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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗

Constraining the shape of Milky Way satellites with distance gradients

We combine the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey DR8 photometry with Gaia photometry to study the 3D structure of Bootes I, Draco, Ursa Minor, Sextans, and Sculptor dwarf galaxies using blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars as distance indicators. We construct a new colour–absolute magnitude of BHB stars that we use to measure the distance gradients within the body of the dwarf galaxies. We detect a statistically significant non-zero gradient only in Sextans and Sculptor. Through modelling of the gradient and 2D density of the systems by triaxial Plummer models, we find that the distance gradients in both dwarf galaxies are inconsistent with prolate shape, but compatible with oblate or triaxial shapes. In order to explain the observed gradients, oblate models of Sextans and Sculptor need to have a significant intrinsic ellipticity larger than 0.47 for Sextans and 0.46 for Sculptor. Furthermore, the flattened oblate shape may imply a significant anisotropy in velocity distribution in order to be consistent with the lack of significant velocity gradients in these systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Size-dependent stochastic tensile properties in additively manufactured 316L stainless steel

Recent work in metal additive manufacturing (AM) suggests that mechanical properties may vary with feature size; however, these studies do not provide a statistically robust description of this phenomenon, nor do they provide a clear causal mechanism. Because of the huge design freedom afforded by 3D printing, AM parts typically contain a range of feature sizes, with particular interest in smaller features, so the size effect must be well understood in order to make informed design decisions. This work investigates the effect of feature size on the stochastic mechanical performance of laser powder bed fusion tensile specimens. A high-throughput tensile testing method was used to characterize the effect of specimen size on strength, elastic modulus and elongation in a statistically meaningful way. The effective yield strength, ultimate tensile strength and modulus decreased strongly with decreasing specimen size: all three properties were reduced by nearly a factor of two as feature dimensions were scaled down from 6.25 mm to 0.4 mm. Hardness and microstructural observations indicate that this size dependence was not due to an intrinsic change in material properties, but instead the effects of surface roughness on the geometry of the specimens. Finite element analysis using explicit representations of surface topography shows the critical role surface features play in creating stress concentrations that trigger deformation and subsequent fracture. The experimental and finite element results provide the tools needed to make corrections in the design process to more accurately predict the performance of AM components.

316L stainless steel↗

Impact of Gender on Pharmocokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine

Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS), which is commonly experienced by astronauts during space missions. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under IND guidelines. Since information is lacking on the effect of gender on the PK of Scopolamine, we examined gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at three dose levels of 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations as a function of time data were collected from twelve normal healthy human subjects (6 male/6 female) who participated in a fully randomized double blind crossover study. The PK parameters were derived using WinNonlin. Covariate analysis of PK profiles was performed using NONMEN and statistically compared using a likelihood ratio test on the difference of objective function value (OFV). Statistical significance for covariate analysis was set at P<0.05(ΔOFV=3.84). Results: No significant difference in PK parameters between male and female subjects was observed with 0.1 and 0.2 mg doses. However, CL and Vd were significantly different between male and female subjects at the 0.4 mg dose. Results from population covariate modeling analysis indicate that a onecompartment PK model with first-order elimination rate offers best fit for describing INSCOP concentration-time profiles. The inclusion of sex as a covariate enhanced the model fitting (ΔOFV=-4.1) owing to the genderdependent CL and Vd differences after the 0.4 mg dose. Conclusion: Statistical modeling of scopolamine concentration-time data suggests gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine at the high dose level of 0.4 mg. Clearance of the parent compound was significantly faster and the volume of distribution was significantly higher in males than in females, As a result, including gender as a covariate to the pharmacokinetic model of scopolamine offers the best fit for PK modeling of the drug at dose of 0.4 mg or higher.

Putcha, L.↗

Improved thermonuclear rate of 42 Ti( p , γ ) 43 V and its astrophysical implication in the rp process

Context. Accurate 42 Ti(p,γ) 43 V reaction rates are crucial for understanding the nucleosynthesis path of the rapid capture process (rp process) that occurs in X-ray bursts. Aims. We aim to improve the thermonuclear rates of 42 Ti(p,γ) 43 V based on more complete resonance information and a more accurate direct component, together with the recently released nuclear masses data. We also explore the impact of the newly obtained rates on the rp process. Methods. We reevaluated the reaction rate of 42 Ti(p,γ) 43 V by the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. We used a Monte Carlo method to derive the associated uncertainties of new rates. The nucleosynthesis simulations were performed via the NuGrid post-processing code ppn. Results. The new rates differ from previous estimations due to the use of a series of updated resonance parameters and a direct S factor. Compared with the previous results from the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model, which assumes compound nucleus 43 V with a sufficiently high-level density in the energy region of astrophysical interest, large differences exist over the entire temperature region of rp-process interest, up to two orders of magnitude. We consistently calculated the photodisintegration rate using our new nuclear masses via the detailed balance principle, and found the discrepancies among the different reverse rates are much larger than those for the forward rate, up to ten orders of magnitude at the temperature of 10 8 K. Using a trajectory with a peak temperature of 1.95×10 9 K, we performed the rp-process nucleosynthesis simulations to investigate the impact of the new rates. Our calculations show that the adoption of the new forward and reverse rates result in abundance variations for Sc and Ca of 128% and 49%, respectively, compared to the variations for the statistical model rates. On the other hand, the overall abundance pattern is not significantly affected. The results of using new rates also confirm that the rp-process path does not bypass the isotope 43 V. Conclusions. Our study found that the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model is inappropriate to the reaction rate evaluation for 42 Ti(p,γ) 43 V. The adoption of the new rates confirms that the reaction path of 42 Ti(p,γ) 43 V(p,γ) 44 Cr(β + ) 44 V is a key branch of the rp process in X-ray bursts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Convolutional neural network identification of galaxy post-mergers in UNIONS using IllustrisTNG

