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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial and Geochemical Dynamics of an Aquifer Stimulated for Microbial Induced Calcite Precipitation (MICP)

Microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP) is an alternative to existing soil stabilization techniques for construction and erosion. As with any biologically induced process in soils or aquifers, it is important to track changes in the microbial communities that occur as a result of the treatment. Our research assessed how native microbial communities developed in response to injections of reactants (dilute molasses as a carbon source; urea as a source of nitrogen and alkalinity) that promoted MICP in a shallow aquifer. Microbial community composition (16S rRNA gene) and ureolytic potential (ureC gene copy numbers) were also measured in groundwater and artificial sediment. Aquifer geochemistry showed evidence of sulfate reduction, nitrification, denitrification, ureolysis, and iron reduction during the treatment. The observed changes in geochemistry corresponded to microbial community succession in the groundwater and this matched parallel geophysical and mineralogical evidence of calcite precipitation in the aquifer. We detected an increase in the number of ureC genes in the microbial communities at the end of the injection period, suggesting an increase in the abundance of microbes possessing this gene as needed to hydrolyze urea and stimulate MICP. We identify geochemical and biological markers that highlight the microbial community response that can be used along with geophysical and geotechnical evidence to assess progress of MICP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Data-Driven Method for Synthetic Extreme Weather Generation and Solar Impact Assessment: Preprint

High-resolution, high-fidelity weather datasets are essential for testing and evaluating the resilience of power systems, particularly under extreme weather conditions. However, existing extreme weather datasets are typically derived from historical events that are localized and may lack the spatial and temporal resolution or scenario diversity needed to test largescale power systems. In this work, we propose a synthetic extreme weather simulation approach capable of generating targeted extreme events, such as hurricanes, using publicly available data sources. Preliminary results demonstrate the impact of a simulated Category 1 hurricane on renewable generation and critical infrastructure in California. The work aims to provide a flexible approach for creating multiple types of extreme weather scenarios across different regions, enabling comprehensive system stress testing, training, and resilience assessment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Atomistic Assessment of Solute-Solute Interactions during Grain Boundary Segregation

Grain boundary solute segregation is becoming increasingly common as a means of stabilizing nanocrystalline alloys. Thermodynamic models for grain boundary segregation have recently revealed the need for spectral information, i.e., the full distribution of environments available at the grain boundary during segregation, in order to capture the essential physics of the problem for complex systems like nanocrystalline materials. However, there has been only one proposed method of extending spectral segregation models beyond the dilute limit, and it is based on simple, fitted parameters that are not atomistically informed. In this work, we present a physically motived atomistic method to measure the full distribution of solute-solute interaction energies at the grain boundaries in a polycrystalline environment. We then cast the results into a simple thermodynamic model, analyze the Al(Mg) system as a case study, and demonstrate strong agreement with physically rigorous hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular statics simulations. This approach provides a means of rapidly measuring key interactions for non-dilute grain boundary segregation for any system with an interatomic potential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Challenges in Rotor Aerodynamic Modeling for Non-Uniform Inflow Conditions

Within an international collaboration framework, the accuracy of rotor aerodynamic models used for design load calculations of wind turbines is being assessed. Where the use of high-fidelity computation fluid dynamics (CFD) and mid-fidelity free-vortex wake (FVW) models has become commonplace within the wind energy community, these still fail to meet the requirements in terms of execution time and computational cost needed for design load calculations. The fast but engineering fidelity blade-element/momentum (BEM) method can therefore still be considered the industry workhorse for design load simulations. At the same time, upscaling of wind turbine rotors makes inflow non-uniformities (e.g. shear, veer, turbulence) more important. The objective of this work is to assess model accuracy in non-uniform inflow conditions, which violate several BEM assumptions. Thereto a comparison in turbulent inflow has been executed including a wide variety of codes, focusing on the DanAero field measurements, where a 2.3-MW turbine was equipped with, among other sensors, a pressure measurement apparatus. The results indicate that, although average load patterns are in good agreement, this does not hold for the unsteady loads that drive fatigue damage and aero-elastic stability. A simplified comparison round in vertical shear was initiated to investigate the observed differences in a more controlled manner. A consistent offset in load amplitude was observed between CFD and free-vortex codes on the one hand and BEM-type codes on the other hand. To shed more light on the observations, dedicated efforts are ongoing to pinpoint the cause for these differences, in the end leading to guidelines for an improved BEM implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Influenza A Virus Multicycle Replication Yields Comparable Viral Population Emergence in Human Respiratory and Ocular Cell Types

