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NASA NTRS2011

Advanced Gear Alloys for Ultra High Strength Applications

Single tooth bending fatigue (STBF) test data of UHS Ferrium C61 and C64 alloys are presented in comparison with historical test data of conventional gear steels (9310 and Pyrowear 53) with comparable statistical analysis methods. Pitting and scoring tests of C61 and C64 are works in progress. Boeing statistical analysis of STBF test data for the four gear steels (C61, C64, 9310 and Pyrowear 53) indicates that the UHS grades exhibit increases in fatigue strength in the low cycle fatigue (LCF) regime. In the high cycle fatigue (HCF) regime, the UHS steels exhibit better mean fatigue strength endurance limit behavior (particularly as compared to Pyrowear 53). However, due to considerable scatter in the UHS test data, the anticipated overall benefits of the UHS grades in bending fatigue have not been fully demonstrated. Based on all the test data and on Boeing s analysis, C61 has been selected by Boeing as the gear steel for the final ERDS demonstrator test gearboxes. In terms of potential follow-up work, detailed physics-based, micromechanical analysis and modeling of the fatigue data would allow for a better understanding of the causes of the experimental scatter, and of the transition from high-stress LCF (surface-dominated) to low-stress HCF (subsurface-dominated) fatigue failure. Additional STBF test data and failure analysis work, particularly in the HCF regime and around the endurance limit stress, could allow for better statistical confidence and could reduce the observed effects of experimental test scatter. Finally, the need for further optimization of the residual compressive stress profiles of the UHS steels (resulting from carburization and peening) is noted, particularly for the case of the higher hardness C64 material.

Shen, Tony↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning Bias: Planning as a Source of Sampling Bias

Many data-driven planning methods are trained on data generated by planners. It is well known that many statistical learning methods are sensitive to sampling bias, and yet there has been little or no attention to planning as a sampling method and its role in introducing sampling bias into planner-generated training data. Recently, it has been demonstrated that A**,* in the presence of problems with variable heuristic error, prefers some solutions over other equally cost-optimal solutions. But, as we discuss in this paper, mitigation may not be as simple as resolving arbitrary tie-breaking by sampling from ties uniformly at random. In this paper, we formalize an intuition of planning bias. We focus on problems which output a single solution. Diverse planning only complicates the problem by generalizing it to bias in the set of sets; we show how it is subject to bias in the single solution. We make some useful observations about deterministic algorithms in contrast to non-deterministic algorithms. We explain how information entropy may be a good way to measure planning bias, and discuss some issues in evaluating practical approaches to measurement. We address the intuition that uniform random tiebreaking should mitigate bias; and sketch a novel approach to constructing an appropriate random distribution for duplicate detection during forward search for unbiased A*. Finally, we suggest directions for future work.

Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2017

Vehicle track segmentation using higher order random fields

Here, we present an approach to segment vehicle tracks in coherent change detection images, a product of combining two synthetic aperture radar images taken at different times. The approach uses multiscale higher order random field models to capture track statistics, such as curvatures and their parallel nature, that are not currently utilized in existing methods. These statistics are encoded as 3-by-3 patterns at different scales. The model can complete disconnected tracks often caused by sensor noise and various environmental effects. Coupling the model with a simple classifier, our approach is effective at segmenting salient tracks. We improve the F-measure on a standard vehicle track data set to 0.963, up from 0.897 obtained by the current state-of-the-art method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of wind perturbation activity for the NSTS launches

A method for statistical analysis of wind perturbation activity is proposed for application in NSTS prelaunch assessment of the wind environment. Methods for comparing day-of-launch wind perturbation standard deviations with historical data at the launch site are described. A statistical model based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution is developed for the largest vector and component perturbations in a wind profile as a function of high-pass filter cutoff wavelength. Application of the model is proposed for assessing extreme perturbations within prelaunch sequential Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A causal data fusion method for the general exposure and outcome

