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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

A Comparative Study of Distribution System Parameter Estimation Methods

In this paper, we compare two parameter estimation methods for distribution systems: residual sensitivity analysis and state-vector augmentation with a Kalman filter. These two methods were originally proposed for transmission systems, and are still the most commonly used methods for parameter estimation. Distribution systems have much lower measurement redundancy than transmission systems. Therefore, estimating parameters is much more difficult. To increase the robustness of parameter estimation, the two methods are applied with combined measurement snapshots (measurement sets taken at different points in time), so that the redundancy for computing the parameter values is increased. The advantages and disadvantages of both methods are discussed. The results of this paper show that state-vector augmentation is a better approach for parameter estimation in distribution systems. Simulation studies are done on a modified version of IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder with varying levels of measurement noise and non-zero error in the other system model parameters.

distribution system analysis↗

A Multi-Model Adaptive Kalman Filtering Approach to Power System Dynamic State Estimation

Accurate information about dynamic states (such as rotor angle and speed of a synchronous machine) is important for monitoring and controlling power system rotor-angle stability. In this paper, a multi-model adaptive Kalman filtering (MMAKF) approach is proposed to accurately and robustly estimate power system dynamic states. This approach consists of three major steps: (i) multiple Kalman filtering approaches, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and cubature Kalman filter (CKF), are run concurrently in parallel to estimate the dynamic states of a synchronous generator using phasor measurement unit data; (ii) probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of each estimation model, are determined at each time step using hypothesis testing based on the measurement innovation; (iii) the a posteriori estimate of states is obtained using the best-fix approach. The two-area four-machine system is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MMAKF approach. It is shown through the Monte-Carlo method that the estimation accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach is better than those from any individual filtering algorithm.

multi-model adaptive Kalman Filtering, Power Syste↗

Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation by Integrating Physical with Statistical Models

Accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is crucial for distribution grid control and optimization. Unfortunately, most of the residential solar PV installations are behind-the-meter. Thus, utilities only have access to the net load readings. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for estimating solar PV generation by disaggregating the net load readings. The proposed framework synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model with a statistical model for load estimation. Specifically, our algorithm iteratively estimates solar PV generation with a physical model and electric load with the Hidden Markov model regression. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is validated against net load and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. The validation results show that our method reduces mean squared error by 44% compared to the state-of-the-art disaggregation algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient Reinforcement in Secure State Estimation against Sensor Attacks with a priori Information

This paper deals with the state estimation problem in the presence of malicious sensor attacks. Unlike the existing work, in this paper, we address the problem with a priori information of the state to be estimated. Specifically, we address three prior knowledge: the sparsity information, (alpha, n_0)-sparsity information, and side information, and in each scenario, we show that the state can be reconstructed even if more sensors are compromised. This implies that the prior information reinforces the system resilience against sensor attacks. Then, an estimator under sensor attacks considering the information is developed and, under a certain condition, the estimator can be relaxed into a tractable convex optimization problem. Further, we extend this analysis to systems in presence of measurement noises, and it is shown that the prior information reduces the state-estimation error caused by the noise. Here, the numerical simulations in a diffusion process finally illustrate the reinforcement and error-reduction results with the information.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Online Joint Optimization–Estimation Architecture for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose an optimal joint optimization-estimation architecture for distribution networks, which jointly solves the optimal power flow (OPF) problem and static state estimation (SE) problem through an online gradient-based feedback algorithm. The main objective is to enable a fast and timely interaction between the OPF decisions and state estimators with limited sensor measurements. First, convergence and optimality of the proposed algorithm are analytically established. Then, the proposed gradient-based algorithm is modified by introducing statistical information of the inherent estimation and linearization errors for an improved and robust performance of the online OPF decisions. Overall, the proposed method eliminates the traditional separation of operation and monitoring, where optimization and estimation usually operate at distinct layers and different time scales. Hence, it enables a computationally affordable, efficient, and robust online operational framework for distribution networks under time-varying settings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Adaptive Bayesian Parameter Estimation of a Synchronous Generator Under Gross Errors