While primarily considered a respiratory pathogen, influenza A virus (IAV) is nonetheless capable of spreading to, and replicating in, numerous extrapulmonary tissues in humans. However, within-host assessments of genetic diversity during multicycle replication have been largely limited to respiratory tract tissues and specimens. As selective pressures can vary greatly between anatomical sites, there is a need to examine how measures of viral diversity may vary between influenza viruses exhibiting different tropisms in humans, as well as following influenza virus infection of cells derived from different organ systems. Here, we employed human primary tissue constructs emulative of the human airway or corneal surface, and we infected both with a panel of human- and avian-origin IAV, inclusive of H1 and H3 subtype human viruses and highly pathogenic H5 and H7 subtype viruses, which are associated with both respiratory disease and conjunctivitis following human infection. While both cell types supported productive replication of all viruses, airway-derived tissue constructs elicited greater induction of genes associated with antiviral responses than did corneal-derived constructs. We used next-generation sequencing to examine viral mutations and population diversity, utilizing several metrics. With few exceptions, generally comparable measures of viral diversity and mutational frequency were detected following homologous virus infection of both respiratory-origin and ocular-origin tissue constructs. Expansion of within-host assessments of genetic diversity to include IAV with atypical clinical presentations in humans or in extrapulmonary cell types can provide greater insight into understanding those features most prone to modulation in the context of viral tropism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Resilience of Large Power Transformer Bushings & Non-SF6 Industrial Base Scan Review

Large (high voltage) power transformers (LPT), and more specifically, their bushings, are known to be susceptible to seismic failure. With bushing failure, a transformer will have to be replaced, which has a considerable lead time, adding to the power outage duration. Cost-efficient, proven solutions are not currently available to mitigate this risk, which can persist for the more than 30-year life of a particular transformer. This work will focus on developing and demonstrating a hardware solution to address seismic vulnerabilities and reduce outage risks from LPT failure. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF6, alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF6, at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. An industry scan was performed to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF6-free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Investigating the impacts of solid phase extraction on dissolved organic matter optical signatures and the pairing with high‐resolution mass spectrometry data across a freshwater stream network

Abstract Advancing our understanding of dissolved organic matter (DOM) chemistry in aquatic systems necessitates the integration of data streams from multiple analytical platforms. Some measurements require pretreatment with solid phase extraction (SPE), while others are performed directly on whole water samples. Evidence has suggested that SPE will be biased against select DOM fractions, leading to concerns over the ability to establish data linkages across platforms with variable needs for SPE pretreatment, such as those from optical measurements and those that provide high‐resolution molecular information. Here, we directly addressed this concern by assessing the impact of SPE on DOM optical properties through excitation–emission matrices with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) for 47 samples across a stream network within a single watershed reflective of variable DOM sources. PARAFAC data was further paired with molecular information obtained by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR‐MS). A comparison of PARAFAC models first revealed no systematic qualitative differences in major components between whole water DOM and DOM isolated by SPE (SPE‐DOM); however, quantitative biases against select components were observed. Further linkages with FTICR‐MS data revealed that the molecular fingerprint associated with each PARAFAC component was consistent between the whole water DOM and SPE‐DOM. Our results suggest that bulk scale linkages across these analytical platforms could be inferred irrespective of the observed quantitative biases resulting from SPE for samples within this example watershed. This work represents a key step toward the systematic evaluation of linkages between optical and high‐resolution mass spectrometry datasets in freshwater lotic environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A simple and fast algorithm for estimating the capacity credit of solar and storage

