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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining the tensile strength of fuel surrogate TRISO-coated particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A novel micro tensile sample fabrication technique for determining the tensile strength of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer -IPyC interlayer regions of surrogate (ZrO2) TRISO fuel particle layers was refined and implemented. Copper micro tensile samples served as baseline materials to verify the methods used. Tensile tests performed in this study, while limited in number, were analyzed using standard and Weibull statistics. As expected, the buffer layer was weakest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 138.70 MPa, and the IPyC layer samples, were strongest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 189.74 MPa. In the buffer -IPyC interface samples, all breaks occurred in the buffer region, though the average ultimate tensile strength of the samples, 159.80 MPa, was between the pure buffer and IPyC samples. These results suggest the interlayer region has unique properties, perhaps associated with pyrocarbon infiltration into the buffer layer during particle coating. All interlayer samples fractured within the buffer side; however, the stress strain behavior of some of these samples resembled the behavior of the IPyC layer samples. Here, the buffer and IPyC layer strengths had a normal distribution under Weibull analysis, while the interlayer region had a Rayleigh distribution. Further testing is needed to clarify both the standard and Weibull statistical results

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Status of the OECD/NEA Watts Bar unit 1 benchmark and calculations of local reactor core power data of the Zero Power physics tests

The paper aims to provide an update on the status of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) / the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Watts Bar 1 (WB1) Multi-Physics Multi-Cycle depletion benchmark and the results associated with Exercise 1. The benchmark relies on the set of benchmark progression problems developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) for the Virtual Environment for Reactor (VERA), which are based on real plant design and operational data. The OECD/NEA TVA WB1 benchmark is designed for validation of both traditional and novel high-fidelity multi-physics codes to analyze Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) depletion cycles. The activities are conducted under the Expert Group on Reactor Systems Multi-Physics (EGMUP) at NEA/OECD. In this work, we analyze Exercise 1 of the benchmark: stand-alone Three-Dimensional (3D) neutronics at Start-up Zero Power Physics Test (ZPPT) at Hot Zero Power Conditions (HZP) and the resulting power maps. The code used to model the exercise is the continuous energy Monte Carlo code Serpent 2.1.31 along with the nuclear data library ENDF/B-VII.1. Serpent results are compared with the high-fidelity deterministic code MPACT, which is part of VERA. The paper presents three selected results from power calculations required output. The results compared are the normalized axially integrated radial core power maps, the normalized axial averaged core power shapes, and the normalized core hottest and coldest assemblies radial power maps. The Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) between Serpent and MPACT is 0.51 % for the axially integrated radial core power map, 1.41 % for the axial averaged core power shape, 2.42 % for the hottest assembly axial power shape, 0.88 % for the coldest assembly axial integrated hottest assembly radial pin power map, and 0.17 % for the axially integrated coldest assembly radial pin power map. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heritable gene editing in tomato through viral delivery of isopentenyl transferase and single-guide RNAs to latent axillary meristematic cells

Realizing the full potential of genome editing for crop improvement has been slow due to inefficient methods for reagent delivery and the reliance on tissue culture for creating gene-edited plants. RNA viral vectors offer an alternative approach for delivering gene engineering reagents and bypassing the tissue culture requirement. Viruses, however, are often excluded from the shoot apical meristem, making virus-mediated gene editing inefficient in some species. Here, we developed effective approaches for generating gene-edited shoots in Cas9-expressing transgenic tomato plants using RNA virus-mediated delivery of single-guide RNAs (sgRNAs). RNA viral vectors expressing sgRNAs were either delivered to leaves or sites near axillary meristems. Trimming of the apical and axillary meristems induced new shoots to form from edited somatic cells. To further encourage the induction of shoots, we used RNA viral vectors to deliver sgRNAs along with the cytokinin biosynthesis gene, isopentenyl transferase. Abundant, phenotypically normal, gene-edited shoots were induced per infected plant with single and multiplexed gene edits fixed in the germline. The use of viruses to deliver both gene editing reagents and developmental regulators overcomes the bottleneck in applying virus-induced gene editing to dicotyledonous crops such as tomato and reduces the dependency on tissue culture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ab initio calculation of the β-decay spectrum of 6 He