Polynomial-chaos-expansion-based surrogate models have recently been advocated in the literature for power system dynamic parameter estimation. Regarding the estimation of the uncertain generator parameters, a Bayesian inference framework has been proposed based on a polynomial-based reduced-order representation of the synchronous machines using assumed parameter values. Then, the non-Gaussian posterior probability distribution functions (pdfs) of these parameters are recovered through the stochastic sampling approach efficiently. However, facing very large parameter errors, the reliability of the surrogate model decreases, yielding biased estimation results. To overcome this problem, here we develop hierarchical Bayesian inference framework that processes the measurements provided by phasor measurement units, while making use of multifidelity surrogates together with the importance sampling method. The latter allows us to estimate in an efficient manner the posterior pdfs of the uncertain parameters through the normalized weights of the prior samples. To improve the accuracy of the posterior pdfs, an adaptive procedure is further adopted in the importance sampling for the gradual evolution of its proposal functions. The new proposals assist in fine-tuning the sample space and thereby help to construct surrogates with higher fidelity. Through an iterative process, this approach is able to estimate accurately and efficiently non-Gaussian posterior pdfs of the uncertain generator parameters subject to gross errors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic State Estimation for Multi-Machine Power System by Unscented Kalman Filter With Enhanced Numerical Stability

In this paper, in order to enhance the numerical stability of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) used for power system dynamic state estimation, a new UKF with guaranteed positive semidifinite estimation error covariance (UKFGPS) is proposed and compared with five existing approaches, including UKFschol, UKF-kappa, UKFmodified, UKF-Delta Q, and the squareroot UKF (SRUKF). These methods and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are tested by performing dynamic state estimation on WSCC 3-machine 9-bus system and NPCC 48-machine 140-bus system. For WSCC system, all methods obtain good estimates. However, for NPCC system, both EKF and the classic UKF fail. It is found that UKFschol, UKF-kappa, and UKF-Delta Q do not work well in some estimations while UKFGPS works well in most cases. UKFmodified and SRUKF can always work well, indicating their better scalability mainly due to the enhanced numerical stability.

dynamic state estimation↗

Transmission estimation at the quantum Cramér-Rao bound with macroscopic quantum light

The field of quantum metrology seeks to apply quantum techniques and/or resources to classical sensing approaches with the goal of enhancing the precision in the estimation of a parameter beyond what can be achieved with classical resources. Theoretically, the fundamental minimum uncertainty in the estimation of a parameter for a given probing state is bounded by the quantum Cramér-Rao bound. From a practical perspective, it is necessary to find physical measurements that can saturate this fundamental limit and to show experimentally that it is possible to perform measurements with the required precision to do so. Here we perform experiments that saturate the quantum Cramér-Rao bound for transmission estimation over a wide range of transmissions when probing the system under study with a continuous wave bright two-mode squeezed state. To properly take into account the imperfections in the generation of the quantum state, we extend our previous theoretical results to incorporate the measured properties of the generated quantum state. For our largest transmission level of 84%, we show a 62% reduction over the optimal classical protocol in the variance in transmission estimation when probing with a bright two-mode squeezed state with -8 dB of intensity-difference squeezing. Given that transmission estimation is an integral part of many sensing protocols, such as plasmonic sensing, spectroscopy, calibration of the quantum efficiency of detectors, etc., the results presented promise to have a significant impact on a number of applications in various fields of research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Estimation of the Ambient Wind Field From Wind Turbine Measurements Using Gaussian Process Regression

In the search for a lower levelized cost of wind energy, one approach is to increase the accuracy of wind turbine measurements such as wind speed and wind direction. The sensors available on wind turbines are susceptible to local turbulence and measurement bias, which can result in suboptimal turbine performance. As an alternative, recent research has considered using the sensor measurements in a coordinated manner. With such a cooperative approach, the local wind conditions can be estimated more accurately and reliably without the need for additional measurement equipment. In this paper, a novel wind field estimation approach is presented that estimates the local wind conditions based on turbine measurements using Gaussian processes. We show that the estimation framework is able to improve the accuracy of the wind direction estimate both in an offline and online manner, as well as identify possible biases in the sensors and reduce unnecessary wind turbine yaw activity.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Covariance operator estimation: Sparsity, lengthscale, and ensemble Kalman filters

This paper investigates covariance operator estimation via thresholding. For Gaussian random fields with approximately sparse covariance operators, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of the field. We prove that thresholded estimators enjoy an exponential improvement in sample complexity compared with the standard sample covariance estimator if the field has a small correlation lengthscale. As an application of the theory, we study thresholded estimation of covariance operators within ensemble Kalman filters.

