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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Ground-Recorded Sonic Boom Signatures of F-18 Aircraft in Formation Flight

Two F-18 aircraft were flown, one above the other, in two formations, in order for the shock systems of the two aircraft to merge and propagate to the ground. The first formation had the canopy of the lower F-18 in the tail shock of the upper F-18 (called tail-canopy). The second formation had the canopy of the lower F- 18 in the inlet shock of the upper F-18 (called inlet-canopy). The flight conditions were Mach 1.22 and an altitude of 23,500 ft . An array of five sonic boom recorders was used on the ground to record the sonic boom signatures. This paper describes the flight test technique and the ground level sonic boom signatures. The tail-canopy formation resulted in two, separated, N-wave signatures. Such signatures probably resulted from aircraft positioning error. The inlet-canopy formation yielded a single modified signature; two recorders measured an approximate flattop signature. Loudness calculations indicated that the single inlet-canopy signatures were quieter than the two, separated tail-canopy signatures. Significant loudness occurs after a sonic boom signature. Such loudness probably comes from the aircraft engines.

Bahm, Catherine M.↗

Mobile Propagation Results from Using the ACTS Mobile Terminal

NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) provides an ideal spaced-based platform for analyzing the Ka-band mobile satellite channel. This paper reports on the results of the Ka-band mobile propagation analysis campaign using the ACTS Mobile Terminal (AMT) developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The objectives of the mobile propagation experiments were to measure and analyze the fading characteristics of the Ka-band channel. The analysis involved examining pilot tone tests in three environments: lightly shadowed suburban, moderately shadowed suburban, and heavily shadowed suburban. The results indicate that Ka-band pilot tones experience significant multipath and fading effects. It may be possible to design link margins to provide reliable service for the lightly shadowed suburban environment at Ka-band. However, for areas with moderate and heavy shadowing, the link margin required to realize reliable communications with 99% availability is excessive (26 dB for moderate shadowing, and greater then 30 dB for heavy shadowing). An alternate approach would be to use shadowing/fading countermeasures (e.g., interleaved error control coding and antenna diversity). Such mitigation techniques, necessary for reliable Ka-band mobile communication within a suburban environment, are currently being considered within the NASA program.

Pinck, Deborah↗

Inversion-based correction of Double-Torsion (DT) subcritical crack growth tests for crack profile geometry

Because of its simplicity and the ability to produce a stable, slow-propagating crack, the Double-Torsion (DT) method has been used widely for investigating the critical and subcritical propagation of a slow-propagating tensile (mode-I) crack. However, to determine the complex relationship between the crack velocity $\mathcal{v_c}$ vs. the strain energy release rate $\mathscr{G}$ (or the stress intensity factor K) from laboratory measurements, several corrections must be made to account for the impact of sample and crack geometry. Particularly, DT test typically produces a crack with a curved edge profile instead of a straight line, causing the local $\mathcal{v_c}$ and $\mathscr{G}$ vary along the crack front. The experimentally measured $\mathcal{v_c}$ and $\mathscr{G}$ data merely reflect collective, averaged behavior of the crack. This makes inversion for the intrinsic, “true” crack growth kinetics necessary, based upon the knowledge of the crack geometry. Simple and effective correction methods have been proposed and validated for the slow, chemical-reaction-controlled part (Region I) of the $\mathcal{v_c}$-$\mathscr{G}$ curve. However, reliable methods for the highly nonlinear, transport-dominated part (Region II) and its sudden transition to the dynamic propagation part (Region III) are still lacking. Here we propose a method for determining the intrinsic $\mathcal{v_c}$-$\mathscr{G}$ relationship across all three Regions based upon DT test data, using a simple model function and its numerical inversion. The performance of this approach is examined and demonstrated using both synthetic and laboratory data for subcritical crack growth in soda lime glass.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2002

