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Description of the mean behaviour of ionospheric plasma temperatures

A status report on the empirical modeling of ionospheric electron and ion temperatures is given with special emphasis on the models used in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). Electron temperature models have now reached a state where reliable prediction of the mean altitudinal, latitudinal and diurnal variations is possible. These models are largely based on satellite measurements, but comparisons with incoherent scatter radar measurements have shown excellent agreement. Variations with season and magnetic and solar activity seem to be small and are not yet included consistently in these models. Similar to the electron temperature, the ion temperature shows the largest variations with altitude, latitude and local time. But due to the larger mass, these variations are smoother and more steady in the case of the ions and therefore easier to model. Nevertheless, very few ion temperature models exist. The IRI model takes advantage of the observed concurrence of the ion temperature with the neutral temperature at low altitudes and with the electron temperature at high altitudes.

Bilitza, Dieter↗

An adaptive identification and control scheme for large space structures

A unified identification and control scheme capable of achieving space at form performance objectives under nominal or failure conditions is described. Preliminary results are also presented, showing that the methodology offers much promise for effective robust control of large space structures. The control method is a multivariable, adaptive, output predictive controller called Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC uses a state space model and input reference trajectories of set or tracking points to adaptively generate optimum commands. For a fixed model, MPC processes commands with great efficiency, and is also highly robust. A key feature of MPC is its ability to control either nonminimum phase or open loop unstable systems. As an output controller, MPC does not explicitly require full state feedback, as do most multivariable (e.g., Linear Quadratic) methods. Its features are very useful in LSS operations, as they allow non-collocated actuators and sensors. The identification scheme is based on canonical variate analysis (CVA) of input and output data. The CVA technique is particularly suited for the measurement and identification of structural dynamic processes - that is, unsteady transient or dynamically interacting processes such as between aerodynamics and structural deformation - from short, noisy data. CVA is structured so that the identification can be done in real or near real time, using computationally stable algorithms. Modeling LSS dynamics in 1-g laboratories has always been a major impediment not only to understanding their behavior in orbit, but also to controlling it. In cases where the theoretical model is not confirmed, current methods provide few clues concerning additional dynamical relationships that are not included in the theoretical models. CVA needs no a priori model data, or structure; all statistically significant dynamical states are determined using natural, entropy-based methods. Heretofore, a major limitation in applying adaptive controllers to LSS problems has been the requirement for accurate models. We feel that MPC coupled with the CVA identification scheme will resolve this limitation. The results are based on research performed under an SBIR grant, administered by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

Carroll, J. V.↗

TERRA Battery Thermal Control Anomaly - Simulation and Corrective Actions

The TERRA spacecraft was launched in December 1999 from Vandenberg Air Force Base, becoming the flagship of NASA's Earth Observing System program to gather data on how the planet's processes create climate. Originally planned as a 5 year mission, it still provides valuable science data after nearly 10 years on orbit. On October 13th, 2009 at 16:23z following a routine inclination maneuver, TERRA experienced a battery cell failure and a simultaneous failure of several battery heater control circuits used to maintain cell temperatures and gradients within the battery. With several cells nearing the minimum survival temperature, preventing the electrolyte from freezing was the first priority. After several reset attempts and power cycling of the control electronics failed to reestablish control authority on the primary side of the controller, it was switched to the redundant side, but anomalous performance again prevented full heater control of the battery cells. As the investigation into the cause of the anomaly and corrective action continued, a battery thermal model was developed to be used in determining the control ability remaining and to simulate and assess corrective actions. Although no thermal model or detailed reference data of the battery was available, sufficient information was found to allow a simplified model to be constructed, correlated against pre-anomaly telemetry, and used to simulate the thermal behavior at several points after the anomaly. It was then used to simulate subsequent corrective actions to assess their impact on cell temperatures. This paper describes the rapid development of this thermal model, including correlation to flight data before and after the anomaly., along with a comparative assessment of the analysis results used to interpret the telemetry to determine the extent of damage to the thermal control hardware, with near-term corrective actions and long-term operations plan to overcome the anomaly.

