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TPSAS-NF1676L-31816-DND

A net-centric air space system or architecture is a continuously evolving environment in which people, devices, information, and services are interconnected via a communications network. Inherent in this type of domain is an overwhelming amount of various forms of data that can provide decision makers, pilots, and air traffic controllers with superior awareness concerning events and conditions within it. Assisting a flight crew in gathering, organizing, and disseminating these data expeditiously is imperative and calls for implementation of technologies such as Increasingly Autonomous Systems designed to support future flight operations conducted within a net-centric national air space system.

Vincent E Houston↗

An Analysis of Depolarization Streaks for Anticipating Lightning in Thundersnow

Infrequent lightning events, particularly in stratiform precipitation, present a unique decision-support challenge to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and core partners. Anticipating thundersnow events, which are rare compared to warm season lightning, are especially difficult to anticipate due to slanted updrafts within the comma-head region of a mid-latitude cyclone. Researchers and operational forecasters have observed depolarization streaks in differential reflectivity (ZDR) as a result of ice crystal layers prior to thundersnow initiation. These depolarization streaks form as a result of ice crystals aligning themselves with enhancements in the electric field in stratiform precipitation and are associated with ZDR values near zero. During the 7 March 2018 winter storm, a teacher in New Jersey was struck by lightning while dismissing students and depolarization streaks were observed in weather radar observations. Therefore, it is advantageous to examine depolarization streaks in ZDR to determine whether it can be used to anticipate lightning potential in winter-time events. Multiple events will be analyzed using the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) to determine if thundersnow flashes coincide with ZDR depolarization streaks in weather radars. This study also expands on collaboration between the NWS Huntsville Forecast Office and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program to determine how depolarization streaks can be used operationally to anticipate lightning within stratiform regions. Preliminary work has indicated noticeable potential in correlating depolarization streak as a precursor to thundersnow flashes in a variety of geographical regions.

Autumn Millard↗

Strategies for Quantifying Human Space Flight Performance in the Crew Health and Performance System

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center is planning a customized approach to quantify human spaceflight performance changes with respect to changes to the CHP system functions and capabilities. Using the Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) initiated by NASA’s Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) [1], the team is surveying potential candidate models and novel strategies that generate metrics suitable for supporting decision making related to how the CHP system may influence human system performance risk. One such investigation includes classic Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. Traditionally, HRA methods estimate the occurrence of human errors and their impact on the success of an activity when designing and operating a system. While humans perceive, interpret, decide on, and carry out a course of action, the factors affecting performance and error likelihood are commonly referred to as performance shaping factors (PSFs). Originally developed to alleviate safety concerns related to nuclear power plant operations, HRA methods such as THERP [2] and CREAM [3] dismantle an activity into tasks, requiring elemental steps to be executed, and assess their failure due to predefined PSFs. In this study, we compare generic HRA methods and those that incorporate some human spaceflight aspects, such as sleep conditions (SCREAM [4]), with respect to how they may be adopted to capture performance with an intention to mitigate detrimental outcomes elucidated by the HSRB DAGs. We suggest strategies to quantify astronaut performance specific to spaceflight activities and illustrate how such concepts may help in optimizing the CHP system capabilities with respect to Artemis missions.

dag↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore Wind Cost of Energy (Poster)

No matter the source, offshore wind energy plant cost estimates are significantly higher than for land-based projects. For instance, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) review on the 2010 cost of wind energy found baseline cost estimates for onshore wind energy systems to be 71 dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh), versus 225 $/MWh for offshore systems. There are many ways that innovation can be used to reduce the high costs of offshore wind energy. However, the use of such innovation impacts the cost of energy because of the highly coupled nature of the system. For example, the deployment of multimegawatt turbines can reduce the number of turbines, thereby reducing the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with vessel acquisition and use. On the other hand, larger turbines may require more specialized vessels and infrastructure to perform the same operations, which could result in higher costs. To better understand the full impact of a design decision on offshore wind energy system performance and cost, a system analysis approach is needed. In 2011-2012, NREL began development of a wind energy systems engineering software tool to support offshore wind energy system analysis. The tool combines engineering and cost models to represent an entire offshore wind energy plant and to perform system cost sensitivity analysis and optimization. Initial results were collected by applying the tool to conduct a sensitivity analysis on a baseline offshore wind energy system using 5-MW and 6-MW NREL reference turbines. Results included information on rotor diameter, hub height, power rating, and maximum allowable tip speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Tool to Incorporate Non-Energy Impacts in Energy Efficiency Investment Decision Making for Firms