The contents include: 1) Application Briefs; 2) Sneak Preview of Sensors Expo; 3) The Complexity of the Diagnosis Problem; 4) Design Concepts for the ISS TransHab Module; 5) Characteristics of Supercritical Transitional Mixing Layers; 6) Electrometer for Triboelectric Evaluation of Materials; 7) Infrared CO2 Sensor With Built-In Calibration Chambers; 8) Solid-State Potentiometric CO Sensor; 9) Planetary Rover Absolute Heading Detection Using a Sun Sensor; 10) Concept for Utilizing Full Areas of STJ Photodetector Arrays; 11) Development of Cognitive Sensors; 12) Enabling Higher-Voltage Operation of SOl CMOS Transistors; 13) Estimating Antenna-Pointing Errors From Beam Squints; 14) Advanced-Fatigue-Crack-Growth and Fracture- Mechanics Program; 15) Software for Sequencing Spacecraft Actions; 16) Program Distributes and Tracks Organizational Memoranda; 16) Flat Membrane Device for Dehumidification of Air; 17) Inverted Hindle Mount Reduces Sag of a Large, Precise Mirror; 18) Heart-Pump-Outlet/Cannula Coupling; 19) Externally Triggered Microcapsules Release Drugs In Situ; 20) Combinatorial Drug Design Augmented by Information Theory; 21) Multiple-Path-Length Optical Absorbance Cell; 22) Model of a Fluidized Bed Containing a Mixture of Particles; 23) Refractive Secondary Concentrators for Solar Thermal Systems; 24) Cold Flow Calorimeter; 25) Methodology for Tracking Hazards and Predicting Failures; 26) Estimating Heterodyne-Interferometer Polarization Leakage; 27) An Efficient Algorithm for Propagation of Temporal- Constraint Networks; 28) Software for Continuous Replanning During Execution; 29) Surface-Launched Explorers for Reconnaissance/Scouting; 30) Firmware for a Small Motion-Control Processor; 31) Gear Bearings and Gear-Bearing Transmissions; and 32) Linear Dynamometer With Variable Stroke and Frequency.

Source record↗

Adaptive laser link reconfiguration using constraint propagation

This paper describes Harris AI research performed on the Adaptive Link Reconfiguration (ALR) study for Rome Lab, and focuses on the application of constraint propagation to the problem of link reconfiguration for the proposed space based Strategic Defense System (SDS) Brilliant Pebbles (BP) communications system. According to the concept of operations at the time of the study, laser communications will exist between BP's and to ground entry points. Long-term links typical of RF transmission will not exist. This study addressed an initial implementation of BP's based on the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) SDI mission. The number of satellites and rings studied was representative of this problem. An orbital dynamics program was used to generate line-of-site data for the modeled architecture. This was input into a discrete event simulation implemented in the Harris developed COnstraint Propagation Expert System (COPES) Shell, developed initially on the Rome Lab BM/C3 study. Using a model of the network and several heuristics, the COPES shell was used to develop the Heuristic Adaptive Link Ordering (HALO) Algorithm to rank and order potential laser links according to probability of communication. A reduced set of links based on this ranking would then be used by a routing algorithm to select the next hop. This paper includes an overview of Constraint Propagation as an Artificial Intelligence technique and its embodiment in the COPES shell. It describes the design and implementation of both the simulation of the GPALS BP network and the HALO algorithm in COPES. This is described using a 59 Data Flow Diagram, State Transition Diagrams, and Structured English PDL. It describes a laser communications model and the heuristics involved in rank-ordering the potential communication links. The generation of simulation data is described along with its interface via COPES to the Harris developed View Net graphical tool for visual analysis of communications networks. Conclusions are presented, including a graphical analysis of results depicting the ordered set of links versus the set of all possible links based on the computed Bit Error Rate (BER). Finally, future research is discussed which includes enhancements to the HALO algorithm, network simulation, and the addition of an intelligent routing algorithm for BP.

Crone, M. S.↗

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) Digital Twin Simulation of Photovoltaic Systems for Fault Detection and Location

Utilizing spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) to detect, locate, and characterize faults in photovoltaic (PV) systems is examined in this paper. We present a method to obtain the model parameters that are needed to produce digital twin SSTDR responses for PV systems. The digital twin SSTDR responses could be used to predict faults within the PV systems. Here, the model parameters are the reflection and transmission coefficients at each impedance discontinuity in the PV system along with the propagation coefficients across each PV cable segment. We obtain model parameter by applying inverse modeling techniques to experimental SSTDR data associated with PV systems. Our model parameters can be used in any digital twin simulation method for modeling reflectometry in frequency-dependent and complex loads. For validation, we used the model parameters in a graph network simulation engine and adapted it to be used for SSTDR digital twin simulations in PV systems. We produced simulations for 0 to 10 PV modules connected in series. We also simulated SSTDR responses for open circuit disconnections in a PV setup containing 10 PV modules in series. Results show that all but one simulated disconnect locations match experimental disconnection locations of the same setup with an error of less than 5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Current Limitations on VLBI Accuracy

