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DOE OSTI2020

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Novel pathways for fuels and lubricants from biomass optimized using life-cycle greenhouse gas assessment

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical to achieving global climate change mitigation. Although biofuels will play an important role in conventional gasoline and diesel applications, bioderived solutions are particularly important in jet fuels and lubricants, for which no other viable renewable alternatives exist. Producing compounds for jet fuel and lubricant base oil applications often requires upgrading fermentation products, such as alcohols and ketones, to reach the appropriate molecular-weight range. Ketones possess both electrophilic and nucleophilic functionality, which allows them to be used as building blocks similar to alkenes and aromatics in a petroleum refining complex. Here, we develop a method for selectively upgrading biomass-derived alkyl methyl ketones with >95% yields into trimer condensates, which can then be hydrodeoxygenated in near-quantitative yields to give a new class of cycloalkane compounds. The basic chemistry developed here can be tailored for aviation fuels as well as lubricants by changing the production strategy. We demonstrate that a sugarcane biorefinery could use natural synergies between various routes to produce a mixture of lubricant base oils and jet fuels that achieve net life-cycle greenhouse gas savings of up to 80%.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Candidate Designs and Performance Optimization for an Electric Traction Motor Targeting 50 kW/L Power Density

The continued expansion of the global electric vehicle fleet is accompanied by an unprecedented demand for high power density electric traction motors. With the ambitious U.S. DRIVE 2025 target of 50 kW/L power density and an equally aggressive cost reduction goal, innovative approaches have to be utilized in terms of both the design and manufacturing of electric traction motors. In this paper, six motor options are compared and the best design is picked for each option to investigate the drive and excitation requirements and the weighted power efficiency over multiple load points, with necessary mechanical stress and demagnetization checks. State-of-the-art winding technologies, including high slot fill die compressed windings and hairpin windings, and rotors both with permanent magnet (PM) and PM-free are incorporated. The design of high flux density and low harmonic content magnetic field is also demonstrated.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and Optimizing the Energy Benefits of Mass Timber Construction

The International Mass Timber Alliance (IMTA) is a global organization of industry leaders, engineers, scientists, and associations dedicated to advancing mass timber construction. Its mission is to generate and disseminate scientific data supporting the development of standardized construction and energy efficient practices that promote the adoption of mass timber worldwide. IMTA collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to leverage ORNL’s expertise in building envelope modeling and testing to evaluate how mass timber construction can reduce peak heating and cooling demand, lower overall energy use, and improve resilience during power outages. A previous study of 80 mass timber buildings in Finland found measured energy use up to 50% lower than predicted by simulation. This project aimed to validate and extend those findings for U.S. buildings through analytical modeling, laboratory testing, and full-scale building evaluations. The research focused on the thermal performance of low-embodied-energy wall assemblies, such as cross-laminated timber (CLT) panels and log walls, with particular attention to the effects of thermal inertia on indoor comfort and energy performance. While mass timber’s structural and fire-resistance properties are well documented, its whole-building thermal behavior has received limited attention. Field data, simulation results, and resilience testing from this study will inform future modeling practices, design guidelines, and construction practices by quantifying the unique thermal and demand-flexibility benefits of mass timber construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

A frozen Gaussian approximation-based multi-level particle swarm optimization for seismic inversion

In this paper, we propose a frozen Gaussian approximation (FGA)-based multi-level particle swarm optimization (MLPSO) method for seismic inversion of high-frequency wave data. The method addresses two challenges in it: First, the optimization problem is highly non-convex, which makes hard for gradient-based methods to reach global minima. This is tackled by MLPSO which can escape from undesired local minima. Second, the character of high-frequency of seismic waves requires a large number of grid points in direct computational methods, and thus renders an extremely high computational demand on the simulation of each sample in MLPSO. We overcome this difficulty by three steps: First, we use FGA to compute high-frequency wave propagation based on asymptotic analysis on phase plane; Then we design a constrained full waveform inversion problem to prevent the optimization search getting into regions of velocity where FGA is not accurate; Last, we solve the constrained optimization problem by MLPSO that employs FGA solvers with different fidelity. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by a two-dimensional full-waveform inversion example of the smoothed Marmousi model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change