Energy storage is a leading option to enhance the resource adequacy contribution of solar energy. Detailed analysis of the capacity credit of solar energy and energy storage is limited in part due to the data intensive and computationally complex nature of probabilistic resource adequacy assessments. This paper presents a simple algorithm for calculating the capacity credit of energy-limited resources that, due to the low computational and data needs, is well suited to exploratory analysis. Validation against benchmarks based on probabilistic techniques shows that it can yield similar insights. The method is used to evaluate the impact of different solar and storage configurations, particularly with respect to the strategy for coupling storage and solar photovoltaic systems. Furthermore, application of the method to a case study of utilities in Florida, where solar is rapidly growing and demand peaks in the winter and summer, demonstrates that it can improve on rules of thumb used in practice by some utilities. If storage is required to charge only from solar, periods of high demand driven by cold weather events accompanied by lower solar production can result in a capacity credit of solar and storage that is less than the capacity credit of storage alone.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mutually beneficial outcomes for hydropower expansion and environmental protection at a basin scale

Reshaping the scale of planning for hydropower development, from reaches to basin-scales, has been recommended as a more effective way to ameliorate the environmental impacts of hydropower. One approach is identifying mutually exclusive areas where development is precluded for conservation purposes and areas of low conservation value that present fewer barriers to development. This strategy, however, is less adoptable in developed countries where hydropower is already widespread and large-scale construction of new dams is unlikely. To broaden the adoption of basin-scale planning, alternative approaches and planning tools are needed for identifying mutually beneficial opportunities for simultaneous increases in hydropower capacity while improving environmental conditions. In this study, we present the Basin Scale Opportunity Assessment as a methodology to improve environmental conditions through either direct (on-site) or indirect (off-site) mitigation. We assess whether direct or indirect mitigation activities lead to optimal results in terms of added hydropower, environmental improvement, and monetary cost at a basin scale. We present two case studies for the Connecticut River and Roanoke River Basins, USA. Significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generating capacity are numerous in both basins. Results suggest that total hydropower capacity could be increased 4 to 7 % in the Roanoke and Connecticut Basins, respectively, without new dam construction and with net improvements in environmental conditions. We found that environmentally and economically optimal win-win strategies for increasing hydropower capacity and improving environmental conditions included improving environmental conditions in rivers downstream of existing dams. Off-site mitigation opportunities, such as dam removal and wetland mitigation, were identified as optimum solutions for achieving net environmental improvements only when they were associated with new hydropower construction. Our results demonstrate that opportunities to increase hydropower capacity and improve environmental conditions are expanded by viewing cumulative benefits at basin scales; however, increasing regulatory flexibility may be required to realize these opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overdestabilization vs Overstabilization in the Theoretical Analysis of f-Orbital Covalency

The complex nature of the f-orbital electronic structures and their interaction with the chemical environment pose significant computational challenges. Advanced computational techniques that variationally include scalar relativities and spin–orbit coupling directly at the molecular orbital level have been developed to address this complexity. Among these, variational relativistic multiconfigurational multireference methods stand out for their high accuracy and systematic improvement in studies of f-block complexes. Additionally, these advanced methods offer the potential for calibrating low-scaling electronic structure methods such as density functional theory. However, studies on the Cl K-edge X-ray absorption spectra of the [Ce(III)Cl 6 ] 3– and [Ce(IV)Cl 6 ] 2– complexes show that time-dependent density functional theory with approximate exchange–correlation kernels can lead to inaccuracies, resulting in an overstabilization of 4f orbitals and incorrect assessments of covalency. In contrast, approaches utilizing small active space wave function methods may understate the stability of these orbitals. The results herein demonstrate the need for large active space, multireference, and variational relativistic methods in studying f-block complexes.

chemical calculations↗

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗

Cosmology requirements on supernova photometric redshift systematics for the Rubin LSST and Roman Space Telescope

