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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Investigating Uncertainty in Predicting Carbon Dynamics in North American Biomes: Putting Support-Effect Bias in Perspective

A fundamental strategy in NASA's Earth Observing System's (EOS) monitoring of vegetation and its contribution to the global carbon cycle is to rely on deterministic, process-based ecosystem models to make predictions of carbon flux over large regions. These models are parameterized (that is, the input variables are derived) using remotely sensed images such as those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ground measurements and interpolated maps. Since early applications of these models, investigators have noted that results depend partly on the spatial support of the input variables. In general, the larger the support of the input data, the greater the chance that the effects of important components of the ecosystem will be averaged out. A review of previous work shows that using large supports can cause either positive or negative bias in carbon flux predictions. To put the magnitude and direction of these biases in perspective, we must quantify the range of uncertainty on our best measurements of carbon-related variables made on equivalent areas. In other words, support-effect bias should be placed in the context of prediction uncertainty from other sources. If the range of uncertainty at the smallest support is less than the support-effect bias, more research emphasis should probably be placed on support sizes that are intermediate between those of field measurements and MODIS. If the uncertainty range at the smallest support is larger than the support-effect bias, the accuracy of MODIS-based predictions will be difficult to quantify and more emphasis should be placed on field-scale characterization and sampling. This talk will describe methods to address these issues using a field measurement campaign in North America and "upscaling" using geostatistical estimation and simulation.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

Asteroid Measurements at Millimeter Wavelengths with the South Pole Telescope

Abstract We present the first measurements of asteroids in millimeter wavelength data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT), which is used primarily to study the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We analyze maps of two ∼270 deg2 sky regions near the ecliptic plane, each observed with the SPTpol camera ∼100 times over 1 month. We subtract the mean of all maps of a given field, removing static sky signal, and then average the mean-subtracted maps at known asteroid locations. We detect three asteroids—(324) Bamberga, (13) Egeria, and (22) Kalliope—with signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) of 11.2, 10.4, and 6.1, respectively, at 2.0 mm (150 GHz); we also detect (324) Bamberga with an S/N of 4.1 at 3.2 mm (95 GHz). We place constraints on these asteroids’ effective emissivities, brightness temperatures, and light-curve modulation amplitude. Our flux density measurements of (324) Bamberga and (13) Egeria roughly agree with predictions, while our measurements of (22) Kalliope suggest lower flux, corresponding to effective emissivities of 0.64 ± 0.11 at 2.0 and < 0.47 at 3.2 mm. We predict the asteroids detectable in other SPT data sets and find good agreement with detections of (772) Tanete and (1093) Freda in recent data from the SPT-3G camera, which has ∼10× the mapping speed of SPTpol. This work is the first focused analysis of asteroids in data from CMB surveys, and it demonstrates we can repurpose historic and future data sets for asteroid studies. Future SPT measurements can help constrain the distribution of surface properties over a larger asteroid population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Hill, Terry R.↗

Development of Web Mapping Service Capabilities to Support NASA Disasters Applications/App Development

During the last year several significant disasters have occurred such as Superstorm Sandy on the East coast of the United States, and Typhoon Bopha in the Phillipines, along with several others. In support of these disasters NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center delivered various products derived from satellite imagery to help in the assessment of damage and recovery of the affected areas. To better support the decision makers responding to the disasters SPoRT quickly developed several solutions to provide the data using open Geographical Information Service (GIS) formats. Providing the data in open GIS standard formats allowed the end user to easily integrate the data into existing Decision Support Systems (DSS). Both Tile Mapping Service (TMS) and Web Mapping Service (WMS) were leveraged to quickly provide the data to the end‐user. Development of the deliver methodology allowed quick response to rapidly developing disasters and enabled NASA SPoRT to bring science data to decision makers in a successful research to operations transition.

