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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

ARM FY2025 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is dedicated to delivering high-quality radar data that significantly advance our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes, improving climate models. With radars operating across diverse frequencies, scanning modes, and global climate conditions, extensive staffing is essential for effective management. Due to current staffing constraints, achieving the expected level of operational excellence requires a more strategic approach. To address this challenge, ARM has developed an operational radar plan for the upcoming Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) based on budget and staffing considerations. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) ARM radar-related activities and outlines the strategic plan for FY25. It presents a comprehensive radar plan that includes detailed activities, priorities, and a projected timeline aligned with the ARM radar roadmap. Key tasks, detailed in Table 1, cover various radar operational stages and coordinated efforts among ARM teams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Propagation measurements in Alaska using ACTS beacons

The placement of an ACTS propagation terminal in Alaska has several distinct advantages. First is the inclusion of a new and important climatic zone to the global propagation model. Second is the low elevation look angle from Alaska to ACTS. These two unique opportunities also present problems unique to the location, such as extreme temperatures and lower power levels. These problems are examined and compensatory solutions are presented.

Mayer, Charles E.↗

Measurements of thermal infrared spectral reflectance of frost, snow, and ice

Because much of Earth's surface is covered by frost, snow, and ice, the spectral emissivities of these materials are a significant input to radiation balance calculations in global atmospheric circulation and climate change models. Until now, however, spectral emissivities of frost and snow have been calculated from the optical constants of ice. We have measured directional hemispherical reflectance spectra of frost, snow, and ice from which emissivities can be predicted using Kirchhoff's law (e = 1-R). These measured spectra show that contrary to conclusions about the emissivity of snow drawn from previously calculated spectra, snow emissivity departs significantly from blackbody behavior in the 8-14 micrometer region of the spectrum; snow emissivity decreases with both increasing particle size and increasing density due to packing or grain welding; while snow emissivity increases due to the presence of meltwater.

Salisbury, John W.↗

A versatile system for processing geostationary satellite data with run-time visualization capability

To better predict global climate change, scientists are developing climate models that require interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts in their building. We are currently involved in several such projects but will briefly discuss activities in support of two such complementary projects: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program of the Department of Energy and Sequoia 2000, a joint venture of the University of California, the private sector, and government agencies. Our contribution to the ARM program is to investigate the role of clouds on the top of the atmosphere and on surface radiance fields through the data analysis of surface and satellite observations and complex modeling of the interaction of radiation with clouds. One of our first ARM research activities involves the computation of the broadband shortwave surface irradiance from satellite observations. Geostationary satellite images centered over the first ARM observation site are received hourly over the Internet network and processed in real time to compute hourly and daily composite shortwave irradiance fields. The images and the results are transferred via a high-speed network to the Sequoia 2000 storage facility in Berkeley, where they are archived These satellite-derived results are compared with the surface observations to evaluate the accuracy of the satellite estimate and the spatial representation of the surface observations. In developing the software involved in calculating the surface shortwave irradiance, we have produced an environment whereby we can easily modify and monitor the data processing as required. Through the principles of modular programming, we have developed software that is easily modified as new algorithms for computation are developed or input data availability changes. In addition, the software was designed so that it could be run from an interactive, icon-driven, graphical interface, TCL-TK, developed by Sequoia 2000 participants. In this way, the data flow can be interactively assessed and altered as needed. In this environment, the intermediate data processing 'images' can be viewed, enabling the investigator to easily monitor the various data processing steps as they progress. Additionally, this environment allows the rapid testing of new processing modules and allows their effects to be visually compared with previous results.

Landsfeld, M.↗

High-Level Clouds and Relation to Sea Surface Temperature as Inferred from Japan's GMS Measurements

