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Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ECAR-1406 AS-RUN NEUTRONIC ANALYSIS OF THE AGC-1 EXPERIMENT IRRADIATED IN THE ATR SOUTH FLUX TRAP

This Engineering Calculations Analysis Report (ECAR) documents the results of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) detailed physics analyses performed to calculate the displacements per atom (DPA) and the fast neutron fluence (E > 0.1 MeV) of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment, AGC-1, irradiated in the ATR South Flux Trap (SFT) (see Figure 1) during ATR Cycle 145A, Cycle 145B, Cycle 146A, Cycle 146B, Cycle 147A, Cycle 148A and Cycle 148B. The results for these evaluations and analysis are reported herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Amine Oxidation Catalyzed by NO 2

Amine oxidation is a major risk in the deployment of amine scrubbing for CO2 capture from post-combustion flue gas. Oxidation probably occurs by dissolved oxygen at elevated temperature, Fe(III)/Fe(II) shuttling between the absorber and the stripper, and by NO2 in the absorber. Amine selection, dissolved oxygen removal, and solvent reclaiming mitigate oxidation due to dissolved oxygen and iron shuttle mechanism, but not by NO2. This work examines piperazine (PZ) oxidation by NO2 in a bench-scale high gas flow reactor (HGF). PZ is an effective second-generation solvent with high CO2 capacity, fast capture rate, good thermal stability, and good resistance to oxidation. Flue gas typically contains 0.5–5 ppm NO2 and 10–100 ppm NO. NO2 at 1 ppm in the flue gas appears to cause significant amine oxidation in pilot plant testing. PZ solution can easily absorb NO2, and it is hypothesized that NO2 can catalytically oxidize PZ through free-radical propagation. The issue may not be solved by a NO2 pre-scrubber since the coexistence of NO and O2 in the flue gas will keep producing non-negligible amounts of NO2 in the ductwork and the absorber after the NO2 incoming with the flue gas has been scrubbed. In addition, NO2 may not only oxidize PZ but also the intermediate degradation products, and it is unknown if the existence of dissolved iron influences the oxidation by NO2. Previous workers have also shown that NO2 is the stoichiometric source of nitrosamine. A comprehensive analysis of NO2 oxidation is needed to address solvent management and its health/environmental impact. The new high gas flow (HGF) reactor focuses only on the absorber environment and is simpler to interpret because it does not include oxidation at high temperatures and by dissolved metal catalysts from corrosion. This paper presents the results of HGF experiments and shows evidence to support a hypothesis of amine oxidation catalyzed by NO2, presents the synergic effect of NO2 and iron on amine oxidation, points out the different effects of NO2 in clean and degraded solvents, and demonstrates that NO2 not only can oxidize amines but also their degradation products.

NO2, iron, piperazine (PZ), solvent oxidation, sol↗

Reduced-order CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusion for pellet fueling

This study presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusions, focusing on protium (H₂) and deuterium (D₂) piston extruders. Using a 2D axisymmetric ROM in ANSYS-Polyflow, significant computational savings were achieved (runtime reduced from 9∼24 h to 3∼5 min), with extrusion force discrepancies between the 2D ROM and 3D models being on the order of 1%. Parametric studies identified optimal cutoff shear rates in the viscosity model (0.01/s for H₂ and 0.001/s for D₂), providing recommendations for future simulations. Finally, a comprehensive comparison of ROM results with experimental data was performed across varying geometries, cryogenic materials, temperatures, extrusion lengths, and piston velocities. Predictions at low extrusion temperatures met the objective of providing quick and efficient solutions with an acceptable extrusion force error of approximately 10% or less, validating the effectiveness of the 2D ROM approach. However, at high temperatures closer to the triple point, extrusion force error grows, which necessitates developing an improved model that accounts for temperature effects, e.g. melting. Nevertheless, the findings still represent a significant improvement in efficiency of CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogenic extrusion. The ROM framework can also be extended to tritium (T2) and screw extruders, which will ultimately provide a fast and effective tool for optimizing pellet injector design for ITER and future reactor systems.

