as the coarse operators of the Parareal algorithm and explores performance of the SAS methods to the standard numerical time integration methods. Two promising time-power series-based SAS methods were considered; Adomian decomposition method and Homotopy analysis method with a windowing approach for improving the convergence. Numerical performance case studies on 10-generator 39-bus system and 327-generator 2383-bus system were performed for these coarse operators over different disturbances, evaluating the number of Parareal iterations, computational time, and stability of convergence. All the coarse operators tested with different scenarios have converged to the same corresponding true solution (if they are convergent) and the SAS methods provide comparable computational speed, while having more stable convergence to the true solution in many cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Trade Study of System Level Ranked Radiation Protection Concepts for Deep Space Exploration

A strategic focus area for NASA is to pursue the development of technologies which support exploration in space beyond the current inhabited region of low earth orbit. An unresolved issue for crewed deep space exploration involves limiting crew radiation exposure to below acceptable levels, considering both solar particle events and galactic cosmic ray contributions to dosage. Galactic cosmic ray mitigation is not addressed in this paper, but by addressing credible, easily implemented, and mass efficient solutions for the possibility of solar particle events, additional margin is provided that can be used for cosmic ray dose accumulation. As a result, NASA s Advanced Engineering Systems project office initiated this Radiation Storm Shelter design activity. This paper reports on the first year results of an expected 3 year Storm Shelter study effort which will mature concepts and operational scenarios that protect exploration astronauts from solar particle radiation events. Large trade space definition, candidate concept ranking, and a planned demonstration comprised the majority of FY12 activities. A system key performance parameter is minimization of the required increase in mass needed to provide a safe environment. Total system mass along with operational assessments and other defined protection system metrics provide the guiding metrics to proceed with concept developments. After a downselect to four primary methods, the concepts were analyzed for dosage severity and the amount of shielding mass necessary to bring dosage to acceptable values. Besides analytical assessments, subscale models of several concepts and one full scale concept demonstrator were created. FY12 work terminated with a plan to demonstrate test articles of two selected approaches. The process of arriving at these selections and their current envisioned implementation are presented in this paper.

Cerro, Jeffrey A↗

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A serach for 'failed clusters' of galaxies

We describe a search for a new type of object - large clouds of hot gas with no visible galaxies - which we call failed clusters of galaxies. We calculate the expected X-ray luminosity, temperature, and angular diameter of such objects as a function of total cloud mass and convert the results to expected X-ray fluxes from failed clusters at different redshifts. Using the Einstein Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) database, we establish a strategy to search for candidate failed clusters. From this initial screening of 1435 IPC fields, 17 candidates are selected for more detailed analysis, which indicates that 10 of these are very probably extended X-ray sources. Optical follow-up on the 10 prime candidates finds eight clusters of galaxies (including six reproted for the first time in this paper), one stellar identification, and one without an obvious optical counterpart (the candidate with the weakest evidence for X-ray extent). Investigation of several candidates with less evidence for X-ray extent yields two additional new clusters of galaxies. A conservative comparison of our results with the Einstein Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey demonstrates that failed clusters are a relatively unimportant contributor to the mass density of the universe. Our inability to find failed clusters is consistent with the hierarchical clustering scenario for the formation of galaxies and clusters.

Tucker, W. H.↗

Pilot Study of Medications Exposed to Vacuum

Background Few studies have been conducted regarding the effects of vacuum on medications and their packaging. While relevant on the International Space Station, understanding these effects becomes even more critical as future NASA missions venture farther away from Earth. Vehicles supporting the Artemis missions will have dedicated, vehicle-specific medical kits as well as crew medical accessory kits. Although most of the kits will be stored in a pressurized, climate-controlled volume, there are specific scenarios in which they may become exposed to vacuum. These include the vehicle being brought to vacuum to enable clearance of atmospheric contaminants, and on Human Landing System (HLS), in the airlock (in which kits may be stored) during extravehicular activities. Overview The Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) in collaboration with the Department of Defense is conducting a pilot study to assess the effects of vacuum on the medications and their packaging to be used in exploration missions. Phase A of this study will focus on manufacturer’s package integrity and Phase B on identifying chemical changes through active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) testing of the medications at 0, 4.5 and 9 months post exposure. Two exposure durations, 1 hour and 8 hours were selected to represent the expected time at vacuum for an Orion contaminated atmosphere vent/repress and the time at vacuum for a lunar surface EVA. The medications for this study were identified based on those currently being considered for future Artemis missions and represent the types of pharmaceuticals and formulations that are likely to comprise an exploration formulary. Discussion The results from this pilot study will aid in decision making related to the development of medical kits, medication packaging and stowage for long duration lunar and Mars missions, and inform the direction of future medication in vacuum studies.

Vacuum↗

Constraining radio mode feedback in galaxy clusters with the cluster radio AGNs properties to z ∼ 1

ABSTRACT We study the properties of the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) 843 MHz radio active galactic nuclei (AGNs) population in galaxy clusters from two large catalogues created using the Dark Energy Survey (DES): ∼11 800 optically selected RM-Y3 and ∼1000 X-ray selected MARD-Y3 clusters. We show that cluster radio loud AGNs are highly concentrated around cluster centres to $z$ ∼ 1. We measure the halo occupation number for cluster radio AGNs above a threshold luminosity, finding that the number of radio AGNs per cluster increases with cluster halo mass as N ∝ M1.2 ± 0.1 (N ∝ M0.68 ± 0.34) for the RM-Y3 (MARD-Y3) sample. Together, these results indicate that radio mode feedback is favoured in more massive galaxy clusters. Using optical counterparts for these sources, we demonstrate weak redshift evolution in the host broad-band colours and the radio luminosity at fixed host galaxy stellar mass. We use the redshift evolution in radio luminosity to break the degeneracy between density and luminosity evolution scenarios in the redshift trend of the radio AGNs luminosity function (LF). The LF exhibits a redshift trend of the form (1 + $z$)γ in density and luminosity, respectively, of γD = 3.0 ± 0.4 and γP = 0.21 ± 0.15 in the RM-Y3 sample, and γD = 2.6 ± 0.7 and γP = 0.31 ± 0.15 in MARD-Y3. We discuss the physical drivers of radio mode feedback in cluster AGNs, and we use the cluster radio galaxy LF to estimate the average radio-mode feedback energy as a function of cluster mass and redshift and compare it to the core (<0.1R500) X-ray radiative losses for clusters at $z$ < 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inadequacies of conventional traffic forecasting in determining the demand for new aircraft

Decisions concerning the selection of new aircraft must take into account the expected volume and character of air traffic in particular future markets. An investigation is, therefore, conducted regarding the currently available approaches for obtaining estimates of air traffic growth. Essentially, air traffic forecasting consists in studying past air traffic growth patterns, attempting to determine what may cause them to change, relating them where possible to such determinants or to other series whose changes they follow in some predictable fashion. Attention is given to the short-shelf life of conventional air traffic forecasts, the observation that most forecasts reflect recent experience, factors which may partially offset the inadequacies of air traffic forecasting technology, the limitations of conventional forecasting, and research useful in identifying a range of future scenarios.

Gorham, J. E.↗