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Precursor Analysis Report: SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003

The SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about Davis-Besse’s 2003 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 25 January 2003, the SQL Slammer worm infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts and crashed the internet in 10 to 15 minutes, making it one of the fastest spreading worms in history. SQL Slammer is a fileless, memory-resident worm that remotely exploits a stack-based buffer overflow vulnerability on local hosts to intensively scan and rapidly self-propagate across the internet. The worm infected approximately 300,000 unpatched hosts running Microsoft Structured Query Language (SQL) Server 2000 or Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 with SQL Server Resolution Service. The SQL Slammer worm indirectly infected FirstEnergy’s Davis-Besse nuclear power plant by first infecting a consultant’s company network server and then propagating through an external misconfigured connection into Davis-Besse’s site network. The infection caused major network congestion, slow performance, data overloads, and the inability of local hosts to communicate with each other, which eventually caused a loss of availability and a loss of view when the Safety Parameter Display System (SPDS) and Plant Process Computer (PPC) crashed. At the time of the infection, the plant was already offline, the digital monitoring systems had redundant analog backups, and the plant control and safety functions were not affected, so there were no concerns of a safety breach. However, this incident resulted in many lessons learned and spawned important discussions about cybersecurity’s role in nuclear safety and electric power reliability regulation, policy, and guidance. Researchers and analysts identified 10 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 640 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Eight of the identified techniques used during Davis-Besse cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 596 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 428 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 331 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

An Analysis of the Impact of Particle Growth on Transport Losses in Polymer-Electrolyte Fuel Cells

Voltage cycling causes catalyst nanoparticles in polymer-electrolyte fuel cells to grow. The concomitant loss of interfacial area results in larger kinetic, transport, and possibly ohmic overpotentials. This paper uses recently published experimental data and mathematical models to investigate the evolutions of transport and ohmic resistances to platinum nanoparticles located on the surface and inside the micropores of carbon black supports. Resistance to oxygen transport rises as surface area declines primarily because the flux to each remaining larger platinum particle increases. The path lengths governing oxygen diffusion to surface and buried platinum sites also increase as nanoparticles grow. Platinum nanoparticles on the surface become relatively less favorable as voltage cycling proceeds because they grow faster than platinum in micropores. Because voltage cycling causes total interfacial area to decline, and the fraction located inside micropores to increase, nanoscale ohmic losses increase as a catalyst layer decays. The practical importance of this effect is difficult to discern because proton conductivity in carbon micropores is not well characterized.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Effect of hydrophobic ionic liquids aqueous solubility on metal extraction from hydrochloric acid media: Mathematical modelling and trivalent thallium behavior

A mathematical model to explain cations’ solubility of both protic and aprotic ionic liquids in a wide range of hydrochloric acid solutions has been developed. The concept of this model is based on an assumption of the mineral acid extraction into the organic phase, formation of a salt there between an ionic liquid cation and chloride-anion due to ions recombination and partial salt back-extraction. The proposed approach allows estimating corresponding extraction constants. Comparison of calculated and experimentally measured solubility product constants shows that they are in good agreement. It has been determined also that the more the hydrophilicity of the ionic liquids’ cation the more hydrochloric acid is extracted. Furthermore, this model has been utilized to facilitate analysis of thallium transfer into hydrophobic ionic liquids providing insights into the mechanism of metal extraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Toward a sustainable circular economy of multilayer plastic films: Life cycle and techno-economic assessment with a focus on end-of-life treatment and multiple recovery cycles

This study presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of end-of-life technologies for treating polyethylene–polyamide barrier film waste, focusing on quality degradation across recovery cycles. Novel treatment methods are experimentally validated, while others are drawn from literature and industry consultations. A displacement approach, assuming no quality loss, is first applied. Results show that solvent-based recycling via the solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP) process outperforms alternatives across environmental indicators, reducing global warming potential (GWP) by 40% compared to landfilling. Incineration performs worst in most categories, particularly eutrophication (80% higher than landfilling), due to nitrogen emissions. Experimentally validated downcycling (pelletizing) proves more economically viable. The assumption of infinite recoverability is overly optimistic. To address this, we propose a mathematical framework accounting for a finite number of recovery cycles. This refined model shows reduced GWP and cost savings for solvent recovery, making its benefits less pronounced than initially estimated. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses reveal strong dependence on recovered material quality and solvent recovery efficiency, underscoring the need for optimized process design. Finally, hotspot analysis identifies greenhouse gas emissions from the polyamide supply chain as the dominant GWP contributor. In conclusion, the results underscore potential trade-offs across pathways and show that solvent-based recovery’s sustainability depends heavily on process conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Background independent quantum field theory and gravitating vacuum fluctuations