Fan, Joy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000229751735)↗

A sustained high-temperature fusion plasma regime facilitated by fast ions

Nuclear fusion is one of the most attractive alternatives to carbon-dependent energy sources. Harnessing energy from nuclear fusion in a large reactor scale, however, still presents many scientific challenges despite the many years of research and steady advances in magnetic confinement approaches. State-of-the-art magnetic fusion devices cannot yet achieve a sustainable fusion performance, which requires a high temperature above 100 million kelvin and sufficient control of instabilities to ensure steady-state operation on the order of tens of seconds. Here, in this study, we report experiments at the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research device producing a plasma fusion regime that satisfies most of the above requirements: thanks to abundant fast ions stabilizing the core plasma turbulence, we generate plasmas at a temperature of 100 million kelvin lasting up to 20 seconds without plasma edge instabilities or impurity accumulation. A low plasma density combined with a moderate input power for operation is key to establishing this regime by preserving a high fraction of fast ions. This regime is rarely subject to disruption and can be sustained reliably even without a sophisticated control, and thus represents a promising path towards commercial fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ECAR-3051 As-Run Physics Analysis For The AGC-3 Experiment Irradiated In The ATR

This Engineering Calculations Analysis Report (ECAR) documents the results of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) detailed physics analyses performed to calculate the displacements per atom (DPA) and the fast neutron fluence (E > 0.1 MeV) of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment, AGC-3, irradiated in the ATR East Flux Trap (EFT) (see Figure 1) during ATR Cycle 152B, Cycle 154B, Cycle 155A, and Cycle 155B. This ECAR also reports the neutron and photon heat rates for the materials of the AGC-3 experiment for ATR Cycle 152B. The results for these evaluations and analysis are reported herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ECAR-2291 AS-RUN PHYSICS ANALYSIS FOR THE AGC-2 EXPERIMENT IRRADIATED IN THE ATR

This Engineering Calculations Analysis Report (ECAR) documents the results of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) detailed physics analyses performed to calculate the displacements per atom (DPA) and the fast neutron fluence (E > 0.1 MeV) of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment, AGC-2, irradiated in the ATR South Flux Trap (SFT) (see Figure 1) during ATR Cycle 149A, Cycle 149B, Cycle 150B, Cycle 151A, and Cycle 151B. This ECAR also reports the neutron and photon heat rates for the materials of the AGC-2 experiment for ATR Cycle 149B. The results for these evaluations and analysis are reported herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ultrawide bandgap semiconductor h-BN for direct detection of fast neutrons

III-nitride wide bandgap semiconductors have contributed on the grandest scale to many technological advances in lighting, displays, and power electronics. Among III-nitrides, BN has another unique application as a solid-state neutron detector material because the isotope B-10 is among a few elements that have an unusually large interaction cross section with thermal neutrons. A record high thermal neutron detection efficiency of 60% has been achieved by B-10 enriched h-BN detectors of 100 μm in thickness in our group. However, direct detection of fast neutrons with energies above 1 MeV is highly challenging due to the extremely low interaction cross section of fast neutrons with matter. We report the successful attainment of 0.4 mm thick freestanding h-BN 4"-diameter wafers, which enabled the demonstration of h-BN fast neutron detectors capable of delivering a detection efficiency of 2.2% in response to a bare AmBe neutron source. Furthermore, it was shown that the energy information of incoming fast neutrons is retained in the neutron pulse-height spectra. A comparison of characteristics between h-BN fast and thermal neutron detectors is summarized. Neutron detectors are vital diagnostic instruments for nuclear and fusion reactor power and safety monitoring, oil field exploration, neutron imaging and therapy, as well as for plasma and material science research. With the outstanding attributes resulting from its ultrawide bandgap (UWBG), including the ability to operate at extreme conditions of high power, voltage, and temperature, the availability of h-BN UWBG semiconductor detectors with the capability of simultaneously detecting thermal and fast neutrons with high efficiencies is expected to open unprecedented applications that are not possible to attain by any other types of neutron detectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Software Quality Assurance for the MOOSE-Based Open-Source Multiphysics Code Cardinal - An Expanded CI Testing Suite