Burks, Jason E.↗

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Phase diagram and spectroscopic signatures of a supersolid in the quantum ising magnet K 2 Co(SeO 3 ) 2

Supersolid phases are quantum-entangled states of matter exhibiting the dual characteristics of superfluidity and solidity. Theory predicts that hard-core bosons on a triangular lattice can form such phases at half filling and near complete filling. Leveraging an exact mapping between bosons and spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ degrees of freedom, here we show that these phases are realized in the triangular-lattice antiferromagnet K 2 Co(SeO 3 ) 2 . At zero field, neutron diffraction reveals the development of quasi-two-dimensional $\sqrt3$ x $\sqrt3$ magnetic order with Z 3 translational symmetry breaking (solidity), though with reduced amplitude indicating strong quantum fluctuations. These fluctuations manifest as equidistant bands of continuum neutron scattering, where the lowest-energy mode is gapless at K ($\frac{1}{3}$ $\frac{1}{3}$), consistent with broken U(1) spin rotational symmetry (superfluidity). For c-axis-oriented magnetic fields near saturation, we find a second phase consistent with a high-field supersolid. These two supersolids are separated by a pronounced 1/3 magnetization plateau phase that supports coherent spin waves, from which we determine the underlying spin Hamiltonian.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Reaction dynamics of S( 3 P) with 1,3-butadiene and isoprene: crossed-beam scattering, low-temperature flow experiments, and high-level electronic structure calculations

Sulfur atoms serve as key players in diverse chemical processes, from astrochemistry at very low temperature to combustion at high temperature. Building upon our prior findings, showing cyclization to thiophenes following the reaction of ground-state sulfur atoms with dienes, we here extend this investigation to include many additional reaction products, guided by detailed theoretical predictions. The outcomes highlight the complex formation of products during intersystem crossing (ISC) to the singlet surfaces. Here, we employed crossed-beam velocity map imaging and high-level ab initio methods to explore the reaction of S( 3 P) with 1,3-butadiene and isoprene under single-collision conditions and in low-temperature flows. For the butadiene reaction, our experimental results show the formation of thiophene via H 2 loss, a 2H-thiophenyl radical through H loss, and thioketene through ethene loss at a slightly higher collision energy compared to previous observations. Complementary Chirped-Pulse Fourier-Transform mmWave spectroscopy (CP-FTmmW) measurements in a uniform flow confirmed the formation of thioketene in the reaction at 20 K. For the isoprene reaction, we observed analogous products along with the 2H-thiophenyl radical arising from methyl loss and C 3 H 4 S (loss of ethene or H 2 + acetylene). CP-FTmmW detected the formation of thioformaldehyde via loss of 1,3-butadiene, again in the 20 K flow. Coupled-cluster calculations on the pathways found by the automated kinetic workflow code KinBot support these findings and indicate ISC to the singlet surface, leading to the generation of various long-lived intermediates, including 5-membered heterocycles.

Lang, Jinxin↗

Treating random sequential addition via the replica method

While many physical processes are non-equilibrium in nature, the theory and modeling of such phenomena lag behind theoretical treatments of equilibrium systems. The diversity of powerful theoretical tools available to describe equilibrium systems has inspired strategies that map non-equilibrium systems onto equivalent equilibrium analogs so that interrogation with standard statistical mechanical approaches is possible. In this work, we revisit the mapping from the non-equilibrium random sequential addition process onto an equilibrium multi-component mixture via the replica method, allowing for theoretical predictions of non-equilibrium structural quantities. We validate the above approach by comparing the theoretical predictions to numerical simulations of random sequential addition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modelling the Milky Way – I. Method and first results fitting the thick disc and halo with DES-Y3 data

ABSTRACT We present a technique to fit the stellar components of the Galaxy by comparing Hess Diagrams (HDs) generated from trilegal models to real data. We apply this technique, which we call mwfitting, to photometric data from the first 3 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). After removing regions containing known resolved stellar systems such as globular clusters, dwarf galaxies, nearby galaxies, the Large Magellanic Cloud, and the Sagittarius Stream, our main sample spans a total area of ∼2300 deg2. We further explore a smaller subset (∼1300 deg2) that excludes all regions with known stellar streams and stellar overdensities. Validation tests on synthetic data possessing similar properties to the DES data show that the method is able to recover input parameters with a precision better than 3 per cent. We fit the DES data with an exponential thick disc model and an oblate double power-law halo model. We find that the best-fitting thick disc model has radial and vertical scale heights of 2.67 ± 0.09 kpc and 925 ± 40 pc, respectively. The stellar halo is fit with a broken power-law density profile with an oblateness of 0.75 ± 0.01, an inner index of 1.82 ± 0.08, an outer index of 4.14 ± 0.05, and a break at 18.52 ± 0.27 kpc from the Galactic centre. Several previously discovered stellar overdensities are recovered in the residual stellar density map, showing the reliability of mwfitting in determining the Galactic components. Simulations made with the best-fitting parameters are a promising way to predict Milky Way star counts for surveys such as the LSST and Euclid.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Covariance matrices for variance-suppressed simulations