Covariance operator estimation↗

Estimating Fish Species Richness across Multiple Watersheds

Assessing fish species richness at the scale of an entire watershed or multiple watersheds is important when designing conservation areas and maintaining aquatic biodiversity. Estimating biodiversity at this scale requires considering the effects of habitat heterogeneity within and across drainages on the species-area relationship (SAR). I examined the SAR using unusually complete data to assess fish species richness in minimally disturbed watersheds on large public lands in the Sand Hills ecoregion, southeastern United States of America (USA). My objectives were to compare (1) true richness with estimates produced by different species richness estimators and sampling designs and (2) species richness among reservations. Accurate estimates were obtained for five contiguous watersheds (780 km2 total) by using Chao 2 or first-order jackknife estimators, coupled with (1) a stratified design that apportioned sampling effort over 25 sample sites based on major spatial correlates of assemblage composition, including stream size and drainage basin identity and (2) sufficient sampling effort to collect enough individuals to include rare species. The greatest species richness was in streams within a large land holding characterized by greater instream habitat diversity, less disturbed land coverage, more forested land, and closer proximity to source pools than other reservations. Species richness in these streams was within the range observed in high diversity Neotropical and Indomalayan realms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connecting the Dots: Linking Environmental Justice Indicators to Daily Dose Model Estimates

Many different quantitative techniques have been developed to either assess Environmental Justice (EJ) issues or estimate exposure and dose for risk assessment. However, very few approaches have been applied to link EJ factors to exposure dose estimate and identify potential impacts of EJ factors on dose-related variables. The purpose of this study is to identify quantitative approaches that incorporate conventional risk assessment (RA) dose modeling and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) considerations of disproportionate environmental exposure. We apply the Average Daily Dose (ADD) model, which has been commonly used in RA, to better understand impacts of EJ indicators upon exposure dose estimates and dose-related variables, termed the Environmental-Justice-Average-Daily-Dose (EJ-ADD) approach. On the U.S. nationwide census tract-level, we defined and quantified two EJ indicators (poverty and race/ethnicity) using an EJ scoring method to examine their relation to census tract-level multi-chemical exposure dose estimates. Pollutant doses for each tract were calculated using the ADD model, and EJ scores were assigned to each tract based on poverty- or race-related population percentages. Single- and multiple-chemical ADD values were matched to the tract-level EJ scores to analyze disproportionate dose relationships and contributing EJ factors. We found that when both EJ indicators were examined simultaneously, ADD for all pollutants generally increased with larger EJ scores. To demonstrate the utility of using EJ-ADD on the local scale, we approximated ADD levels of lead via soil/dust ingestion for simulated communities with different EJ-related scenarios. The local-level simulation indicates a substantial difference in exposure-dose levels between wealthy and EJ communities. The application of the EJ-ADD approach can link EJ factors to exposure dose estimate and identify potential EJ impacts on dose-related variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Eco-PiNN: A Physics-informed Neural Network for Eco-toll Estimation

The eco-toll estimation problem quantifies the expected environmental cost (e.g., energy consumption, exhaust emissions) for a vehicle to travel along a path. This problem is important for societal applications such as eco-routing, which aims to find paths with the lowest exhaust emissions or energy need. The challenges of this problem are threefold: (1) the dependence of a vehicle's eco-toll on its physical parameters; (2) the lack of access to data with eco-toll information; and (3) the influence of contextual information (i.e. the connections of adjacent segments in the path) on the eco-toll of road segments. Prior work on eco-toll estimation has mostly relied on pure data-driven approaches and has high estimation errors given the limited training data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Eco-toll estimation Physics-informed Neural Network framework (Eco-PiNN) using three novel ideas, namely, (1) a physics-informed decoder that integrates the physical laws governing vehicle dynamics into the network, (2) an attention-based contextual information encoder, and (3) a physics-informed regularization to reduce overfitting. Experiments on real-world heavy-duty truck data show that the proposed method can greatly improve the accuracy of eco-toll estimation compared with state-of-the-art methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗

Model Evaluation of Methods for Estimating Surface Emissions and Chemical Lifetimes from Satellite Data