ABSTRACT The Canada–France Imaging Survey (CFIS) will consist of deep, high-resolution r-band imaging over ∼5000 deg2 of the sky, representing a first-rate opportunity to identify recently merged galaxies. Because of the large number of galaxies in CFIS, we investigate the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) for automated merger classification. Training samples of post-merger and isolated galaxy images are generated from the IllustrisTNG simulation processed with the observational realism code RealSim. The CNN’s overall classification accuracy is 88 per cent, remaining stable over a wide range of intrinsic and environmental parameters. We generate a mock galaxy survey from IllustrisTNG in order to explore the expected purity of post-merger samples identified by the CNN. Despite the CNN’s good performance in training, the intrinsic rarity of post-mergers leads to a sample that is only ∼6 per cent pure when the default decision threshold is used. We investigate trade-offs in purity and completeness with a variable decision threshold and find that we recover the statistical distribution of merger-induced star formation rate enhancements. Finally, the performance of the CNN is compared with both traditional automated methods and human classifiers. The CNN is shown to outperform Gini–M20 and asymmetry methods by an order of magnitude in post-merger sample purity on the mock survey data. Although the CNN outperforms the human classifiers on sample completeness, the purity of the post-merger sample identified by humans is frequently higher, indicating that a hybrid approach to classifications may be an effective solution to merger classifications in large surveys.

Bickley, Robert W.↗

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering at the European Spallation Source

The European Spallation Source (ESS), presently well on its way to completion, will soon provide the most intense neutron beams for multi-disciplinary science. Fortuitously, it will also generate the largest pulsed neutrino flux suitable for the detection of Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS), a process recently measured for the first time at ORNL’s Spallation Neutron Source. We describe innovative detector technologies maximally able to profit from the order-of-magnitude increase in neutrino flux provided by the ESS, along with their sensitivity to a rich particle physics phenomenology accessible through high-statistics, precision CEνNS measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Search for e → τ charged lepton flavor violation at the EIC with the ECCE detector

The recently approved Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) will provide a unique new opportunity for searches of charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) and other new physics scenarios. In contrast to the e ↔ μ CLFV transition for which very stringent limits exist, there is still a relatively large discovery space for the e → τ CLFV transition, potentially to be explored by the EIC. Here, with the latest detector design of ECCE (EIC Comprehensive Chromodynamics Experiment) and projected integral luminosity of the EIC, we find the τ-leptons created in the DIS process ep → τX are expected to be identified with high efficiency. A first ECCE simulation study, restricted to the 3-prong τ-decay mode and with limited statistics for the Standard Model backgrounds, estimates that the EIC will be able to improve the current exclusion limit on e → τ CLFV by an order of magnitude. As a result, the very high vertex resolution of the ECCE detector configuration plays a critical role in τ identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Observations of the Cabibbo-Suppressed decays $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 , $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + and the Cabibbo-Favored decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + *

Using electron-positron annihilation data samples corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb -1 , collected by the BESIII detector in the energy region between $4599.53$ $MeV$ and $4698.82$ $MeV$ we report the first observations of the Cabibbo-suppressed decays $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 , $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + , and the Cabibbo-favored decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + with statistical significances of $7.9σ$, $7.8σ$, and Misplaced &, respectively. The branching fractions of these decays are measured to be $\mathcal{B}$($Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 ) = ($0.64 ± 0.09 ± 0.02$)%, $\mathcal{B}$($Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ - $π$ + ) = ($0.45 ± 0.07 ± 0.03$)%, and $\mathcal{B}$ $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$K$ - $π$ + $π$ + ) = ($1.90 ± 0.08 ± 0.09$)% where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. We find that the branching fraction of the decay $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$$π$ + $π$ 0 is about one order of magnitude higher than that of $Λ^{+}_{c}$ → $\mathcal{n}$ $π$ + .

