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A Decade of Sporadic Meteoroid Mass Distribution Indices in the Southern Hemisphere Derived from SAAMER’s Meteor Observations

We present determinations of the meteoroid differential mass index, s, using over a decade of meteor observations from the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar (SAAMER). For this, we employ an autonomous statistical technique to determine this parameter from the measured radar echo amplitudes. Unlike previous studies, we examine the role of the system noise in the determination of this parameter and found that if not taken into account appropriately, the results can yield significant over estimations of the mass index. In general we found that a value of s = 2.0 represents SAAMER’s results in general agreement with recent studies performed in the northern hemisphere. We explore both the index interannual and seasonal variability and, unlike previous studies, we found them to be constant, except during the presence of the Southern δ Aquariids meteor shower which is so strong that it dominates the meteor counts when present. Our study suggests that using the maximum echo amplitude for these studies is not ideal as it can be biased by many factors which make the inaccuracies larger than the precision estimated by the fitting routine. A method that results in a more direct estimate of the electron line density would be required which takes into account range, gain pattern, system noise, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of the atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice interface processes in the Regional Arctic System Model version 1 (RASM1) using local and globally gridded observations

The Regional Arctic System Model version 1 (RASM1) has been developed to provide high-resolution simulations of the Arctic atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–land system. Here, we provide a baseline for the capability of RASM to simulate interface processes by comparing retrospective simulations from RASM1 for 1990–2014 with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and the spread across three recent reanalyses. Evaluations of surface and 2 m air temperature, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, precipitation, and snow depth in the various models and reanalyses are performed using global and regional datasets and a variety of in situ datasets, including flux towers over land, ship cruises over oceans, and a field experiment over sea ice. These evaluations reveal that RASM1 simulates precipitation that is similar to CESM1, reanalyses, and satellite gauge combined precipitation datasets over all river basins within the RASM domain. Snow depth in RASM is closer to upscaled surface observations over a flatter region than in more mountainous terrain in Alaska. The sea ice–atmosphere interface is well simulated in regards to radiation fluxes, which generally fall within observational uncertainty. RASM1 monthly mean surface temperature and radiation biases are shown to be due to biases in the simulated mean diurnal cycle. At some locations, a minimal monthly mean bias is shown to be due to the compensation of roughly equal but opposite biases between daytime and nighttime, whereas this is not the case at locations where the monthly mean bias is higher in magnitude. These biases are derived from errors in the diurnal cycle of the energy balance (radiative and turbulent flux) components. Therefore, the key to advancing the simulation of SAT and the surface energy budget would be to improve the representation of the diurnal cycle of radiative and turbulent fluxes. The development of RASM2 aims to address these biases. Still, an advantage of RASM1 is that it captures the interannual and interdecadal variability in the climate of the Arctic region, which global models like CESM cannot do.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades

Soil temperature ( T s ) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and interannual timescales, the variability of T s determines the active-layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of T s in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of T s trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 °C yr -1 . Most models show smaller increase in T s with increasing depth. Air temperature ( T sub>a ) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of T s trends, but their relative contributions differ amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in T s trends, while trends of T a only explain 5 % of the differences in T s trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in T s trends (0.021 ± 0.008 °C yr -1 , mean ± standard deviation) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 °C yr -1 ), diagnosed from the range of response between different models, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate, is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of T s at 1 m depth across the models ( R = -0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area ( R = -0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T s at 1 m is estimated to be of -2.80 ± 0.67 million km 2 °C -1 . Finally, by using two long-term LWDR data sets and relationships between trends of LWDR and T s across models, we infer an observation-constrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprising between 39 ± 14 × 10 3 and 75 ± 14 × 10 3 km 2 yr -1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9–18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurements of the earth radiation budget from satellites during the first GARP global experiment

Radiation budget data (which will aid in climate model development) and solar constant measurements (both to be used for the study of long term climate change and interannual seasonal weather variability) are presented, obtained during Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 satellite flights, using wide-field-of-view, scanner, and black cavity detectors. Data on the solar constant, described as a function of the date of measurement, are given. The unweighed mean amounts to 1377 + or - 20 per sq Wm, with a standard deviation of 8 per sq Wm. The new solar data are combined with earlier measurements, and it is suggested that the total absolute energy output of the sun is a minimum at 'solar maximum' and vice versa. Attention is given to the measurements of the net radiation budget, the planetary albedo, and the infrared radiant exitance. The annual and semiannual cycles of normal variability explain most of the variance of energy exchange between the earth and space. Examination of separate ocean and atmospheric energy budgets implies a net continent-ocean region energy exchange.