The difference in land use modeling approaches is an important uncertain factor in evaluating future climate scenarios in global economic models. We compare five widely used land use modeling approaches: constrained optimization, constant elasticity of transformation (CET), the additive form of constant elasticity of transformation (ACET), logit, and Ricardian. We demonstrate that the approaches differ not only by the extent of parameter uses but also by the definition of conversion cost and the consideration of comparative advantage implied by land heterogeneity. We develop a generalized hybrid approach that incorporates ACET/logit and Ricardian to account for both conversion cost and comparative advantage. We use this hybrid approach to estimate future climate impacts on agriculture. We find a welfare loss of about 0.38–0.46% of the global GDP. We demonstrate that ignoring land heterogeneity or land conversion costs underestimates climate impacts on agricultural production and welfare.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multiparameter Estimation in Networked Quantum Sensors

We introduce a general model for a network of quantum sensors, and we use this model to consider the question: When can entanglement between the sensors, and/or global measurements, enhance the precision with which the network can measure a set of unknown parameters? We rigorously answer this question by presenting precise theorems proving that for a broad class of problems there is, at most, a very limited intrinsic advantage to using entangled states or global measurements. Moreover, for many estimation problems separable states and local measurements are optimal, and can achieve the ultimate quantum limit on the estimation uncertainty. This immediately implies that there are broad conditions under which simultaneous estimation of multiple parameters cannot outperform individual, independent estimations. Our results apply to any situation in which spatially localized sensors are unitarily encoded with independent parameters, such as when estimating multiple linear or non-linear optical phase shifts in quantum imaging, or when mapping out the spatial profile of an unknown magnetic field. We conclude by showing that entangling the sensors can enhance the estimation precision when the parameters of interest are global properties of the entire network.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving wafer-scale Josephson junction resistance variation in superconducting quantum coherent circuits

Quantum bits, or qubits, are an example of coherent circuits envisioned for next-generation computers and detectors. A robust superconducting qubit with a coherent lifetime of O (100 µs) is the transmon: a Josephson junction functioning as a non-linear inductor shunted with a capacitor to form an anharmonic oscillator. In a complex device with many such transmons, precise control over each qubit frequency is often required, and thus variations of the junction area and tunnel barrier thickness must be sufficiently minimized to achieve optimal performance while avoiding spectral overlap between neighboring circuits. Simply transplanting our recipe optimized for single, stand-alone devices to wafer-scale (producing 64, 1x1 cm dies from a 150 mm wafer) initially resulted in global drifts in room-temperature tunneling resistance of ± 30%. Inferring a critical current variation from this resistance distribution, we present an optimized process developed from a systematic 38 wafer study that results in < 3.5% relative standard deviation (RSD) in critical current ( ) for 3000 Josephson junctions (both single-junctions and asymmetric SQUIDs) across an area of 49 cm 2 . Looking within a 1x1 cm moving window across the substrate gives an estimate of the variation characteristic of a given qubit chip. Our best process, utilizing ultrasonically assisted development, uniform ashing, and dynamic oxidation has shown = 1.8% within 1x1 cm, on average, with a few 1x1 cm areas having < 1.0% (equivalent to < 0.5%). Such stability would drastically improve the yield of multi-junction chips with strict critical current requirements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Flexible Quasi-Static Mooring Design Optimization Method for Floating Structures

This paper presents a flexible and efficient design method for optimizing the mooring systems of floating structures. Mooring system optimization is challenging because of the strong nonlinearity of mooring system behavior and the many technical constraints that must be satisfied. Furthermore, different mooring configurations can have very different design spaces. While some successful examples of mooring design optimization exist in the literature, developing an optimization approach that can work across various mooring design problems is a larger challenge. We present such a method based on a flexible parameterization that allows a wide variety of mooring designs to be described by a list of variables, a quasi-static mooring model that provides efficient evaluation of a mooring design without directly considering mooring system dynamics, and an optimization framework that generates, evaluates, and adjusts the mooring design while considering user-specified constraints such as offset limits, strength safety factors, and seabed contact limits. We demonstrate the design optimization framework on four mooring design problems, each for a different type of mooring system. We compare the use of different design modes to simplify the optimization problem, showing that they can reduce the computation time by up to 75%. We also compare different optimization algorithms and find that the resulting computational speed can vary by up to 51 times. We perform a sensitivity study on one design and find that the local sensitivity of anchoring radius to water depth has a positive correlation of 0.29, but the global sensitivity shows large nonlinearities. Lastly, we perform a coupled dynamic analysis on one of the optimized designs and find that the predicted mean platform motions and mooring line tensions are within 1% of dynamic results and the extreme motions and tensions are within 14%. Lastly, we show that a DEA-Chain-Polyester mooring configuration is cost-optimal for the given design problem of the demonstrations, which aligns with general industry practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-objective optimization of root phenotypes for nutrient capture using evolutionary algorithms