Grob, Eric W.↗

Using Open Standards and NASA Open Source Simulation Tools to Model Artemis Base Camp Mission Timelines

The United States’ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has announced that the Artemis Program will return humans to the Moon, establishing a persistent presence with the Artemis Base Camp (ABC), and extend human exploration to Mars. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center is using internationally developed simulation interoperability standards and NASA open source simulation tools to support Artemis concept, analysis, designs, development, training, and ultimately operations. The NExSyS team has been tasked to support early ABC architecture and mission analysis using mission time lines developed by the crew operations mission planning team. The NExSyS team is developing a distributed simulation framework with initial Artemis element implementations to model the ABC mission timelines using the international simulation interoperability standard High Level Architecture (HLA), the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization’s Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM), the NASA open source Trick Simulation Environment, and another NASA open source interface package called TrickHLA. The ABC architecture is composed of a number of key surface elements and resources. Some examples of modeled elements (also known as entities) are landers, habitats, rovers, logistics carriers, and astronauts. Some examples of modeled transferable and consumable resources are power, water, oxygen, nitrogen, scientific samples, and food. These entities and resources are modeled in a collection of individual simulations called Federates. A coordinated collection of interoperable federates is called a Federation and when these federates are tied together in a coordinated simulation run, it is referred to as a Federation Execution. The federates communicate through HLA using data exchange formats defined by a collection of machine readable files called Federation Object Models (FOMs). These FOM files are based on extensions to the SpaceFOM. This enables the instantiation and sharing of objects and interactions between federates in the federation. These provide for entity and resource tracking, object transfer, and data collection. Federate interactions are used to trigger events and notify federates of entity or resource transfers. For the initial implementation, the constituent federates are Trick-based simulations that use TrickHLA to provide the required HLA-base interoperability. These Trick-based simulations provide the required modeling for the individual Artemis elements along with the associated element resources. These federates provide a means to explore traverses between surface elements and exploration sites as scheduled in a mission timeline and explore the affects traverse times have on the overall mission timeline. The mission time lines are modeled using a Trick input file event handling capabilities. Each timeline operation is handled as individual simulation events, and triggered based on previous event status, time of operation, and simulated task completions. In addition, the ABC Federation can be used to perform Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo tool can vary the inputs, timings, and malfunctions to show how various contingencies in the mission can affect the mission timeline.

Keaton Craig Dodd↗

Evolution of eddy viscosity in the wake of a wind turbine

The eddy viscosity hypothesis is a popular method in wind turbine wake modeling for estimating turbulent Reynolds stresses. We document the downstream evolution of eddy viscosity in the wake of a wind turbine from experimental and large-eddy-simulation data. Wake eddy viscosity is isolated from its surroundings by subtracting the inflow profile, and the driving forces are identified in each wake region. Eddy viscosity varies in response to changes in turbine geometry and nacelle misalignment with larger turbines generating stronger velocity gradients and shear stresses. We propose a model for eddy viscosity based on a Rayleigh distribution. Model parameters are obtained from scaling the eddy viscosity hypothesis and demonstrate satisfactory agreement with the reference data. The model is implemented in the curled wake formulation in the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) framework and assessed through comparisons with the previous formulation. Our approach produced more accurate flow field estimates with lower total error for the majority of cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Interactive Spectral Analysis Tool for Chemical Identification and Quantification of Gas-Phase Species in Complex Spectra

A spectral analysis tool has been developed to interactively identify and quantify individual gas-phase species from complex infrared absorbance spectra obtained from laboratory or field data. The SpecQuant program has an intuitive graphical interface that accommodates both reference and experimental data with varying resolution and instrumental lineshape, as well as algorithms to readily align the wavenumber axis of a sample spectrum with the raster of a reference spectrum. Using a classical least squares model in conjunction with reference spectra such as those from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) gas-phase infrared database or simulated spectra derived from the HITRAN line-by-line database, the mixing ratio of each identified species is determined along with its associated estimation error. After correcting the wavelength and intensity of the field data, SpecQuant displays the calculated mixing ratio versus the experimental data for each analyte along with the residual spectrum with any or all analyte fits subtracted for visual inspection of the fit and residuals. The software performance for multianalyte quantification was demonstrated using moderate resolution (0.5 cm –1 ) infrared spectra that were collected during the time-resolved infrared photolysis of methyl iodide.