High-level clouds have a significant impact on the radiation energy budgets and, hence, the climate of the Earth. Convective cloud systems, which are controlled by large-scale thermal and dynamical conditions, propagate rapidly within days. At this time scale, changes of sea surface temperature (SST) are small. Radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to study the relation between high-level clouds and SST in the tropical western and central Pacific (30 S-30 N; 130 E-170 W), where the ocean is warm and deep convection is intensive. Twenty months (January 1998 - August, 1999) of GMS data are used, which cover the second half of the strong 1997-1998 El Nino. Brightness temperature at the 11-micron channel is used to identify high-level clouds. The core of convection is identified based on the difference in the brightness temperatures of the 11- and 12-micron channels. Because of the rapid movement of clouds, there is little correlation between clouds six hours apart. When most of deep convection moves to regions of high SST, the domain averaged high-level cloud amount decreases. A +2C change of SST in cloudy regions results in a relative change of -30% in high-level cloud amount. This large change in cloud amount is due to clouds moving from cool regions to warm regions but not the change in SST itself. A reduction in high-level cloud amount in the equatorial region implies an expanded dry upper troposphere in the off-equatorial region, and the greenhouse warming of high clouds and water vapor is reduced through enhanced longwave cooling to space. The results are important for understanding the physical processes relating SST, convection, and water vapor in the tropics. They are also important for validating climate simulations using global general circulation models.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

Evaluation of Convective Transport in the GEOS-5 Chemistry and Climate Model

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Chemistry and Climate Model (CCM) consists of a global atmospheric general circulation model and the combined stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry package from the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model. The subgrid process of convective tracer transport is represented through the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert parameterization in the GEOS-5 CCM. However, substantial uncertainty for tracer transport is associated with this parameterization, as is the case with all global and regional models. We have designed a project to comprehensively evaluate this parameterization from the point of view of tracer transport, and determine the most appropriate improvements that can be made to the GEOS-5 convection algorithm, allowing improvement in our understanding of the role of convective processes in determining atmospheric composition. We first simulate tracer transport in individual observed convective events with a cloud-resolving model (WRF). Initial condition tracer profiles (CO, CO2, O3) are constructed from aircraft data collected in undisturbed air, and the simulations are evaluated using aircraft data taken in the convective anvils. A single-column (SCM) version of the GEOS-5 GCM with online tracers is then run for the same convective events. SCM output is evaluated based on averaged tracer fields from the cloud-resolving model. Sensitivity simulations with adjusted parameters will be run in the SCM to determine improvements in the representation of convective transport. The focus of the work to date is on tropical continental convective events from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) field mission in August 2006 that were extensively sampled by multiple research aircraft.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

In this talk, I will begin by discussing the physical processes that govern the competition between heterogeneous and homogeneous ice nucleation in upper tropospheric cirrus clouds. Next, I will review the current knowledge of low-temperature ice nucleation from laboratory experiments and field measurements. I will then discuss the uncertainties and deficiencies in representations of cirrus processes in global models used to estimate the climate impacts of changes in cirrus clouds. Lastly, I will review the critical field measurements needed to advance our understanding of cirrus and their susceptibility to changes in aerosol properties.

Jensen, Eric↗

Remote Sensing of Crystal Shapes in Ice Clouds

Ice crystals in clouds exist in a virtually limitless variation of geometries. The most basic shapes of ice crystals are columnar or plate-like hexagonal prisms with aspect ratios determined by relative humidity and temperature. However, crystals in ice clouds generally display more complex structures owing to aggregation, riming and growth histories through varying temperature and humidity regimes. Crystal shape is relevant for cloud evolution as it affects microphysical properties such as fall speeds and aggregation efficiency. Furthermore, the scattering properties of ice crystals are affected by their general shape, as well as by microscopic features such as surface roughness, impurities and internal structure. To improve the representation of ice clouds in climate models, increased understanding of the global variation of crystal shape and how it relates to, e.g., location, cloud temperature and atmospheric state is crucial. Here, the remote sensing of ice crystal macroscale and microscale structure from airborne and space-based lidar depolarization observations and multi-directional measurements of total and polarized reflectances is reviewed. In addition, a brief overview is given of in situ and laboratory observations of ice crystal shape as well as the optical properties of ice crystals that serve as foundations for the remote sensing approaches. Lidar depolarization is generally found to increase with increasing cloud height and to vary with latitude. Although this variation is generally linked to the variation of ice crystal shape, the interpretation of the depolarization remains largely qualitative and more research is needed before quantitative conclusions about ice shape can be deduced. The angular variation of total and polarized reflectances of ice clouds has been analyzed by numerous studies in order to infer information about ice crystal shapes from them. From these studies it is apparent that pristine crystals with smooth surfaces are generally inconsistent with the data and thus crystal impurity, distortion or surface roughness is prevalent. However, conclusions about the dominating ice shapes are often inconclusive and contradictory and are highly dependent on the limited selection of shapes included in the investigations. Since ice crystal optical properties are mostly determined by the aspect ratios of the crystal components and their microscale structure, it is advised that remote sensing applications focus on the variation of these ice shape characteristics, rather than on the macroscale shape or habit. Recent studies use databases with nearly continuous ranges of crystal component aspect ratio and-or roughness levels to infer the variation of ice crystal shape from satellite and airborne remote sensing measurements. Here, the rationale and results of varying strategies for the remote sensing of ice crystal shape are reviewed. Observed systematic variations of ice crystal geometry with location, cloud height and atmospheric state suggested by the data are discussed. Finally, a prospective is given on the future of the remote sensing of ice cloud particle shapes.