ABSTRACT Cosmological N-body simulations provide numerical predictions of the structure of the Universe against which to compare data from ongoing and future surveys, but the growing volume of the Universe mapped by surveys requires correspondingly lower statistical uncertainties in simulations, usually achieved by increasing simulation sizes at the expense of computational power. It was recently proposed to reduce simulation variance without incurring additional computational costs by adopting fixed-amplitude initial conditions. This method has been demonstrated not to introduce bias in various statistics, including the two-point statistics of galaxy samples typically used for extracting cosmological parameters from galaxy redshift survey data, but requires us to revisit current methods for estimating covariance matrices of clustering statistics for simulations. In this work, we find that it is not trivial to construct covariance matrices analytically for fixed-amplitude simulations, but we demonstrate that ezmock (Effective Zel’dovich approximation mock catalogue), the most efficient method for constructing mock catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics, provides reasonable covariance matrix estimates for such simulations. We further examine how the variance suppression obtained by amplitude-fixing depends on three-point clustering, small-scale clustering, and galaxy bias, and propose intuitive explanations for the effects we observe based on the ezmock bias model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phase-field model of alloy solidification far from chemical equilibrium at the solid-liquid interface

We further develop a recently introduced phase-field model of far-from-equilibrium alloy solidification under additive manufacturing conditions [K. Ji et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 026203 (2023)]. This model utilizes enhanced solute diffusivity within the spatially diffuse interface region to quantitatively capture solute trapping with a larger interface width, thereby making simulations on experimentally relevant length and timescales computationally feasible. The main developments presented here include testing the robustness of different variational formulations, extending the model to concentrated alloys by incorporating solid and liquid free energies from thermodynamic databases, as illustrated for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys with CALPHAD, extending convergence tests as a function of interface width to 3D, and carrying out simulations in both 2D and 3D to examine existing theories of microstructure development. Our results indicate that the simplest variational formulation that interpolates the bulk free-energy density between its solid and liquid forms is the most robust. Remarkably, for hypoeutectic Al-Ag alloys, this formulation yields a high-velocity nonequilibrium phase diagram that is independent of interface width, thereby demonstrating that the framework of enhanced solute diffusivity can be nontrivially extended to concentrated alloys. Other variational formulations have restricted ranges of materials or processing parameters that can be reliably modeled. We use 2D simulations to construct high-velocity microstructure selection maps for dilute Al-Cu alloys. The results validate the important role of latent heat rejection at the interface and extend the limited predictions of linear stability analysis [A. Karma and A. Sarkissian, Phys. Rev. E 47, 513 (1993)] and sharp-interface 1D simulations to fully nonlinear regimes. Furthermore, 3D simulations, carried out using a computationally tractable axisymmetric cellular/dendritic interface shape, demonstrate a good convergence similar to that observed in 2D as a function of interface width. Full 3D simulations, in turn, reveal that the standard theory of absolute stability is a good predictor of the upper critical velocity beyond which steady-state growth becomes unstable, despite the different morphological manifestations of this instability in 2D and 3D.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ENIGMA: Ecosystems and Networks Integrated with Genes and Molecular Assemblies. Final Report

ENIGMA research is performed at a very large scale involving collaborations between multiple research groups to address two major driving concepts: For any microbe, it is possible to discover efficiently the genetic determinants of adaptation to life in dynamic environments in contact with other living members of its ecology and reveal hidden functional phenomena that are only possible by using a systems biology approach; and for any environment, it is possible to predict the temporal changes in geochemistry and accompanying system behavior, for some length of time, given biogeochemical and physical inputs. These driving concepts also map directly to grand challenges the ENIGMA team has outlined: “Define the levels of biological organization most relevant to scaling from single cells to ecosystems and global cycles; capture how that organization varies in time and space; and identify critical interactions that dictate rates of carbon, nutrient, and energy transformation in different environments.”