Thompson, Christopher J.↗

Model Calibration Efforts for the International Space Station's Solar Array Mast

The International Space Station (ISS) relies on sixteen solar-voltaic blankets to provide electrical power to the station. Each pair of blankets is supported by a deployable boom called the Folding Articulated Square Truss Mast (FAST Mast). At certain ISS attitudes, the solar arrays can be positioned in such a way that shadowing of either one or three longerons causes an unexpected asymmetric thermal loading that if unchecked can exceed the operational stability limits of the mast. Work in this paper documents part of an independent NASA Engineering and Safety Center effort to assess the existing operational limits. Because of the complexity of the system, the problem is being worked using a building-block progression from components (longerons), to units (single or multiple bays), to assembly (full mast). The paper presents results from efforts to calibrate the longeron components. The work includes experimental testing of two types of longerons (straight and tapered), development of Finite Element (FE) models, development of parameter uncertainty models, and the establishment of a calibration and validation process to demonstrate adequacy of the models. Models in the context of this paper refer to both FE model and probabilistic parameter models. Results from model calibration of the straight longerons show that the model is capable of predicting the mean load, axial strain, and bending strain. For validation, parameter values obtained from calibration of straight longerons are used to validate experimental results for the tapered longerons.

Elliott, Kenny B.↗

1st AIAA CFD Transition Modeling and Prediction Workshop: OVERFLOW Results for the SST and Langtry-Menter Models

This paper reports the results of CFD simulations of the test cases for the AIAA 1stCFDTransition Modeling and Prediction Workshop held at the AIAA Scitech Forum on 21-22January, 2021 using the NASA solver OVERFLOW. The Langtry-Menter transition model was used in combination with the Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model. The testcases include the ERCOFTAC zero-pressure-gradient flat plate cases T3A and T3B with by-pass transition, the natural laminar flow NLF(1)-0416 airfoil, the DLR inclined 6:1 prolate spheroid, and the NASA Common Research Model with wing design optimized for natural laminar flow transition (CRM-NLF). OVERFLOW load and transition predictions obtained using best practices are compared with experiments and prior simulations. Additional results are provided for modified turbulence model boundary specifications to improve alignment to reference data and assess model sensitivity.

ARMD↗

Species Transport Framework Development in SAM for System-Level Tritium Source Term Analysis

The SAM code is under development as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non–light water reactor safety analyses, with recent efforts to add capabilities to evaluate radiological source term risks in these novel reactor concepts. By leveraging the established system-level multiphysics thermal-hydraulic models in SAM, a framework for tightly coupled species transport modeling has been integrated into the code for engineering-scale source term evaluation. This species transport framework was first applied to the simulation of tritium, which is a well-known source term in conventional light water reactors. Tritium poses a unique risk in salt-cooled reactors, especially those with lithium-bearing salts such as the fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) concept, as tritium is generated in the salt coolant in significant quantities due to neutron interactions. A compounding factor is the increased mobility of tritium at high temperatures, which is able to permeate through metals while also potentially being retained in graphite pebbles and structures. Engineering-scale models for the tritium transport pathways in a FHR have been developed using the new species transport framework in SAM. The capabilities are assessed through analytical verification problems and validated with data from a graphite retention experiment. In conclusion, the system-level model is demonstrated by performing an initial estimate of baseline tritium generation and flows in a generic reference SAM FHR model, setting a foundation for future studies of source term transient analysis with the potential for further multiscale and multiphysics integration.