clouds↗

Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss the key field measurements needed to constrain ice nucleation processes.

Jensen, Eric↗

Desert Dust, Industrialization and Agricultural Fires: Health Impacts of Outdoor Air Pollution in Africa

The African continent continuously experiences extreme aerosol load conditions, during which the World Health Organizational (WHO) clean air standard of 10 μgm(exp ‐3) of PM(2.5) mass is systematically exceeded. Africa holds the world largest source of desert dust emissions, undergoes strong industrial growth, and produces approximately a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles. Sub‐Saharan biomass burning is driven by agricultural practices, such as burning fields and bushes in the post‐harvest season for fertilization, land management and pest control. Thus, these emissions are predominantly anthropogenic. Here we use global atmospheric composition, climate, and health models to simulate the chemical composition of the atmosphere and calculate the mortality rates for Africa by distinguishing between purely natural, industrial/domestic and biomass burning emissions. Air quality related deaths in Africa rank within the top leading causes of death in Africa. Our results of ~780,000 premature deaths annually point to the extensive health impacts of natural emissions, high mortality rate caused by industrialization in Nigeria and South Africa, and to a smaller extent by fire emissions in Central and West Africa. 43,000 premature deaths in Africa are linked to biomass burning mainly driven by agriculture. Our results also show that natural sources, in particular windblown dust emissions, have large impacts on air quality and human health in Africa.

fires↗

Chemistry of Venus’ Recent Basalts as Clues to its Ancient Past

Perhaps the most important question about Venus is whether it ever had a hydrosphere: liquid water, oceans, and thus an environment suitable for life as we know it. The D/H of Venus’ atmosphere suggests extensive water loss, and climate models may be consistent with global oceans. Rocks dating from that epoch may be preserved in Venus’ tesserae (and especially Ishtar Terra) – inferred to of felsic or silicic rock, which would suggest abundant water. However, the exact elemental compositions of tesserae (silicic or not) will be difficult to retrieve and most of Venus’ surface is basalt flows and volcanic constructs, inferred to be much younger than the oceanic epoch. Remotely sensed data are (and will be) ambiguous about the specific rock types that make up tesserae, and lander spacecraft are almost certain (in the near term) to avoid the rough and precipitous topography of the tesserae and touch down instead on flat, safe basaltic plains or volcanic rises. ‘Recent’ basalts at Venus’ surface could preserve chemical tracers of an ancient aqueous past, if their source regions (material that was re-melted) had been affected by water. This scenario occurs on Earth in Island Arc Basalts (IAB), where their compositions are thought to reflect aqueous alteration of parental midocean ridge basalts (MORB) and incorporation of oceanic sediments. Ancient Venus might have supported plate tectonic and thus have had IAB equivalents; absent plate tectonics, basalt affected by aqueous alteration could have been cycled into its mantle by burial under thick sections of later basalt. Our purpose is to suggest specific chemical clues in current basalts that would permit recognition of those with a history of aqueous interactions from those that did not. We compare Earth’s Ocean Island Basalts (OIB) that involved little water with IAB that show chemical effects ascribable to water. It is not clear that Venus’ basalts can be mapped into terrestrial tectonic settings; however, it seems reasonable that aqueous geochemical processes could have (had) similar effects on both planets.