Cardinal is a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and the Monte Carlo particle transport code OpenMC within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Cardinal provides high-resolution thermal-hydraulics and/or radiation transport feedback to MOOSE multiphysics simulations. Multiphysics feedback is implemented in a geometry-agnostic manner which eliminates the need for rigid one-to-one mappings. A generic data transfer implementation also allows NekRS and OpenMC to couple to any MOOSE application, enabling a broad set of multiphysics capabilities. Cardinal simulations can also leverage combinations of MPI, OpenMP, and GPU resources. Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on developing, enhancing and, maintaining Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework and SQA program. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program has been initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). During the development of the Cardinal SQA Program, multiple gaps have been identified. These gaps are primarily related to model verification and code pedigree as they relate to the use of Cardinal as a safety analysis tool. These gaps have been captured in a report published in 2023. A second report highlighted the progress made during Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) and described Argonne’s effort to document and integrate software verification within Cardinal’s software development process. This report documents a snapshot of the verification test cases currently available for Cardinal and NekRS in their assimilation into a Continuous Integration (CI) platform. Following the CI practice permits the integrating of source code changes frequently and ensuring that the integrated codebase clears the verification testing for the software. It should be noted that the SQA program itself, including the program plans, procedures, configuration management, and testing strategies, need to be developed in a future step of this task.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Progress Towards NQA-1 for Cardinal in FY25

Cardinal is a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and the Monte Carlo particle transport code OpenMC within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Cardinal provides high-resolution thermal-hydraulics and/or radiation transport feedback to MOOSE multiphysics simulations. Multiphysics feedback is implemented in a geometry-agnostic manner which eliminates the need for rigid one-to-one mappings. A generic data transfer implementation also allows NekRS and OpenMC to couple to any MOOSE application, enabling a broad set of multiphysics capabilities. Cardinal simulations can also leverage combinations of MPI, OpenMP, and GPU resources. Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on developing, enhancing,and maintaining Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework and SQA program. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program was initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). During the development of the Cardinal SQA Program, multiple gaps have been identified. These gaps are primarily related to model verification and code pedigree as they relate to the use of Cardinal as an analysis tool. These gaps were captured in a report published in 2023. A second report highlighted the progress made during Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) and described Argonne’s effort to document and integrate software verification within Cardinal’s software development process. This report documents the progress made towards NQA-1 for Cardinal in the Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25). All cases in the expanded Continuous Integration (CI) suite of NekRS are included in this report which test the solvers and modules available in NekRS exhaustively. The NekRS tests are integrated with the Cardinal CI suite and made available in publicly accessible Github documentation. Following the CI practice permits integrating of source code changes frequently and ensuring that the integrated codebase clears the verification testing for the software. Also in this report is a brief overview of the development of the Cardinal Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) that was done in FY25, though it should be noted that the rest of the documentation for the SQA program needs to be developed in a future step of this task.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Preliminary Plan for Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Surveillance Materials from Palisades Nuclear Generating Station

The Palisades Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS), located in Michigan, is owned and operated by Entergy. It is a Combustion Engineering 2-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) producing 805 MWe (2,565 MWth). The PNGS was built between 1967 and 1970, with approval to operate at full power in 1973; the plant’s original license was due to expire on March 24, 2011. An application for 20-year extension was filed in 2005 with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and was granted on January 18, 2007. Although the plant was scheduled for decommissioning by 2031, Entergy currently plans to close the PNGS in 2022. The PNGS included in its reactor pressure vessel (RPV) surveillance program a capsule, designated A-60, containing specimens of one of the vessel plates and a weld metal with nickel content of about 1.36 wt% and copper content of about 0.20 wt%. This capsule was irradiated to a fluence of 1.8 x 10 20 n/cm 2 . The capsule was removed from its surveillance position in 1995 and has been resident in the spent fuel pool since that time. The material is also of special interest because of its very high nickel content and because of the potential for development of NiMnSi (nickel-manganese-silicon) precipitates, dubbed “late blooming phases.” The surveillance program also includes a capsule, designated T-150, dedicated specifically for thermal aging, which would provide results for at least 33 effective full power years, which is beyond the current thermal-aging database for such materials. Given that license extensions to 60 years of operation have been approved by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for most of the currently operating light water reactors in the United States, and that the first extension to 80 years was recently approved, there exists the probability that some RPVs will reach and possibly exceed a fast neutron fluence (> 1 MeV) of 1 x 10 20 n/cm 2 . This is a fluence regime with no US surveillance data and very little test reactor data, except for the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program–sponsored University of California Santa Barbara Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) ATR-2 project. Thus, the materials in the A-60 capsule represent a valuable resource for directly exploring the effects of commercial surveillance irradiation on a typical plate and a high-nickel weld with similar materials irradiated in the ATR-2 test reactor project. This report provides background information for the surveillance program, previous results of surveillance materials testing, the preliminary plan for capsule retrieval and disassembly, and the plan for testing and microstructural examination of the mechanical test specimens of these unique materials to assess the features induced by very high irradiation fluence or very long thermal aging time

