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NASA NTRS2003

Examination of the Atomic Pair Distribution Function (PDF) of SiC Nanocrystals by In-situ High Pressure Diffraction

Key properties of nanocrystals are determined by their real atomic structure, therefore a reasonable understanding and meaningful interpretation of their properties requires a realistic model of the structure. In this paper we present an evidence of a complex response of the lattice distances to external pressure indicating a presence of a complex structure of Sic nanopowders. The experiments were performed on nanocrystalline Sic subjected to hydrostatic or isostatic pressure using synchrotron and neutron powder diffraction. Elastic properties of the samples were examined based on X-ray diffraction data using a Diamond Anvil Cell (DAC) in HASYLAB at DESY. The dependence'of the lattice parameters and of the Bragg reflections width with pressure exhibits a ha1 nature of the properties (compressibilities) of the powders and indicates a complex structure of the grains. We interpreted tws behaviour as originating from different elastic properties of the grain interior and surface. Analysis of the dependence of individual interatomic distances on pressure was based on in-situ neutron diffraction measurements done with HbD diffractometer at LANSCE in Los Alamos National Laboratory with the Paris-Edinburgh cell under pressures up to 8 GPa (Qmax = 26/A). Interatomic distances were obtained by PDF analysis using the PDFgetN program. We have found that the interatomic distances undergo a complex, non-monotonic changes. Even under substantial pressures a considerable relaxation of the lattice may take place: some interatomic distances increase with an increase in pressure. We relate this phenomenon to: (1), changes of the microstructure of the densified material, in particular breaking of its fractal chain structure and, (2), its complex structure resembling that of a material composed of two phases, each with its distinct elastic properties.

Grzanka, E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Computer aided reliability, availability, and safety modeling for fault-tolerant computer systems with commentary on the HARP program

Many of the most challenging reliability problems of our present decade involve complex distributed systems such as interconnected telephone switching computers, air traffic control centers, aircraft and space vehicles, and local area and wide area computer networks. In addition to the challenge of complexity, modern fault-tolerant computer systems require very high levels of reliability, e.g., avionic computers with MTTF goals of one billion hours. Most analysts find that it is too difficult to model such complex systems without computer aided design programs. In response to this need, NASA has developed a suite of computer aided reliability modeling programs beginning with CARE 3 and including a group of new programs such as: HARP, HARP-PC, Reliability Analysts Workbench (Combination of model solvers SURE, STEM, PAWS, and common front-end model ASSIST), and the Fault Tree Compiler. The HARP program is studied and how well the user can model systems using this program is investigated. One of the important objectives will be to study how user friendly this program is, e.g., how easy it is to model the system, provide the input information, and interpret the results. The experiences of the author and his graduate students who used HARP in two graduate courses are described. Some brief comparisons were made with the ARIES program which the students also used. Theoretical studies of the modeling techniques used in HARP are also included. Of course no answer can be any more accurate than the fidelity of the model, thus an Appendix is included which discusses modeling accuracy. A broad viewpoint is taken and all problems which occurred in the use of HARP are discussed. Such problems include: computer system problems, installation manual problems, user manual problems, program inconsistencies, program limitations, confusing notation, long run times, accuracy problems, etc.

Shooman, Martin L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Magnetic flare model of gamma-ray bursts

The thermal synchrotron (TS) interpretation of gamma-ray burst continuum spectra requires an emission region which is hot, optically thin, and possessed of a super-Eddington flux of 10 to the 30 ergs/sq cm per sec for a 10-km neutron star. In order to maintain a pair population close to the Maxwellian, the collision excitation rate into higher Landau levels must exceed the cyclotron decay rates. Even if collective processes whose rates are close to the electron plasma frequency, or scattering by heavy ions, are invoked, a particle density of 10 to the 25th/cu cm is still needed. Both hypotheses point in the direction of a dense but thin emitting sheet, to whose structure attention is presently given together with the generation, propagation and coupling of the electromagnetic energy fluxes. A flare-like model can account for most of gamma ray bursts' general features.

Liang, E. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reflection and emission properties on Venus - Alpha Regio

Procedures developed from Hagfors' (1964) scattering model have been used with success to extract various properties (reflectivity, emissivity, slope, etc.) from both Pioneer Venus and Magellan data. However, under certain circumstances, such as physically rough areas or areas of nonhomogeneous composition, Hagfors' model may lead to serious errors in the interpretation of radar and radiometry data. The Magellan-derived surface properties are examined for some areas of below average emissivity in Alpha Regio and in an area to the east of Alpha, Crater Stuart, in order to determine if Hagfors' model is applicable. Methods of classical multiple scattering theory are also applied to show that enhanced radar backscattering and depressed thermal emission can be expected with a matrix of silicic or mafic rocks embedded in low loss soils.

