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DOE OSTI2022

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sage: parallel semi-asymmtric graph algorithms for NVRAMs

Non-volatile main memory (NVRAM) technologies provide an attractive set of features for large-scale graph analytics, including byte-addressability, low idle power, and improved memory-density. NVRAM systems today have an order of magnitude more NVRAM than traditional memory (DRAM). NVRAM systems could therefore potentially allow very large graph problems to be solved on a single machine, at a modest cost. However, a significant challenge in achieving high performance is in accounting for the fact that NVRAM writes can be much more expensive than NVRAM reads. In this paper, we propose an approach to parallel graph analytics using the Parallel Semi-Asymmetric Model (PSAM), in which the graph is stored as a read-only data structure (in NVRAM), and the amount of mutable memory is kept proportional to the number of vertices. Similar to the popular semi-external and semi-streaming models for graph analytics, the PSAM approach assumes that the vertices of the graph fit in a fast read-write memory (DRAM), but the edges do not. In NVRAM systems, our approach eliminates writes to the NVRAM, among other benefits. To experimentally study this new setting, we develop Sage, a parallel semi-asymmetric graph engine with which we implement provably-efficient (and often work-optimal) PSAM algorithms for over a dozen fundamental graph problems. We experimentally study Sage using a 48--core machine on the largest publicly-available real-world graph (the Hyperlink Web graph with over 3.5 billion vertices and 128 billion edges) equipped with Optane DC Persistent Memory, and show that Sage outperforms the fastest prior systems designed for NVRAM. Importantly, we also show that Sage nearly matches the fastest prior systems running solely in DRAM, by effectively hiding the costs of repeatedly accessing NVRAM versus DRAM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electron and photon energy calibration with the ATLAS detector using LHC Run 2 data

This paper presents the electron and photon energy calibration obtained with the ATLAS detector using 140 fb -1 of LHC proton-proton collision data recorded at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV between 2015 and 2018. Methods for the measurement of electron and photon energies are outlined, along with the current knowledge of the passive material in front of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter. The energy calibration steps are discussed in detail, with emphasis on the improvements introduced in this paper. The absolute energy scale is set using a large sample of Z-boson decays into electron-positron pairs, and its residual dependence on the electron energy is used for the first time to further constrain systematic uncertainties. The achieved calibration uncertainties are typically 0.05% for electrons from resonant Z-boson decays, 0.4% at E T ~ 10 GeV, and 0.3% at E T ~ 1 TeV; for photons at E T ~ 60 GeV, they are 0.2% on average. This is more than twice as precise as the previous calibration. The new energy calibration is validated using J/ψ → ee and radiative Z-boson decays.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pulse profile modelling of thermonuclear burst oscillations − I. The effect of neglecting variability

ABSTRACT We study the effects of the time-variable properties of thermonuclear X-ray bursts on modelling their millisecond-period burst oscillations. We apply the pulse profile modelling technique that is being used in the analysis of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer to infer masses, radii, and geometric parameters of neutron stars. By simulating and analysing a large set of models, we show that overlooking burst time-scale variability in temperatures and sizes of the hot emitting regions can result in substantial bias in the inferred mass and radius. To adequately infer neutron star properties, it is essential to develop a model for the time-variable properties or invest a substantial amount of computational time in segmenting the data into non-varying pieces. We discuss prospects for constraints from proposed future X-ray telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for heavy Majorana or Dirac neutrinos and right-handed $W$ gauge bosons in final states with charged leptons and jets in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for heavy right-handed Majorana or Dirac neutrinos N R and heavy right-handed gauge bosons W R is performed in events with energetic electrons or muons, with the same or opposite electric charge, and energetic jets. The search is carried out separately for topologies of clearly separated final-state products (“resolved” channel) and topologies with boosted final states with hadronic and/or leptonic products partially overlapping and reconstructed as a large-radius jet (“boosted” channel). The events are selected from pp collision data at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 collected by the ATLAS detector at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed. The results are interpreted within the theoretical framework of a left-right symmetric model, and lower limits are set on masses in the heavy right handed W R boson and N R plane. The excluded region extends to about m(W R ) = 6.4 TeV for both Majorana and Dirac N R neutrinos at m(N R ) < 1 TeV. N R with masses of less than 3.5 (3.6) TeV are excluded in the electron (muon) channel at m(W R ) = 4.8 TeV for the Majorana neutrinos, and lim its of m(N R ) up to 3.6 TeV for m(W R ) = 5.2 (5.0) TeV in the electron (muon) channel are set for the Dirac neutrinos. These constitute the most stringent exclusion limits to date for the model considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of genetic diversity, agronomic traits, and anthracnose resistance in the NPGS Sudan Sorghum Core collection

