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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Transfer Learning-Based Independent Component Analysis

Understanding the underlying component structure is crucial for multivariate signal analysis. Among all the techniques that try to learn the latent structure, independent component analysis (ICA) is one of the most important and popular methods, which aims to extract independent components from multivariate signals and enables further analysis. For example, in electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis, artifacts filtering and disease detection are conducted based on the independent components of the signals. One critical challenge in existing ICA approaches is that the component extraction accuracy may degrade when the available data of a unit are limited. To address this issue, this paper proposes a transfer learning-based ICA method by innovatively transferring component distribution from a source domain, so that accurate component extraction results can be achieved even when only limited data are available in the target domain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that leverages transfer learning to improve ICA accuracy with limited available data. In particular, we first extract all the independent components from the source domain by maximizing the log-likelihood function with a Newton-like method on a smooth manifold. Then for the target domain, the component with the largest negentropy is extracted in each round. To effectively leverage the knowledge from the source domain and to prevent the negative transfer, we try to find a component in the source domain that matches the component we are extracting. The probability density function of the matched component will then be used to improve the component extraction accuracy if such matched component can be found; otherwise, no knowledge will be transferred. Finally, numerical simulations and a case study with electrocardiogram (ECG) data are conducted, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method in transferring knowledge and reducing negative transfer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual link failure after some amount of elapsed time. The descriptor loss of assured safety (LOAS) is used because failure of the WL system places the entire system in an inoperable configuration while failure of the SL system before failure of the WL system, although undesirable, does not necessarily result in an unintended operation of the entire system. Thus, safety is “assured” by failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system. Here, the following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation, approximation and illustration of PLOAS with (a) constant delay times, (b) aleatory uncertainty in delay times, and (c) delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for link failure precursors, and (iii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Review of the August 1972 and March 1989 (Allen) Space Weather Events: Can We Learn Anything New From Them?

Abstract Updated summaries of the August 1972 and March 1989 space weather events have been constructed. The features of these two events are compared to the Carrington 1859 event and a few other major space weather events. It is concluded that solar active regions release energy in a variety of forms (X‐rays, EUV photons, visible light, coronal mass ejection (CME) plasmas and fields) and they in turn can produce other energetic effects (solar energetic particles (SEPs), magnetic storms) in a variety of ways. It is clear that there is no strong one‐to‐one relationship between these various energy sinks. The energy is often distributed differently from one space weather event to the next. Concerning SEPs accelerated at interplanetary CME (ICME) shocks, it is concluded that the Fermi mechanism associated with quasi‐parallel shocks is relatively weak and that the gradient drift mechanism (electric fields) at quasi‐perpendicular shocks will produce harder spectra and higher fluxes. If the 4 August 1972 intrinsic magnetic cloud condition (southward interplanetary magnetic field instead of northward) and the interplanetary Sun to 1 au conditions were different, a 4 August 1972 magnetic storm and magnetospheric dawn‐to‐dusk electric fields substantially larger than the Carrington event would have occurred. Under these special interplanetary conditions, a Miyake et al. (2012), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123 ‐like extreme SEP event may have been formed. The long duration complex 1989 storm was probably greater than the Carrington storm in the sense that the total ring current particle energy was larger.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

Enhanced Deuteron Coalescence Probability in Jets

The transverse-momentum ($p_T$) spectra and coalescence parameters $B_2$ of (anti)deuterons are measured in p-p collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text{TeV}$ for the first time in and out of jets. In this measurement, the direction of the leading particle with the highest $p_T$ in the event ($p^{lead}_T > 5 GeV/c$) is used as an approximation for the jet axis. The event is consequently divided into three azimuthal regions, and the jet signal is obtained as the difference between the toward region, that contains jet fragmentation products in addition to the underlying event (UE), and the transverse region, which is dominated by the UE. The coalescence parameter in the jet is found to be approximately a factor of 10 larger than that in the underlying event. This experimental observation is consistent with the coalescence picture and can be attributed to the smaller average phase-space distance between nucleons in the jet cone as compared with the underlying event. The results presented in this Letter are compared to predictions from a simple nucleon coalescence model, where the phase-space distributions of nucleons are generated using pythia8 with the Monash 2013 tuning, and to predictions from a deuteron production model based on ordinary nuclear reactions with parametrized energy-dependent cross sections tuned on data. The latter model is implemented in pythia8.3. Both models reproduce the observed large difference between in-jet and out-of-jet coalescence parameters, although the almost flat trend of the $B^{Jet}_2$ is not reproduced by the models, which instead give a decreasing trend.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Simulated Precipitation Diurnal Variation With a Deep Convective Closure Subject to Shallow Convection in Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 Coupled With CLUBB

