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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME with Results from the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the second irradiation experiment (AGR-2) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The PARFUME model for the Advanced Gas reactor (AGR)GR-2 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 560 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR -2 compacts. In addition, safety tests were performed on 15 compacts ranging from 1500 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. PARFUME was used to calculate the fission product release of silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton during these safety tests. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided the data on release of fission products from the fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. The predicted fraction release from PARFUME was then compared to PIE measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NNLO constraints on proton PDFs from the SeaQuest and STAR experiments and other developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis

We review progress in the global QCD analysis by the CTEQ-TEA group since the publication of CT18 parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the proton. Specifically, we discuss comparisons of CT18 NNLO predictions with the LHC 13 TeV measurements as well as with the FNAL SeaQuest and BNL STAR data on lepton pair production. The specialized CT18X PDFs approximating saturation effects are compared with the CT18sx PDFs obtained using NLL/NLO small-$x$ resummation. Short summaries are presented for the special CT18 parton distributions with fitted charm and with lattice QCD inputs. A recent comparative analysis of the impact of deuteron nuclear effects on the parton distributions by the CTEQ-JLab and CTEQ-TEA groups is summarized.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Designing alloys with process-mapping AI pre-trained on empirical knowledge

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Accelerated materials design should match the recent trends in the product development cycles. Materials data analytics can be used to significantly shorten development time of specialized alloys needed for next generation energy applications. However, it faces a challenge of scarce data available for training ML models. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into deep-learning graph structure via fuzzy pre-training and causal process imitation presents a viable approach to developing accurate data-driven models and reliable alloy design tools, with limited datasets. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was used in this study to incorporate such knowledge in the domain-specific computational tool, pyroMind. The tool provides not only novel design ideas but also their interpretation via physics and engineering concepts.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗

Radiometric Testing of Germicidal UV Products, Round 2: Upper-Room Luminaires (CALiPER Report)

This report analyzes the independently tested performance of eight germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) upper-room luminaires marketed for use in occupied spaces and purchased between March and June 2023. This type of product is mounted to upper walls or ceilings to treat air in the portion of the room above occupants; this allows for safe use of the room when the device is operating, but requires sufficient air mixing between upper and lower portions of the room. Three of the luminaires used UV-emitting LEDs, and the remaining five luminaires used low-pressure mercury (LPM) lamps. Product testing covered radiometric and electrical performance for each luminaire. Initial performance was measured for all eight products, and four were additionally measured after 100 h and 500 h of operation. Measured performance data allowed for comparison against manufacturer or vendor claims if the tested products included such claims. Some products had no performance data available for a given quantity (e.g., UV-C output power), and only four of the eight luminaires had radiant intensity distribution data files in a standard format (e.g., IES LM-63) available for download from product websites. The lack of publicly available performance data makes it difficult for potential buyers and specifiers to identify suitable products and design GUV systems for their specific applications. When products had performance claims, they were sometimes contradictory (e.g., unexplained differences between multiple power values) or ambiguous (e.g., measurement units conflict with quantity, unclear whether luminaire power or lamp power, unclear whether UV output power or UV-C output power). Three of the eight tested luminaires had claimed output power (i.e., radiant flux) values that exceeded measured values by more than an order of magnitude. There was substantial variation in UV-C radiant efficiency, with a measured range of 0.3–1.9% for LED and 0.4–2.1% for LPM, as shown in Figure 1. For example, the LPM luminaire with 0.4% radiant efficiency would need 5 times the amount of electrical energy used by the LPM luminaire with 2.1% radiant efficiency to produce the same amount of UV-C output power. LPM luminaires that had parabolic reflectors aligned with inclined louvers exhibited substantially higher UV-C radiant efficiency than tested luminaires with other designs, potentially cutting energy use by 75%. These results indicate a substantial opportunity for more energy efficient LPM luminaire designs, while demonstrating that UV LED luminaires can offer comparable UV-C radiant efficiency in this application. This may seem surprising, given that LED emitters have lower UV-C radiant efficiency than LPM lamps, but the efficiency-throttling louvers that are generally required for LPM luminaires typically are not needed for LEDs thanks to their directionality. However, lateral beam angles (which describe beam width as viewed from above) were 41–83° for LED luminaires versus 89–110° for LPM luminaires. More luminaires may be required if their lateral beam angles are relatively small, and coverage may be poor if UV-C radiant intensity distribution (i.e., beam shape) is not considered when designing systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Integration of Biorelevant Pediatric Dissolution Methodology into PBPK Modeling to Predict In Vivo Performance and Bioequivalence of Generic Drugs in Pediatric Populations: a Carbamazepine Case Study

