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DOE OSTI2022

Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways

Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review of the U.S. Policies, Codes, and Standards of Zero-Carbon Buildings

The global issue of climate change has accelerated the international commitment to net-zero carbon emission development. Decarbonizing the building sector has been put on several governments’ sustainable development agendas. To provide a reference for decarbonizing the building sector, this paper summarizes the U.S. experience in zero-carbon buildings (ZCBs) from the aspects of policies, codes, and standards at the federal and local levels and those of professional societies. Based on the definition and boundaries of ZCBs, this paper introduces policies on building energy efficiency, electrification, on-site renewable energy deployment, and “buy clean”, illustrating highlights in building phases, energy systems, materials production, and fiscal incentives. The synergic efforts and coordination between federal and local levels and with professional societies are also introduced. Successful experiences in policy and standard implementation are summarized, including the systemic work of multilevel governance, clearly defined goals and stringent policies, constant upgrades of codes and standards, transparency in reporting and information sharing, and increased financial and investment opportunities. This paper provides concrete recommendations for developing zero-carbon building policies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

SolarView: Georgia Solar Adoption in Context

The local-national gap is a problem currently plaguing the adoption of emerging technologies targeted at resolving energy transition issues that are characterized by disparities in the adoption of innovations and policies on a local level in response to national policy implementation. These disparities reflect a complex system of technical, economic, social, political, and ecological factors linked to the perceptions held by communities and how they see energy development and national/global policy goals. This dataset is an attempt to bridge the local-national gap regarding solar PV adoption in the State of Georgia (U.S.) by aggregating variables from seven different publicly-available sources. The objective of this activity was to design a resource that would help researchers interested in the context underlying solar adoption on the local scale of governance (e.g., the county level). The SolarView database includes information necessary for informing policy-making activities such as solar installation information, a historical county zip code directory, county-level census data, housing value indexes, renewable energy incentive totals, PV rooftop suitability percentages, and utility rates. As this is a database from multiple sources, incomplete data entries are noted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Stationary stability for evolutionary dynamics in finite populations

Here, we demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS) candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISS candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran andWright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Commercial Building Lighting as a Frequency Regulation Resource

This paper evaluates the potential for automated lighting control as a resource for frequency regulation of the electric grid system in the context of current energy policies, economic incentives, and technological trends. The growing prevalence of renewable energy has increased the need for ancillary services to maintain grid frequency and stability. While demand side resources like heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems, as well as water treatment plants are already evaluated as regulation service providers, the potential application to electrical lighting systems has largely been ignored. Yet, aggregations of lighting systems that are retrofitted with intelligent controls could conceivably contribute to frequency regulation services with little impact on user comfort. To further explore the feasibility of lighting potential, this paper explores (1) how lighting control systems are limited by visual comfort perception and acceptability, (2) how such limitations impact the performance of the lighting system as an frequency regulation resource, and (3) how the market potential of lighting systems as demand side resources compares in different regional transmission organizations. Finally, the impact of developing technologies on the application of lighting systems for frequency regulation is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opening Up Transactive Systems: Introducing TESS and Specification in a Field Deployment

Transactive energy systems (TS) use automated device bidding to access (residential) demand flexibility and coordinate supply and demand on the distribution system level through market processes. In this work, we present TESS, a modularized platform for the implementation of TS, which enables the deployment of adjusted market mechanisms, economic bidding, and the potential entry of third parties. TESS thereby opens up current integrated closed-system TS, allows for the better adaptation of TS to power systems with high shares of renewable energies, and lays the foundations for a smart grid with a variety of stakeholders. Furthermore, despite positive experiences in various pilot projects, one hurdle in introducing TS is their integration with existing tariff structures and (legal) requirements. In this paper, we therefore describe TESS as we have modified it for a field implementation within the service territory of Holy Cross Energy in Colorado. Importantly, our specification addresses challenges of implementing TS in existing electric retail systems, for instance, the design of bidding strategies when a (non-transactive) tariff system is already in place. We conclude with a general discussion of the challenges associated with “brownfield” implementation of TS, such as incentive problems of baseline approaches or long-term efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards an Energy Future with Ubiquitous Electric Vehicles: Barriers and Opportunities

The electrification of personal transportation holds great potential for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and reducing climate change. The promise of electric vehicles (EVs) to serve these goals has resulted in a broad range of supporting policies aimed at encouraging widespread EV adoption at both the state and federal levels in the United States and around the world. While the EV revolution and prospects of a world with ubiquitous EVs are impacting various industries and many aspects of daily life, strategic interactions between the power grid and EVs are crucial for a successful energy transition. However, managing the interplay between EVs and the power grid remains a challenge. Motivated by that tension, this paper surveys a variety of solutions, policies, and incentives that are focused on effectively managing EV charging behaviors. The paper’s objective is to explore these tools to ensure that EV owners have ultimate control over their personal vehicles while simultaneously allowing the power grid to mitigate adverse network impacts. Furthermore, this paper examines the role of charging infrastructure technology and its strategic placement in facilitating the seamless integration of EVs into the grid. Additionally, the paper highlights financial mechanisms associated with EV integration and discusses the consequences of these mechanisms.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Impact of Utility Lighting Rebate Programs on Promoting Industrial Energy Efficiency: A Machine Learning Approach