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS) sorghum core collection contains 3011 accessions randomly selected from 77 countries. Genomic and phenotypic characterization of this core collection is necessary to encourage and facilitate its utilization in breeding programs and to improve conservation efforts. In this study, we examined the genome sequences of 318 accessions belonging to the NPGS Sudan sorghum core set, and characterized their agronomic traits and anthracnose resistance response. We identified 183,144 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within or in proximity of 25,124 annotated genes using the genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) approach. The core collection was genetically highly diverse, with an average pairwise genetic distance of 0.76 among accessions. Population structure and cluster analysis revealed five ancestral populations within the Sudan core set, with moderate to high level of genetic differentiation. In total, 171 accessions (54%) were assigned to one of these populations, which covered 96% of the total genomic variation. Genome scan based on Tajima’s D values revealed two populations under balancing selection. Phenotypic analysis showed differences in agronomic traits among the populations, suggesting that these populations belong to different ecogeographical regions. A total of 55 accessions were resistant to anthracnose; these accessions could represent multiple resistance sources. Genome-wide association study based on fixed and random model Circulating Probability (farmCPU) identified genomic regions associated with plant height, flowering time, panicle length and diameter, and anthracnose resistance response. Integrated analysis of the Sudan core set and sorghum association panel indicated that a large portion of the genetic variation in the Sudan core set might be present in breeding programs but remains unexploited within some clusters of accessions. The NPGS Sudan core collection comprises genetically and phenotypically diverse germplasm with multiple anthracnose resistance sources. Population genomic analysis could be used to improve screening efforts and identify the most valuable germplasm for breeding programs. The new GBS data set generated in this study represents a novel genomic resource for plant breeders interested in mining the genetic diversity of the NPGS sorghum collection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Fiscal Years 2019-2021(Final Report)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is the leading public source of high-resolution solar resource data in the United States, with more than 166,000 users annually. This database represents the state of the art in satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that enables improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. Making the highest quality, state-of-the-art, regularly updated data sets available on a timely basis for users reduces costs of solar deployment by providing accurate information for siting studies and system output prediction, and thereby reduces levelized cost of energy. Also, high-resolution information from the NSRDB enables moving beyond levelized cost of energy when valuing the impact of renewables on the grid. Additionally, the NSRDB enables the integration of large amounts of solar on the grid by providing critical information about solar availability and variability that is used to enhance grid reliability and power quality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Route Optimization for Energy Efficient Airport Shuttle Operations - A Case Study from Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Air travel and requisite surface traffic supporting passenger arrival/departure constitutes a significant portion of travel and emissions in cities with large airports. An airport trip can segment into three parts namely: i) travel from a location in the city to the airport; ii) travel from a parking lot or rental car center to the terminal (i.e., within the airport premises), and iii) travel inside the terminal. Depending on the airport access mode all or a part of these legs comprise a traveler’s journey to the airport. The priority of airport ground transport management teams is to provide passengers with a seamless travel experience within the airport, so it is understandable that within airport shuttle routes might not be optimized for minimizing energy consumption. Solutions that meet the dual objective of reducing energy consumption from airport shuttle operations without compromising on passenger travel experience are key to improving system efficiency. There is currently a dearth of research and tools that can inform airports in making such decisions. Addressing this need, this research effort puts forth an optimization model that generates optimal shuttle routes for a given set of constraints, and a discrete-event simulator that evaluates the optimal solutions in a stochastic environment to understand the tradeoffs between passenger wait times, and within airport shuttle energy consumption. The proposed set of tools are tested in the context of optimizing airport shuttles routes within the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). In addition to shuttle spatial positioning, and passenger demand information, high-fidelity vehicle data was collected using data loggers installed on DFW shuttles. Results show that 20% energy reduction in shuttle operations is possible with a modest two-minute increase in average passenger wait times. The tools developed in this research effort are designed to be generalizable and can help optimize shuttle operations planning at any major airport.

air travel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Correlation between Spin and Orbital Dynamics during Laser-Induced Femtosecond Demagnetization