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

QCD Equation of State and Phase Diagram from Holographic Black Holes

By using the AdS/CFT correspondence, we construct an Einstein-Maxwell-Dilaton model to map the thermodynamics of strongly interacting matter. The holographic model, constrained to reproduce the lattice QCD equation of state at zero baryon chemical potential, predicts a critical end point and a first order phase transition line. We also obtain the equation of state of the model for a large region of the phase diagram. We characterize the crossover transition region by two lines, one associated to the inflection of the second order baryon susceptibility, and another one associated to the minimum of the square of the speed of sound along trajectories of constant entropy per baryon number. We observe that both lines merge at the critical point.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Hydro-particle-mesh Code for Efficient and Rapid Simulations of the Intracluster Medium

We introduce the cosmological HYPER code based on an innovative hydro-particle-mesh (HPM) algorithm for efficient and rapid simulations of gas and dark matter. For the HPM algorithm, we update the approach of Gnedin & Hui to expand the scope of its application from the lower-density intergalactic medium (IGM) to the higher-density intracluster medium (ICM). While the original algorithm tracks only one effective particle species, the updated version separately tracks the gas and dark matter particles, as they do not exactly trace each other on small scales. For the approximate hydrodynamics solver, the pressure term in the gas equations of motion is calculated using robust physical models. In particular, we use a dark matter halo model, ICM pressure profile, and IGM temperature–density relation, all of which can be systematically varied for parameter-space studies. We show that the HYPER simulation results are in good agreement with the halo model expectations for the density, temperature, and pressure radial profiles. Simulated galaxy cluster scaling relations for Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) and X-ray observables are also in good agreement with mean predictions, with scatter comparable to that found in hydrodynamic simulations. HYPER also produces lightcone catalogs of dark matter halos and full-sky tomographic maps of the lensing convergence, SZ effect, and X-ray emission. These simulation products are useful for testing data analysis pipelines, generating training data for machine learning, understanding selection and systematic effects, and for interpreting astrophysical and cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thunderstorms and ground-based radio noise as observed by radio astronomy Explorer 1

Radio Astronomy Explorer (RAE) data were analyzed to determine the frequency dependence of HF terrestrial radio noise power. RAE observations of individual thunderstorms, mid-ocean areas, and specific geographic regions for which concommitant ground based measurements are available indicate that noise power is a monotonically decreasing function of frequency which conforms to expectations over the geographic locations and time periods investigated. In all cases investigated, active thunderstorm regions emit slightly higher power as contrasted to RAE observations of the region during meteorologically quiet periods. Noise levels are some 15 db higher than predicted values over mid-ocean, while in locations where ground based measurements are available a maximum deviation of 5 db occurs. Worldwide contour mapping of the noise power at 6000 km for five individual months and four observing frequencies, examples of which are given, indicate high noise levels over continental land masses with corresponding lower levels over ocean regions.

Caruso, J. A.↗

The use of satellite data for regional planning

The experience of the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments in its development of a regional land use inventory from computer processing of LANDSAT 1 digital tapes and the use of those data in the OKI water quality planning program are discussed. A major part of the planning program is the prediction of water quality in rivers and lakes resulting from existing and future land uses. A model has been developed that can predict the flow of sediment, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and organic wastes into major streams. An essential input to this model is an accurate map of land use derived from LANDSAT 1 digital tapes.

Hessling, A. H.↗

An explicit algorithm for a fluid approach to nonlinear optics propagation using splitting and rezoning techniques

The paper presents a three-dimensional analysis of the nonlinear light matter interaction in a hydrodynamic context. It is reported that the resulting equations are a generalization of the Navier-Stokes equations subjected to an internal potential which depends solely upon the fluid density. In addition, three numerical approaches are presented to solve the governing equations using an extension of McCormack predict-corrector scheme. These are a uniform grid, a dynamic rezoned grid, and a splitting technique. It is concluded that the use of adaptive mapping and splitting techniques with McCormack two-level predictor-corrector scheme results in an efficient and reliable code whose storage requirements are modest compared with other second order methods of equal accuracy.

Mattar, F. P.↗