Implementation costs are a major factor in manufacturers’ decisions to invest in energy-efficient technologies. Emerging technologies in lighting systems, however, typically require small investment costs and offer short, simple payback periods, due, in part, to federal, state, and utility incentive programs. Recently, however, certain state and federal mandates have reduced the support for and efficacy of electricity utility incentivizing programs. To determine the impact of such support programs, this study examined historical data regarding lighting retrofit savings, implementation costs, and utility rebates gathered from 13 years of industrial energy audits by a U.S. Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Center in a midwestern state. It uses a machine learning approach to evaluate the industrial energy and cost-saving opportunities that may have been lost due to decisions attributable to legislative mandates, utility policies, and manufacturers’ calculations and to evaluate the potential effect of lighting rebates on manufacturers’ decisions to implement industrial energy-efficient lighting retrofits. The results indicate that the decision not to implement lighting energy efficiency recommendations resulted in a loss of more than USD800,000 in potential rebates by industries during the study period and that the implementation of lighting energy assessment recommendations could have increased by about 50% if electric utility rebates had been available. These findings can help industries evaluate the benefits of implementing lighting efficiency improvements, and help utilities determine feasible lighting retrofit rebate values for incentivizing such changes by the industries they serve.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Recycled PET Nanofibers for Water Filtration Applications

Water shortage is an immediate and serious threat to our world population. Inexpensive and scalable methods to clean freshwater and wastewater are in high demand. Nanofiber filtration membranes represent a next generation nonwoven filter media due to their unique properties. Polyethlyene terephthalate (PET) is often used in the packaging of water and other commonly used materials, leading to a large amount of plastic waste often with limited incentive for recycling (few value-added uses). Here, we present work in the generation of nanofiber liquid filtration membranes from PET plastic bottles and demonstrate their use in microfiltration. PET nanofiber membranes were formed via solution electrospinning with fiber diameters as low as ca. 100 nm. Filtration efficiency was tested with latex beads with sizes ranging from 30 to 2000 nm. Greater than 99% of the beads as small as 500 nm were removed using gravity filtration. To reduce biofouling, the mats were functionalized with quaternary ammonium and biguanide biocides. The biguanide functionalized mats achieved 6 log reduction for both gram negative and gram positive bacteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intelligent Control of Thermal Energy Storage in the Manufacturing Sector for Plant-Level Grid Response

Industrial facilities are seeking new strategies that help in providing savings mechanisms for demand charges. Demand charges are the charges incurred by industrial facilities as a result of power usage. Thermal energy storage has advanced significantly with lots of new applications, garnering the interest of many industrial facilities. These applications could be used to shave the industrial facilities’ peak electric demand and reduce their demand charges. This paper aims to demonstrate the efficacy of thermal energy storage in reducing demand charges and highlight new developments in the integration of smart control systems with thermal energy storage. The study compares energy consumption and peak demand for a facility equipped with and without thermal energy storage tanks using a fixed schedule for charging and discharging. Additionally, the paper examines the impact of incorporating a smart controller to determine when to charge and discharge the tank based on the facility’s real-time power usage and a given setpoint. The results indicate cost savings from the use of thermal energy storage tanks under two proposed scenarios, reflected in the reduced cost of power consumption for the studied facility. The incorporation of a smart controller with the thermal energy storage tank in the facility studied could provide estimated savings of 3.3% per year of power consumption charges, without considering the contribution of any incentives. The estimated savings provided by the fixed schedule scenario are 2.7% per year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recycling Disassembled Automotive Plastic Components for New Vehicle Components: Enabling the Automotive Circular Economy