Abstract With the advent of the big data era, the need to combine multiple individual data sets to draw causal effects arises naturally in many medical and biological applications. Especially each data set cannot measure enough confounders to infer the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this article, we extend the method proposed by a previous study to causal data fusion of more than two data sets without external validation and to a more general (continuous or discrete) exposure and outcome. Theoretically, we obtain the condition for identifiability of exposure effects using multiple individual data sources for the continuous or discrete exposure and outcome. The simulation results show that our proposed causal data fusion method has unbiased causal effect estimate and higher precision than traditional regression, meta‐analysis and statistical matching methods. We further apply our method to study the causal effect of BMI on glucose level in individuals with diabetes by combining two data sets. Our method is essential for causal data fusion and provides important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merging multiple individual data sources.

Li, Hongkai↗

DOE OSTI2022

A review of computing-based automated fault detection and diagnosis of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems

We report faults in Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems of buildings result in significant energy waste in building operation. With fast-growing sensing data availability and advancement in computing, computational modeling has demonstrated strong capability to detect and diagnose HVAC system faults, hence, ensuring efficient building operation. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art computing-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) for HVAC systems. Overall, the reviewed computing-based FDD methods are classified as two major approaches: knowledge-based and data-driven approaches. We then identify multiple important topics, including data availability, training data size, data quality, approach generality, capability, interpretability, and required modeling efforts, along with corresponding metrics to summarize the most updated FDD development. Generally, the knowledge-based approaches are further divided as physics-based modeling, Diagnostic Bayesian Network, and performance indicator-based methods while data-driven approaches include supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and regression and statistics-based methods. State-of-the-art FDD development, remaining challenges, and future research directions are further discussed to push forward FDD in practice. Availability of fault data, capability of existing methods to deal with complex fault situations (such as simultaneous faults), modeling interpretability for data-driven methods, and required engineering efforts for physics-based methods are identified as remaining challenges in FDD development. Improving modeling fidelity and reducing modeling efforts are essential for applying physics-based methods in real buildings. Meanwhile, addressing fault data availability, increasing algorithm adaptability, and handling multiple faults are essential to further enhance the applicability of data-driven FDD approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

High temperature operation of wide bandgap devices continue to be a challenge for the power electronics packages. Thermal performance and reliability are important factors that determine the viability of a bonded interface for operation at high temperatures. In this presentation, we present the technical approach and key results from the research on sintered silver, transient liquid phase alloy, and polymeric materials. A lifetime prediction model that incorporates the thermomechanical behavior of sintered silver at 200C was developed. The copper-aluminum transient alloy completed 350 thermal cycles from -40C to 200C and little increase in the defect level was observed. In addition to material research, we initiated a time-series analysis on the scanning acoustic microscope images of eutectic solder to explore statistical forecasting methods and machine learning techniques. Initial results that report the accuracy of a few different statistical models are presented.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.

Hanson, John M.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Reliable noise measure in time-gated NMR data

Time gating is a commonly used approach in the pre-processing of nuclear magnetic resonance data before inversion. Gating suppresses spurious signals that can degrade recovered decay time distributions and therefore often stabilizes inversion. However, care must be taken in applying this technique when assumptions of uncorrelated Gaussianity break down and reduce stacking efficiency. If not properly accounted for, unreliable noise estimates introduce inversion artefacts through over- or underfitting of the data. Block-bootstrap resampling of noise realization proxies obtained through data phasing can be used to generate reliable noise estimates for the windows. Benefits of the approach are demonstrated through inversion of synthetic and borehole data. Finally, analysis confirms that bootstrapped noise metrics are more reliable under variable noise conditions and result in more stable inversion results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning emulators for nuclear two-body scattering in momentum space