The contribution of VLBI to geophysics and geodesy arises from its ability to measure distances between stations in a network and to determine the orientation of stations in the network as well as the orientation of the network with respect to the external reference frame of extragalactic radio objects. Integrating nearly two decades of observations provides useful information about station positions and velocities and the orientation of the Earth, but the complications of the real world and the limitations of observing, modeling and analysis prevent recovery of all effects. Of the factors that limit the accuracy of seemingly straightforward geodetic parameters, the neutral propagation medium has been subject to the greatest scrutiny, but the treatment of the mapping function, the wet component and spatial/temporal inhomogeneities is still improving. These affect both the terrestrial scale and consistency over time. The modeling of non-secular site motions (tides and loading) has increased in sophistication, but there are some differences between the models and the observations. VLBI antennas are massive objects, so their behavior is quite unlike GPS monuments, but antenna deformations add some (generally) unmodeled signal. Radio sources used in geodetic VLBI observations are selected for strength and (relative) absence of structure, but apparent changes in position can leak into geodetic parameters. A linear rate of change of baseline or site parameters is the simplest model and its error improves with time span. However, in most cases the VLBI data distribution is insufficient to look for real non-linear behavior that might affect the average rate. A few sites have multiple VLBI antennas, and some show small differences in rate. VLBI intrinsically measures relative positions and velocities, but individual site positions and velocities are generally more useful. The creation of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame, which transforms relative information into individual results, is an empirical process that has intrinsic errors. While UT1 is uniquely measured by VLBI, the geographical distribution and availability of VLBI stations, especially in the southern hemisphere, and the consistency of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame may limit the accuracy of Earth orientation measurements. The effects of particular error sources on geodetic and geophysical parameters derived from VLBI data will be illustrated.

Ma, Chopo↗

Ray propagation in oblate atmospheres

Phinney and Anderson's (1968) exact theory for the inversion of radio-occultation data for planetary atmospheres breaks down seriously when applied to occultations by oblate atmospheres because of departures from Bouguer's law. It has been proposed that this breakdown can be overcome by transforming the theory to a local spherical symmetry which osculates a ray's point of closest approach. The accuracy of this transformation procedure is assessed by evaluating the size of terms which are intrinsic to an oblate atmosphere and which are not eliminated by a local spherical approximation. The departures from Bouguer's law are analyzed, and it is shown that in the lowest-order deviation from that law, the plane of refraction is defined by the normal to the atmosphere at closest approach. In the next order, it is found that the oblateness of the atmosphere 'warps' the ray path out of a single plane, but the effect appears to be negligible for most purposes. It is concluded that there seems to be no source of serious error in making an approximation of local spherical symmetry with the refraction plane defined by the normal at closest approach.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis of a Reference Pressure Measurement System for Wind Tunnels

This paper presents the calibration results and uncertainty analysis of a high-precision reference pressure measurement system currently used in wind tunnels at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Sensors, calibration standards, and measurement instruments are subject to errors due to aging, drift with time, environment effects, transportation, the mathematical model, the calibration experimental design, and other factors. Errors occur at every link in the chain of measurements and data reduction from the sensor to the final computed results. At each link of the chain, bias and precision uncertainties must be separately estimated for facility use, and are combined to produce overall calibration and prediction confidence intervals for the instrument, typically at a 95% confidence level. The uncertainty analysis and calibration experimental designs used herein, based on techniques developed at LaRC, employ replicated experimental designs for efficiency, separate estimation of bias and precision uncertainties, and detection of significant parameter drift with time. Final results, including calibration confidence intervals and prediction intervals given as functions of the applied inputs, not as a fixed percentage of the full-scale value are presented. System uncertainties are propagated beginning with the initial reference pressure standard, to the calibrated instrument as a working standard in the facility. Among the several parameters that can affect the overall results are operating temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and facility vibration. Effects of factors such as initial zeroing and temperature are investigated. The effects of the identified parameters on system performance and accuracy are discussed.