Spin and orbital angular momenta are two intrinsic properties of an electron and are responsible for the physics of a solid. How the spin and orbital evolve with respect to each other on several hundred femtoseconds is largely unknown, but it is at the center of laser-induced ultrafast demagnetization. In this paper, we introduce a concept of the spin–orbital correlation diagram, where spin angular momentum is plotted against orbital angular momentum, much like the position-velocity phase diagram in classical mechanics. We use four sets of highly accurate time-resolved X-ray magnetic circular dichroism data to construct four correlation diagrams for iron and cobalt. To our surprise, a pattern emerges. The trace on the correlation diagram for iron is an arc, and at the end of demagnetization, it has a pronounced cusp. The correlation diagram for cobalt is different and appears more linear but with kinks. We carry out first-principles calculations with two different methods: time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) and time-dependent Liouville density functional theory. These two methods agree that the experimental findings for both Fe and Co are not due to experimental errors. It is the spin–orbit coupling that correlates the spin dynamics to the orbital dynamics. Microscopically, Fe and Co have different orbital occupations, which leads to distinctive correlation diagrams. We believe that this correlation diagram presents a useful tool to better understand spin and orbital dynamics on an ultrafast time scale. A brief discussion on the magnetic anisotropy energy is also provided.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

DASEventNet: AI‐Based Microseismic Detection on Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data From the Utah FORGE Well 16A (78)‐32 Hydraulic Stimulation

Abstract Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has emerged as a promising seismic technology for monitoring microearthquakes (MEQs) with high spatial resolution. Efficient algorithms are needed for processing large DAS data volumes. This study introduces a deep learning (DL) model based on a Residual Convolutional Neural Network (ResNet) for detecting MEQs using DAS data, named as DASEventNet. The test data were collected from the Utah FORGE 16A (78)‐32 hydraulic stimulation experiments conducted in April 2022. The DASEventNet model achieves a remarkable accuracy of 100% when discriminating MEQs from noise in the raw test set of 260 examples. Surprisingly, the model identified weak MEQ signatures that have been manually categorized as noise. The decision‐making process with the model is decoded by the classic activation map, which illuminates learning features of the DASEventNet model. These features provide clear illustrations of weak MEQs and varied noise types. Finally, we apply the trained model to the entire period (∼7 days) of continuous DAS recordings and find that it discovers >5,700 new MEQs, previously unregistered in the public Silixa DAS catalog. The DASEventNet model significantly outperforms the traditional seismic method Short‐Term Average/Long‐Term Average (STA/LTA), which detected only 1,307 MEQs. The DASEventNet detection threshold is M w −1.80 compared to the minimum magnitude of M w −1.14 detected by STA/LTA. The spatiotemporal distribution of the newly identified MEQs defines an extensive stimulation zone and more accurately characterizes fracture geometry. Our results highlight the potential of DL for long‐term, real‐time microseismic monitoring that can improve enhanced geothermal systems and other activities that include subsurface hydraulic fracturing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Melampsora americana Population on Salix purpurea in the Great Lakes Region Is Highly Diverse with a Contributory Influence of Clonality

Shrub willows (Salix spp.) are emerging as a viable lignocellulosic, second-generation bioenergy crop with many growth characteristics favorable for marginal lands in New York State and surrounding areas. Willow rust, caused by members of the genus Melampsora, is the most limiting disease of shrub willow in this region and remains extremely understudied. In this study, genetic diversity, genetic structure, and pathogen clonality were examined in Melampsora americana over two growing seasons via genotyping-by-sequencing to identify single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. In conjunction with this project, a reference genome of rust isolate R15-033-03 was generated to aid in variant discovery. Sampling between years allowed regional and site-specific investigation into population dynamics, in the context of both wild and cultivated hosts within high-density plantings. This work revealed that this pathogen is largely panmictic over the sampled areas, with few sites showing moderate genetic differentiation. These data support the hypothesis of sexual recombination between growing seasons because no genotype persisted across the two years of sampling. Additionally, clonality was determined as a driver of pathogen populations within cultivated fields and single shrubs; however, there is also evidence of high genetic diversity of rust isolates in all settings. This work provides a framework for M. americana population structure in the Great Lakes region, providing crucial information that can aid in future resistance breeding efforts.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for Dark Photons in Rare $Z$ Boson Decays with the ATLAS Detector

A search for events with a dark photon produced in association with a dark Higgs boson via rare decays of the standard model Z boson is presented, using 139 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark boson decays into a pair of dark photons, and at least two of the three dark photons must each decay into a pair of electrons or muons, resulting in at least two same-flavor opposite-charge lepton pairs in the final state. The data are found to be consistent with the background prediction, and upper limits are set on the dark photon’s coupling to the dark Higgs boson times the kinetic mixing between the standard model photon and the dark photon, α D ϵ 2 , in the dark photon mass range of [5, 40] GeV except for the $Υ$ mass window [8.8, 11.1] GeV. This search explores new parameter space not previously excluded by other experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven approach to parameterize SCAN + U for an accurate description of 3 d transition metal oxide thermochemistry