Here, we calculate the β spectrum in the decay of 6 He using quantum Monte Carlo methods with nuclear interactions derived from chiral effective field theory and consistent weak vector and axial currents. We work at second order in the multipole expansion, retaining terms suppressed by O(q 2 /m$^{2}_{π}$), where q denotes low-energy scales such as the reaction’s Q value or the electron energy, and m π is the pion mass. We go beyond the impulse approximation by including the effects of two-body vector and axial currents. We estimate the theoretical error on the spectrum by using four potential models in the Norfolk family of local two- and three-nucleon interactions, which have different cutoffs, fit two-nucleon data up to different energies, and use different observables to determine the couplings in the three-body force. We find the theoretical uncertainty on the β spectrum, normalized by the total rate, to be well below the permille level, and to receive contributions of comparable size from first- and second-order corrections in the multipole expansion. We consider corrections to the β decay spectrum induced by beyond-standard-model charged-current interactions in the standard model effective field theory, with and without sterile neutrinos, and discuss the sensitivity of the next generation of experiments to these interactions.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2023

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrolysis-Induced Morphology Evolution of Linear and Bottlebrush Block Copolymers in Thin Films with Acid Vapor or Photoacid Generators

The self-assembly of high-χ low-N block copolymers (BCPs) can give patterns with sub-10 nm full pitch, serving as a promising alternative to photolithographic methods. Here, in this work, we synthesized poly(solketal methacrylate)-block-polystyrene copolymers, PSM-b-PS, with various volume ratios of the two blocks. After hydrolysis of the PSM block into poly(glycerol monomethacrylate), PGM, the BCPs had both lamellar and cylindrical microdomain morphologies in the bulk phase and in thin films. In addition to our previously developed solid-state hydrolysis strategy involving trifluoroacetic acid vapor, we developed a new photoinduced solid-state hydrolysis using photoacid generators, PAGs, embedded within the polymer films. After exposure to UV followed by a postexposure baking or solvent vapor annealing, the BCPs transitioned from the disordered, phase-mixed state into laterally ordered cylindrical patterns. In comparison to linear BCPs that rely on a random copolymer layer to modify interfacial interactions with the substrate to promote an orientation of the microdomains normal to the interface, we found that the microdomains in bottlebrush multiblock copolymers oriented normal to the interface absent substrate modification due to the chain architecture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection with flow-based fast calorimeter simulators

Recently, several normalizing flow-based deep generative models have been proposed to accelerate the simulation of calorimeter showers. Using caloflow as an example, we show that these models can simultaneously perform unsupervised anomaly detection with no additional training cost. As a demonstration, we consider electromagnetic showers initiated by one (background) or multiple (signal) photons. The caloflow model is designed to generate single-photon showers, but it also provides access to the shower likelihood. We use this likelihood as an anomaly score and study the showers tagged as being unlikely. As expected, the tagger struggles when the signal photons are nearly collinear but is otherwise effective. This approach is complementary to a supervised classifier trained on only specific signal models using the same low-level calorimeter inputs. While the supervised classifier is also highly effective at unseen signal models, the unsupervised method is more sensitive in certain regions, and, thus, we expect that the ultimate performance will require a combination of these approaches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Crack tip microplasticity mediated by microstructure gradients

Abstract Traditional fracture theories infer damage at cracks (local field) by surveying loading conditions away from cracks (far field). This approach has been successful in predicting ductile fracture, but it normally assumes isotropic and homogeneous materials. However, myriads of manufacturing procedures induce heterogeneous microstructural gradients that can affect the accuracy of traditional fracture models. This work presents a microstructure‐sensitive finite element approach to explore the shielding effects of grain size and crystallographic orientation gradients on crack tip microplasticity and blunting. A dislocation density‐based crystal plasticity model conveys texture evolution, grain size effects, and directional hardening by computing the constraint from dislocation structures. The results demonstrate that the microstructure can act as a buffer between the local and far fields that affects the crack tip microplasticity variability. For nominal opening loading, grain size and texture affect the local ductility and induce a non‐negligible multiaxial plastic deformation. Furthermore, driving forces based on measuring displacements away from the crack tip are less affected by the microstructure, which suggests that traditional experimental methods smear out important crack tip variability.