Energy efficiency is a key demand-side strategy for sustainability, recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. The increased focus on decarbonization and the requirement for efficiency to enable electrification, another decarbonization pillar, due to the spark spread between natural gas and electricity prices, make energy efficiency increasingly relevant. Still, industries face challenges in adopting energy efficiency measures. Researchers have long found a gap in adoption of even those measures with a profitable net present value, attributed to lack of strategic value among other barriers (see for rigorous exploration and taxonomy). One solution to facilitate energy efficiency projects is the inclusion of non-energy impacts, as this has been shown to double potential deployment of such projects at system level. Energy efficiency can provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, from decreased pollution to enhanced productivity. The inclusion of these benefits in decision making assessments faces hurdles due to inconsistency of ancillary benefits across projects, difficulties in quantifying impacts and the need for additional measurement to quantify them. The decision-making tools to support this have been designed primarily for the European context. We begin with a stakeholder engagement process to better characterize the U.S. decision making process surrounding adoption of energy efficiency investments. Characterization of non-energy impacts has developed substantially over recent decades. Cagno et al. provided a framework for studying the applicability of these impacts to energy efficiency projects, listing 120 key performance indicators focused mainly on reductions of costs/harms. Other researchers have included impacts on the strategic and revenue side that can be merged into this framework as well. We seek a tractable set of impacts that can be included in a decision-making tool in the US, and as such are well suited to US industry, management and decision making processes. We also seek to understand how to best quantify or characterize these impacts. This work will demonstrate the results of a survey conducted among US manufacturing industry decision makers to assess the decision making landscape of stakeholders as well as the most relevant performance indicators for energy efficiency projects.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

The Habitat Demonstration Unit System Integration

The Lunar Surface System Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) will require the project team to integrate a variety of contributions from NASA centers and potential outside collaborators and poses a challenge in integrating these disparate efforts into a cohesive architecture. To accomplish the development of the HDU from conception in June 2009 to rollout for operations in July 2010, the HDU team is using several strategies to mitigate risks and bring the separate efforts together. First, a set of design standards is being developed to define the interfaces between the various systems of HDU and to the payloads, such as the Geology Lab, that those systems will support. Scheduled activities such as early fit-checks and the utilization of a Habitat avionics test bed prior to equipment installation into HDU. A coordinated effort to establish simplified Computer Aided Design standards and the utilization of a modeling and simulation systems will aid in design and integration concept development. Finally, decision processes on the shell development including the assembly sequence and the transportation have been fleshed out early on HDU to maximize the efficiency of both integration and field operations.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

A Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 19295

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The reprocessing wastes include high-level waste (HLW), so U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was compelled to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980, including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the contamination at the West Valley Site and its potential implications for human health and the environment. The West Valley PPA Model (the Model), developed using the GoldSim modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making with uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-organized contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of HLW resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife are exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion in subsurface air and water, and erosion of the Site. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes that contribute most to overall uncertainty. With this information, the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) can inform defensible decisions regarding remediation of the Site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Human Capabilities Assessments for Autonomous Missions: A Multi-Team Research Effort to Reduce Risk in the Human-System Integration Architecture for Future Deep-Space Missions

In future exploration missions beyond low earth-orbit, crew will have to execute complex operations and respond to off-nominal events, without real-time support from Mission Control. It is anticipated that increased reliance on automated systems, including human-centric vehicle and information architecture, will need to be designed to support the crew; increased risk to performance, health, and safety may occur if these are not implemented appropriately. The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element (HFBP) in the NASA Human Research Program supports research to characterize and mitigate such human health and performance risks, including the Risk of Adverse Outcome Due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA). The HSIA risk addresses the integration of onboard capability and the crew roles and responsibilities necessary to enable the crew to respond effectively and efficiently in the increasingly autonomous mission operations environment. In 2017, HFBP released the “Human Capabilities Assessments for Autonomous Missions” (HCAAM) research topic to address HSIA related questions. HCAAM is a major NASA research effort that has assembled a multidisciplinary team from seven institutions to work closely with design and engineering efforts on research towards developing and refining human performance standards, guidelines and automation tools. The scientific focus is on quantitative assessment of human capabilities relevant to future deep-space missions during which earth/spacecraft communication is so delayed and intermittent that the crew must be able to function autonomously. The integrated strategy of the HCAAM project characterizes human capabilities and limitations related to potential performance decrements during long duration exploration mission spaceflight as relevant to both routine and complex task performance; defines system characteristics that reduce the likelihood or impact of potential decrements in human performance capabilities; performs integrated assessment of intelligent system responses within the context of an operational environment with relevant NASA tools, systems, and data structures in order to determine positive or negative interactions and validate recommended approaches; and proposes specific updates to existing standards and guidelines for inclusion in NASA handbooks for the design of future spacecraft intelligent systems that provide crew performance assessment/feedback, and to also serve as decision-support aids for the onboard crew (i.e., NASA-STD-3001, and NASA/SP-Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH)). The scientific research vectors being addressed by the seven HCAAM teams include: - crew task performance (accuracy, efficiency) (crew + automation) - crew performance (accuracy, efficiency) - crew Situation Awareness - procedure design and multi-modal enhancement - concurrent tasking (mixed manual + some level of autonomy) - task handover - crew self-planning and time-lining - task design - trust in automation, real-time calibration - human multi-sensory feedback and guidance - human trust in on-board software-based intelligent assistants - virtual assistants The presentation will highlight plans and progress made in each of these research areas as well as the methods by which surrogate astronaut crews in the NASA JSC HERA spaceflight analog facility will function as human test subjects for all of the HCAAM research projects.