Semilocal density-functional theory (DFT) methods exhibit significant errors for the phase diagrams of transition-metal oxides that are caused by an incorrect description of molecular oxygen and the large self-interaction error in materials with strongly localized electronic orbitals. Empirical and semiempirical corrections based on the DFT + U method can reduce these errors, but the parameterization and validation of the correction terms remains an on-going challenge. Here we develop a systematic methodology to determine the parameters and to statistically assess the results by considering interlinked thermochemical data across a set of transition metal compounds. We consider three interconnected levels of correction terms: (1) a constant oxygen binding correction, (2) Hubbard-U correction, and (3) DFT/DFT + U compatibility correction. The parameterization is expressed as a unified optimization problem. We demonstrate this approach for 3d transition metal oxides, considering a target set of binary and ternary oxides. With a total of 37 measured formation enthalpies taken from the literature, the dataset is augmented by the reaction energies of 1710 unique reactions that were derived from the formation energies by systematic enumeration. To ensure a balanced dataset across the available data, the reactions were grouped by their similarity using clustering and suitably weighted. The parameterization is validated using leave-one-out cross validation (CV), a standard technique for the validation of statistical models. We apply the methodology to the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional. Based on the CV score, the error of binary (ternary) oxide formation energies is reduced by 40% (75%) to 0.10 (0.03) eV/atom. A simplified correction scheme that does not involve SCAN/SCAN + U compatibility terms still achieves an error reduction of 30% (25%). The method and tools demonstrated here can be applied to other classes of materials or to parameterize the corrections to optimize DFT + U performance for other target physical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Postmeasurement Entanglement without Postselection

We study the problem of observing quantum collective phenomena emerging from large numbers of measurements. These phenomena are difficult to observe in conventional experiments because, in order to distinguish the effects of measurement from dephasing, it is necessary to postselect on sets of measurement outcomes with Born probabilities that are exponentially small in the number of measurements performed. An unconventional approach, which avoids this exponential “postselection problem”, is to construct cross-correlations between experimental data and the results of simulations on classical computers. However, these cross-correlations generally have no definite relation to physical quantities. We first show how to incorporate classical shadows into this framework, thereby allowing for the construction of quantum information-theoretic cross-correlations. We then identify cross-correlations that both upper and lower bound the measurement-averaged von Neumann entanglement entropy, as well as cross-correlations that lower bound the measurement-averaged purity and entanglement negativity. These bounds show that experiments can be performed to constrain postmeasurement entanglement without the need for postselection. To illustrate our technique, we consider how it could be used to observe the measurement-induced entanglement transition in Haar-random quantum circuits. We use exact numerical calculations as proxies for quantum simulations and, to highlight the fundamental limitations of classical memory, we construct cross-correlations with tensor-network calculations at finite bond dimension. Our results reveal a signature of measurement-induced criticality that can be observed using a quantum simulator in polynomial time and with polynomial classical memory. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

The objective of this project is to improve the prediction of engine knock by developing a new combustion modeling framework. Engine knock is a limiting factor to constrain the increase of fuel efficiency for spark ignition (SI) engines in most passenger cars. Efforts to increase fuel efficiency, increasing the compression ratio or downsizing, lead to the increase in the tendency of the knock occurrence. The knock is an undesired ignition of the end-gas, unburned fuel/air mixture ahead of the spark-ignited premixed flame, resulting in rapid in-cylinder pressure rises and engine damages. The combustion modeling framework developed in this project can consider turbulence-chemistry interactions during end-gas ignition, while using a reasonably detailed chemical mechanism developed for ignition and combustion reactions under engine relevant conditions, and the subtle characteristics of spark-ignited flame propagation. It is developed in the context of large eddy simulation (LES), which can capture stochastic in-cylinder processes. The developed model is incorporated into a commercial software for engine simulation, CONVERGE CFD, as a user defined function, and validated. Engine knock and knock-free experiments as well as direct numerical simulation (DNS) of end-gas ignition in homogeneous turbulence are performed to help model development and provide data sets for model validation. With further validation, the developed model is expected to advance the predictive capability for engine knock simulations and thus contribute to improving the fuel efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