Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,027 records · Page 57
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

People who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago: A meta-analysis of data from 1997-2017 to inform interventions and computational modeling toward hepatitis C microelimination

Progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in the United States is not on track to meet targets set by the World Health Organization, as the opioid crisis continues to drive both injection drug use and increasing HCV incidence. A pragmatic approach to achieving this is using a microelimination approach of focusing on high-risk populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Computational models are useful in understanding the complex interplay of individual, social, and structural level factors that might alter HCV incidence, prevalence, transmission, and treatment uptake to achieve HCV microelimination. However, these models need to be informed with realistic sociodemographic, risk behavior and network estimates on PWID. We conducted a meta-analysis of research studies spanning 20 years of research and interventions with PWID in metropolitan Chicago to produce parameters for a synthetic population for realistic computational models (e.g., agent-based models). We then fit an exponential random graph model (ERGM) using the network estimates from the meta-analysis in order to develop the network component of the synthetic population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Impact experiments in viscous fluid media

Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, anelastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for average Earth, average ocean, and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low-veocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studied. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggestive. For most of the Earth SHSV in the vicinity of the low-velocity zone. Near the East Pacific Rise, however, SVSH at depth, consistent with ascending flow. Anisotropy is as important as temperature in causing radial and lateral variations in velocity. The models have a high velocity nearly isotropic layer at the top of the mantle that thickens with age. This layer defines the LID, or seismic lithosphere. In the Pacific, the LID thickens with age to a maximum thickness of about 50 km. This thickness is comparable to the thickness of the elastic lithosphere. The LID thickness is thinner than derived using isotropic or pseudo-isotropic procedures A new model for Average Earth is obtained which includes a thin LID. This model extends the fit of a P.R.E.M. type model to shorter period surface waves.

Greeley, R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Starbursts in interacting galaxies: Observations and models

Starbursts have been a puzzling field of research for more than a decade. It is evident that they played a significant role in the evolution of many galaxies but still quite little is known about the starburst mechanisms. A way towards a better interpretation of the available data is the comparison with evolution models of starburst. The modelling of starbursts and the fitting of such model starbursts to observed data is discussed. The models were applied to a subset of starburst and post-starburst galaxies in a sample of 30 interacting systems. These galaxies are not ultraluminous far infrared (FIR) galaxies but rather ordinary starburst galaxies with FIR luminosities of a few 10(exp 10) to a few 10(exp 11) solar luminosities.

Bernloehr, Konrad↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparison of distributed reacceleration and leaky-box models of cosmic-ray abundances (Z = 3-28)

A large collection of elemental and isotopic cosmic-ray data has been analyzed using the leaky-box transport model with and without reacceleration in the interstellar medium. Abundances of isotopes and elements with charges Z = 3-28 and energies E = 10 MeV/nucleon-1 TeV/nucleon were explored. Our results demonstrate that reacceleration models make detailed and accurate predictions with the same number of parameters or fewer as standard leaky-box models. Ad hoc fitting parameters in the standard model are replaced by astrophysically significant reacceleration parameters. Distributed reacceleration models explain the peak in secondary-to-primary ratios around 1 GeV/nucleon. They diminish the discrepancy between rigidity-dependent leakage and energy-independent anisotropy. They also offer the possibility of understanding isotopic anomalies at low energy.

Letaw, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Emergence of double-peaked emission lines in the broad-line radio galaxy Pictor A

A new optical spectrum of the nearby broad-line radio galaxy (BLRG) Pictor A reveals a prominent double-peaked component of the Balmer lines which does not appear in any historical spectra of this object. Carried out with the hope of obtaining exactly such a result, this observation is a key to the interpretation of double-peaked emitters. If bolsters our previous conclusion that there is a set of additional properties which are associated with the rare class of double-peaked emitters, namely F-R II radio morphology, strong low-ionization forbidden lines, weak UV continuum, and flat far-infrared spectrum. Furthermore, the low-velocity, 'ordinary' broad Balmer lines in Pictor A remained relatively unchanged as the new twin peaks appeared, which justifies the practice of applying models that fit only the double peaks and not the low-velocity components that are often present in spectra of this type. We discuss the relative merits of accretion-disk models and other models for double-peaked emission lines in the light of this new observation.

Halpern, Jules P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Coronal Element Abundances of the Post-Common Envelope Binary V471 Tauri with ASCA

We report on ASCA observations of the coronally active companion star in the post-common envelope binary V471 Tau. While it would be prudent to check the following results with grating spectroscopy, we find that a single-temperature plasma model does not fit the data. Two temperature models with variable abundances indicate that Fe is underabundant compared to the Hyades photospheric mean, whereas, the high first ionization potential element Ne is overabundant. This is indicative of the inverse first ionization effect, believed to result from the fractionation of ionized material by the magnetic field in the upper atmosphere of the star. Evolutionary calculations indicate that there should be no peculiar abundances on the companion star resulting from the common envelope epoch. Indeed, we find no evidence for peculiar abundances, although uncertainties are high.