The scale dependent effective average action for quantum gravity complies with the fundamental principle of Background Independence. Ultimately the background metric it formally depends on is selected self-consistently by means of a tadpole condition, a generalization of Einstein’s equation. Self-consistent background spacetimes are scale dependent, and therefore “going on-shell” at the points along a given renormalization group (RG) trajectory requires understanding two types of scale dependencies: the (familiar) direct one carried by the off-shell action functional, and an equally important indirect one related to the continual re-adjustment of the background geometry. This paper is devoted to a careful delineation and analysis of certain general questions concerning the indirect scale dependence, as well as a detailed explicit investigation of the case where the self-consistent metrics are determined predominantly by the RG running of the cosmological constant. Mathematically, the object of interest is the spectral flow induced by the background Laplacian which, on-shell, acquires an explicit scale dependence. Among other things, it encodes the complete information about the specific set of field modes which, at any given scale, are the degrees of freedom constituting the respective effective field theory. For a large class of RG trajectories (Type IIIa) we discover a seemingly paradoxical behavior that differs substantially from the off-shell based expectations: A Background Independent theory of (matter coupled) quantum gravity looses rather than gains degrees of freedom at increasing energies. As an application, we investigate to what extent it is possible to reformulate the exact theory in terms of matter and gravity fluctuations on a rigid flat space. It turns out that, in vacuo, this “rigid picture” breaks down after a very short RG time already (less than one decade of scales) because of a “scale horizon” that forms. Furthermore, we critically reanalyze and refute the frequent claim that the huge energy densities one obtains in standard quantum field theory by summing up to zero-point energies imply a naturalness problem for the observed small value of the cosmological constant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Understanding Hepatitis B Virus Dynamics and the Antiviral Effect of Interferon Alpha Treatment in Humanized Chimeric Mice

Whereas the mode of action of lamivudine (LAM) against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is well established, the inhibition mechanism(s) of interferon alpha (IFN-α) is less completely defined. To advance our understanding, we, for this study, mathematically modeled HBV kinetics during 14-day pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN), LAM, or pegIFN-plus-LAM (pegIFN+LAM) treatment of 39 chronically HBV-infected humanized uPA/SCID chimeric mice. Serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA were measured frequently. We developed a multicompartmental mathematical model and simultaneously fit it to the serum and intracellular HBV DNA data. Unexpectedly, even in the absence of an adaptive immune response, a biphasic decline in serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA was observed in response to all treatments. Kinetic analysis and modeling indicate that the first phase represents inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis and secretion, which was similar under all treatments with an overall mean efficacy of 98%. In contrast, there were distinct differences in HBV decline during the second phase, which was accounted for in the model by a time-dependent inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis, with the steepest decline observed during pegIFN+LAM treatment (1.28/day) and the slowest (0.1/day) during pegIFN monotherapy. Reminiscent of observations in patients treated with pegIFN and/or LAM, a biphasic HBV decline was observed in treated humanized mice in the absence of an adaptive immune response. Interestingly, combination treatment did not increase the initial inhibition of HBV production but rather enhanced second-phase decline, providing insight into the dynamics of HBV treatment response and the mode of action of IFN-α against HBV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How analytic choices can affect the extraction of electromagnetic form factors from elastic electron scattering cross section data

Scientists often try to incorporate prior knowledge into their regression algorithms, such as a particular analytic behavior or a known value at a kinematic endpoint. Unfortunately, there is often no unique way to make use of this prior knowledge, and thus, different analytic choices can lead to very different regression results from the same set of data. In this paper, to illustrate this point in the context of the proton electromagnetic form factors, we use the Mainz elastic data with its 1422 cross section points and 31 normalization parameters. Starting with a complex unbound non-linear regression, we will show how the addition of a single theory-motivated constraint removes an oscillation from the magnetic form factor and shifts the extracted proton charge radius. We then repeat both regressions using the same algorithm, but with a rebinned version of the Mainz dataset. These examples illustrate how analytic choices, such as the function that is being used or even the binning of the data, can dramatically affect the results of a complex regression. These results also demonstrate why it is critical when using regression algorithms to have either a physical model in mind or a firm mathematical basis

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Conservative and Accurate Solution Transfer Between High-Order and Low-Order Refined Finite Element Spaces