In this work we extend the active learning emulators for two-body scattering in coordinate space with error estimation, recently developed by Maldonado et al. [Phys. Rev. C 112, 024002], to coupled-channel scattering in momentum space. Our full-order model (FOM) solver is based on the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation for the scattering t-matrix as opposed to the radial Schrödinger equation. We use (Petrov-)Galerkin projections and high-fidelity calculations at a few snapshots across the parameter space of the interaction to construct efficient reduced-order models (ROMs), trained by a greedy algorithm for locally optimal snapshot selection. Both the FOM solver and the corresponding ROMs are implemented efficiently in Python using Google's JAX library. We present results for emulating scattering phase shifts in coupled and uncoupled channels and cross sections, and assess the accuracy of the developed ROMs and their computational speedup factors. We also develop emulator error estimation for both the t-matrix and the total cross section. The software framework for reproducing and extending our results is publicly available. Together with our recent advances in developing active-learning emulators for three-body scattering, these emulator frameworks set the stage for full Bayesian calibrations of chiral nuclear interactions and optical models against scattering data with quantified emulator errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-BRB-05: Quantum Learning for Knowledge-Based Response-Adaptive Radiotherapy

Purpose: There is tremendous excitement in radiotherapy about applying data-driven methods to develop personalized clinical decisions for real-time response-based adaptation. However, classical statistical learning methods lack in terms of efficiency and ability to predict outcomes under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore, we are investigating physics-inspired machine learning approaches by utilizing quantum principles for developing a robust framework to dynamically adapt treatments to individual patient’s characteristics and optimize outcomes. Methods: We studied 88 liver SBRT patients with 35 on non-adaptive and 53 on adaptive protocols. Adaptation was based on liver function using a split-course of 3+2 fractions with a month break. The radiotherapy environment was modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) of baseline and one month into treatment states. The patient environment was modeled by a 5-variable state represented by patient’s clinical and dosimetric covariates. For comparison of classical and quantum learning methods, decision-making to adapt at one month was considered. The MDP objective was defined by the complication-free tumor control (P{sup +}=TCPx(1-NTCP)). A simple regression model represented state-action mapping. Single bit in classical MDP and a qubit of 2-superimposed states in quantum MDP represented the decision actions. Classical decision selection was done using reinforcement Q-learning and quantum searching was performed using Grover’s algorithm, which applies uniform superposition over possible states and yields quadratic speed-up. Results: Classical/quantum MDPs suggested adaptation (probability amplitude ≥0.5) 79% of the time for splitcourses and 100% for continuous-courses. However, the classical MDP had an average adaptation probability of 0.5±0.22 while the quantum algorithm reached 0.76±0.28. In cases where adaptation failed, classical MDP yielded 0.31±0.26 average amplitude while the quantum approach averaged a more optimistic 0.57±0.4, but with high phase fluctuations. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that quantum machine learning approaches provide a feasible and promising framework for real-time and sequential clinical decision-making in adaptive radiotherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Quantile Data Analysis of Image Data

Quantile data analysis and functional statistical inference methods are introduced and applied to provide representations of spectral data which may lead to simple statistical discriminators effective for the estimation of ground truth from satellite spectral measurements. To estimate the ground truth of a pixel, the probability of each possible ground truth is estimated, given observed (estimated) quantile theoretic statistical characteristics of the multispectral image data corresponding to the pixel and its neighboring pixels. A strategy for determining which statistical characteristics discriminate best is described. Results are reported of quantile data analysis of an extensive collection of training files of image data.

Parzen, E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Magnetic reversal spurts: Rain gauges for comet showers