This study investigated the impact of gastro-intestinal fluid volume and bile salt (BS) concentration on the dissolution of carbamazepine (CBZ) immediate release (IR) 100 mg tablets and to integrate these in vitro biorelevant dissolution profiles into physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling (PBPK) in pediatric and adult populations to determine the biopredictive dissolution profile. Dissolution profiles of CBZ IR tablets (100 mg) were generated in 50–900 mL biorelevant adult fasted state simulated gastric and intestinal fluid (Ad-FaSSGF and Ad-FaSSIF), also in three alternative compositions of biorelevant pediatric FaSSGF and FaSSIF medias at 200 mL. This study found that CBZ dissolution was poorly sensitive to changes in the composition of the biorelevant media, where dissimilar dissolution (F2 = 46.2) was only observed when the BS concentration was changed from 3000 to 89 μM (Ad-FaSSIF vs Ped-FaSSIF 50% 14 BS). PBPK modeling demonstrated the most predictive dissolution volume and media composition to forecast the PK was 500 mL of Ad-FaSSGF/Ad-FaSSIF media for adults and 200 mL Ped-FaSSGF/FaSSIF media for pediatrics. A virtual bioequivalence simulation was conducted by using Ad-FaSSGF and/or Ad-FaSSIF 500 mL or Ped-FaSSGF and/or Ped-FaSSIF 200 mL dissolution data for CBZ 100 mg (reference and generic test) IR product. The CBZ PBPK models showed bioequivalence of the product. This study demonstrates that the integration of biorelevant dissolution data can predict the PK profile of a poorly soluble drug in both populations. Further work using more pediatric drug products is needed to verify biorelevant dissolution data to predict the in vivo performance in pediatrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uranium Carbide and Uranium-Metal Thermal Scattering Law Evaluations and Cross Sections [Slides]

New Uranium Carbide and Uranium Metal evaluations have been developed using the FLASSH platform. Ab initio LD/MD models converged electronic, magnetic, and dynamical properties and demonstrate good agreement with experimental data. Thermal scattering cross sections generate inelastic and elastic thermal neutron scattering libraries in FLASSH . New TSL evaluations occurred in the production of ENDF File 7 data for Uranium Carbide and Uranium Metal submitted to NNDC for ENDF/B-VIII.1 release.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thriving in the Carbon-Aware Market: How to Account for Emissions in the Era of Carbon-Centered Trade Policies

Emerging global policies, such as the European Union's enacted Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and similar policies under development in Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom, will place a premium on goods traded into their territories with higher embedded emissions than those produced domestically. U.S. manufacturers could stand to benefit from such policies; given the investments U.S. industry has made to reduce the energy and emission intensities of its operations. For example, the overall GHG intensity of U.S. steel production in 2019 was ~0.96 t CO2/t steel, less than half that of China (~1.97 t CO2/t steel), and bested only by Italy. To realize these benefits, transparent, accurate, interoperable and accepted embedded emissions accounting and calculation methods are required. Achieving this requires overcoming challenges related to data availability, boundary definitions, and product definitions among others, both at individual facilities as well as through value chains. We will present technical findings on methodology considerations and data-availability constraints for determining the emissions of traded goods, using steel as a pilot and leveraging publicly available data. Issues such as determining the appropriate scope for emissions accounting, implications of the specificity of product chosen, emissions allocation in multi-product facilities, and enumeration of emissions for products manufactured across multiple facilities will be discussed. By sharing the results of our efforts, we aim to inform the development and execution of embedded emissions accounting methods from a technical perspective such that U.S. manufacturers can thrive in emerging global markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Validation of the Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOMI cloud data with Cloudnet, Aura OMI O 2 –O 2 , MODIS, and Suomi-NPP VIIRS