Here, in this paper, we introduce general transfer operators between high-order and low-order refined finite element spaces that can be used to couple high-order and low-order simulations. Under natural restrictions on the low-order refined space we prove that both the high-to-low-order and low-to-high-order linear mappings are conservative, constant preserving, and high-order accurate. While the proof holds for affine geometries, numerical experiments indicate that the results hold for more general curved meshes. We present several numerical results confirming our analysis and demonstrate the utility of the new mappings in the context of adaptive mesh refinement and conservative multidiscretization coupling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

gamut: A Geospatial R Package to Analyze Multisectoral Urban Teleconnections

Most cities in the United States withdraw surface water to meet public water supply needs. The lands on which this water is generated are often developed for human activities -- such as agriculture, mining, and industry -- that may compete for water resources or contaminate water supplies. Cities are thereby connected to other sectors through their water supply catchments. This connection is an example of an multisectoral urban teleconnection. The Geospatial Analytics for Multisectoral Urban Teleconnections (``gamut``) package provides national-scale information on these teleconnections by combining land use data with hydrological analysis to characterize urban source watershed human interactions across the conterminous United States.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability (Final)

Scientific applications run on high-performance computing (HPC) systems are critical for many national security missions within Sandia and the NNSA complex. However, these applications often face performance degradation and even failures that are challenging to diagnose. To provide unprecedented insight into these issues, the HPC Development, HPC Systems, Computational Science, and Plasma Theory & Simulation departments at Sandia crafted and completed their FY21 ASC Level 2 milestone entitled "Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability." The milestone created a novel integrated HPC system and application monitoring and analysis capability by extending Sandia’s Kokkos application portability framework, Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) monitoring tool, and scalable storage, analysis, and visualization pipeline. The extensions to Kokkos and LDMS enable collection and storage of application data during run time, as it is generated, with negligible overhead. This data is combined with HPC system data within the extended analysis pipeline to present relevant visualizations of derived system and application metrics that can be viewed at run time or post run. This new capability was evaluated using several week-long, 290-node runs of Sandia’s ElectroMagnetic Plasma In Realistic Environments (EMPIRE) modeling and design tool and resulted in 1TB of application data and 50TB of system data. EMPIRE developers remarked this capability was incredibly helpful for quickly assessing application health and performance alongside system state. In short, this milestone work built the foundation for expansive HPC system and application data collection, storage, analysis, visualization, and feedback framework that will increase total scientific output of Sandia’s HPC users.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Relationship Extraction: Automatic Information Extraction and Organization for Supporting Analysts in Threat Assessment

In order for analysts to be able to do their work, they sift through hundreds, thousands, or even millions of documents to make connections between entities of interest. This process is time consuming, tedious, and prone to potential error from missed connections or connections made that should not have been. There exist many tools in natural language processing, or NLP, to extract information from documents. However, when it comes to relationship extraction, there has been varied success. This project began with a goal to solve the relationship extraction problem which developed into a deeper understanding of the problem and the associated challenges for solving this problem on a general scale. In this report, we explain our research and approach to relationship extraction, identify other auxiliary problems in NLP that provide additional challenges to solving relationship extraction generally, explain our analysis of the current state of relationship extraction, and postulate future work to address these problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Knowledge Management Analysis for Content Migration

This Content Migration Plan provides a framework and methodology for managing and executing the migration of content to the NEFC Program’s on-premises SharePoint 2016 instance, as well as guidelines regarding how to ensure that Knowledge Management Program content, both during and after the migration, is tagged properly. Analysis continues to develop a migration plan for a SharePoint Online instance in a Cloud environment.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Validation of Nuclear Data Sensitivity Calculations by the MCNP PERT Card [Poster]

This work validates a method of estimating sensitivities that utilized the MCNP PERT card and tallies. The agreement of the PERT card and Brute Force results proves the validity of calculating nuclear data sensitivities by use of the MCNP PERT card, especially at higher energies. The overall agreement will be easier to understand once an uncertainty analysis is completed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Integrated Research Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint Activity (Final Report 2023)

The complexity of scientific pursuits is increasing rapidly with aspects that require dynamic integration of experiment, observation, theory, modeling, simulation, visualization, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and analysis. Research projects across the Department of Energy (DOE) are increasingly data and compute intensive. Innovative research teams are accelerating the pace of discovery by using high-performance computational and data tools in their research workflows and leveraging multiple research infrastructures. Additionally, several recent high-level U.S. government reports underscore the necessity of a new advanced computing ecosystem for international competitiveness and national security. International competitors are moving forward with major research infrastructure integration efforts that seek to capture a competitive advantage in the global innovation race. Owing to its unparalleled constellation of world-class experimental and observational facilities and high-performance and extreme-scale computational, data, and networking infrastructure, DOE is positioned to be a global leader in this new era of integrated science. However, this new integration paradigm will demand continuing evolution to ensure the U.S. remains a global leader in research and innovation. The DOE Office of Science (SC) has seized on the strategic importance of integration and has adopted a vision for Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI): To empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. To respond to the evolving computational requirements of research and the competitive international innovation landscape, experimental facilities could be connected with high performance computing resources for near real-time analysis, and resources should be provided for merging enormous and diverse data for AI/ML techniques and analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