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At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Developing Practical Models of Complex Salts for Molten Salt Reactors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) utilize salts as coolant or as the fuel and coolant together with fissile isotopes dissolved in the salt. It is necessary to therefore understand the behavior of the salts to effectively design, operate, and regulate such reactors, and thus there is a need for thermodynamic models for the salt systems. Molten salts, however, are difficult to represent as they exhibit short-range order that is dependent on both composition and temperature. A widely useful approach is the modified quasichemical model in the quadruplet approximation that provides for consideration of first- and second-nearest-neighbor coordination and interactions. Its use in the CALPHAD approach to system modeling requires fitting parameters using standard thermodynamic data such as phase equilibria, heat capacity, and others. A shortcoming of the model is its inability to directly vary coordination numbers with composition or temperature. Another issue is the difficulty in fitting model parameters using regression methods without already having very good initial values. The proposed paper will discuss these issues and note some practical methods for the effective generation of useful models.

Besmann, Theodore M. (ORCID:0000000155980550)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Corn Production in the U.S. Midwest under Future Climate Scenarios using machine learning approach

Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanism models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated, and time-consuming. Efficient predictions of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production are lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate current and future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in 12 U.S. Midwest at county scale under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s climate scenarios (RCP2.6. 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for years 2009-2100. Results show that future life-cycle GW, EU and AD impacts of corn production will increase under all four scenarios, with the worst environmental impacts shown under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Significant spatial variation were estimated to be 3.6, 29.9 and 1.8-folds under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 6.6, 152.9 and 1.6-folds under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of considering county-level life-cycle environmental impacts and the influences of climate change in future years to aid in developing potential adaptation and mitigation programs and policies.

Machine learning, climate change, projections, env↗
NASA NTRS2000

Landsat TM as a Tool for Locating Habitat for Cerulean Warblers

I believe that I made significant strides in three areas between fall of 1997 and fall of 2000 when I concluded my participation in the JOVE program. First, I acquired skill in digital remote sensing. This was significant to me because it had been 20 years since I had done any work utilizing remote sensing. I used my new skills in two classroom settings (forest ecology and GIS). In addition, I will participate as an instructor of digital remote sensing in a workshop for secondary educators this coming spring. Second, I received funding from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission and the U.S. Forest Service to supplement JOVE funds. Third, and most importantly, a students and I developed a technique using LandSAT TM for identifying habitat for cerulean warblers. We developed a habitat model using logistic regression to discriminate between pixels that had a high probability of representing good cerulean warbler habitat and pixels that had a low probability of representing cerulean warbler habitat. Using this model, we located five significant populations of cerulean warblers in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. These populations were unknown before the initiation of this research and further represent a significant proportion of the known cerulean warblers in Arkansas. Preliminary findings were presented at the Ornithological Societies of America meeting in August of 1999. I also presented findings at the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission Research Symposium held in June of 2000. Finally, one paper is in press: James, D. A., C.J. Kellner, J. Self, and J. Davis., 'Breeding season distribution of cerulean warblers in Arkansas in the 1990's'. In addition, one paper is under construction: 'Population fluctuation and habitat selection by cerulean warblers in upland forests of Arkansas,' and one paper is under consideration: 'LandSAT TM and Logistic regression for identification of cerulean warbler habitat in upland forests of Arkansas.'

Kellner, Chris↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Precipitation Parameters on the Specific Surface Area of PuO 2

Controlling the properties of PuO 2 through processing is of vital importance to environmental transport and fate, production of nuclear fuels, nuclear forensic analyses, stockpile stewardship, and storage of nuclear wastes applications. A number of processing conditions have been identified to control final product properties, including specific surface area (SSA), residual carbon content, adsorption of volatile species, morphology, and particle size. In this paper, a novel approach is developed for the prediction of PuO 2 SSA via the synthetic route of Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation followed by calcination. The proposed model utilizes multivariate regression methodology and leave one out formalism to link Savannah River Site (SRS) precipitation and calcination production data to the SSA of the final product. A comparison among the models provides insight into the accuracy and ability to identify variations amongst the processing data. Additionally, the models may also be used to fit new data outside of the parameters explored in a production facility. Finally, the trained model was compared to a similarly trained conventional model form to illustrate the influence of precipitation parameters on the prediction of the final SSA. The models presented here attempt to provide new methods for more accurate prediction of the PuO 2 product properties in a production scale environment for key environmental and nuclear applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
NASA NTRS1975

Flood hazard studies in Central Texas using orbital and suborbital remote sensing machinery

Central Texas is subject to infrequent, unusually intense rainstorms which cause extremely rapid runoff from drainage basins developed on the deeply dissected limestone and marl bedrock of the Edwards Plateau. One approach to flood hazard evaluation in this area is a parametric model relating flood hydrograph characteristics to quantitative geomorphic properties of the drainage basins. The preliminary model uses multiple regression techniques to predict potential peak flood discharge from basin magnitude, drainage density, and ruggedness number. After mapping small catchment networks from remote sensing imagery, input data for the model are generated by network digitization and analysis by a computer assisted routine of watershed analysis. The study evaluated the network resolution capabilities of the following data formats: (1) large-scale (1:24,000) topographic maps, employing Strahler's "method of v's," (2) standard low altitude black and white aerial photography (1:13,000 and 1:20,000 scales), (3) NASA - generated aerial infrared photography at scales ranging from 1:48,000 to 1:123,000, and (4) Skylab Earth Resources Experiment Package S-190A and S-190B sensors (1:750,000 and 1:500,000 respectively).