Castelluccio, Gustavo M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systems and methods for crack detection

Embodiments related to systems and methods of crack detection in wafers (e.g., silicon wafers for photovoltaics, photovoltaic devices including silicon wafers) are disclosed. In some embodiments, an apparatus may include a light source configured to illuminate a side of a wafer and a camera directed towards a first face of the wafer. In some embodiments, a long axis of a field of view of the camera may be angled relative to a propagation direction of the light source. In some embodiments, at least a portion of the field of view of the camera is offset from the path of propagation of light emitted from the light source through the wafer. In some embodiments, at least a portion of a light beam may be oriented at a positive non-zero angle relative to the first face of the wafer, and a dimension of the light beam normal to the first face of the wafer may be larger than a thickness of the wafer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fluid dynamic and thermal performance of a slotted cylinder at low Reynolds number

The fluid dynamic and thermal performance of a circular cylinder with a slot parallel to the flow is numerically investigated. The study utilized the semi-implicit finite volume multi-material algorithm MPM-ICE, a component of the Uintah framework. The normalized slot width s/D ranges from 0.1 - 0.3, introducing an additional heat transfer surface area between ~ 10 and ~ 50%, and a mass reduction between ~ 13 and ~ 38% in the cylinder. We assumed two-dimensional incompressible flow and simulated a Reynolds number Re D between 100 and 1000. The slotted cylinders are found to have a total drag force reduction up to ~ 45%, compared to a solid cylinder despite the additional viscous drag force in the slot. Convection heat transfer is enhanced up to ~ 70%. Further, the slotted cylinder performance index, defined as the ratio of the heat rate to the drag force, increases up to maximum of ~ 3, indicating better overall thermal fluid performance. An entropy analysis showed the best performance index occurs at the highest Re D . Correlations for drag coefficient and Nusselt number are proposed along with an entropy optimization method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

PDF Entity Annotation Tool (PEAT)

While different text mining approaches – including the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other machine based methods - continue to expand at a rapid pace, the tools used by researchers to create the labeled datasets required for training, modeling, and evaluation remain rudimentary. Labeled datasets contain the target attributes the machine is going to learn; for example, training an algorithm to delineate between images of a car or truck would generally require a set of images with a quantitative description of the underlying features of each vehicle type. Development of labeled textual data that can be used to build natural language machine learning models for scientific literature is not currently integrated into existing manual workflows used by domain experts. Published literature is rich with important information, such as different types of embedded text, plots, and tables that can all be used as inputs to train ML/natural language processing (NLP) models, when extracted and prepared in machine readable formats. Currently, both normalized data extraction of use to domain experts and extraction to support development of ML/NLP models are labor intensive and cumbersome manual processes. Automatic extraction of data and information from formats such as PDFs that are optimized for layout and human readability, not machine readability. The PDF (Portable Document Format) Entity Annotation Tool (PEAT) was developed with the goal of allowing users to annotate publications within their current print format, while also allowing those annotations to be captured in a machine-readable format. One of the main issues with traditional annotation tools is that they require transforming the PDF into plain text to facilitate the annotation process. While doing so lessens the technical challenges of annotating data, the user loses all structure and provenance that was inherent in the underlying PDF. Also, textual data extraction from PDFs can be an error prone process. Challenges include identifying sequential blocks of text and a multitude of document formats (multiple columns, font encodings, etc.). As a result of these challenges, using existing tools for development of NLP/ML models directly from PDFs is difficult because the generated outputs are not interoperable. We created a system that allows annotations to be completed on the original PDF document structure, with no plain text extraction. The result is an application that allows for easier and more accurate annotations. In addition, by including a feature that grants the user the ability to easily create a schema, we have developed a system that can be used to annotate text for different domain-centric schemas of relevance to subject matter experts. Different knowledge domains require distinct schemas and annotation tags to support machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use Machine Learning to Improve Burnup Measurement in Pebble Bed Reactors