Tryka, Kimberly A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Method for Assessing the Quality of Model-Based Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture Using Satellite Data

A method is developed for validating model-based estimates of atmospheric moisture and ground temperature using satellite data. The approach relates errors in estimates of clear-sky longwave fluxes at the top of the Earth-atmosphere system to errors in geophysical parameters. The fluxes include clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) and radiative flux in the window region between 8 and 12 microns (RadWn). The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data, and multiple global four-dimensional data assimilation (4-DDA) products. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic clear-sky longwave fluxes from two different 4-DDA data sets. Simple linear regression is used to relate the clear-sky longwave flux discrepancies to discrepancies in ground temperature ((delta)T(sub g)) and broad-layer integrated atmospheric precipitable water ((delta)pw). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters which can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of clear-sky longwave fluxes. For illustration we analyze the discrepancies in the clear-sky longwave fluxes between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS2) and a recent operational version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data assimilation system. The analysis of the synthetic clear-sky flux data shows that simple linear regression employing (delta)T(sub g)) and broad layer (delta)pw provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more thin 90% of the 6 hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters, Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (delta)T(sub g) to approx. 20% for the lower tropospheric moisture between 500 hPa and surface. The regression relationships developed from the synthetic flux data, together with CLR and RadWn observed with the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System instrument, ire used to assess the quality of the GEOS2 T(sub g) and pw. Results showed that the GEOS2 T(sub g) is too cold over land, and pw in upper layers is too high over the tropical oceans and too low in the lower atmosphere.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Computer Aided Modeling and Post Processing with NASTRAN Analysis

Computer aided engineering systems are invaluable tools in performing NASTRAN finite element analysis. These techniques are implemented in both the pre-processing and post-processing phases of the NASTRAN analysis. The finite element model development, or pre-processing phase, was automated with a computer aided modeling program called Supertabl, and the review and interpretation of the results of the NASTRAN analysis, or post-processing phase, was automated with a computer aided plotting program called Output Display. An intermediate program, Nasplot, which was developed in-house, has also helped to cut down on the model checkout time and reduce errors in the model. An interface has been established between the finite element computer aided engineering system and the Learjet computer aided design system whereby data can be transferred back and forth between the two. These systems have significantly improved productivity and the ability to perform NASTRAN analysis in response to product development requests.

Boroughs, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

CO(J = 1-0) line emission from giant molecular clouds

Numerical models of the (C-12)O (J = 1-0) line emission from giant molecular clouds (GMCs) have been constructed. Line profiles are presented for both microturbulent and macroturbulent clouds. The observed width of the CO (J = 1-0) line cannot be physically interpreted as a microturbulent gas velocity dispersion. Microturbulent models produce emission with a wide range of profile shapes and brightness temperatures at line center over a cloud mass range of 100 to 10 exp 6 solar masses. Macroturbulent models produce smooth, centrally peaked profiles. Clumpy GMC models can produce peak brightness temperatures over about 6 K provided that clump densities are larger than 1000/cu cm. If there are no significant velocity gradients, photoelectric heating dominates in the region where the CO line arises. The observed relation between cloud mass and CO luminosity can be constructed from theoretical models.

Wolfire, Mark G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Material Property Estimation in Thin Battery Components Using Guided Wave Measurement, Experimental Dispersion Curve Extraction and Finite Element Modeling

At NASA, we are investigating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques to detect precursors of thermal runaway failure in lithium metal based lithium ion batteries (LIB). The approach is centered on computational simulation models to guide inspection and aid in interpretation of results. Since lithium metal LIBs have combinations of solid and fluid-filled porous materials, obtaining accurate material properties is both challenging and critical for successful simulation of battery inspection. To this end, we investigated a multi-verification approach for material characterization of thin battery components. First, a laser Doppler vibrometer (LDV) was used to measure guided wave fields in thin (microns-thick) battery components subject to broadband excitation. The time-space wavefield data was converted to frequency-wave number data to extract guided wave dispersion curves. A data visualization and post processing graphics user interface (GUI) was developed at NASA to aid the data exploration and analysis. Due to the thinness of the samples, low frequency-thickness-product plate wave approximations allowed for the calculation of closed-form solutions for material elastic property estimation. These approximations were then verified by calculating the Lamb wave solutions using the previously obtained material properties. Finally, the estimated elastic material properties were implemented in a COMSOL simulation model, and dispersion curves were extracted from simulation results. The dispersion curves and derived material properties were then compared to the analysis results from the experimental data. These comparisons informed on the accuracy of the measured material properties and helped demonstrate the accuracy of the finite element analysis (FEA) computational models. This assessment will prove vital when we start simulating more complex multi-layer components and poroelastic media. This paper gives a brief background of the problem space, outlines the workflow for data analysis and verification, shows results from the workflow, and gives an overview of future plans for simulation of lithium metal LIB inspection.