Amer, Tahani↗

Direct Measurement of the Nickel Spectrum in Cosmic Rays in the Energy Range from 8.8 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ to 240 GeV/$\mathcal{n}$ with CALET on the International Space Station

The relative abundance of cosmic ray nickel nuclei with respect to iron is by far larger than for all other transiron elements; therefore it provides a favorable opportunity for a low background measurement of its spectrum. Since nickel, as well as iron, is one of the most stable nuclei, the nickel energy spectrum and its relative abundance with respect to iron provide important information to estimate the abundances at the cosmic ray source and to model the Galactic propagation of heavy nuclei. However, only a few direct measurements of cosmic-ray nickel at energy larger than ~ 3 GeV/n are available at present in the literature, and they are affected by strong limitations in both energy reach and statistics. In this Letter, we present a measurement of the differential energy spectrum of nickel in the energy range from 8.8 to 240 GeV/n , carried out with unprecedented precision by the Calorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) in operation on the International Space Station since 2015. The CALET instrument can identify individual nuclear species via a measurement of their electric charge with a dynamic range extending far beyond iron (up to atomic number Z = 40 ). The particle’s energy is measured by a homogeneous calorimeter (1.2 proton interaction lengths, 27 radiation lengths) preceded by a thin imaging section (3 radiation lengths) providing tracking and energy sampling. This Letter follows our previous measurement of the iron spectrum [O. Adriani et al. (CALET Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 241101 (2021).], and it extends our investigation on the energy dependence of the spectral index of heavy elements. It reports the analysis of nickel data collected from November 2015 to May 2021 and a detailed assessment of the systematic uncertainties. In the region from 20 to 240 GeV/n our present data are compatible within the errors with a single power law with spectral index -2.51 ± 0.07 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reduced order models for Lagrangian hydrodynamics

It is reported, as a mathematical model of high-speed flow and shock wave propagation in a complex multimaterial setting, Lagrangian hydrodynamics is characterized by moving meshes, advection-dominated solutions, and moving shock fronts with sharp gradients. These challenges hinder the existing projection-based model reduction schemes from being practical. We develop several variations of projection-based reduced order model techniques for Lagrangian hydrodynamics by introducing three different reduced bases for position, velocity, and energy fields. A time-windowing approach is also developed to address the challenge imposed by the advection-dominated solutions. Lagrangian hydrodynamics is formulated as a nonlinear problem, which requires a proper hyper-reduction technique. Therefore, we apply the over-sampling DEIM and SNS approaches to reduce the complexity due to the nonlinear terms. Finally, we also present both a posteriori and a priori error bounds associated with our reduced order model. We compare the performance of the spatial and time-windowing reduced order modeling approaches in terms of accuracy and speed-up with respect to the corresponding full order model for several numerical examples, namely Sedov blast, Gresho vortices, Taylor-Green vortices, and triple-point problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Linear Bicharacteristic Scheme for Electromagnetics

The upwind leapfrog or Linear Bicharacteristic Scheme (LBS) has previously been implemented and demonstrated on electromagnetic wave propagation problems. This paper extends the Linear Bicharacteristic Scheme for computational electromagnetics to model lossy dielectric and magnetic materials and perfect electrical conductors. This is accomplished by proper implementation of the LBS for homogeneous lossy dielectric and magnetic media and for perfect electrical conductors. Heterogeneous media are modeled through implementation of surface boundary conditions and no special extrapolations or interpolations at dielectric material boundaries are required. Results are presented for one-dimensional model problems on both uniform and nonuniform grids, and the FDTD algorithm is chosen as a convenient reference algorithm for comparison. The results demonstrate that the explicit LBS is a dissipation-free, second-order accurate algorithm which uses a smaller stencil than the FDTD algorithm, yet it has approximately one-third the phase velocity error. The LBS is also more accurate on nonuniform grids.