Some million type Ia supernovae (SN) will be discovered and monitored during upcoming wide area time domain surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). For cosmological use, accurate redshifts are needed among other characteristics; however the vast majority of the SN will not have spectroscopic redshifts, even for their host galaxies, only photometric redshifts. We assess the redshift systematic control necessary for robust cosmology. Based on the photometric vs true redshift relation generated by machine learning applied to a simulation of 500,000 galaxies as observed with LSST quality, we quantify requirements on systematics in the mean relation and in the outlier fraction and deviance so as not to bias dark energy cosmological inference. Certain redshift ranges are particularly sensitive, motivating spectroscopic followup of SN at z ≲ 0.2 and around z ≈ 0.5–0.6 . Including Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope near infrared bands in the simulation, we reanalyze the constraints, finding improvements at high redshift but little at the low redshifts where systematics lead to strong cosmology bias. We identify a complete spectroscopic survey of SN host galaxies for z≲0.2 as a highly favored element for robust SN cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

2021-2026 Weapons Research Services Strategic Plan

The Weapons Research Services (WRS) Division provides Los Alamos National Laboratory with services, resources, and staff that are critical to fulfilling its national security mission. WRS serves the entire LANL Weapons Program and is housed within the Weapons Physics Directorate (ALDX), which is at the core of the design, certification, and assessment of the nation’s nuclear weapons. More specifically, WRS is a research and development organization that provides unique tools designed to meet the specific needs of the Lab’s weapons mission rather than administrative or Information & Technology (IT) tools used broadly by the Lab. WRS partners with other LANL organizations, including Global Security to conduct mission research and I&T organizations to meet basic IT infrastructure needs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Biological Carbon Sequestration for Climate and Soil Health

The United States recently launched the Net Zero World Initiative on decarbonization. As temperatures and sea levels rise, strong action is needed to mitigate high atmospheric CO2 levels. In response to this need, a joint workshop between the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) was convened to assess the challenges and opportunities within biological carbon (C) capture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fusing 4D coded thermoacoustic, electromagnetic, and acoustic/seismic wavefields for subsurface characterization and imaging of fluid flow in porous media

This research program aims to address critical challenges in subsurface exploration and monitoring of anthropogenic CO 2 storage by advancing quantitative dynamic sensing and imaging technologies. Two primary applications—petrophysical assessment of hydrocarbon reservoirs (C1) and CO 2 storage monitoring (C2)—require significant innovation to overcome three barriers (B1-B3). These barriers include the need for enhanced understanding of interactions between physical wave fields (thermoacoustic, electromagnetic, acoustic/seismic, and X-ray) with fluid-filled porous media, the development of multi-sensor data fusion for real-time imaging, and upscaling microscopic quantum effects for macroscopic observations. The project’s objective was to establish a unified 4D coded sensing and imaging approach, integrating EM, AC/S, and TA fields for multi-scale and multi-physics material characterization and subsurface imaging.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determination of 2,4-Dinitrophenol (2,4-DNP) in Simulated Radioactive Waste by High Performance Liquid Chromatography

The River Protection Project (RPP) at Hanford, Washington is evaluating an alternative treatment method for low activity tank waste (LAW) disposition. Specifically, grout solidification/immobilization for LAW needs to demonstrate adequate treatment for Land Disposal Restricted (LDR) Organic chemicals. LDR organic chemical pretreatment, such as evaporations testing and oxidation decomposition, are under assessment to reduce the LDR organic chemicals concentration in the LDR waste. 2,4-dinitrophenol was spiked into LAW simulated waste and monitored in these studies using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The development and implementation of this HPLC method is discussed in this presentation.

Dekarske, John R. [Savannah River National Laborat↗

Development of an Advanced Multiphysics Simulation Capability for Radiant's Microreactor Design

Argonne National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory, through a Department of Energy Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear Voucher, supported key analysis needs of Radiant related to (i) air jacket thermal fluid performance, (ii) evaluation of decay heat source terms defining air jacket technical requirements, and (iii) assessment of modeling methodologies employed for core analysis. All of these activities center on numerical simulation of various aspects of Kaleidos using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, the Cardinal multiphysics application, the OpenMC Monte Carlo code, and the Nek5000 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code. This project builds upon an earlier Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Thermal-Hydraulic (T/H) Center of Excellence (CoE) project focused on initial demonstration of Cardinal multiphysics simulation of High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs) and now focuses on Radiant’s Kaleidos concept.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