HCAAM VNSCOR↗

Supporting Building Portfolio Investment and Policy Decision Making through an Integrated Building Utility Data Platform

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act stimulus funding of 2009 for smart grid projects resulted in the tripling of smart meters deployment. In 2012, the Green Button initiative provided utility customers with access to their real-time1 energy usage. The availability of finely granular data provides an enormous potential for energy data analytics and energy benchmarking. The sheer volume of time-series utility data from a large number of buildings also poses challenges in data collection, quality control, and database management for rigorous and meaningful analyses. In this paper, we will describe a building portfolio-level data analytics tool for operational optimization, business investment and policy assessment using 15-minute to monthly intervals utility data. The analytics tool is developed on top of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, an open source software application that manages energy performance data of large groups of buildings. To support the significantly large volume of granular interval data, we integrated a parallel time-series database to the existing relational database. The time-series database improves on the current utility data input, focusing on real-time data collection, storage, analytics and data quality control. The fully integrated data platform supports APIs for utility apps development by third party software developers. These apps will provide actionable intelligence for building owners and facilities managers. Unlike a commercial system, this platform is an open source platform funded by the U.S. Government, accessible to the public, researchers and other developers, to support initiatives in reducing building energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensing Electrical Networks Securely & Economically (SENSE)

The growing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) like battery energy storage systems and roof top solar/PV and the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), the electric grid is undergoing a major transformation with elevated stress on legacy grid assets. Despite a lot of expenditure to address these challenges, both in dollars and manpower, utilities have not been able to receive the value that was promised. The gains have been most visible at the transmission and substation level, especially where the main objective was improving operational and economic efficiency for the utility. Improving visibility and control at a few select points enhances the existing and established paradigm of centralized command and control. With changing load patterns, load types and the overall transition to an “active grid”, the centralized control and coordination paradigm gets challenged. To address the challenges, a new architecture and mechanism is needed, one that supports decentralized control and decision making, extracting value streams at the grid edge, particularly as the changes are fueled by transitions occurring in the distribution system. To address this, a communications and data processing platform, “GAMMA” was developed and demonstrated through the project. At the heart of the platform, are distributed, intelligent edge nodes with sensing and compute capabilities, that can record and analyze information locally. They are embedded in sensors and actuators specific to different distribution system applications. Phase 1 of the project focused on developing novel sensor technology that can be used for monitoring utility pole top distribution transformers. The sensors were designed with the objective of being low-cost, communicating with the GAMMA cloud using novel “delay-tolerant” networking using Bluetooth and a secure mobile application. They were non-intrusive in nature so that they can be installed quickly in the field, resulting in overall low cost of deployment and operations. Following the successful completion of Phase 1, the team manufactured 100 units for a field demonstration in Phase 2. The field demonstration was carried out on two real feeder systems with the local utility partner. In total, 100 sensors were installed and operated over a period of 6 months in the state of Georgia. The platform is operational end to end, with the cloud infrastructure deployed on a distributed, serverless environment that can serve multiple data streams, an analytics engine and a portal to securely view the data from multiple assets. The data collected through the GAMMA Mobile Phone app showcased the viability of the novel delay tolerant networking architecture, and the data processing algorithms developed through the course of the project, were successful in extracting important information about the overall network, improving the utility’s visibility and situational awareness in the distribution feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Workload-Matched Adaptive Automation Support of Air Traffic Controller Information Processing Stages

Adaptive automation (AA) has been explored as a solution to the problems associated with human-automation interaction in supervisory control environments. However, research has focused on the performance effects of dynamic control allocations of early stage sensory and information acquisition functions. The present research compares the effects of AA to the entire range of information processing stages of human operators, such as air traffic controllers. The results provide evidence that the effectiveness of AA is dependent on the stage of task performance (human-machine system information processing) that is flexibly automated. The results suggest that humans are better able to adapt to AA when applied to lower-level sensory and psychomotor functions, such as information acquisition and action implementation, as compared to AA applied to cognitive (analysis and decision-making) tasks. The results also provide support for the use of AA, as compared to completely manual control. These results are discussed in terms of implications for AA design for aviation.