Still, Martin↗
NASA NTRS2010

A New Compression Method for FITS Tables

As the size and number of FITS binary tables generated by astronomical observatories increases, so does the need for a more efficient compression method to reduce the amount disk space and network bandwidth required to archive and down1oad the data tables. We have developed a new compression method for FITS binary tables that is modeled after the FITS tiled-image compression compression convention that has been in use for the past decade. Tests of this new method on a sample of FITS binary tables from a variety of current missions show that on average this new compression technique saves about 50% more disk space than when simply compressing the whole FITS file with gzip. Other advantages of this method are (1) the compressed FITS table is itself a valid FITS table, (2) the FITS headers remain uncompressed, thus allowing rapid read and write access to the keyword values, and (3) in the common case where the FITS file contains multiple tables, each table is compressed separately and may be accessed without having to uncompress the whole file.

Pence, William↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data to Accompany: PM2.5 is insufficient to explain personal PAH exposure

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality index (AQI) data from outdoor stationary monitors and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke density data from satellites are often used as proxies for personal chemical exposure. Silicone wristbands can quantify more individualized exposure data than stationary air monitors or smoke satellites. However, it is not understood how these proxy measurements compare to chemical data measured from wristbands. We hypothesized that predictive models for personal chemical exposure would be significantly improved by expanding beyond stationary PM2.5 AQI data or satellite HMS data to also include environmental and behavioral information. In Eugene, Oregon, participants wore daily wristbands, carried a phone that recorded locations, and answered daily questionnaires for a seven-day period in multiple seasons. We gathered publicly available daily PM2.5 AQI data and HMS data. We analyzed wristbands for 94 organic chemicals, including 53 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Wristband chemical detections and concentrations, behavioral variables (e.g., time spent indoors), and environmental conditions (e.g., PM2.5 AQI) significantly differed between seasons. Machine learning models were fit to predict personal chemical exposure using PM2.5 AQI only, HMS only, and a multivariate feature set including PM2.5 AQI, HMS, and other environmental and behavioral information. On average, the multivariate models increased predictive accuracy by approximately 70% compared to either the AQI model or the HMS model for all chemicals modeled. This study provides evidence that PM2.5 AQI data alone or HMS data alone is insufficient to explain personal chemical exposures. Our results identify additional key predictors of personal chemical exposure.

Bramer, Lisa M↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Maximum principle solutions for time-optimal half-loop maneuvers of a high alpha fighter aircraft

An investigation was conducted of maximum principle solutions for an initial 0.6 Mach number and 15,000-ft altitude. The authors generate these solutions for a family of prescribed final times tf, starting with tf = 0.5 s. Using a nonlinear wind-tunnel model they construct maximum principle solutions. Above tf = 1.2 s some small nonlinear variations in the aerodynamic pitching moment coefficient presented difficulty with respect to numerical convergence. This was circumvented by fitting analytical models to the aerodynamic coefficients of the wind-tunnel model at Mach 0.4. Maximum principle solutions of the analytical model are shown to compare well with those obtained for tf of less than 1.2 s. Using the analytical model the authors extended the prescribed final time to a value of 13.65 s at which time the aircraft completes the half-loop maneuver. This is 0.53 s longer than that obtained using the singular perturbation feedback control law.

Stalford, Harold↗
NASA NTRS1994

Analysis of Airborne Radar Altimetry Measurements of the Greenland Ice Sheet

This dissertation presents an analysis of airborne altimetry measurements taken over the Greenland ice sheet with the 13.9 GHz Advanced Application Flight Experiment (AAFE) pulse compression radar altimeter. This Ku-band instrument was refurbished in 1990 by the Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory at the University of Massachusetts to obtain high-resolution altitude measurements and to improve the tracking, speed, storage and display capabilities of the radar. In 1991 and 1993, the AAFE altimeter took part in the NASA Multisensor Airborne Altimetry Experiments over Greenland, along with two NASA laser altimeters. Altitude results from both experiments are presented along with comparisons to the laser altimeter and calibration passes over the Sondrestroem runway in Greenland. Although it is too early to make a conclusion about the growth or decay of the ice sheet, these results show that the instrument is capable of measuring small-scale surface changes to within 14 centimeters. In addition, results from these experiments reveal that the radar is sensitive to the different diagenetic regions of the ice sheet. Return waveforms from the wet- snow, percolation and dry-snow zones show varying effects of both surface scattering and sub-surface or volume scattering. Models of each of the diagenetic regions of Greenland are presented along with parameters such as rms surface roughness, rms surface slope and attenuation coefficient of the snow pack obtained by fitting the models to actual return waveforms.