Accurate knowledge of cloud properties is essential to the measurement of atmospheric composition from space. In this work we assess the quality of the cloud data from three Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) TROPOMI cloud products: (i) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL (Optical Cloud Recognition Algorithm/Retrieval of Cloud Information using Neural Networks;Clouds-As-Layers), (ii) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB (Clouds-as-Reflecting Boundaries), and (iii) S5P FRESCO-S (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from Oxygen absorption bands – Sentinel). Target properties of this work are cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness (OCRA/ROCINN_CAL), cloud height (OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and FRESCO-S), and radiometric cloud fraction (all three algorithms). The analysis combines (i) the examination of cloud maps for artificial geographical patterns, (ii) the comparison to other satellite cloud data (MODIS, NPP-VIIRS, and OMI O2–O2), and (iii) ground-based validation with respect to correlative observations (30 April 2018 to 27 February 2020) from the Cloudnet network of ceilometers, lidars, and radars. Zonal mean latitudinal variation of S5P cloud properties is similar to that of other satellite data. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL agrees well with NPP VIIRS cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness and with Cloudnet cloud-top height, especially for the low (mostly liquid) clouds. For the high clouds, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL cloud-top height is below the cloud-top height of VIIRS and of Cloudnet, while its cloud optical thickness is higher than that of VIIRS. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO cloud height are well below the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the low clouds but match on average better with the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the higher clouds. As opposed to S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL is well able to match the lowest CTH mode of the Cloudnet observations. Peculiar geographical patterns are identified in the cloud products and will be mitigated in future releases of the cloud data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-op at Sandia National Laboratories (July - December 2019, Final Report)

This co-op was performed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) within the Weapon Surety Engineering 11 Department (9435), which is a customer-focused organization that provides engineering and system analysis expertise to ensure a safe deterrent throughout the entire weapon lifecycle. Engineers in 9435 develop a deep knowledge in both component and system function to support rigorous evaluation and mitigation of potential failure modes. They operate across multiple engineering disciplines (mechanical, electrical, computer, materials and systems engineering) with opportunities to develop crossdisciplinary capability. The team supports a variety of stockpile systems and is part of the product teams during development, design and production, as well as advanced concept and exploratory efforts. 9435 engineers use their extensive component and system knowledge, as well as experimental data and modeling, to ensure products function as intended with assured safety. Members of the department learn the function of multiple components, how those components integrate within the system and apply surety principles and processes to ensure a safe, secure, reliable, and effective U.S. nuclear deterrent.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using 139 fb -1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 -1 fb of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Ethanol Conversion over La 0.7 Sr 0.3 MnO 3–x (100): Autocatalysis, Adjacent O-Vacancies, Disproportionation, and Dehydrogenation

