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DOE OSTI2020

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nonequilibrium effects on stability of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions

The stability of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions as determined by calculating fundamental radial oscillation modes is known to differ from the predictions of the widely used Bardeen-Thorne-Meltzer criterion. We consider the effects of out-of-chemical-equilibrium physics on the radial modes and hence stability of these objects. For a barotropic equation of state, this is done by allowing the adiabatic sound speed to differ from the equilibrium sound speed. We show that doing so extends the stable branches of stellar models, allowing stars with rapid phase transitions to support stable higher-order stellar multiplets similarly to stars with multiple slow phase transitions. We also derive a new junction condition to impose on the oscillation modes at the phase transition. Termed the reactive condition, it is physically motivated, consistent with the generalized junction conditions between two phases, and has the common rapid and slow conditions as limiting cases. Unlike the two common cases, it can only be applied to nonbarotropic stars. Here, we apply this junction condition to hybrid stellar models generated using a two-phase equation of state consisting of nuclear matter with unpaired quark matter at high densities joined by a first-order phase transition and show that, like in the slow limiting case, stars that are classically unstable are stabilized by a finite chemical reaction speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

First-principles characterization of the magnetic properties of Cu 2 (OH) 3 Br

Low-dimensional spin-1/2 transition metal oxides and oxyhalides continue to be at the forefront of research investigating nonclassical phases such as quantum spin liquids. In this work, we examine the magnetic properties of the oxyhalide Cu 2 (OH) 3 Br in the botallackite structure using first-principles density functional theory, linear spin-wave theory, and exact diagonalization calculations. This quasi-two-dimensional system consists of Cu 2+ S = 1/2 moments arranged on a distorted triangular lattice. Our exact diagonalization calculations, which rely on a first-principles-based magnetic model, generate spectral functions consistent with inelastic neutron scattering data. By performing computational experiments to disentangle the chemical and steric effects of the halide ions, we find that the dominant effect of the halogen ions is steric in the Cu 2 (OH) 3 X series of compounds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Crystal structure of the flavoenzyme PA4991 from Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PA4991 is a FAD-dependent oxidoreductase from the pathogen P. aeruginosa that is essential for virulence and survival in the infected host. The structure of this enzyme, determined to 2.4 Å resolution, reveals that PA4991 belongs to the GR{sub 2} family of flavoenzymes. The locus PA4991 in Pseudomonas aeruginosa encodes an open reading frame that has been identified as essential for the virulence and/or survival of this pathogenic organism in the infected host. Here, it is shown that this gene encodes a monomeric FAD-binding protein of molecular mass 42.2 kDa. The structure of PA4991 was determined by a combination of molecular replacement using a search model generated with Rosetta and phase improvement by a low-occupancy heavy-metal derivative. PA4991 belongs to the GR{sub 2} family of FAD-dependent oxidoreductases, comprising an FAD-binding domain typical of the glutathione reductase family and a second domain dominated by an eight-stranded mixed β-sheet. Most of the protein–FAD interactions are via the FAD-binding domain, but the isoalloxazine ring is located at the domain interface and interacts with residues from both domains. A comparison with the structurally related glycine oxidase and glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase shows that in spite of very low amino-acid sequence identity (<18%) several active-site residues involved in substrate binding in these enzymes are conserved in PA4991. However, enzymatic assays show that PA4991 does not display amino-acid oxidase or glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase activities, suggesting that it requires different substrates for activity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Weakly Supervised Event Classification Using Imperfect Real-world PMU Data with Scarce Labels

This paper studies event classification using imperfect real-world phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with scarce event types (labels). By investigating the real-world PMU data, it is observed that most real-world PMU data's event type is unknown, which makes it challenging to directly use such dataset to build event classifiers as existing classification techniques require high-quality training data with known event type (i.e., label). To address this challenge, a weakly supervised learning based event classification approach is developed, which can use noisy and low-quality PMU data for the training. First, data quality issues are fixed using data preprocessing techniques and then event features are constructed from the PMU data. Using these features, a series of labeling functions are learnt to generate initial estimates of the labels of large amounts of unlabeled PMU data. As the labeling functions are learnt using the same data with scarce labels, the label estimates from the labeling functions can be correlated, noisy, and bias. To enhance these initial estimates, a generative model is developed to characterize the dependencies among the estimated labels, based on which better labels are obtained for training event classifiers. Numerical experiments using the real-world dataset from the Western Interconnection of the U.S. power transmission grid show that the proposed weakly supervised event classifier trained using the dataset with only 5% labeled data can achieve 78.4% classification accuracy.

