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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning framework for accurate and robust analysis of radiation detector pulses

The microscopic properties of atomic nuclei are used to study various scientific questions. They are essential for understanding the fundamental forces of nature and the chemical evolution of the universe. Detecting decay radiation from radioactive nuclei makes it possible to probe these fundamental nuclear properties. Detector waveform traces may contain additional information about the radiation. Generally, advanced signal processing techniques are needed to extract this additional information, often involving fitting the waveform with model response functions using non-linear least-squares optimization with second-order gradient methods. While this is a powerful technique, it is also computationally expensive, leading to slow processing time, which scales with the volume of data. To address this problem, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach that infers the characteristics of traces from a model detector response function. In particular, we are interested in classifying whether a single recorded trace consists of one or two pulse constituents and estimating the pulse parameters. Furthermore, our proposed ML method can precisely extract the pulses’ parameters, such as energy and timing information, and accurately classify the pulse multiplicity of a trace. Unlike non-learning-based approaches, our ML approach uses neural networks that are significantly faster at inference, as they do not require any optimization during this stage.

Curve fitting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dehydration-Driven Ion Aggregation and the Onset of Gelation in ZnCl2 Solution

A minimal model of ionic aggregation in concentrated ZnCl2 is developed, guided by molecular dynamics simulations with a machine-learned potential. It explicitly incorporates solvent-site depletion, correlated chloride binding, and allows for loops within Zn–Cl clusters. Dehydration drives two coordination-controlled structural changes: a crossover at Z=2 from predominantly isolated Zn-containing species to Cl-bridged clusters and the onset of gelation near Z≈3. The model reproduces the concentration-dependent trends observed in the molecular dynamics simulations with two fitted parameters, while the cluster-size distribution at the highest concentration is consistent with three-dimensional percolation scaling over the accessible range of cluster sizes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implicit neural representations for experimental steering of advanced experiments

Scattering measurements using electrons, neutrons, or photons are essential for obtaining microscopic insights into materials. However, limited facility availability and high-dimensional scattering data necessitate more efficient experimental steering techniques. Here, we report a machine learning method that guides scattering data collection and facilitates real-time estimation of model parameters, given a reliable forward model to simulate experimental signals. We employ implicit neural representations as efficient surrogates that link model parameters with simulated spectroscopies. This enables a Bayesian optimal experimental design framework to estimate the probability distributions of parameters from high-dimensional scattering data. We demonstrate the proposed method using inelastic neutron scattering with simulated and real experimental data, highlighting the method’s ability to provide real-time parameter estimation with quantified uncertainties and to deliver informed experimental guidance that reduces experimental time while maximizing scientific output. This approach paves the way for accelerated discoveries in condensed matter through scattering measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Operator learning for energy-efficient building ventilation control with computational fluid dynamics simulation of a real-world classroom

Energy-efficient ventilation control plays an important role in reducing building energy consumption while ensuring occupant health and comfort. While Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations provide detailed and physically accurate representations of indoor airflow, their high computational cost limits their use in real-time building control. In this work, we present a neural operator learning framework that combines the physical accuracy of CFD with the computational efficiency of machine learning to enable building ventilation control with the high-fidelity fluid dynamics models. Our method jointly optimizes the airflow supply rates and vent angles to reduce energy use and adhere to air quality constraints. We train an ensemble of neural operator transformer models to learn the mapping from building control actions to airflow fields using high-resolution CFD data. This learned neural operator is then embedded in an optimization-based control framework for building ventilation control. Experimental results show that our approach achieves significant energy savings compared to maximum airflow rate control, rule-based control, as well as data-driven control methods using spatially averaged CO 2 prediction and deep learning–based reduced-order models, while consistently maintaining safe indoor air quality. These results highlight the practicality and scalability of our method in maintaining energy efficiency and indoor air quality in real-world buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Guided Optimization of SABRE Hyperpolarization for α-Ketoglutarate in Acetone–Water