Beggs, John H.↗

Geometry and entanglement in the scattering matrix

A formulation of nucleon–nucleon scattering is developed in which the S-matrix, rather than an effective-field theory (EFT) action, is the fundamental object. Spacetime plays no role in this description: the S-matrix is a trajectory that moves between RG fixed points in a compact theory space defined by unitarity. This theory space has a natural operator definition, and a geometric embedding of the unitarity constraints in four-dimensional Euclidean space yields a flat torus, which serves as the stage on which the S-matrix propagates. Trajectories with vanishing entanglement are special geodesics between RG fixed points on the flat torus, while entanglement is driven by an external potential. The system of equations describing S-matrix trajectories is in general complicated, however the very-low-energy S-matrix –that appears at leading-order in the EFT description– possesses a UV/IR conformal invariance which renders the system of equations integrable, and completely determines the potential. In this geometric viewpoint, inelasticity is in correspondence with the radius of a three-dimensional hyperbolic space whose two-dimensional boundary is the flat torus. This space has a singularity at vanishing radius, corresponding to maximal violation of unitarity. The trajectory on the flat torus boundary can be explicitly constructed from a bulk trajectory with a quantifiable error, providing a simple example of a holographic quantum error correcting code.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Electron shelving of a superconducting artificial atom

Interfacing long-lived qubits with propagating photons is a fundamental challenge in quantum technology. Cavity and circuit quantum electrodynamics (cQED) architectures rely on an off-resonant cavity, which blocks the qubit emission and enables a quantum non-demolition (QND) dispersive readout. However, no such buffer mode is necessary for controlling a large class of three-level systems that combine a metastable qubit transition with a bright cycling transition, using the electron shelving effect. Here we demonstrate shelving of a circuit atom, fluxonium, placed inside a microwave waveguide. With no cavity modes in the setup, the qubit coherence time exceeds 50 μs, and the cycling transition’s radiative lifetime is under 100 ns. By detecting a homodyne fluorescence signal from the cycling transition, we implement a QND readout of the qubit and account for readout errors using a minimal optical pumping model. Our result establishes a resource-efficient (cavityless) alternative to cQED for controlling superconducting qubits.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

A dynamic solvent chamber propagation estimation framework using RNN for warm solvent injection in heterogeneous reservoirs

Warm solvent injection (WSI), injecting low-temperature solvent into formations to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, is a clean technology for heavy oil production through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage. The success of WSI operation depends on the uniform development and propagation of solvent chambers in reservoirs. However, reservoir heterogeneity stemming from shale barriers plays a detrimental role in the conformance of solvent chamber development and oil production rate. In this work, we developed a novel recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework with the capability of efficiently tracking and estimating the solvent chamber positions in heterogeneous reservoirs based on only production time-series data. The developed estimation model utilizes the “sequence-to-sequence" mapping methodology to correlate observed production time-series sequence and solvent chamber edge sequence via a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The trained RNN models exhibit high accuracy, evidenced by the predicted dynamic solvent chamber locations match the corresponding true locations from numerical simulation, with a high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and a low mean squared error. Specifically, the achieved R 2 values exceed 0.98 on both the training and testing data. The developed RNN-based workflow was tested via several cases from both regularly- and irregularly-shaped shale barriers, and the results were promising. The predicted solvent chambers showed strong agreement with those obtained from numerical simulations. The major benefits of this workflow include reducing computational time and saving overall monitoring and tracking costs for conventional techniques. In conclusion, the present work would provide a good demonstration of the capability of practical integration of machine learning methods in solving engineering problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stream Temperature Prediction in a Shifting Environment: Explaining the Influence of Deep Learning Architecture

Stream temperature is a fundamental control on ecosystem health. Recent efforts incorporating process guidance into deep learning models for predicting stream temperature have been shown to outperform existing statistical and physical models. This performance is in part because deep learning architectures can actively learn spatiotemporal relationships that govern how water and energy propagate through a river network. However, exploration of how spatiotemporal awareness and process guidance influence a model's generalizability under shifting environmental conditions such as climate change is limited. Here, we use Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to interrogate how differing deep learning architectures affect a model's learned spatial and temporal dependencies, and how those learned dependencies affect a model's ability to maintain high accuracy when applied to unseen environmental conditions. Using the Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States as a test case, we compare two spatiotemporally aware process–guided deep learning models for predicting stream temperature (a recurrent graph convolution network—RGCN, and a temporal convolution graph model—Graph WaveNet). Both models achieve equally high predictive performance when testing data are well represented in the training data (test root mean squared errors of 1.64°C and 1.65°C); however, Graph WaveNet significantly outperforms RGCN in 4 out of 5 experiments where test partitions represent different types of unseen environmental conditions. XAI results show that the architecture of Graph WaveNet leads to learned spatial relationships with greater fidelity to physical processes, and that this fidelity improves the generalizability of the model when applied to shifting and/or unseen environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