Kaber, David B.↗

WINS. Market Simulation Tool for Facilitating Wind Energy Integration

Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practices can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision results are often text-based demonstrations. WINS includes a powerful visualization tool and user interface capability for transmission analyses, planning, and assessment, which will be of great interest to power market participants, power system planners and operators, and state and federal regulatory entities; and (3) WINS can handle extended transmission models for wind integration studies. WINS models include limitations on transmission flow as well as bus voltage for analyzing power system states. The existing decision tools often consider transmission flow constraints (dc power flow) alone which could result in the over-utilization of existing resources when analyzing wind integration. WINS can be used to assist power market participants including transmission companies, independent system operators, power system operators in vertically integrated utilities, wind energy developers, and regulatory agencies to analyze economics, security, and reliability of various options for wind integration including transmission upgrades and the planning of new transmission facilities. WINS can also be used by industry for the offline training of reliability and operation personnel when analyzing wind integration uncertainties, identifying critical spots in power system operation, analyzing power system vulnerabilities, and providing credible decisions for examining operation and planning options for wind integration. Researches in this project on wind integration included (1) Development of WINS; (2) Transmission Congestion Analysis in the Eastern Interconnection; (3) Analysis of 2030 Large-Scale Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern Interconnection; (4) Large-scale Analysis of 2018 Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern U.S. Interconnection. The research resulted in 33 papers, 9 presentations, 9 PhD degrees, 4 MS degrees, and 7 awards. The education activities in this project on wind energy included (1) Wind Energy Training Facility Development; (2) Wind Energy Course Development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and evaluate margin recovery strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project In Complex Terrain Near the Columbia River Gorge

In 2014 a multi-institution team led by Vaisala, Inc. was selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) to partner with multiple DOE and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) laboratories on a project designed to improve the quality of wind power forecasts in areas of complex terrain. This was the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) funded by DOE and it extended from late 2014 through the middle of 2018. It encompassed an 18-month observational field campaign, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development, extensive analysis of data and NWP output, and the creation of decision support tool algorithms to convey forecast information to end users in the wind industry. WFIP2 focused on improvements to the representation of near-surface and boundary-layer physics in NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Improvements to HRRR, which is run operationally over the continental United States, benefit the wind industry in multiple ways. Forecasts from the operational HRRR are used directly by wind power forecast vendors and the operators of wind plants. In addition, because HRRR is built using the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, improvements to its parameterizations become available to commercial and research institutions using WRF for a myriad of purposes. The geographic area studied by WFIP2 was a region of the Columbia River basin located to the east of the Cascade Mountains between Oregon and Washington. Home to over 6 GW of installed capacity for wind energy production, this area also hosts a variety of atmospheric phenomena either unique to or augmented by complex topography. This makes it an attractive test-bed for the analysis of wind forecast in complex terrain, though results found are should be applicable in any area of topographic complexity. WFIP2 succeeded as a collaborative effort, and while this report focuses on the activities of the team led by Vaisala, the work described here is part of a larger whole. The Vaisala team accomplished a number of specific tasks as described in this report, while also contributing to this larger effort.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future

This report is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The main insights from this study can also help inform policy development and investment decisions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Identification of terms to define unconstrained air transportation demands

The factors involved in the evaluation of unconstrained air transportation systems were carefully analyzed. By definition an unconstrained system is taken to be one in which the design can employ innovative and advanced concepts no longer limited by present environmental, social, political or regulatory settings. Four principal evaluation criteria are involved: (1) service utilization, based on the operating performance characteristics as viewed by potential patrons; (2) community impacts, reflecting decisions based on the perceived impacts of the system; (3) technological feasibility, estimating what is required to reduce the system to practice; and (4) financial feasibility, predicting the ability of the concepts to attract financial support. For each of these criteria, a set of terms or descriptors was identified, which should be used in the evaluation to render it complete. It is also demonstrated that these descriptors have the following properties: (a) their interpretation may be made by different groups of evaluators; (b) their interpretations and the way they are used may depend on the stage of development of the system in which they are used; (c) in formulating the problem, all descriptors should be addressed independent of the evaluation technique selected.

Jacobson, I. D.↗