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Expansion of the Fast Neutron Hodoscope at TREAT to Support Fuel Safety Experiments

In 2024 the Fuel Motion Monitoring System (FMMS), or Hodoscope, at the Transient Reactor Test Facility, is being expanded from 96 viewing channels to 192 viewing channels, effectively doubling the FMMS field of view. Here, this increase in capability will allow the FMMS to support larger scale fuel tests, encompassing height-of-core test devices, test devices with multi-pin fuel assemblies, and test devices with recirculating coolant flow. Work supporting the expansion included refurbishing 96 additional proton recoil scintillator (PRS) detectors, doubling the data acquisition system (DAS) installed architecture, improving time synchronization in the DAS, and new research to measure the PRS detector energy-dependent, fast-neutron detection efficiency. In addition, laboratory activities have produced an improved benchtop testing capability for assessing the DAS, time synchronization, and external start triggering, along with an updated capability to scan PRS detectors to develop a preliminary flat-field normalization prior to deployment to TREAT.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Software Quality Assurance, Software Requirements and Gap Analysis for the MOOSE-Based Open-Source Multiphysics Code Cardinal

Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on maintaining and enhancing Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program has been initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

In-Pile Irradiation Induced Defects and the Effect on Thermal Diffusivity of MgO

The effects of neutron irradiation temperature and dose on thermal diffusivity are compared between non-irradiated and in-pile irradiated MgO samples. MgO pellets were irradiated in-pile of the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory. Samples were irradiated at 623 and 973 K to fast neutron fluences of 1 x 1025 (1.5 dpa) and 2 x 1025 n/m2 (3 dpa). Post irradiation examination included X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, laser flash thermal diffusivity, and transmission electron microscopy. The radiation induced thermophysical and structural evolution of MgO is reported

T. Moorea, Donald↗

Open cycle gas core nuclear rockets

The open cycle gas core engine is a nuclear propulsion device. Propulsion is provided by hot hydrogen which is heated directly by thermal radiation from the nuclear fuel. Critical mass is sustained in the uranium plasma in the center. It has typically 30 to 50 kg of fuel. It is a thermal reactor in the sense that fissions are caused by absorption of thermal neutrons. The fast neutrons go out to an external moderator/reflector material and, by collision, slow down to thermal energy levels, and then come back in and cause fission. The hydrogen propellant is stored in a tank. The advantage of the concept is very high specific impulse because you can take the plasma to any temperature desired by increasing the fission level by withdrawing or turning control rods or control drums.

Ragsdale, Robert↗

MEASUREMENT OF THE NEUTRON FLUENCE-RATES IN THE ADVANCED TEST REACTOR

The axial neutron fluence-rate distribution at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is determined using a combination of pure nickel and cobalt-aluminium alloy dosimeter wires. Most irradiation programs at ATR need to know the fast neutron fluence-rate surrounding their experiment to correlate post-irradiation examination results with neutron dose. The activated dosimeter wires, which extend beyond the full fuelled region of the reactor core, are highly radioactive following the full cycle in ATR and must therefore be measured in the ATR canal. The system that is employed for these measurements is mechanical scanning mechanism is used to scan the activated wires across the face of a columnated shield and a NaI detector. This detector is not sufficiently calibrated to provide absolute activity measurements, therefore, the count-rate is recorded and normalized to the highest activity for that wire. Then, an approximately 3-mm long portion of the wire is removed from the highest activity region in the wire. The wires are then transferred, and an absolute activity measurement is made using a calibrated ionization chamber. These measurements are combined with corrections for decay, neutron energy spectrum, burnup, dosimeter composition, reactor power fluctuations, and reactor outages to determine the average axial neutron fluence-rate at various locations within ATR during the cycle.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