Baker, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Low-Cost Sensor Performance Intercomparison, Correction Factor Development, and 2+ Years of Ambient PM2.5 Monitoring in Accra, Ghana

Particulate matter air pollution is a leading cause of global mortality, particularly in Asia and Africa. Addressing the high and wide-ranging air pollution levels requires ambient monitoring, but many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain scarcely monitored. To address these data gaps, recent studies have utilized low-cost sensors. These sensors have varied performance, and little literature exists about sensor intercomparison in Africa. By colocating 2 QuantAQ Modulair-PM, 2 PurpleAir PA-II SD, and 16 Clarity Node-S Generation II monitors with a reference-grade Teledyne monitor in Accra, Ghana, we present the first intercomparisons of different brands of low-cost sensors in Africa, demonstrating that each type of low-cost sensor PM2.5 is strongly correlated with reference PM2.5, but biased high for ambient mixture of sources found in Accra. When compared to a reference monitor, the QuantAQ Modulair-PM has the lowest mean absolute error at 3.04 μg/m3, followed by PurpleAir PA-II (4.54 μg/m3) and Clarity Node-S (13.68 μg/m3). We also compare the usage of 4 statistical or machine learning models (Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gaussian Mixture Regression, and XGBoost) to correct low-cost sensors data, and find that XGBoost performs the best in testing (R2: 0.97, 0.94, 0.96; mean absolute error: 0.56, 0.80, and 0.68 μg/m3 for PurpleAir PA-II, Clarity Node-S, and Modulair-PM, respectively), but tree-based models do not perform well when correcting data outside the range of the colocation training. Therefore, we used Gaussian Mixture Regression to correct data from the network of 17 Clarity Node-S monitors deployed around Accra, Ghana, from 2018 to 2021. We find that the network daily average PM2.5 concentration in Accra is 23.4 μg/m3, which is 1.6 times the World Health Organization Daily PM2.5 guideline of 15 μg/m3. While this level is lower than those seen in some larger African cities (such as Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo), mitigation strategies should be developed soon to prevent further impairment to air quality as Accra, and Ghana as a whole, rapidly grow.

Humidity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Arsenic Contamination Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning

Arsenic, a potent carcinogen and neurotoxin, affects over 200 million people globally. Current detection methods are laborious, expensive, and unscalable, being difficult to implement in developing regions and during crises such as COVID-19. This study attempts to determine if a relationship exists between soil’s hyperspectral data and arsenic concentration using NASA’s Hyperion satellite. It is the first arsenic study to use satellite-based hyperspectral data and apply a classification approach. Four regression machine learning models are tested to determine this correlation in soil with bare land cover. Raw data are converted to reflectance, problematic atmospheric influences are removed, characteristic wavelengths are selected, and four noise reduction algorithms are tested. The combination of data augmentation, Genetic Algorithm, Second Derivative Transformation, and Random Forest regression (R 2 =0.840 and normalized root mean squared error (re-scaled to [0,1]) = 0.122) shows strong correlation, performing better than past models despite using noisier satellite data (versus lab-processed samples). Three binary classification machine learning models are then applied to identify high-risk shrub-covered regions in ten U.S. states, achieving strong accuracy (=0.693) and F1-score (=0.728). Overall, these results suggest that such a methodology is practical and can provide a sustainable alternative to arsenic contamination detection.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate parameterization of the kinetic energy functional

The absence of a reliable formulation of kinetic energy density functional has hindered the development of orbital free density functional theory. Using the data-aided learning paradigm, we propose a simple prescription to accurately model the kinetic energy density of any system. Our method relies on a dictionary of functional forms for local and nonlocal contributions which have been proposed in the literature and the appropriate coefficients are calculated via a linear regression framework. To model the nonlocal contributions, we explore two new nonlocal functionals - a functional that captures fluctuations in electronic density and a functional that incorporates gradient information. Since, the analytical functional forms of the kernels present in these nonlocal terms are not known from theory, we propose a basis function expansion to model these seemingly difficult nonlocal quantities. This allows us to easily reconstruct kernels for any system using only a few structures. The proposed method is able to learn kinetic energy densities and total kinetic energies of molecular and periodic systems, such as H 2 , LiH, LiF and a one-dimensional chain of 8 hydrogens using data from Kohn-Sham density functional theory calculations for only a few structures. For the ease of reproduction, codes used to generate the models are provided in the supporting materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven analysis of neutron diffraction line profiles: application to plastically deformed Ta