Advanced pebble bed reactor (PBR) designs post new challenges in material control and accountancy (MC&A) because the fuel materials, distributed in many discrete pebbles, are continuously circulated through the reactor core and the refueling path compared to the bulk fuel assembly design in conventional reactors, e.g., light water reactors. In pebble bed reactors, there are hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles in the reactor core during the normal operation, and the burnup of each pebble is measured when ejected from the core. Accurate burnup measurement is an important step in material control and spent fuel disposition. The measurement is usually based on detection of radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over irradiation in the core. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 154 Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of pebbles undergoing burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lift Equivalence and Cancellation for Airfoil Surge–Pitch–Plunge Oscillations

A NACA 0018 airfoil in freestream velocity is oscillated in longitudinal, transverse, and angle-of-attack directions with respect to the freestream velocity, known as surge, plunge, and pitch. The lift-based equivalence method introduces phase shifts between these three motions to construct in-phase sinusoidal components for maximum lift, waveform construction. Lift cancellation is also determined with the exact negative pitch and plunge motion amplitudes found from the equivalence method to achieve out-of-phase wave destruction. Lift cancellation occurs when a combination of these motions is sought to obtain a constant lift magnitude throughout the oscillation cycle. To achieve both equivalence and cancellation of lift, a prescribed pure pitch amplitude through the Theodorsen theory equates the corresponding equivalent plunge amplitude and pitch–plunge phase shift. These Theodorsen, linear superposition findings of pitch–plunge are leveraged toward the Greenberg theory to determine a closed-form, surge–pitch–plunge solution through the addition of a surge–plunge phase shift and optimal surge amplitude for lift cancellation. The lift cancellation surge–pitch–plunge amplitudes define the equivalence amplitude investigated here and theoretically limit the experiment to combinations of the first lift harmonic of the Greenberg theory. The analytical results are then compared with experimental lift force measurements and dye visualization. Finally, the normalized lift differences due to unsteady wake and boundary-layer behavior are examined to explore the extents of the Greenberg theory for these cases of lift-based equivalence and cancellation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the morphology of the gamma-ray galactic centre excess

ABSTRACT The characteristics of the galactic centre excess (GCE) emission observed in gamma-ray energies – especially the morphology of the GCE – remain a hotly debated subject. The manner in which the dominant diffuse gamma-ray background is modelled has been claimed to have a determining effect on the preferred morphology. In this work, we compare two distinct approaches to the galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission background: the first approach models this emission through templates calculated from a sequence of well-defined astrophysical assumptions, while the second approach divides surrogates for the background gamma-ray emission into cylindrical galactocentric rings with free independent normalizations. At the latitudes that we focus on, we find that the former approach works better, and that the overall best fit is obtained for an astrophysically motivated fit when the GCE follows the morphology expected of dark matter annihilation. Quantitatively, the improvement compared with the best ring-based fits is roughly 6500 in the χ2 and roughly 4000 in the log of the Bayesian evidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Functional Surface Coating to Enhance the Stability of LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2

Parasitic reactions are responsible for continuous performance loss during the normal operation and storage of lithium-ion batteries, particularly for those using nickel-rich cathode materials. Among many contributors, residual Li 2 CO 3 on the surface of nickel-rich cathodes plays a detrimental role in promoting parasitic reactions, and hence accelerates the performance loss of those cathode materials. In this work, a wet impregnation process was utilized to convert the detrimental Li 2 CO 3 and LiOH impurities into a beneficial functional surface coating comprising phosphates. Specifically, hydro-phosphates were used as the functional surface modification agents to mitigate the detrimental effect of surface residuals. The best electrochemical performance was achieved by modifying LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 with a diluted dihydro-phosphate solution (pKa = 7.2), while the metal cation had a negligible impact on the electrochemical performance. This work provides a cheap and simple method for enabling the high performance of nickel-rich cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