$Λ^{+}_{c}$ baryon↗

EI_MS_ML

The unambiguous identification of compounds from their electron ionization mass (EI-MS) spectra remains a significant unsolved problem in the field of metabolomics and analytical chemistry as a whole. Typically EI-MS spectra are compared using various mathematical operations that convert the spectral similarity or differences into a distance-like metric that roughly approximates the similarity of any two spectra. A commonly used metric for this is the cosine similarity metric which has values close to one for very similar spectra and a value of zero for very dissimilar spectra; however, no metric is perfect. Due to the prevalence of structurally-similar compounds such as isomers and the prevalence of certain fragmentation patterns across structurally-dissimilar compounds, the unambiguous assignment of EI-MS spectra compounds remains difficult. Frequently, querying an observed EI-MS spectrum against a large database such as the NIST17 library yields multiple possible assignments requiring the end user to distinguish between multiple high scoring hits, or multiple low scoring hits while keeping in mind that the correct hit may not be in the database at all. Although techniques such as orthogonal information from techniques such as chromatography can greatly aid in unambiguous assignment, this also requires more complicated experimental designs and access to more complicated analytical instrumentation. Substructures can be trivially detected and represented as strings using a previously published technique called node coloring from a known chemical structure. However, for experimentally-derived EI-MS spectra this information must be derived from the spectra itself (i.e., because we do not know what compound it represents). To achieve this, the software uses techniques from the field of machine learning and a large training dataset of EI-MS spectra corresponding to known structures annotated with substructure strings, to build models that can predict the presence of a given chemical substructure from an EI-MS spectrum directly.If these predictions are of high-quality (i.e., are unlikely to be false positives), the presence of one or more predicted substructures can be used to constrain the number of possible hits for a query spectrum. Mathematically, this restriction could be expressed in many forms, but the most straight-forward implementation is to weight the cosine similarity of a query spectrum and a plausible database match with a Tanimoto-like coefficient based on the ratio of the number of substructures predicted to the number of substructures present in the potential database hit. Determining which combination of models best reduces assignment ambiguity will be achieved using a combination of manual curation and optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms. This software will perform all the steps necessary to construct said models from a training dataset and evaluate them using a holdout dataset. Various statistical analyses can be performed to determine if this approach does decrease assignment ambiguity. For example, if this approach works, on average, the rank-order of the correct assignment for the holdout set of EI-MS spectra should decrease and the weighted cosine similarities for most of the possible matches in the database should be better than the unweighted cosine similarities. Furthermore, this same pipeline can be used on real experimental data to generate less ambiguous assignments.

Mitchell, Joshua↗

Plasma kinetic processes in a strong d.c. magnetic field

The electrostatic guiding center approximation is used to describe the kinetic processes of a strongly magnetized tenuous plasma in two dimensions, in both the fluid and charged rod descriptions. The basic kinetic description of the plasma is in terms of the statistically-distributed Fourier coefficients associated with the velocity and enstrophy (charge density) fields. It is shown that the system exhibits a tendency to long range order characterized by macroscopic vorticity concentrations comparable in size to that of the system. These types of structure have historically been called convection cells and can be quite efficient at transporting particles transverse to a magnetic field.

Montgomery, D.↗

The manifold of globular clusters

A multivariate statistical analysis of a large data set on the Galactic globular clusters indicates that at least 4 (possibly 5 or 6) parameters are needed in order to describe fully the global properties of these objects. Some nontrivial correlations are present in the data, and are described in the text. One of them is the scaling relation between the luminosity and the central velocity dispersion, whose possible physical origin is briefly discussed. Many of the systematic trends found in the data suggest that dynamical effects played an important or even a dominant role in determining the present-day global properties of globular clusters.

Djorgovski, S.↗

Compressible Boundary Layer Predictions at High Reynolds Number using Hybrid LES/RANS Methods

Simulations of compressible boundary layer flow at three different Reynolds numbers (Re(sub delta) = 5.59x10(exp 4), 1.78x10(exp 5), and 1.58x10(exp 6) are performed using a hybrid large-eddy/Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes method. Variations in the recycling/rescaling method, the higher-order extension, the choice of primitive variables, the RANS/LES transition parameters, and the mesh resolution are considered in order to assess the model. The results indicate that the present model can provide good predictions of the mean flow properties and second-moment statistics of the boundary layers considered. Normalized Reynolds stresses in the outer layer are found to be independent of Reynolds number, similar to incompressible turbulent boundary layers.

Choi, Jung-Il↗

The Range Safety Debris Catalog Analysis in Preparation for the Pad Abort One Flight Test

The Pad Abort One flight test of the Orion Abort Flight Test Program is currently under development with the goal of demonstrating the capability of the Launch Abort System. In the event of a launch failure, this system will propel the Crew Exploration Vehicle to safety. An essential component of this flight test is range safety, which ensures the security of range assets and personnel. A debris catalog analysis was done as part of a range safety data package delivered to the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico where the test will be conducted. The analysis discusses the consequences of an overpressurization of the Abort Motor. The resulting structural failure was assumed to create a debris field of vehicle fragments that could potentially pose a hazard to the range. A statistical model was used to assemble the debris catalog of potential propellant fragments. Then, a thermodynamic, energy balance model was applied to the system in order to determine the imparted velocity to these propellant fragments. This analysis was conducted at four points along the flight trajectory to better understand the failure consequences over the entire flight. The methods used to perform this analysis are outlined in detail and the corresponding results are presented and discussed.

Kutty, Prasad M.↗

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