As the automotive industry increasingly relies on plastic components to meet fuel efficiency and emissions targets, the challenge of managing end-of-life vehicle (ELV) plastics continues to grow. Currently, more than 80% of ELV plastics in the U.S. are landfilled due to limited economic incentives and technical barriers to recycling. This study examines a mechanical recycling pathway for thermoplastic components disassembled from ELVs and assesses their usability for reintegration into new vehicle parts. Four representative materials were chosen based on material labels embedded in recovered parts and aligned with their virgin industrial equivalents: polypropylene (PP), 10% talc-filled PP (PP-T10), 20% talc-filled PP (PP-T20), and a 20% glass-/mineral-filled polyamide (PA6 + GF7 + MF13). The materials underwent shredding, drying, and injection molding before being characterized by particle size analysis, density measurement, thermal analysis (TGA, DSC), mechanical testing, and heat deflection temperature (HDT) evaluation. The results in this work indicated that minor differences in crystallinity were observed and small differences between model materials and ELV materials could have contributed to these changes. Mechanical testing revealed that neat polypropylene suffered a 15–20% reduction in stiffness and tensile strength, but talc-filled polypropylene and glass/mineral-filled nylon retained >90% of their modulus, strength, and heat deflection temperature values relative to virgin controls. Differences between virgin and ELV materials could have been attributed to use life degradation, contamination during use life, or even chemical/processing differences in model materials and ELV materials. However, these findings suggest that mechanically recycled, disassembled ELV plastics can retain sufficient structural performance to support circularity efforts in the automotive sector.

automotive recycling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of Combined Lead Fast Reactor and Concentrating Solar Power Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Cycles to Demonstrate Feasibility, Efficiency Gains, and Cost Reductions

Solar power has innate issues with weather, grid demand and time of day, which can be mitigated through use of thermal energy storage for concentrating solar power (CSP). Nuclear reactors, including lead-cooled fast reactors (LFRs), can adjust power output according to demand; but with high fixed costs and low operating costs, there may not be sufficient economic incentive to make this worthwhile. We investigate potential synergies through coupling CSP and LFR together in a single supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle and/or using the same thermal energy storage. Combining these cycles allows for the LFR to thermally charge the salt storage in the CSP cycle during low-demand periods to be dispatched when grid demand increases. The LFR/CSP coupling into one cycle is modeled to find the preferred location of the LFR heat exchanger, CSP heat exchanger, sCO 2 -to-salt heat exchanger (C2S), turbines, and recuperators within the supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle. Three cycle configurations have been studied: two-cycle configuration, which uses CSP and LFR heat for dedicated turbocompressors, has the highest efficiencies but with less component synergies; a combined cycle with CSP and LFR heat sources in parallel is the simplest with the lowest efficiencies; and a combined cycle with separate high-temperature recuperators for both the CSP and LFR is a compromise between efficiency and component synergies. Additionally, four thermal energy storage charging techniques are studied: the turbine positioned before C2S, requiring a high LFR outlet temperature for viability; the turbine after the C2S, reducing turbine inlet temperature and therefore power; the turbine parallel to the C2S producing moderate efficiency; and a dedicated circulator loop. While all configurations have pros and cons, use of a single cycle offers component synergies with limited efficiency penalty. Using a turbine in parallel with the C2S heat exchanger is feasible but results in a low charging efficiency, while a dedicated circulator loop offers flexibility and near-perfect heat storage efficiency but increasing cost with additional cycle components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Regulations for Sustainable Battery Recycling: Challenges and Opportunities

With the rapid expansion of transportation electrification worldwide, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically, creating new and sustainable growth opportunities for the global economy. However, as the most expensive component of EVs, lithium-ion batteries pose significant sustainability challenges due to raw material consumption and supply chain constrains, as well as the complexities of end-of-life battery disposal and recycling. To address these concerns, many countries are actively establishing regulations to promote sustainable pathways for battery reuse and recycling. Despite these efforts, existing battery recycling regulations remain often inefficient and vary significantly across different countries in legal enforcement, producer responsibility, waste classification, recycling targets, design standards, public engagement, and financial incentives, particularly given the complexities of the global supply chain and resource distribution within the battery industry. Understanding these regulatory differences and establishing a unified framework are therefore crucial to ensuring sustainable and efficient battery recycling. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of the necessity of establishing robust regulations for sustainable development of battery recycling industry. The evolution and refinement of battery recycling regulations are deeply reviewed to identifying persistent gaps and challenges in key countries. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges associated with regulatory enforcement and propose strategies for developing a more cohesive legislative framework to ensure the effective utilization of retired batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%), transportation (28%), industry (20%), agriculture (10%), and commercial and residential (10%). Moreover, the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annual temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. Here, we find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. Our finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Problems and Countermeasures of River Management in the Process of Rapid Urbanization in China

The rapid process of urbanization has led to water pollution, reduction of space areas and channel deposition. However, current river protection and management levels are not suitable for city development level and human demand. Therefore, these problems have not yet been solved. China is still in an era of rapid urbanization, which means that the influence of urbanization in rivers will increase in the future—and the task of river protection and management will be more arduous. In order to meet the challenges and opportunities brought by urbanization and promote the sustainable use and management of river, this study puts forward relevant suggestions on river protection and management, such as river management mechanisms, economic incentive instruments, technical support, transformation of development concepts, improving laws, regulations and policies and stimulating public participation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating China’s Passenger Vehicle Market under the Vehicle Policies of 2021–2023

China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