SAM↗

Evaluation of Icing Scaling on Swept NACA 0012 Airfoil Models

Icing scaling tests in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) were performed on swept wing models using existing recommended scaling methods that were originally developed for straight wing. Some needed modifications on the stagnation-point local collection efficiency (i.e., beta(sub 0) calculation and the corresponding convective heat transfer coefficient for swept NACA 0012 airfoil models have been studied and reported in 2009, and the correlations will be used in the current study. The reference tests used a 91.4-cm chord, 152.4-cm span, adjustable sweep airfoil model of NACA 0012 profile at velocities of 100 and 150 knot and MVD of 44 and 93 mm. Scale-to-reference model size ratio was 1:2.4. All tests were conducted at 0deg angle of attack (AoA) and 45deg sweep angle. Ice shape comparison results were presented for stagnation-point freezing fractions in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. Preliminary results showed that good scaling was achieved for the conditions test by using the modified scaling methods developed for swept wing icing.

Tsao, Jen-Ching↗

Methods for Scaling Icing Test Conditions

This report presents the results of tests at NASA Lewis to evaluate several methods to establish suitable alternative test conditions when the test facility limits the model size or operating conditions. The first method was proposed by Olsen. It can be applied when full-size models are tested and all the desired test conditions except liquid-water content can be obtained in the facility. The other two methods discussed are: a modification of the French scaling law and the AEDC scaling method. Icing tests were made with cylinders at both reference and scaled conditions representing mixed and glaze ice in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel. Reference and scale ice shapes were compared to evaluate each method. The Olsen method was tested with liquid-water content varying from 1.3 to .8 g/m(exp3). Over this range, ice shapes produced using the Olsen method were unchanged. The modified French and AEDC methods produced scaled ice shapes which approximated the reference shapes when model size was reduced to half the reference size for the glaze-ice cases tested.

Anderson, David N.↗

Investigating the Simulink Auto-Coding Process

Model based program design is the most clear and direct way to develop algorithms and programs for interfacing with hardware. While coding "by hand" results in a more tailored product, the ever-growing size and complexity of modern-day applications can cause the project work load to quickly become unreasonable for one programmer. This has generally been addressed by splitting the product into separate modules to allow multiple developers to work in parallel on the same project, however this introduces new potentials for errors in the process. The fluidity, reliability and robustness of the code relies on the abilities of the programmers to communicate their methods to one another; furthermore, multiple programmers invites multiple potentially differing coding styles into the same product, which can cause a loss of readability or even module incompatibility. Fortunately, Mathworks has implemented an auto-coding feature that allows programmers to design their algorithms through the use of models and diagrams in the graphical programming environment Simulink, allowing the designer to visually determine what the hardware is to do. From here, the auto-coding feature handles converting the project into another programming language. This type of approach allows the designer to clearly see how the software will be directing the hardware without the need to try and interpret large amounts of code. In addition, it speeds up the programming process, minimizing the amount of man-hours spent on a single project, thus reducing the chance of human error as well as project turnover time. One such project that has benefited from the auto-coding procedure is Ramses, a portion of the GNC flight software on-board Orion that has been implemented primarily in Simulink. Currently, however, auto-coding Ramses into C++ requires 5 hours of code generation time. This causes issues if the tool ever needs to be debugged, as this code generation will need to occur with each edit to any part of the program; additionally, this is lost time that could be spent testing and analyzing the code. This is one of the more prominent issues with the auto-coding process, and while much information is available with regard to optimizing Simulink designs to produce efficient and reliable C++ code, not much research has been made public on how to reduce the code generation time. It is of interest to develop some insight as to what causes code generation times to be so significant, and determine if there are architecture guidelines or a desirable auto-coding configuration set to assist in streamlining this step of the design process for particular applications. To address the issue at hand, the Simulink coder was studied at a foundational level. For each different component type made available by the software, the features, auto-code generation time, and the format of the generated code were analyzed and documented. Tools were developed and documented to expedite these studies, particularly in the area of automating sequential builds to ensure accurate data was obtained. Next, the Ramses model was examined in an attempt to determine the composition and the types of technologies used in the model. This enabled the development of a model that uses similar technologies, but takes a fraction of the time to auto-code to reduce the turnaround time for experimentation. Lastly, the model was used to run a wide array of experiments and collect data to obtain knowledge about where to search for bottlenecks in the Ramses model. The resulting contributions of the overall effort consist of an experimental model for further investigation into the subject, as well as several automation tools to assist in analyzing the model, and a reference document offering insight to the auto-coding process, including documentation of the tools used in the model analysis, data illustrating some potential problem areas in the auto-coding process, and recommendations on areas or practices in the current Ramses model that should be further investigated. Several skills were required to be built up over the course of the internship project. First and foremost, my Simulink skills have improved drastically, as much of my experience had been modeling electronic circuits as opposed to software models. Furthermore, I am now comfortable working with the Simulink Auto-coder, a tool I had never used until this summer; this tool also tested my critical thinking and C++ knowledge as I had to interpret the C++ code it was generating and attempt to understand how the Simulink model affected the generated code. I had come into the internship with a solid understanding of Matlab code, but had done very little in using it to automate tasks, particularly Simulink tasks; along the same lines, I had rarely used shell script to automate and interface with programs, which I gained a fair amount of experience with this summer, including how to use regular expression. Lastly, soft-skills are an area everyone can continuously improve on; having never worked with NASA engineers, which to me seem to be a completely different breed than what I am used to (commercial electronic engineers), I learned to utilize the wealth of knowledge present at JSC. I wish I had come into the internship knowing exactly how helpful everyone in my branch would be, as I would have picked up on this sooner. I hope that having gained such a strong foundation in Simulink over this summer will open the opportunity to return to work on this project, or potentially other opportunities within the division. The idea of leaving a project I devoted ten weeks to is a hard one to cope with, so having the chance to pick up where I left off sounds appealing; alternatively, I am interested to see if there are any opening in the future that would allow me to work on a project that is more in-line with my research in estimation algorithms. Regardless, this summer has been a milestone in my professional career, and I hope this has started a long-term relationship between JSC and myself. I really enjoy the thought of building on my experience here over future summers while I work to complete my PhD at Missouri University of Science and Technology.