Column densities from satellite retrievals can provide valuable information for estimating emissions and chemical lifetimes objectively across the globe. To better understand the uncertainties associated with these estimates, we test four methods using simulated column densities from a point source: a box model approach, a 2D Gaussian fit, an Inverse Radius fit and an Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit. The model results were simulated using the WRF and CAMx models for the year 2005, for a single point source outside Atlanta in Georgia, USA with specified emissions and three chemical scenarios: no chemical reactions, 12 h chemical lifetime and 1 h chemical lifetime. No other sources were included in the simulations. We find that the box model provides reliable estimates irrespective of plume speed and plume direction, if the plume speed and the chemical lifetime are known accurately. The 2D Gaussian fit was found to be sensitive to plume speed and direction, and requires omnidirectional dispersion in order to have a decent fit. However, the 2D Gaussian fit is only an approximate fit to the data, and the discrepancies mean that the results are dependent on the geographical domain used for the optimization. An Inverse Radius fit is introduced to correct this issue, which is found to provide improved emissions and lifetime estimates. The Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit also gave improved estimates. It is however dependent on accurate plume rotation such that reported chemical lifetimes with this method could be significantly underestimated.

Emission inventory↗

Testing Different Methods for Estimating Uncertainties on Rietveld Refined Parameters Using SrRietveld

The advent of fast computing allows more computationally expensive, though possibly more accurate, approaches for estimating uncertainties on Rietveld refined parameters. Here we compare three such methods, using two different refinement programs, FullProf and GSAS. This is facilitated by the use of a new Rietveld refinement package, SrRietveld, that provides Python wrappers for FullProf and GSAS. The refined values on the parameters from two different refinement engines match each other very well. The uncertainty estimates determined using the different methods are also consistent, though FullProf and GSAS estimate the parameter uncertainties slightly differently from each other, which is discussed. More importantly, we find that the refined results are very sensitive to the statistical weights used in the least squares equation. Different weights, for example from uncertain or incorrectly propagated random errors on the data, lead to significantly different refined values. This means that uncertainty estimates on refined parameters should be increased when the random errors on the data are not well known, as for example in many cases where area detectors are used, and care should be taken to propagate errors correctly in any data preprocessing such as normalization by a smoothed spectrum. The computationally expensive bootstrap error estimation methods are facilitated by the use of SrRietveld, but are not required in most cases though may be useful in some cases, for example if the random errors on the data are not well known.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

age estimation↗

Further Investigation of Employing Binomial Small-Sample Estimator in M-LROM

Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) is essential to enable the identification of the so-called active parameter subspace for high-fidelity models that are employed in computationally intensive analyses such as uncertainty characterization and data assimilation. Given the complexity of models for real-world application, brute force methods to identify the active subspace may not be computationally efficient to realize the value of reduction, since in realistic problems, the full scale model must be executed few hundred times, which may be computationally taxing. Earlier work has introduced a new approach, which represents a further development of our previous work on ROM, referred to as multi-level ROM (M-LROM). In M-LROM, approximate models are employed to identify the active subspace instead of the full scale model. In this summary, we present our recent results on M-LROM, specifically in regard to the construction of reliable error metrics that can bound the errors resulting from the reduction. The idea is to employ a lower fidelity model, i.e., an approximation of the full scale or high fidelity model, to build the active subspace, and via the proposed error bound, the quality of the active subspace can be determined by calculating an upper bound on the errors resulting from the reduction. For this approach to be practical, the error bound must be realistic, implying that it should be close to the actual errors expected, and not much higher. Therefore, an important goal of this summary is to compare different error bounds in terms of the relation between their estimated bounds to the actual errors. In particular, we compare the proposed error bound which numerically construct an estimator using binomial distribution to the widely used small-sample norm estimators. Unlike most probabilistic error estimation methods, the proposed bound employs a binomial distribution to construct the estimator whereas in other conventional methods, the distribution employed is typically the standard Gaussian, normalized over a unit hypersphere as initially proposed by the seminal paper of J. Dixon on random matrix theory. Previous publications provided evidence that the binomial distribution calculates more realistic bounds as compared to the Gaussian distribution, which tends to be conservative, implying that the bound is much bigger than the actual errors, which diminishes the value of the reduction, as now must increase the size of the active subspace to reach the desired upper bound on the reduction errors. This work has provided a rigorous approach by which error bounds on the reduction errors can be established without having to execute the high fidelity model during the construction of the active subspace. The high fidelity model is only need to test the error bound using small number of executions. This methodology paves the way for a more efficient application of ROM to complex engineering models, where standard ROM techniques may be too taxing to optimally realize their value in practical situations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