Abrupt increases in the rate of magnetic reversals (magnetic reversal spurts) were first studied by many others. They hypothesized that spurts result from increased turbulence in the earth's core dynamo during episodes of intense bolide bombardment of the earth. Mechanisms for creating episodes of intense bombardment of the earth involve gravitational perturbation of the Oort cloud of comets, either by a hidden planet, a solar companion, or massive matter in the galactic plane. Herein, the time variation in reversal rate is analyzed using methods of statistical density estimation. A smooth, continuous estimate of reversal rate is obtained using an adaptive kernel method, in which the kernel width is adjusted as a function of reversal rate. The estimates near the ends of the data series (at 165 my ago and the present) are obtained by extending the data by reflection. The results show that the reversal spurts are not associated demonstrably with extinctions or well-dated impacts. If the spurts do record episodes of intense bombardment of the earth, then the mass extinctions do not, in general, occur at times of impacts. Furthermore, the large impact craters seen are not obviously related to the spurts, suggesting that the craters may have been caused by bolides of a different nature and with a different temporal pattern. However, the most simple explanation seems to be that the spurts do not record comet showers, either because the recording mechanism suggested by Muller and Morris is not effective or because comet showers are not triggered in the ways considered by Hut et al.

Lutz, T. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Voids in the Ly-alpha forest

The general issue of using the Ly-alpha absorbers in quasar spectra as tracers of the large-scale matter distribution is discussed, emphasizing complications due to evolutionary effects and line blending. Then, a novel method of statistical analysis of the line data appropriate for studying large-scale structure is described. This method circumvents the problem of line blending by truncating the interval distribution at the low end. It also explicitly takes z-dependent effects into account. As an example, the method is applied to an 18-quasar spectrum sample of 417 lines.

Duncan, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A New Concurrent Multiscale Methodology for Coupling Molecular Dynamics and Finite Element Analyses

The coupling of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with finite element methods (FEM) yields computationally efficient models that link fundamental material processes at the atomistic level with continuum field responses at higher length scales. The theoretical challenge involves developing a seamless connection along an interface between two inherently different simulation frameworks. Various specialized methods have been developed to solve particular classes of problems. Many of these methods link the kinematics of individual MD atoms with FEM nodes at their common interface, necessarily requiring that the finite element mesh be refined to atomic resolution. Some of these coupling approaches also require simulations to be carried out at 0 K and restrict modeling to two-dimensional material domains due to difficulties in simulating full three-dimensional material processes. In the present work, a new approach to MD-FEM coupling is developed based on a restatement of the standard boundary value problem used to define a coupled domain. The method replaces a direct linkage of individual MD atoms and finite element (FE) nodes with a statistical averaging of atomistic displacements in local atomic volumes associated with each FE node in an interface region. The FEM and MD computational systems are effectively independent and communicate only through an iterative update of their boundary conditions. With the use of statistical averages of the atomistic quantities to couple the two computational schemes, the developed approach is referred to as an embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM). ESCM provides an enhanced coupling methodology that is inherently applicable to three-dimensional domains, avoids discretization of the continuum model to atomic scale resolution, and permits finite temperature states to be applied.

Yamakov, Vesselin↗

NASA NTRS2024

Interpretable Machine Learning for Molecular Biosignatures: a Novel Single-Sample Feature Importance Method That Is Sensitive To Statistical Interactions

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.

geochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collective mode Brownian dynamics: A method for fast relaxation of statistical ensembles

Sampling equilibrium configurations of correlated systems of particles with long relaxation times (e.g., polymeric solutions) using conventional molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods can be challenging. This is especially true for systems with complicated, extended bond network topologies and other interactions that make the use and design of specialized relaxation protocols infeasible. We introduce a method based on Brownian dynamics simulations that can reduce the computational time it takes to reach equilibrium and draw decorrelated samples. Importantly, the method is completely agnostic to the particle configuration and the specifics of interparticle forces. In particular, we develop a mobility matrix that excites non-local, collective motion of N particles and can be computed efficiently in $\mathcal{O}(N)$ time. Particle motion in this scheme is computed by integrating the overdamped Langevin equation with an Euler–Maruyama scheme, in which Brownian displacements are drawn efficiently using a low-rank representation of the mobility matrix in position and wave space. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method with various examples from the realm of soft condensed matter and release a massively parallel implementation of the code as a plugin for the open-source package HOOMD-blue [J. A. Anderson et al., J. Comput. Phys. 227, 5342 (2008) and J. Glaser et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 192, 97 (2015)] which runs on graphics processing units

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