A H Treiman↗

Performance Results on CPU/GPU Exascale Architectures for OMEGA: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications

The US Department of Energy (DOE) conducts climate simulations on some of the world’s largest supercomputers. These exascale machines use heterogeneous architectures with both CPUs and GPUs, and scientific codes must adapt to make full use of this computing power. Los Alamos National Lab is developing Omega: The Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications, which is specifically designed for modern exascale computers. It uses external libraries that have been optimized for a variety of architectures to run on different supercomputers. Omega is an unstructured-mesh ocean model based on TRiSK numerical methods. It will be the new ocean component of the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The algorithms in Omega follow those of the current ocean component, MPAS-Ocean, but it will be written in C++ rather than Fortran to take advantage of the Kokkos performance portability library. Omega spatial operators are written as Kokkos kernels to run efficiently on both CPUs and GPUs. Work on Omega began in 2023 with a new C++ framework for unstructured mesh partitioning, halo exchanges, parallel IO, and Kokkos interfaces. The current version, Omega-0, is being developed to solve the shallow water equations and at present includes all of the tendency terms but not time stepping. Here we share the results of Omega-0 verification and performance testing. Verification includes unit tests implemented with CTest as well as convergence tests in Polaris, an in-house python package with a large suite of test problems. Performance tests compare simulations conducted on CPUs versus GPUs and across different architectures: tests are run on Frontier, which has AMD “Optimized 3rd Gen EPYC” CPUs and AMD MI250X GPUs, as well as Perlmutter, which is composed of AMD EPYC 7763 CPUs and NVIDIA A100 GPUs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Confronting Future Models with Future Satellite Observations of Clouds and Aerosols

The NASA Aerosol, Clouds, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) Study convened a workshop in November 2020 to understand the future of modeling aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation, and how satellite data can contribute to that future. ACCP is a project to define a satellite mission to be launched late in the 2020’s to advance cloud and aerosol science, following the recommendations of the latest NASA Decadal Survey. The ACCP modeling workshop goal was to answer the following questions: 1. What will be the critical science questions for clouds and aerosols in 10 years? 2. Where will simulations of clouds and aerosols across scales of space (process models to global) and time (nowcasting to climate prediction) be in 10 years? 3. What data will be available from space? What data would provide the most benefit? 4. What are the state of the art methods for confronting models with cloud and aerosol observations, including assimilation and climatological analysis techniques? The virtual workshop was anchored by a series of pre-recorded talks. Two days of synchronous sessions focused on discussion of the talks, along with small group breakout exercises. After an introduction to the ACCP concept came a panel discussing the future of modeling clouds and aerosols across scales. Participants were then asked to contribute their ideas. On the second day, there were two panel discussions. First came a discussion of the future of satellite observing systems. Second was a discussion of model-data synthesis methods. Finally, participants were asked to develop their own model-data synthesis proposal. The meeting began with an overview of the ACCP mission concept by Graeme Stephens (NASA-JPL). ACCP is a satellite mission for clouds and aerosols, likely anchored by advanced active lidar and radar systems in space, designed to observe detailed aerosol profile and type information, as well as cloud microphysics and dynamics. ACCP will integrate across sensors and observational types to get multi-spectral views of the same scenes, with better resolution than is available today. Launch is scheduled for 2027 or 2029. ACCP is being thought of as a comprehensive mission that may comprise more than one platform and more than one orbit plane (i.e., inclined and polar), with multiple combinations of sensors.

Future Models↗

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

The State of Scientific Visualization with Regard to the NASA EOS Mission to Planet Earth

In support of the mission to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, John R. Christy and Nathaniel D. Reynolds investigated a wide range of topics. Christy worked closely with NASA scientist Roy Spencer to develop a data set of precision temperature measurements using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. The data from this effort has received international recognition as they provide a source of precise information for the most difficult of environmental issues in the global climate change arena. In addition, Christy coordinated modeling research with NASA scientist Franklin Robertson with research focusing on the validation of global model output using various satellite data with sophisticated statistical techniques. Reynolds worked with NASA scientist Timothy Miller on idealized flows in a rotating annulus and the application of the results to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Additional work was carried out in investigation of stratospheric ozone fluctuations due to dynamical causes.

Christy, John R.↗

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1-H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5 in the E2.1-G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low-end scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

climate models↗

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

Intensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. Here, we show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop-climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