In order to improve the physical consistency between shallow and deep convection, we modify the deep convective closure in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) coupled with a third-order turbulence closure parameterization (i.e., Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals; CLUBB). The revised closure reserves a portion of the total convective available potential energy for shallow convection via utilizing the heating and moistening profiles from CLUBB to distribute moisture and energy between shallow and deep convection. Simulations at two resolutions (i.e. 2° and 0.5°, respectively) are conducted to investigate the impacts of convective closure on the simulated precipitation diurnal variations. Results from low-resolution simulations show that the revised closure suppresses deep convection until the lower troposphere is sufficiently moistened by shallow convection, which improves the precipitation diurnal variation simulations compared to the default closure, with the precipitation diurnal peak over tropical lands delayed from 12LST to 19LST. The revised closure better simulates the diurnal variations for precipitation over the Asian monsoon region, such as the delayed precipitation onset, but still fails to well capture the nighttime peak for precipitation there. This deficiency is alleviated to some extent when applying the revised closure in highresolution simulations, but nighttime precipitation is still underestimated probably because key processes responsible for nighttime convection are missing. Altogether, our results indicate that establishing the consistency between shallow and deep convection is critical for the precipitation diurnal cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

​​Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities​

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The K2 M67 Study: Precise Mass for a Turnoff Star in the Old Open Cluster M67

We present a study of the bright detached eclipsing main-sequence binary WOCS 11028 (Sanders 617) in the open cluster M67. Although the binary has only one eclipse per orbital cycle, we show that the masses of the stars can be derived very precisely thanks to a strong constraint on the orbital inclination: M {sub A} = 1.222 ± 0.006M {sub ⊙} and M {sub B} = 0.909 ± 0.004M {sub ⊙}. We use a spectral energy distribution fitting method to derive characteristics of the component stars in lieu of the precise radii that would normally be derived from a doubly eclipsing binary. The deconvolution of the SEDs reveals that the brighter component of the binary is at the faint turnoff point for the cluster—a distinct evolutionary point that occurs after the convective core has been established and while the star is in the middle of its movement toward lower surface temperatures, before the so-called hook at the end of the main sequence. The measurements are in distinct disagreement with evolution models at solar metallicity: higher metal abundances are needed to reproduce the characteristics of WOCS 11028 A. We discuss the changes to model physics that are likely to be needed to address the discrepancies. The clearest conclusions are that diffusion is probably necessary to reconcile spectroscopic abundances of M67 stars with the need for higher metallicity models and that reduced strength convective overshooting is occurring for stars at the turnoff. At super-solar bulk metallicity, various indicators agree on a cluster age between about 3.5 and 4.0 Gyr.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis and design of DC-link capacitor in cascaded H-bridge multilevel active front-end converter

Medium-voltage grid-tied systems often use a cascaded H-bridge multi-level active front-end. In this converter, dc link bus capacitors play an important role in stabilizing the converter and enabling both active and reactive power injections. The present work provides analytical expressions for the capacitor current, which are essential for optimizing system design (especially capacitor size vs. lifetime). Then, the expression is incorporated into the grid connected bidirectional power system model. Consequently, this work contributes to the guiding principles to choose accurate dc link capacitor ratings against grid-side power delivery requirements. DC-link capacitors come with an expiration date which is dependent on the operating power and voltage values. Lack of information about the lifetime of the dc-link capacitor creates uncertainty in the duration of online operation of the converter, thus increasing the probability of a contingency outage. The lifetime of the capacitor can range from only a few seconds of online operation of the station due to under-sizing, to a compromised quality of power flowing through other solid state devices which may not have been designed for the transients that are caused by over-sizing of the dc-link capacitor. A better estimate of the lifetime of these capacitors can help maximize usage and maintain scheduled outages more efficiently, without disruption in service.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

New Particle Formation and Growth to Climate-Relevant Aerosols at a Background Remote Site in the Western Himalaya

New particle formation (NPF) can influence the Earth’s radiative budget when the newly formed particles grow to climate-relevant sizes. Here, we present analysis of 21-months of continuous aerosol size distribution measurements at a background remote site in the western Himalaya and provide observational evidence that newly formed particles grow to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)-active sizes (i.e. >20-100 nm in diameter). Out of total 55 NPF events, 38 (66%) events occurred in the pre-monsoon season (March-May). NPF events were classified into those with and without pollution influence as polluted and cleaner, respectively, using black carbon data. The analysis of air mass age, based on the ratio of number concentration of Aitken to accumulation mode aerosols, indicated that NPF occurred in the relatively cleaner air masses reaching to the site. The median formation rate of 10 nm particles and particle growth rates for cleaner events were three-fold and two-fold, respectively, higher than polluted events. We present the first estimates of the survival probability of newly formed particles to 50 nm and 100 nm size, which was not attempted in an Indian environment previously. The survival probability to 50 nm particles ranged from 44 to 98%, with a mean and standard deviation of 82 ± 18%. On average, ~60% of the particles surviving to 50 nm survived to 100 nm, making the overall survival probability of 100 nm to 53 ± 31%. This indicates that the probability of nucleated particles growing to CCN-active sizes under a large source of condensing vapor (transported from nearby lower-altitude regions) and low pre-existing particle concentrations (background mountain site) is high compared to the previous studies. These findings highlight the importance of the efficiency of nucleation events for producing CCN, which is a critical basis of aerosol indirect effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hyporheic hydraulic geometry: Conceptualizing relationships among hyporheic exchange, storage, and water age