Signal amplification by reversible exchange (SABRE) is a hyperpolarization method that polarizes target nuclei of metabolites quickly and efficiently. Recent SABRE advances, including Ace-SABRE, yield biocompatible, aqueous solutions of hyperpolarized markers for metabolic monitoring. Building on recent advancements, expanding the substrate scope of Ace-SABRE is desirable. However, SABRE polarization is sensitive to many different parameters; therefore, traditional optimization approaches are experimentally time-consuming. In this proof-of-concept application of machine learning (ML), Bayesian optimization (BO) is used for four important input parameters to model the complex SABRE dynamics while saving experimental time. The presented ML model also provides chemical insights that enable predictions of sample compositions for increased polarization levels. In this paper, we transition from an original average free polarization of p = ∼0.90% to a maximum observed free polarization of p = ∼6.6% for 1- 13 C alpha-ketoglutarate (AKG) with 13 C at natural abundance, utilizing both direct outputs as well as chemical insights revealed by the ML model.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

pnnl/glad

The Graph-based Learning of Aerosol Dynamics (GLAD) package implements a Graph Network-based Simulator (GNS), a machine learning framework that has been used to simulate particle-based fluid dynamics models

Smith, Ian [@pnnl]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing the Parameter Dependency of Phase-Picking Neural Networks with Dice Loss

Training a neural network for picking seismic phase arrivals has been commonly posed as a segmentation problem. It is a highly imbalanced segmentation problem in the sense that the background vastly dominates the foreground because we are trying to pick the optimal single sample point that represents the arrival of a seismic phase in a many seconds long time window. Here, we test the Dice loss, which is a preferred loss function for highly imbalanced image segmentation problems. We show that phase-picking neural networks trained on the Dice loss behave in a binary fashion for which the prediction output is almost always either nearly 1 or nearly 0. This feature removes the strong dependence of data processing workflows on the prediction score threshold, which is an otherwise critical parameter to determine when using neural networks trained on the cross-entropy loss. When strategically used, models trained on the Dice loss can reduce the parameter dependency of machine learning-based seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark QCD: the Next Frontier in Dark Matter

There has been a surge of interest in hidden valley models with new, strong forces, sometimes called "dark QCD". These models propose asymmetric, composite dark matter in the form of "dark hadrons" that would evade direct and indirect bounds as well as typical collider DM searches for large missing transverse momentum accompanied by radiation. However, evidence of these models can still be found in collider datasets by targeting their unique phenomenological signatures, which include semivisible jets, emerging jets, and soft unclustered energy patterns. We will present the latest experimental results for these signatures and discuss the significant strides in exploring the vast space of dark QCD models. We will further discuss the prospects for dramatic expansions in sensitivity via machine learning.

Pedro, Kevin [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering Structure–Conductivity Relationships in Anion Exchange Membranes (AEMs) Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) play a vital role in the performance of water electrolyzers and fuel cells, yet their discovery and optimization remain challenging due to the complexity of structure–property relationships. In this study, we introduce a machine learning framework that leverages conditional graph neural networks (cGNNs) and descriptor-based models and a hybrid graph neural network (HGARE) to predict and interpret ionic conductivity. The descriptor-based pipeline employs principal component analysis (PCA), ablation, and SHAP analysis to identify factors governing anion conductivity, revealing electronic, topological, and compositional descriptors as key contributors. Beyond prediction, dimensionality reduction and clustering are performed by employing t-SNE and KMeans as well as SOM, which reveal distinct membranes clusters, some of which were enriched with high anion conductivity. Among graph-based approaches, the graph convolutional (GCN) achieved strong predictive performance, while the Hybrid Graph Autoencoder-Regressor Ensemble (HGARE) achieved the highest accuracy. Additionally, atom-level saliency maps from GCN provide spatial explanations for conductive behavior, revealing the importance of polarizable and flexible regions. This work contributes to the accelerated and data-driven design of high-performance AEMs.