Peter Juarez↗
NASA NTRS2009

Proceedings of the 40th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference

The 40th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference included sessions on: Phoenix: Exploration of the Martian Arctic; Origin and Early Evolution of the Moon; Comet Wild 2: Mineralogy and More; Astrobiology: Meteorites, Microbes, Hydrous Habitats, and Irradiated Ices; Phoenix: Soil, Chemistry, and Habitability; Planetary Differentiation; Presolar Grains: Structures and Origins; SPECIAL SESSION: Venus Atmosphere: Venus Express and Future Missions; Mars Polar Caps: Past and Present; SPECIAL SESSION: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1, Part I; 5 Early Nebula Processes and Models; SPECIAL SESSION: Icy Satellites of Jupiter and Saturn: Cosmic Gymnasts; Mars: Ground Ice and Climate Change; SPECIAL SESSION: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1, Part II; Chondrite Parent-Body Processes; SPECIAL SESSION: Icy Satellites of Jupiter and Saturn: Salubrious Surfaces; SNC Meteorites; Ancient Martian Crust: Primary Mineralogy and Aqueous Alteration; SPECIAL SESSION: Messenger at Mercury: A Global Perspective on the Innermost Planet; CAIs and Chondrules: Records of Early Solar System Processes; Small Bodies: Shapes of Things to Come; Sulfur on Mars: Rocks, Soils, and Cycling Processes; Mercury: Evolution and Tectonics; Venus Geology, Volcanism, Tectonics, and Resurfacing; Asteroid-Meteorite Connections; Impacts I: Models and Experiments; Solar Wind and Genesis: Measurements and Interpretation; Mars: Aqueous Processes; Magmatic Volatiles and Eruptive Conditions of Lunar Basalts; Comparative Planetology; Interstellar Matter: Origins and Relationships; Impacts II: Craters and Ejecta Mars: Tectonics and Dynamics; Mars Analogs I: Geological; Exploring the Diversity of Lunar Lithologies with Sample Analyses and Remote Sensing; Chondrite Accretion and Early History; Science Instruments for the Mars Science Lander; . Martian Gullies: Morphology and Origins; Mars: Dunes, Dust, and Wind; Mars: Volcanism; Early Solar System Chronology; Seek Out and Explore: Upcoming and Future Missions; Mars: Early History and Impact Processes; Mars Analogs II: Chemical and Spectral; Achondrites and their Parent Bodies; and Planning for Future Exploration of the Moon The poster sessions were: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1; LRO and LCROSS; Geophysical Analysis of the Lunar Surface and Interior; Remote Observation and Geologic Mapping of the Lunar Surface; Lunar Spectroscopy; Venus Geology, Geophysics, Mapping, and Sampling; Planetary Differentiation; Bunburra and Buzzard Coulee: Recent Meteorite Falls; Meteorites: Terrestrial History; CAIs and Chondrules: Records of Early Solar System Processes; Volatile and Organic Compounds in Chondrites; Crashing Chondrites: Impact, Shock, and Melting; Ureilite Studies; Petrology and Mineralogy of the SNC Meteorites; Martian Meteorites; Phoenix Landing Site: Perchlorate and Other Tasty Treats; Mars Polar Atmospheres and Climate Modeling; Mars Polar Investigations; Mars Near-Surface Ice; Mars: A Volatile-Rich Planet; Mars: Geochemistry and Alteration Processes; Martian Phyllosilicates: Identification, Formation, and Alteration; Astrobiology; Instrument Concepts, Systems, and Probes for Investigating Rocks and Regolith; Seeing is Believing: UV, VIS, IR, X- and Gamma-Ray Camera and Spectrometer Instruments; Up Close and Personal: In Situ Analysis with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry; Jupiter and Inscrutable Io; Tantalizing Titan; Enigmatic Enceladus and Intriguing Iapetus; Icy Satellites: Cryptic Craters; Icy Satellites: Gelid Geology/Geophysics; Icy Satellites: Cool Chemistry and Spectacular Spectroscopy; Asteroids and Comets; Comet Wild 2: Mineralogy and More; Hypervelocity Impacts: Stardust Models, LDEF, and ISPE; Presolar Grains; Early Nebular Processes: Models and Isotopes; Solar Wind and Genesis: Measurements and Interpretation; Education and Public Outreach; Mercury; Pursuing Lunar Exploration; Sources and Eruptionf Lunar Basalts; Chemical and Physical Properties of the Lunar Regolith; Lunar Dust and Transient Surface Phenomena; Lunar Databases and Data Restoration; Meteoritic Samples of the Moon; Chondrites, Their Clasts, and Alteration; Achondrites: Primitive and Not So Primitive; Iron Meteorites; Meteorite Methodology; Antarctic Micrometeorites; HEDs and Vesta; Dust Formation and Transformation; Interstellar Organic Matter; Early Solar System Chronology; Comparative Planetology; Impacts I: Models and Experiments; Impacts II: Craters and Ejecta; Mars: Volcanism; Mars: Tectonics and Dynamics; Martian Stratigraphy: Understanding the Geologic History of Mars Through the Sedimentary Rock Record; Mars: Valleys and Valley Networks; Mars: Aqueous Processes in Valles Marineris and the Southern Highlands; Mars: Aqueous Geomorphology; Martian Gullies: Morphology and Origins; Mars: Dunes, Dust, and Wind; Mars: Remote Sensing; Mars: Geologic Mapping, Photogrammetry, and Cratering; Martian Mineralogy: Constraints from Missions and Laboratory Investigations; Mars Analogs: Chemical and Physical; Mars Analogs: Sulfates and Sulfides; Missions: Approaches, Architectures, Analogs, and Actualities; Not Just Skin Deep: Electron Microscopy, Heat Flow, Radar, and Seismology Instruments and Planetary Data Systems, Techniques, and Interpretation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Logical Account of Diagnosis with Multiple Theories