Vonder Haar, T. H.↗

Satellite estimates of shortwave surface radiation and atmospheric meteorology for the BOREAS experiment region

This report provides background data for the Boreal Ecosystem Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) sites, including daily, seasonal, interannual, and spatial variability of shortwave (SW) radiation at the Earth's surface. This background data, from the Version 1.1 SW data set, was provided by the Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Climatology Project established by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Moats, C. D.↗

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Weng, H.-Y.↗

Influence of Sea Ice on the Thermohaline Circulation in the Arctic-North Atlantic Ocean

A fully prognostic coupled ocean-ice model is used to study the sensitivity of the overturning cell of the Arctic-North-Atlantic system to sea ice forcing. The strength of the thermohaline cell will be shown to depend on the amount of sea ice transported from the Arctic to the Greenland Sea and further to the subpolar gyre. The model produces a 2-3 Sv increase of the meridional circulation cell at 25N (at the simulation year 15) corresponding to a decrease of 800 cu km in the sea ice export from the Arctic. Previous modeling studies suggest that interannual and decadal variability in sea ice export of this magnitude is realistic, implying that sea ice induced variability in the overturning cell can reach 5-6 Sv from peak to peak.

Mauritzen, Cecilie↗

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone: A Multi-Satellite View From TOMS and Other Instruments

New tropospheric ozone and aerosol products from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite instrument can resolve episodic pollution events in the tropics and interannual and seasonal variability. Modified-residual (MR) Nimbus 7 tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO), two maps/month (1979-1992, 1-deg latitude by 2-deg longitude) within the region in which total ozone displays a tropical wave-one pattern (maximum 20S to 20N), are available in digital form at http://metosrv2.umd.edu/~tropo. Also available are preliminary 1996-1999 MR-TTO maps based on real-time Earth-Probe (EP)/TOMS observations. Examples of applications are given.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

On the Eastward Travelling Wavenumber Two in the Northern Stratosphere

Disturbances in the middle atmosphere are often interpreted in the framework of waves superimposed on a zonal-mean flow. This paper presents an analysis of travelling waves in the northern hemisphere stratosphere, concentrating on planetary wavenumber two (W2). Space-time spectral analysis reveals the existence of a substantial eastward-travelling planetary W2 at high latitudes in winter. While a similar feature is well documented in the southern hemisphere stratosphere, where it is observed in most winters, this northern hemisphere counterpart is less common and has not been examined in detail. A climatology of occurrence of the wave is given for the northern stratospheric winter. It is denoted as the quasi-16-day eastward travelling W2, because of its dominant periodicity, which ranges from about one to three weeks. Although the wave has some similarities with the southern hemispheric wave, there is much larger interannual and intraseasonal variability in the northern hemisphere. will emphasize the variations in the spatial and temporal structure of this wave, as isolated in meteorological analyses of radiosonde and satellite data. The possible role of these travelling waves in preconditioning the stratosphere as a precursor to sudden stratospheric warmings in both hemispheres will be discussed.

Pawson, Steven↗

The Eastern Pacific ITCZ during the Boreal Spring

The 6-year (1998-2003) rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to quantify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific (defined by longitudinal averages over 90 degrees W-130 degrees W) during boreal spring (March-April). The double ITCZ phenomenon, represented by the occurrence of two maxima with respect to latitude in monthly mean rainfall, is observed in most but not all of the years studied. The relative spatial locations of maxima in sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and surface pressure are examined. Interannual and weekly variability are characterized in SST, rainfall, surface convergence, total column water vapor, and cloud water. There appears to be a competition for rainfall between the two hemispheres during this season. When one of the two rainfall maxima is particularly strong, the other tends to be weak, with the total rainfall integrated over the two varying less than does the difference between the rainfall integrated over each separately. There is some evidence for a similar competition between the SST maxima in the two hemispheres, but this is more ambiguous, and there is evidence that some variations in the relative strengths of the two rainfall maxima may be independent of SST. Using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), four distinct ITCZ types during March-April are defined, based on the relative strengths of rainfall peaks north and south of, and right over the equator. Composite meridional profiles and spatial distributions of rainfall and SST are documented for each type. Consistent with previous studies, an equatorial cold tongue is essential to the existence of the double ITCZs. However, too strong a cold tongue may dampen either the southern or northern rainfall maximum, depending on the magnitude of SST north of the equator.

Gu, Guojun↗

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Recent Changes in the Arctic Melt Season

Melt-season duration, melt-onset and freeze-up dates are derived from satellite passive microwave data and analyzed from 1979 to 2005 over Arctic sea ice. Results indicate a shift towards a longer melt season, particularly north of Alaska and Siberia, corresponding to large retreats of sea ice observed in these regions. Although there is large interannual and regional variability in the length of the melt season, the Arctic is experiencing an overall lengthening of the melt season at a rate of about 2 weeks decade(sup -1). In fact, all regions in the Arctic (except for the central Arctic) have statistically significant (at the 99% level or higher) longer melt seasons by greater than 1 week decade(sup -1). The central Arctic shows a statistically significant trend (at the 98% level) of 5.4 days decade(sup -1). In 2005 the Arctic experienced its longest melt season, corresponding with the least amount of sea ice since 1979 and the warmest temperatures since the 1880s. Overall, the length of the melt season is inversely correlated with the lack of sea ice seen in September north of Alaska and Siberia, with a mean correlation of -0.8.