The mechanism for catalytic conversion of ethanol over La 0.7 Sr 0.3 MnO 3– x (100) surface to acetaldehyde and ethene was investigated. Pre-exposure temperature-programmed reaction (PE-TPR) experiments were performed in which ethanol was introduced to oxidized or reduced surfaces followed by heating. In particular, sequential PE-TPR experiments were conducted to incrementally and gradually reduce the surface. The products and their ratios were investigated as a function of surface reduction. The data show that acetaldehyde and ethene production is catalyzed with hydrogen abstraction and oxygen abstraction reactions occurring by intermediates in vacancies at various temperatures >400 K. Adsorption of acetaldehyde followed by a temperature-programmed reaction does not produce ethene, indicating that acetaldehyde is not an intermediate to ethene and that the hydrogen and oxygen abstraction from ethanol to ethene are decoupled steps. Further evidence for this mechanistic nuance was obtained using isotopically labeled ethanol (CD 3 CH 2 OH), which produces CD 3 CHO and CD 2 CH 2 . Additionally, the ratio of aldehyde production to alkene production increases with reduction, suggesting that aldehyde is produced from a disproportionation reaction between ethoxy species in adjacent O-vacancies, while ethene is produced from a dehydrogenation reaction with ethoxy species in vacancies without requiring adjacent O-vacancies. Counterintuitively, this finding indicates that the more oxygenated product (aldehyde vs ethene) is favored with more vacancies and that the net alcohol conversion is autocatalytic. Density functional theory calculations were able to find the previously unknown disproportionation pathway between ethoxies in adjacent O-vacancies, and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations support this interpretation by reproducing experimental selectivities. The activation energies for these pathways are estimated as 132 ± 10 kJ/mol for the disproportionation reaction (when occurring between ethoxies in adjacent vacancies) and as 148 ± 11 kJ/mol for the direct dehydrogenation reaction of an ethoxy in a vacancy. Based on these results, a mechanism with operative pathways based on elementary steps in O-vacancies is reported.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ionospheric Disturbances in GNSS TEC Data: SpaceX Falcon 9 Deorbit Maneuvers Over CONUS in April–May 2024

Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) driven by a large number of internal and external sources are detectable with dense networks of ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers' measurements of total electron content (TEC). We present the newly developed System for Rapid Analysis of Ionospheric Dynamics (S‐RAID), providing data and visual GNSS TEC products of TIDs of periods ~2–120 min and horizontal resolution up to tens of kilometers for years 2017–2024. The S‐RAID data reveal myriad natural and anthropogenic TIDs from meteorology and space weather, and from human spaceflight activities. In this report, we focus on new prominent disturbances found during SpaceX second stage deorbit maneuvers in April–May 2024. Signatures include waves emanating from the Falcon's trajectory above California and depletions following its deorbit and passage over Arizona. These findings suggest further opportunities to detect and quantify small‐scale events in the ionosphere as well as to understand the responses of the atmosphere‐ionosphere system to known inputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

Gravitational wave sources↗

Cognitive simulation models for inertial confinement fusion: Combining simulation and experimental data

The design space for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments is vast, and experiments are extremely expensive. Researchers rely heavily on computer simulations to explore the design space in search of high-performing implosions. However, ICF multiphysics codes must make simplifying assumptions, and thus deviate from experimental measurements for complex implosions. For more effective design and investigation, simulations require input from past experimental data to better predict future performance. In this work, we describe a cognitive simulation method for combining simulation and experimental data into a common, predictive model. This method leverages a machine learning technique called “transfer learning,” the process of taking a model trained to solve one task, and partially retraining it on a sparse dataset to solve a different, but related task. In the context of ICF design, neural network models are trained on large simulation databases and partially retrained on experimental data, producing models that are far more accurate than simulations alone. Here, we demonstrate improved model performance for a range of ICF experiments at the National Ignition Facility and predict the outcome of recent experiments with less than 10% error for several key observables. We discuss how the methods might be used to carry out a data-driven experimental campaign to optimize performance, illustrating the key product—models that become increasingly accurate as data are acquired.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Triton: Environmental Monitoring Technology Development, Collision Risk Data Collection (Final Report)

In this project, we assembled a sensor suite that combines a scientific echosounder (sonar) system with video and acoustic cameras (secondary sensors). The sensor suite generates data that is amenable to automated target detection algorithms and can provide inputs to animal encounter models. We developed software (archiving software) to collect data simultaneously from all sensors in the suite, analyze the sonar data automatically in near real-time to identify time periods when targets of interest were present, and automatically archive data from the secondary sensors for these time periods. The product of the archiving software is a data set for the secondary sensors, containing data only for the times when targets of interest were determined to be present by the sonar. We performed controlled field testing to verify the operation of the sensor suite and the archiving software.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