Naghshnejad, Pegah [Department of Chemical Enginee↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of top-down and bottom-up global terrestrial respiration estimates and their mismatch with model simulations

Terrestrial respiration is one of the most poorly understood processes in the global carbon cycle, making respiration predictions uncertain. However, expanding observations and machine learning approaches have led to a proliferation of estimates. We compiled total ecosystem and heterotrophic respiration estimates derived from top-down atmospheric inversions and bottom-up upscaling of ecosystem observations and compared them with dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) simulations over the 1980-2020 period. Our analysis revealed a convergence in mean annual global total ecosystem respiration estimates between top-down 97.1 (± SD 6.8) PgC yr-1 and bottom-up 98.5 (+/-13.4) PgC yr-1, which were both significantly lower than the ensemble mean from DGVMs estimates 133.7 (±4.7) PgC yr-1. We also found similar temporal trends between top-down estimates with a mean of 0.075 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, and bottom-up estimates of 0.05 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, which were 5 to 7 times smaller than the ensemble mean trend of 0.34 PgC yr-2 simulated by DGVMs. Global heterotrophic respiration showed much less agreement, ranging from top-down estimates of 42.7 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 to bottom-up estimates of 51.5 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 and a significantly larger ensemble model mean estimate of 60.8 PgC yr-1 (±1.9). The temporal trends in observation-based bottom-up estimates of heterotrophic respiration of 0.03 PgC yr-2 were five times lower than the model ensemble mean 0.15 PgC yr-2. Large regional disagreements in heterotrophic respiration estimates and simulations were evident in tropical and boreal latitudes. Therefore, improved regional and heterotrophic respiration estimates are necessary to reduce uncertainties regarding the future vulnerability of soil carbon.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining nuclear mass models using 𝑟-process observables with multiobjective optimization

Modeling nuclear masses, particularly for nuclei far from stability, remains a key objective in nuclear physics. One contemporary approach is machine learning (ML), which trains on experimental data, but can suffer large errors when extrapolating toward neutron-rich species. In nature, such masses shape observables for the rapid neutron capture process (𝑟 process), which in principle could inform ML models. Here, we introduce a multiobjective optimization approach using the Pareto front algorithm. We show that this technique, capable of identifying models that generate 𝑟-process abundances aligning with both solar and stellar data, is a promising method to select ML models with reliable extrapolation power.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Foundation models for atomistic simulation of chemistry and materials

Conventional computational methods for modeling chemical and materials systems are limited by system size and timescale, forcing a trade-off between quantum-mechanical accuracy and the sampling needed for realistic observables. Large language and vision foundation models — pre-trained on massive datasets using transformer architectures — have revolutionized many fields. It is thus interesting to ask whether a foundation model — subject to suitable data, parameter scaling and training — could enable learned simulations of chemistry and materials. Here, in this study, we review the field of machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) and posit that scaling up large and diverse chemical and materials datasets and highly expressive architectures using advanced training strategies should result in models that are: more efficient, transferable, robust to out-of-distribution scenarios, and easier to fine-tune to a variety of downstream physical observables than models trained from scratch on small datasets corresponding to specific, targeted atomistic simulation tasks. We provide specific criteria for creating such large-scale MLIP foundation models, coordinated strategies for their development, evaluation and deployment, and highlight potential emergent capabilities that could transform predictive simulations in chemistry and materials science and accelerate discovery across multiple technological domains.

Yuan, Eric C.-Y. [University of California, Berkel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine-Learning-Guided Insights into Solid-Electrolyte Interphase Conductivity: Are Amorphous Lithium Fluorophosphates the Key?

Despite decades of study, the identity of the dominant Li + -conducting phase within the inorganic SEI of Li-ion batteries remains unresolved. While the mosaic model describes LiF/Li 2 O/Li 2 CO 3 nanocrystallites within a disordered matrix, these crystalline phases inherently offer limited ionic conductivity. Growing evidence suggests that interfaces, grain boundaries, and amorphous phases may instead host the primary fast-ion pathways. Using diffusion-based generative structure prediction and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), we investigate lithium difluorophosphate (LiPO 2 F 2 ), a key mixed-anion decomposition product of phosphorus- and fluorine-containing electrolytes. We identify a stable crystalline polymorph and demonstrate that the amorphous counterpart is conductive, with projected room-temperature σ ≈ 0.18 mS cm –1 and E a ≈ 0.40 eV. Here, this enhancement stems from structural disorder flattening the Li site-energy landscape and a low formation energy for Li-interstitial defects, which supplies additional mobile carriers. We propose amorphous mixed-anion Li-P-O-F phases as a promising conducting medium in the SEI, offering a specific target for engineering improved battery interfaces.

Zhong, Peichen [University of California, Berkeley↗