Abstract Non-destructive evaluation of plastically deformed metals, particularly diffraction line profile analysis (DLPA), is valuable both to estimate dislocation densities and arrangements and to validate microstructure-aware constitutive models. To date, the interpretation of whole line diffraction profiles relies on the use of semi-analytical models such as the extended convolutional multiple whole profile (eCMWP) method. This study introduces and validates two data-driven DLPA models to extract dislocation densities from experimentally gathered whole line diffraction profiles. Using two distinct virtual diffraction models accounting for both strain and instrument induced broadening, a database of virtual diffraction whole line profiles of Ta single crystals is generated using discrete dislocation dynamics. The databases are mined to create Gaussian process regression-based surrogate models, allowing dislocation densities to be extracted from experimental profiles. The method is validated against 11 experimentally gathered whole line diffraction profiles from plastically deformed Ta polycrystals. The newly proposed model predicts dislocation densities consistent with estimates from eCMWP. Advantageously, this data driven LPA model can distinguish broadening originating from the instrument and from the dislocation content even at low dislocation densities. Finally, the data-driven model is used to explore the effect of heterogeneous dislocation densities in microstructures containing grains, which may lead to more accurate data-driven predictions of dislocation density in plastically deformed polycrystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessment of Response Surface Models using Independent Confirmation Point Analysis

This paper highlights various advantages that confirmation-point residuals have over conventional model design-point residuals in assessing the adequacy of a response surface model fitted by regression techniques to a sample of experimental data. Particular advantages are highlighted for the case of design matrices that may be ill-conditioned for a given sample of data. The impact of both aleatory and epistemological uncertainty in response model adequacy assessments is considered.

DeLoach, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1993

Streak camera based SLR receiver for two color atmospheric measurements

To realize accurate two-color differential measurements, an image digitizing system with variable spatial resolution was designed, built, and integrated to a photon-counting picosecond streak camera, yielding a temporal scan resolution better than 300 femtosecond/pixel. The streak camera is configured to operate with 3 spatial channels; two of these support green (532 nm) and uv (355 nm) while the third accommodates reference pulses (764 nm) for real-time calibration. Critical parameters affecting differential timing accuracy such as pulse width and shape, number of received photons, streak camera/imaging system nonlinearities, dynamic range, and noise characteristics were investigated to optimize the system for accurate differential delay measurements. The streak camera output image consists of three image fields, each field is 1024 pixels along the time axis and 16 pixels across the spatial axis. Each of the image fields may be independently positioned across the spatial axis. Two of the image fields are used for the two wavelengths used in the experiment; the third window measures the temporal separation of a pair of diode laser pulses which verify the streak camera sweep speed for each data frame. The sum of the 16 pixel intensities across each of the 1024 temporal positions for the three data windows is used to extract the three waveforms. The waveform data is processed using an iterative three-point running average filter (10 to 30 iterations are used) to remove high-frequency structure. The pulse pair separations are determined using the half-max and centroid type analysis. Rigorous experimental verification has demonstrated that this simplified process provides the best measurement accuracy. To calibrate the receiver system sweep, two laser pulses with precisely known temporal separation are scanned along the full length of the sweep axis. The experimental measurements are then modeled using polynomial regression to obtain a best fit to the data. Data aggregation using normal point approach has provided accurate data fitting techniques and is found to be much more convenient than using the full rate single shot data. The systematic errors from this model have been found to be less than 3 ps for normal points.

Varghese, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Predictive Model for Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area Using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Hydrological and Meteorological Parameters and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Lake Chad is an endorheic lake in the Sahel region of Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. The lake, which is well known for its dramatic decrease in surface area during the 1970s and 1980s, experiences an annual flood resulting in a maximum total surface water area generally during February or March, though sometimes earlier or later. People along the shores of Lake Chad make their living fishing, farming, and raising livestock and have a vested interest in knowing when and how extensive the annual flooding will be, particularly those practicing recession farming in which the fertile ground of previously flooded area is used for planting crops. In this study, the authors investigate the relationship between lake and basin parameters, including rainfall, basin evapotranspiration, lake evapotranspiration, lake elevation, total surface water area, and the previous year’s total surface water area, and develop equations for each dry season month (except November) linking total surface water area to the other parameters. The resulting equations allow the user to estimate the December average monthly total surface water area of the lake in late November, and to make the estimates for January to May in early December. Based on the results of a Leave One Out Cross Validation analysis, the equations for lake area are estimated to have an average absolute error ranging from 5.3 percent (for February estimates) to 7.6 percent (for May estimates).

Lake Chad↗