Ferraro, Ellen J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implosion dynamics of triple-nozzle gas-puff z pinches on COBRA

Experiments on the 1-MA, 220-ns COBRA generator at Cornell University were conducted to provide detailed measurements of structured cylindrical gas-puff z pinches. In the experiments, a 7 cm diameter triple-nozzle gas valve assembly with concentric outer and inner annular nozzles and a central gas jet initialize the z-pinch load with various working gases, radial density profiles, and externally applied axial magnetic fields. Planar laser-induced fluorescence provides a measure of the initial neutral gas density of the load, while three-frame laser shearing interferometry and multi-frame extreme ultraviolet (XUV) cameras reveal the formation and propagation of a magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor (MRT) unstable shock layer. Implosion trajectories are compared to simple, experimentally informed models and found to be in good agreement. Differences in the structure of the accelerating plasma sheath and evolution of the MRT instability are observed for different gas species and axial magnetic field strengths, correlating with differences in pinch uniformity and x-ray emission. Here, the average instability growth is compared to linear MRT theory predictions using the instantaneous acceleration of the best-fit implosion models and characteristic instability wavelength, with the effective Atwood number and seed perturbation size as fit parameters. For high density argon center jets, ionization prior to the arrival of the imploding plasma sheath suggests a heating mechanism consistent with photoionization by XUV self-emission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design Principles to Govern Electrode Fabrication for the Lithium Trivanadate Cathode

A full depth of discharge mathematical model for the lithium trivanadate cathode, considering lithiation of the layered α-phase, phase change, and lithiation of the rock-salt like β-phase at lower potentials, is developed. The coupled electrode-scale and crystal-scale model is fit to electrochemical data, and additionally validated with operando EDXRD. There is good agreement between the simulated and measured spatial variation of the volume fraction of the β-phase. This mathematical model is used to guide electrode fabrication, accounting for both ionic and electronic transport effects. Values of three design parameters—electrode thickness, porosity, and volume fraction of conductor—are identified, and the sensitivity of the energy density to these design parameters is quantified. The model is also used to investigate electrode design to create electrodes that deliver the maximum achievable energy density under the constraint that the α to β-phase transition is avoided, since phase change has been demonstrated to reduce cycle life. The energy density sacrificed to avoid phase change decreases at higher discharge rates, but the target values for electrode fabrication remain the same as those when optimizing the electrode for the full depth of discharge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling of periodic great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology

We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude less the rock viscosity determined in the laboratory.

Reches, Ze'ev↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotherm, Kinetic, Process Modeling, and Techno-Economic Analysis of a Diamine-Appended Metal-Organic Framework for CO 2 Capture Using Fixed Bed Contactors

In this report, diamine-appended metal-organic frameworks exhibiting step-shaped CO 2 adsorption are exceptional candidates for energy-efficient carbon capture. However, there are few studies examining their performance in real-world capture scenarios, in part due to the challenge inherent in modeling their CO 2 uptake behavior. Here, we develop a dual-site Sips model to fit experimental CO 2 adsorption data for dmpn-Mg 2 (dobpdc) (dmpn = 2,2-dimethyl-1,3-diaminopropane; dobpdc 4- = 4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'-dicarboxylate) and develop a linear driving force model for the adsorption kinetics based on available experimental data. These models are used to develop a dynamic, fixed bed, nonisothermal contactor model using shaped particles of the material, which is validated with experimental breakthrough data. We also examine the effects of the high heat of adsorption of the material on CO 2 uptake performance and find that heat removal is essential to maximize capture performance. We finally investigate "basic"(no bed cooling during adsorption) and "modified"(bed cooling during adsorption) temperature swing adsorption (TSA) processes using dmpn-Mg 2 (dobpdc), and their process economics are compared to a state-of-the-art monoethanolamine (MEA) capture system with and without heat recovery. In the absence of heat recovery, the adsorbent systems are more costly than established technology. However, with 85% heat recovery, both adsorbent-based TSA processes are projected to cost less than the MEA system. This work highlights that thermal management is vital for implementation of dmpn-Mg 2 (dobpdc) as a viable CO 2 capture technology. Investigation of other contactor technologies that can provide unique ways to manage system heat represent promising future areas of study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

PM 2.5 Is Insufficient to Explain Personal PAH Exposure

To understand how chemical exposure can impact health, researchers need tools that capture the complexities of personal chemical exposure. In practice, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air quality index (AQI) data from outdoor stationary monitors and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke density data from satellites are often used as proxies for personal chemical exposure, but do not capture total chemical exposure. Silicone wristbands can quantify more individualized exposure data than stationary air monitors or smoke satellites. However, it is not understood how these proxy measurements compare to chemical data measured from wristbands. In this study, participants wore daily wristbands, carried a phone that recorded locations, and answered daily questionnaires for a 7-day period in multiple seasons. We gathered publicly available daily PM 2.5 AQI data and HMS data. We analyzed wristbands for 94 organic chemicals, including 53 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Wristband chemical detections and concentrations, behavioral variables (e.g., time spent indoors), and environmental conditions (e.g., PM 2.5 AQI) significantly differed between seasons. Machine learning models were fit to predict personal chemical exposure using PM 2.5 AQI only, HMS only, and a multivariate feature set including PM 2.5 AQI, HMS, and other environmental and behavioral information. On average, the multivariate models increased predictive accuracy by approximately 70% compared to either the AQI model or the HMS model for all chemicals modeled. This study provides evidence that PM 2.5 AQI data alone or HMS data alone is insufficient to explain personal chemical exposures. Our results identify additional key predictors of personal chemical exposure.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