Root phenotypes are avenues to the development of crop cultivars with improved nutrient capture, which is an important goal for global agriculture. The fitness landscape of root phenotypes is highly complex and multidimensional. It is difficult to predict which combinations of traits (phene states) will create the best performing integrated phenotypes in various environments. Brute force methods to map the fitness landscape by simulating millions of phenotypes in multiple environments are computationally challenging. Evolutionary optimization algorithms may provide more efficient avenues to explore high dimensional domains such as the root phenotypic space. We coupled the three-dimensional functional–structural plant model, SimRoot, to the Borg Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) and the evolutionary search over several generations facilitated the identification of optimal root phenotypes balancing trade-offs across nutrient uptake, biomass accumulation, and root carbon costs in environments varying in nutrient availability. Our results show that several combinations of root phenes generate optimal integrated phenotypes where performance in one objective comes at the cost of reduced performance in one or more of the remaining objectives, and such combinations differed for mobile and non-mobile nutrients and for maize (a monocot) and bean (a dicot). Functional–structural plant models can be used with multi-objective optimization to identify optimal root phenotypes under various environments, including future climate scenarios, which will be useful in developing the more resilient, efficient crops urgently needed in global agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Optimization Using Metamodeling in the Context of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)

Predictive Design Technologies, LLC (PDT) proposed to employ Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools to help the manufacturing industry in the United States regain the competitive advantage in the global economy. ICME uses computational materials science tools within a holistic system in order to accelerate materials development, improve design optimization, and unify design and manufacturing. With the advent of accurate modeling and simulation along with significant increases in high performance computing (HPC) power, virtual design and manufacturing using ICME tools provide the means to reduce product development time and cost by alleviating costly trial-and-error physical design iterations while improving overall quality and manufacturing efficiency. To reduce the computational cost necessary for the large-scale HPC simulations and to make the methodology accessible for small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), metamodels are employed. Metamodels are approximate models (functional relationships between input and output variables) that can reduce the simulation times by one to two orders of magnitude. In Phase I, PDT, partnered with Mississippi State University (MSU), demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed methodology by employing MSU?s internal state variable (ISV) plasticity-damage model with the help of metamodels to optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost for tube manufacturing processes used by Plymouth Tube Company (PTC), which involves complicated temperature and mechanical loading histories. PDT quantified the microstructure-property relationships for PTC?s SAE J525 electric resistance-welded cold drawn low carbon hydraulic 1010 steel tube manufacturing processes at seven different material states and calibrated the ISV plasticity material parameters to fit experimental tensile stress-strain curves. PDT successfully performed large scale finite element (FE) simulations in an HPC environment using the ISV plasticity model in Abaqus FE analyses of the tube forming, sizing, drawing, welding, and normalizing processes. The simulation results coupled with the manufacturing cost data were used to develop prototype metamodeling (quick response) codes which could be used to predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. The developed ICME metamodeling toolkits are flexible enough to be applied to other manufacturing processes (e.g. forging, forming, casting, extrusion, rolling, stamping, and welding/joining) and metamodeling codes can run on laptop computers. Based on the work completed in Phase I, in Phase II, PDT proposes to continue to refine the ISV model by correlating and incorporating the uncertainties in the microstructure, mechanical testing, and modeling. Following the model refinement, FE analyses will be simulated and will provide even more realistic predictions as they include an appropriate window of uncertainty. Using the HPC output (FE analyses) as input, the quick-response metamodel codes will more accurately predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. Furthermore, PDT propose to employ the ICME metamodeling toolkits to help develop a new tube product using entirely new high strength steel. The modeling of the high strength steel manufacturing process will replace the costly and time consuming trial-and-error methods that were used in the tubing industry previously. This simulation-based process prototyping will greatly benefit our industrial partners by opening up new market spaces due to new products with greater capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Advanced N -body Model for Interacting Multiple Stellar Systems