Liu, Yunchuan↗

DOE OSTI2016

Extracting Baseline Electricity Usage Using Gradient Tree Boosting

To understand how specific interventions affect a process observed over time, we need to control for the other factors that influence outcomes. Such a model that captures all factors other than the one of interest is generally known as a baseline. In our study of how different pricing schemes affect residential electricity consumption, the baseline would need to capture the impact of outdoor temperature along with many other factors. In this work, we examine a number of different data mining techniques and demonstrate Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB) to be an effective method to build the baseline. We train GTB on data prior to the introduction of new pricing schemes, and apply the known temperature following the introduction of new pricing schemes to predict electricity usage with the expected temperature correction. Our experiments and analyses show that the baseline models generated by GTB capture the core characteristics over the two years with the new pricing schemes. In contrast to the majority of regression based techniques which fail to capture the lag between the peak of daily temperature and the peak of electricity usage, the GTB generated baselines are able to correctly capture the delay between the temperature peak and the electricity peak. Furthermore, subtracting this temperature-adjusted baseline from the observed electricity usage, we find that the resulting values are more amenable to interpretation, which demonstrates that the temperature-adjusted baseline is indeed effective.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Making Invisible Visible: Data-Driven Seismic Inversion With Spatio-Temporally Constrained Data Augmentation

Deep learning and data-driven approaches have shown great potential in scientific domains. The promise of data-driven techniques relies on the availability of a large volume of high-quality training datasets. Due to the high cost of obtaining data through expensive physical experiments, instruments, and simulations, data augmentation techniques for scientific applications have emerged as a new direction for obtaining scientific data recently. However, existing data augmentation techniques originating from computer vision yield physically unacceptable data samples that are not helpful for the domain problems that we are interested in. In this article, we develop new data augmentation techniques based on convolutional neural networks. Specifically, our generative models leverage different physics knowledge (such as governing equations, observable perception, and physics phenomena) to improve the quality of the synthetic data. To validate the effectiveness of our data augmentation techniques, we apply them to solve a subsurface seismic full-waveform inversion using simulated CO 2 leakage data. Our interest is to invert for subsurface velocity models associated with very small CO 2 leakage. We validate the performance of our methods using comprehensive numerical tests. Here via comparison and analysis, we show that data-driven seismic imaging can be significantly enhanced by using our data augmentation techniques. Particularly, the imaging quality has been improved by 15% in test scenarios of general-sized leakage and 17% in small-sized leakage when using an augmented training set obtained with our techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Patient dose simulations for scanning-beam digital x-ray tomosynthesis of the lungs

Purpose: An improved method of image guidance for lung tumor biopsies could help reduce the high rate of false negatives. The aim of this work is to optimize the geometry of the scanning-beam digital tomography system (SBDX) for providing real-time 3D tomographic reconstructions for target verification. The unique geometry of the system requires trade-offs between patient dose, imaging field of view (FOV), and tomographic angle.Methods: Tomosynthetic angle as a function of tumor-to-detector distance was calculated. Monte Carlo Software (PCXMC) was used to calculate organ doses and effective dose for source-to-detector distances (SDDs) from 90 to 150 cm, patient locations with the tumor at 20 cm from the source to 20 cm from the detector, and FOVs centered on left lung and right lung as well as medial and distal peripheries of the lungs. These calculations were done for two systems, a SBDX system and a GE OEC-9800 C-arm fluoroscopic unit. To evaluate the dose effect of the system geometry, results from PCXMC were calculated using a scan of 300 mAs for both SBDX and fluoroscopy. The Rose Criterion was used to find the fluence required for a tumor SNR of 5, factoring in scatter, air-gap, system geometry, and patient position for all models generated with PCXMC. Using the calculated fluence for constant tumor SNR, the results from PCXMC were used to compare the patient dose for a given SNR between SBDX and fluoroscopy.Results: Tomographic angle changes with SDD only in the region near the detector. Due to their geometry, the source array and detector have a peak tomographic angle for any given SDD at a source to tumor distance that is 69.7% of the SDD assuming constant source and detector size. Changing the patient location in order to increase tomographic angle has a significant effect on organ dose distribution due to geometrical considerations. With SBDX and fluoroscopy geometries, the dose to organs typically changes in an opposing manner with changing patient location. When tumor SNR is held constant (i.e., x-ray fluence is scaled appropriately), SBDX gives 2–10 times less dose than fluoroscopy for the same conditions within the typical range of patient locations. The relative position of the patient (as a percent of SDD) has a much more significant impact on dose than either SDD or patient position. The patient position providing the minimum dose for a given tumor SNR and SDD is approximately the same as the position of maximum tomographic angle.Conclusions: SBDX offers a significant dose advantage over currently used C-arm fluoroscopy. The patient location with lowest dose coincides with the location of maximum tomographic angle. In order to provide adequate space for the patient and for the pulmonologists’ equipment, a SDD of 100 cm is recommended.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of short-range ordering motifs in semiconductors

Chemical short-range ordering is expected to be a key factor for tuning the electronic structure of semiconductors. However, experimental evidence of short-range ordering is still lacking due to the challenge of characterizing atomic-scale ordering motifs. Here, we determined the presence of short-range order in a ternary GeSiSn semiconductor system using advanced energy-filtered four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy and large-scale atomistic models generated by a machine learning neuroevolution potential of first-principles accuracy. This approach revealed preferred ordering of different atomic species with the dominant occurrence of Si–Ge–Sn triplets. Our findings not only confirmed the presence of short-range order but also directly revealed the actual atomic structure, demonstrating the potential for informed atomic order–based band engineering as a third degree of freedom beyond composition and strain tuning.