Model-based diagnosis is a powerful, first-principles approach to diagnosis. The primary drawback with model-based diagnosis is that it is based on a system model, and this model might be inappropriate. The inappropriateness of models usually stems from the fundamental tradeoff between completeness and efficiency. Recently, Struss has developed an elegant proposal for diagnosis with multiple models. Struss characterizes models as relations and develops a precise notion of abstraction. He defines relations between models and analyzes the effect of a model switch on the space of possible diagnoses. In this paper we extend Struss's proposal in three ways. First, our account of diagnosis with multiple models is based on representing models as more expressive first-order theories, rather than as relations. A key technical contribution is the use of a general notion of abstraction based on interpretations between theories. Second, Struss conflates component modes with models, requiring him to define models relations such as choices which result in non-relational models. We avoid this problem by differentiating component modes from models. Third, we present a more general account of simplifications that correctly handles situations where the simplification contradicts the base theory.

Pandurang, P.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interpretation of surface features of Europa obtained from occultations by Io

Light curves of occultations of Europa by Io were used to generate a crude map of albedo features on Europa. Impact parameters and magnitude ratios for each event were imposed on a model. Residuals between the observed and computed light curves were interpreted as albedo features on Europa. In order to improve the fit between the observations and the model a general polar brightening was employed. The effects of additional albedo features and alternate models are discussed.

Herzog, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Overview of the Graphical User Interface for the GERMcode (GCR Event-Based Risk Model)

The descriptions of biophysical events from heavy ions are of interest in radiobiology, cancer therapy, and space exploration. The biophysical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is best described by a stochastic approach that includes both ion track structure and nuclear interactions. A new computer model called the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERM) code was developed for the description of biophysical events from heavy ion beams at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). The GERMcode calculates basic physical and biophysical quantities of high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at NSRL for the purpose of simulating space radiobiological effects. For mono-energetic beams, the code evaluates the linear-energy transfer (LET), range (R), and absorption in tissue equivalent material for a given Charge (Z), Mass Number (A) and kinetic energy (E) of an ion. In addition, a set of biophysical properties are evaluated such as the Poisson distribution of ion or delta-ray hits for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and mutation and tumor probabilities. The GERMcode also calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle. The contributions from primary ion and nuclear secondaries are evaluated. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections, and has been used by the GERMcode for application to thick target experiments. The GERMcode provides scientists participating in NSRL experiments with the data needed for the interpretation of their experiments, including the ability to model the beam line, the shielding of samples and sample holders, and the estimates of basic physical and biological outputs of the designed experiments. We present an overview of the GERMcode GUI, as well as providing training applications.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Photochemical Phenomenology Model for the New Millenium