We construct an advanced model for interacting multiple stellar systems in which we compute all trajectories with a numerical N -body integrator, namely the Bulirsch–Stoer from the SWIFT package. We can then derive various observables: astrometric positions, radial velocities, minima timings (TTVs), eclipse durations, interferometric visibilities, closure phases, synthetic spectra, spectral energy distribution, and even complete light curves. We use a modified version of the Wilson–Devinney code for the latter, in which the instantaneous true phase and inclination of the eclipsing binary are governed by the N -body integration. If all of these types of observations are at one’s disposal, a joint χ {sup 2} metric and an optimization algorithm (a simplex or simulated annealing) allow one to search for a global minimum and construct very robust models of stellar systems. At the same time, our N -body model is free from artifacts that may arise if mutual gravitational interactions among all components are not self-consistently accounted for. Finally, we present a number of examples showing dynamical effects that can be studied with our code and we discuss how systematic errors may affect the results (and how to prevent this from happening).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of a Lithium Ion Battery Bioleaching Process Utilizing Organic Acids Produced by Gluconobacter oxydans

Growing our global economic and environmental focus relies, in part, on our development of a sustainable system to recycle valuable metals. This endeavor to recycle these elements falls within the scope of Idaho National Laboratories (INL) mission to pursue new sustainable energy systems that are competitive. To succeed in this endeavor in not only a low-cost but environmentally safe practice, Gluconobacter oxydans was utilized for its ability to produce a bio-lixiviant known for its critical material leaching abilities. G. oxydans is a rod-shaped, gram negative, acidophilic, and obligately aerobic organism. Unlike many other aerobic organisms, it does not completely oxidize its carbon sources to water and carbon dioxide. Instead it incompletely oxidizes its substrates to aldehydes, ketones and organic acids. Because of this metabolic pathway, it was utilized in a batch reactor setting to produce sufficient amounts of a low-pH bio-lixiviant so that leaching processes could be performed on lithium ion battery cathode powders. Some of these processes included adding different molar ratios of a redox agent to the produced bio-lixiviant, alternating concentrations of lithium ion battery cathode powders, varying leaching time, and changing the temperature each leach was performed at. From this, a biohydrometallurgy process was successfully created for the leaching of cobalt from lithium ion cathode powders This project provided a multitude of laboratory and research experiences that resulted in ample opportunity for professional and personal growth. In addition to this, the INL experience fostered the development of many personal skills and business skills to assist in future career opportunities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Optimal design of geodesically stiffened composite cylindrical shells

An optimization system based on the finite element code Computations Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed and the optimization program, Automated Design Synthesis (ADS), is described. The optimization system can be used to obtain minimum-weight designs of composite stiffened structures. Ply thickness, ply orientations, and stiffener heights can be used as design variables. Buckling, displacement, and material failure constraints can be imposed on the design. The system is used to conduct a design study of geodesically stiffened shells. For comparison purposes, optimal designs of unstiffened shells and shells stiffened by rings and stingers are also obtained. Trends in the design of geodesically stiffened shells are identified. An approach to include local stress concentrations during the design optimization process is then presented. The method is based on a global/local analysis technique. It employs spline interpolation functions to determine displacements and rotations from a global model which are used as 'boundary conditions' for the local model. The organization of the strategy in the context of an optimization process is described. The method is validated with an example.

Gendron, G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

NASA NTRS1979

Acoustic duct liner optimization using finite elements

Determination of a mathematical model which may be used for obtaining optimum acoustic liners in aeroengine ducts was the goal of this study. Starting with a baseline finite element model which consumed too much computer time to permit optimum liner evaluation for realistic ducts and source frequencies, a survey was conducted of candidate methods for reducing computational effort. A highly effective boundary exclusive decomposition method was developed which enables L-U decomposition of a major partition of the global matrix to be performed once only. Timing experiments using the technique in duct liner optimization show a reduction of between one and two orders of magnitude in the central processor unit (CPU) time of the baseline model.

Abrahamson, A. L.↗