Stroeve, Julienne↗

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Helfand, H. Mark↗

Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Evaporation from the Southern Ocean Estimated on the Basis of AIRS Satellite Data

Evaporation plays an important role in the global water and energy cycles and, hence, in climate change. Evaporation over the Southern Ocean, where the Antarctic sea ice coverage has a large annual cycle, is poorly quantified. In this study, daily evaporation is estimated for the Southern Ocean with a sea‐ice‐specific algorithm, using surface temperature and air humidity from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and wind speeds from Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA‐2), reanalysis during 2003–2016. An uncertainty of 34% was found in the evaporation product. The results indicate that annual evaporation has considerable interannual and regional variability, but with a decreasing trend during the study period over most of the Southern Ocean. There are, however, areas where evaporation has increased, specifically in the Ross Sea in winter and summer, with smaller positive trends in spring and fall. Overall, the changes in the difference between the surface specific humidity and the air specific humidity, and to a much lesser extent in the wind speed, are the main drivers for the changes in evaporation throughout the year. During spring and fall months, changes to the sea ice cover, which alter the surface specific humidity, are the main drivers for the change, but in summer and winter the main driver is the air‐specific humidity. Air masses originating from the Antarctic continent (south) are associated with cold and dry conditions, which increase evaporation, whereas air masses from lower latitudes in the Southern Ocean (north) are associated with warm and moist conditions, decreasing evaporation. Comparisons with other reanalysis evaporation products produce similar trends, although annual averages differ.

Boisvert, Linette↗

Remote Sensing of Particulate Organic Carbon Pools in the High-Latitude Oceans

The general goal of this project was to characterize spatial distributions at basin scales and variability on monthly to interannual timescales of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the high-latitude oceans. The primary objectives were: (1) To collect in situ data in the north polar waters of the Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, necessary for the derivation of POC ocean color algorithms for these regions. (2) To derive regional POC algorithms and refine existing regional chlorophyll (Chl) algorithms, to develop understanding of processes that control bio-optical relationships underlying ocean color algorithms for POC and Chl, and to explain bio-optical differentiation between the examined polar regions and within the regions. (3) To determine basin-scale spatial patterns and temporal variability on monthly to interannual scales in satellite-derived estimates of POC and Chl pools in the investigated regions for the period of time covered by SeaWiFS and MODIS missions.

Stramski, Dariusz↗

Seasonal and Interannual Assessment of Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Constituents Across the Amazon (2000 - 2015): Insights for Remote Sensing and Climate Analysis

The quantitative assessment of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents improves our ability to exploit the climate feedback into the Amazon basin. In the 21st century, three droughts have already occurred in the Amazonia (e.g. 2005, 2010, 2015), inducing regional changes in the seasonal patterns of atmospheric constituents. In addition to climate, the atmospheric dynamic and attenuation properties are long-term challenges for satellite-based remote sensing of this ecosystem: high cloudiness, abundant water vapor content and biomass burning season. Therefore, while climatology analysis supports the understanding of atmospheric variability and trends, it also offers valuable insights for remote sensing applications. In this study, we evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents (aerosol loading, water vapor and ozone content) over the Amazon basin, with focus on both climate analysis and remote sensing implications. We take the advantage of new atmosphere daily products at 1 km resolution derived from Multi-Angle Implementation for Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. An intercomparison of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV) showed quantitative information with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.81. Our results show distinct regional patterns of cloud cover across the Amazon basin: northwestern region presets a persistent cloud cover (> 80%) throughout the year, while low cloud cover (0-20%) occurs in the southern Amazon during the dry season. The cloud-free period in the southern Amazon is followed by an increase in the atmospheric burden due to fire emissions. Our results reveal that AOD records are changing in terms of area and intensity. During the 2005 and 2010 droughts, the positive AOD anomalies (δ > 0.1) occurred over 39.03% (240.3 million ha) and 27.14% (165.99 million ha) of total basin in the SON season, respectively. In contrast, the recent 2015 drought occurred towards the end of year (October through December) and these anomalies were observed over 23.72% (145 million ha) affecting areas in the central and eastern Amazon unlike previous droughts. The water vapor presents high concentration values (4.0-5.0 g/sq.cm) in the wet season (DJF), while we observed a strong spatial gradient from northwestern to southeastern of the basin during the dry season. In addition, we also found a positive trend of water vapor content ( ∼0.3 g/sq.cm) between 2000 and 2015. The total ozone typically varies between 220 and 270 DU, and it has a seasonal change of ∼25-35 DU from wet season to dry season caused by large emissions of ozone precursors and long-range transport. Finally, while this study contributes to climatological analysis of atmospheric constituents, the remote sensing users can also understand the regional constraints caused by atmospheric attenuation, such as high aerosol loading and cloud obstacles for surface observations.

ozone↗