This project tackles the problem of conversion of validated a priori physics-based modeling capabilities, specifically those relevant to the analysis and interpretation of planetary atmosphere observations, to application-oriented software for use in science and science-support activities. The software package under development, named the Photochemical Phenomenology Modeling Tool (PPMT), has particular focus on the atmospheric remote sensing data to be acquired by the CIRS instrument during the CASSINI Jupiter flyby and orbital tour of the Saturnian system. Overall, the project has followed the development outline given in the original proposal, and the Year 1 design and architecture goals have been met. Specific accomplishments and the difficulties encountered are summarized in this report. Most of the effort has gone into complete definition of the PPMT interfaces within the context of today's IT arena: adoption and adherence to the CORBA Component Model (CCM) has yielded a solid architecture basis, and CORBA-related issues (services, specification options, development plans, etc.) have been largely resolved. Implementation goals have been redirected somewhat so as to be more relevant to the upcoming CASSINI flyby of Jupiter, with focus now being more on data analysis and remote sensing retrieval applications.

Bishop, James↗
NASA NTRS1980

A time variable model of Earth's albedo

A time variable model of Earth's albedo was prepared for use in climate studies and as an aid to the interpretation of satellite Earth radiation budget data. The features of the model include: a 10 deg latitude 10 deg longitude grid for numerical integration, surface albedo specified at 1 month intervals, calculation of zenith angle effect for surface albedo and of the additional effect of the atmosphere on the albedo. Percent cloud cover is specified for 29 different climatological cloud type regions at 8 times of the day for 12 months of the year. Cloud albedos were specified for each of the cloud climatological types. Diurnal and monthly variations of this model are described and results are compared with a model which is based on satellite measurements. A computer program was also written for use in studying the sampling effects in satellite radiation budget measurements. An example of the results of calculations with this program are compared with a previous study of the sampling effects. This program for satellite orbit characteristics is to be combined with the time-variable albedo model for further study of the sampling problem.

Bartman, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Overview of the Graphical User Interface for the GERM Code (GCR Event-Based Risk Model

The descriptions of biophysical events from heavy ions are of interest in radiobiology, cancer therapy, and space exploration. The biophysical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is best described by a stochastic approach that includes both ion track structure and nuclear interactions. A new computer model called the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERM) code was developed for the description of biophysical events from heavy ion beams at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). The GERM code calculates basic physical and biophysical quantities of high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at NSRL for the purpose of simulating space radiobiological effects. For mono-energetic beams, the code evaluates the linear-energy transfer (LET), range (R), and absorption in tissue equivalent material for a given Charge (Z), Mass Number (A) and kinetic energy (E) of an ion. In addition, a set of biophysical properties are evaluated such as the Poisson distribution of ion or delta-ray hits for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and mutation and tumor probabilities. The GERM code also calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle. The contributions from primary ion and nuclear secondaries are evaluated. The GERM code accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections, and has been used by the GERM code for application to thick target experiments. The GERM code provides scientists participating in NSRL experiments with the data needed for the interpretation of their experiments, including the ability to model the beam line, the shielding of samples and sample holders, and the estimates of basic physical and biological outputs of the designed experiments. We present an overview of the GERM code GUI, as well as providing training applications.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS1980

Preliminary evaluation of spectral, normal and meteorological crop stage estimation approaches

Several of the projects in the AgRISTARS program require crop phenology information, including classification, acreage and yield estimation, and detection of episodal events. This study evaluates several crop calendar estimation techniques for their potential use in the program. The techniques, although generic in approach, were developed and tested on spring wheat data collected in 1978. There are three basic approaches to crop stage estimation: historical averages for an area (normal crop calendars), agrometeorological modeling of known crop-weather relationships agrometeorological (agromet) crop calendars, and interpretation of spectral signatures (spectral crop calendars). In all, 10 combinations of planting and biostage estimation models were evaluated. Dates of stage occurrence are estimated with biases between -4 and +4 days while root mean square errors range from 10 to 15 days. Results are inconclusive as to the superiority of any of the models and further evaluation of the models with the 1979 data set is recommended.

Cate, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Why Do Models Overestimate Surface Ozone in the Southeast United States?

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NO(x) triple bond NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC(exp 4)RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NO(x) from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC(exp 4)RS observations of NO(x) and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NO(x) emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NO(x) emissions. Upper-tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NO(x) emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NO(x) pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NO(x) emissions because isoprene and NO(x) emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NO(x) emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NO(x) oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 6 plus or minus 14 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.

Oxidation↗