Gualdoni, Matthew J.↗

“Best” Iterative Coupled-Cluster Triples Model? More Evidence for 3CC

To follow up on the unexpectedly good performance of several coupled-cluster models with approximate inclusion of 3-body clusters we performed a more complete assessment of the 3CC method for accurate computational thermochemistry in the standard HEAT framework. New spin-integrated implementation of the 3CC method applicable to closed- and open-shell systems utilizes a new automated toolchain for derivation, optimization, and evaluation of operator algebra in many-body electronic structure. We found that with a double-ζ basis set the 3CC correlation energies and their atomization energy contributions are almost always more accurate (with respect to the CCSDTQ reference) than the CCSDT model as well as the standard CCSD(T) model. The mean absolute errors in cc-pVDZ {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} electronic (per valence electron) and atomization energies relative to the CCSDTQ reference for the HEAT data set, were {24, 70, 122} μE h /e and {0.46, 2.00, 2.58} kJ/mol, respectively. The mean absolute errors in the complete-basis-set limit {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} atomization energies relative to the HEAT model reference, were {0.52, 2.00, and 1.07} kJ/mol, The significant and systematic reduction of the error by the 3CC method and its lower cost than CCSDT suggests it as a viable candidate for post- CCSD(T) thermochemistry applications, as well as the preferred alternative to CCSDT in general.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A 'type one' servo explicit model following adaptive scheme.

This paper describes 'type 1' servo techniques applied to explicit model following systems. The advantages of using these are: (1) steady-state decoupling is provided for the controlled state variables as determined by a reference input (the pilot command for example), (2) overall stability of the decoupled adaptive scheme is guaranteed, (3) a zero steady-state error for those state variables incorporating integral feedback, to a constant input reference, and (4) improved transient performance. Example calculations have been performed using a mathematical model for a typical fighter aircraft and a desired performance reference model based on satisfactory aircraft flying qualities. Numerical results are given.

Tiroshi, I.↗

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