Vogl, Lilian M. [University of California Berkeley↗

DOE OSTI2016

Charged-particle distributions in pp interactions at √s=8TeV measured with the ATLAS detector

This study presents measurements of distributions of charged particles which are produced in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. A special dataset recorded in 2012 with a small number of interactions per beam crossing (below 0.004) and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 160 μb -1 was used. A minimum-bias trigger was utilised to select a data sample of more than 9 million collision events. The multiplicity, pseudorapidity, and transverse momentum distributions of charged particles are shown in different regions of kinematics and charged-particle multiplicity, including measurements of final states at high multiplicity. Finally, the results are corrected for detector effects and are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generator models which simulate the full hadronic final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

temporal-graphs/STM

Structural Temporal Modeling Generating a synthetic graph that is similar to a given real- world graph is a critical requirement for privacy preservation and benchmarking purposes. This software presents a temporal-motif based approach to generate synthetic temporal graph datasets.

Purohit, Sumit↗

DOE OSTI2025

ProteinTuneRL

ProteinTuneRL is a framework designed to harness the power of reinforcement learning for advanced protein design. The project enables fine-tuning of generative models to explore and optimize protein sequences with tailored structural and functional properties.

Landajuela Larma, Mikel [Lawrence Livermore Nation↗

DOE OSTI2025

GAN-BH

Generative Modeling for Black Hole Astrophysics

Lim, Hyun [Los Alamos National Laboratory]↗

DOE OSTI2025

CalyxFlow

CalyxFlow is a lightweight agentic artificial intelligent workflow. This workflow demonstrates the use of AI LLMs to generate modeling and simulation inputs for a scientific simulation and manage execution and analysis of a suite of simulations.

Shipman, Galen↗

DOE OSTI2016

Characterizing Sierra Nevada Snowpack Using Variable-Resolution CESM

The location, timing, and intermittency of precipitation in California make the state integrally reliant on winter-season snowpack accumulation to maintain its economic and agricultural livelihood. Of particular concern is that winter-season snowpack has shown a net decline across the western United States over the past 50 years, resulting in major uncertainty in water-resource management heading into the next century. Cutting-edge tools are available to help navigate and preemptively plan for these uncertainties. This paper uses a next-generation modeling technique-variable-resolution global climate modeling within the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM)-at horizontal resolutions of 0.125° (14 km) and 0.25° (28 km). VR-CESM provides the means to include dynamically large-scale atmosphere-ocean drivers, to limit model bias, and to provide more accurate representations of regional topography while doing so in a more computationally efficient manner than can be achieved with conventional general circulation models. This paper validates VR-CESM at climatological and seasonal time scales for Sierra Nevada snowpack metrics by comparing them with the "Daymet," "Cal-Adapt," NARR, NCEP, and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) reanalysis datasets, the MODIS remote sensing dataset, the SNOTEL observational dataset, a standard-practice global climate model (CESM), and a regional climate model (WRF Model) dataset. Overall, given California's complex terrain and intermittent precipitation and that both of the VR-CESM simulations were only constrained by prescribed sea surface temperatures and data on sea ice extent, a 0.68 centered Pearson product-moment correlation, a negative mean SWE bias of < 7 mm, an interquartile range well within the values exhibited in the reanalysis datasets, and a mean December-February extent of snow cover that is within 7% of the expected MODIS value together make apparent the efficacy of the VR-CESM framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs)—brief but strong westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific—are believed to play an important role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, but quantifying their effects is challenging. Here, we investigate the cumulative effects of WWBs on ENSO characteristics, including the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, via modified coupled model experiments within Community Earth System Model (CESM1) in which we progressively reduce the impacts of wind stress anomalies associated with model-generated WWBs. In these “wind stress shaving” experiments we limit momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean above a preset threshold, thus “shaving off” wind bursts. To reduce the tropical Pacific mean state drift, both westerly and easterly wind bursts are removed, although the changes are dominated by WWB reduction. As we impose progressively stronger thresholds, both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of extreme El Niño decrease, and ENSO becomes less asymmetric. The warming center of El Niño shifts westward, indicating less frequent and weaker eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Removing most wind burst–related wind stress anomalies reduces ENSO mean amplitude by 22%. The essential role of WWBs in the development of extreme El Niño events is highlighted by the suppressed eastward migration of the western Pacific warm pool and hence a weaker Bjerknes feedback under wind shaving. Overall, our results reaffirm the importance of WWBs in shaping the characteristics of ENSO and its extreme events and imply that WWB changes with global warming could influence future ENSO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