Hyporheic exchange is now widely acknowledged as a key driver of ecosystem processes in many streams. Yet stream ecologists have been slow to adopt nuanced hydrologic frameworks developed and applied by engineers and hydrologists to describe the relationship between water storage, water age, and water balance in finite hydrosystems such as hyporheic zones. Here, in the context of hyporheic hydrology, we summarize a well-established mathematical framework useful for describing hyporheic hydrology, while also applying the framework heuristically to visualize the relationships between water age, rates of hyporheic exchange, and water volume within hyporheic zones. Building on this heuristic application, we discuss how improved accuracy in the conceptualization of hyporheic exchange can yield a deeper understanding of the role of the hyporheic zone in stream ecosystems. Although the equations presented here have been well-described for decades, our aim is to make the mathematical basis as accessible as possible and to encourage broader understanding among aquatic ecologists of the implications of tailed age distributions commonly observed in water discharged from and stored within hyporheic zones. Our quantitative description of “hyporheic hydraulic geometry,” associated visualizations, and discussion offer a nuanced and realistic understanding of hyporheic hydrology to aid in considering hyporheic exchange in the context of river and stream ecosystem science and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The distribution of [α/Fe] in the Milky Way disc

ABSTRACT Using a sample of red giant stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) Data Release 16, we infer the conditional distribution $p([\alpha /{\rm Fe}]\, |\, [{\rm Fe}/{\rm H}])$ in the Milky Way disk for the α-elements Mg, O, Si, S, and Ca. In each bin of [Fe/H] and Galactocentric radius R, we model p([α/Fe]) as a sum of two Gaussians, representing ‘low-α’ and ‘high-α’ populations with scale heights $z_1=0.45\, {\rm kpc}$ and $z_2=0.95\, {\rm kpc}$, respectively. By accounting for age-dependent and z-dependent selection effects in APOGEE, we infer the [α/Fe] distributions that would be found for a fair sample of long-lived stars covering all z. Near the Solar circle, this distribution is bimodal at sub-solar [Fe/H], with the low-α and high-α peaks clearly separated by a minimum at intermediate [α/Fe]. In agreement with previous results, we find that the high-α population is more prominent at smaller R, lower [Fe/H], and larger |z|, and that the sequence separation is smaller for Si and Ca than for Mg, O, and S. We find significant intrinsic scatter in [α/Fe] at fixed [Fe/H] for both the low-α and high-α populations, typically ∼0.04-dex. The means, dispersions, and relative amplitudes of this two-Gaussian description, and the dependence of these parameters on R, [Fe/H], and α-element, provide a quantitative target for chemical evolution models and a test for hydrodynamic simulations of disk galaxy formation. We argue that explaining the observed bimodality will probably require one or more sharp transitions in the disk’s gas accretion, star formation, or outflow history in addition to radial mixing of stellar populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determinants of synapse diversity revealed by super-resolution quantal transmission and active zone imaging

Neural circuit function depends on the pattern of synaptic connections between neurons and the strength of those connections. Synaptic strength is determined by both postsynaptic sensitivity to neurotransmitter and the presynaptic probability of action potential evoked transmitter release (P r ). Whereas morphology and neurotransmitter receptor number indicate postsynaptic sensitivity, presynaptic indicators and the mechanism that sets P r remain to be defined. To address this, we developed QuaSOR, a super-resolution method for determining P r from quantal synaptic transmission imaging at hundreds of glutamatergic synapses at a time. We mapped the P r onto super-resolution 3D molecular reconstructions of the presynaptic active zones (AZs) of the same synapses at the Drosophila larval neuromuscular junction (NMJ). We find that P r varies greatly between synapses made by a single axon, quantify the contribution of key AZ proteins to P r diversity and find that one of these, Complexin, suppresses spontaneous and evoked transmission differentially, thereby generating a spatial and quantitative mismatch between release modes. Transmission is thus regulated by the balance and nanoscale distribution of release-enhancing and suppressing presynaptic proteins to generate high signal-to-noise evoked transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