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MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers Experiment Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Error Analysis

Atomic oxygen erosion of polymers in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses a serious threat to spacecraft performance and durability. To address this, 40 different polymer samples and a sample of pyrolytic graphite, collectively called the PEACE (Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment) Polymers, were exposed to the LEO space environment on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS) for nearly 4 years as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 1 & 2 (MISSE 1 & 2). The purpose of the PEACE Polymers experiment was to obtain accurate mass loss measurements in space to combine with ground measurements in order to accurately calculate the atomic oxygen erosion yields of a wide variety of polymeric materials exposed to the LEO space environment for a long period of time. Error calculations were performed in order to determine the accuracy of the mass measurements and therefore of the erosion yield values. The standard deviation, or error, of each factor was incorporated into the fractional uncertainty of the erosion yield for each of three different situations, depending on the post-flight weighing procedure. The resulting error calculations showed the erosion yield values to be very accurate, with an average error of 3.30 percent.

McCarthy, Catherine E.↗

Mountain-Top-to-Mountain-Top Optical Link Demonstration

A mountain-top-to-mountain-top optical communications demonstration was conducted between the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and Strawberry Peak (SP), Lake Arrowhead, California, during the months of August and September of 2000. The link was nearly horizontal at an altitude of 2 km and spanned a range of 46.8 km. A 780-nm multibeam beacon broadcast from TMF was received by the JPL Optical Communications Demonstrator (OCD) located at SP. The received beacon was utilized as a pointing reference to retransmit an 852-nm communications laser beam, modulated at 400 Mb/s by a PN7 pseudo-random bit stream (PRBS) sequence. The long atmospheric path resulted in atmospheric-turbulence-induced angle-of-arrival fluctuations of the beacon at the OCD aperture. A .ne-steering control loop was used to track the resulting beacon centroid motion and update the pointing of the communications laser beam transmitted from SP to TMF. Fried parameters, or r0, inferred from focal spot sizes received at SP were 4 to 5 cm whereas, using the spot sizes received at TMF, they were 2 to 3 cm. In both cases, theory predicts larger r0 values. The predicted angle-of-arrival fluctuations compare well with measured rms displacements exhibited by the focal spots at either end of the link. An uncompensated error of ~1.1 rad in the x-axis and ~2 rad in the y-axis was obtained using centroid data logged by the OCD. Average bit-error rates of 10-5 were recorded for extended periods of time. An atmospheric coherence length r0 of 3 to 5 cm was inferred using the focal-plane spot size measured on the CCD tracking sensor and compared to a predicted value of 5 to 7 cm using reasonable atmospheric models. The irradiance bounds required for the CCD tracking sensor to perform centroiding was found to range from 2000 to 3000 integrated pixel counts, although a more reliable range was 600 to 3000, indicating a dynamic range of 6 to 11 dB. The motion of the spot on the focal plane was also recorded and yielded rms angle-of-arrival-induced focal-plane displacement of 9 to 11 m, compared to a predicted value of 7.8 to 11 m. The irradiance measurements made with the OCD clearly indicate that best tracking performance is obtained when the mean received signal is 2000 to 2200 counts. The best tracking performance resulted in an rms uncompensated error of 1.1 rad. The uncompensated error appeared to increase with either an increase or decrease in mean beacon-signal level. The rms uncompensated error determined by deriving the beacon displacement power spectral density from the beacon centroid-versustime data and the rejection function of the control loop yielded a higher value of 3.4 rad.

Biswas, A.↗

Time-Critical Coordination of UAS with Non-Ideal Autopilots under Lossy Communication Networks

In this presentation we will explore several distributed consensus algorithms developed to maintain coordination among a fleet of heterogeneous UAS subject to external disturbances. An overview of the network assumptions and autopilot performance bounds required to meet the coordination objective will be provided. In particular, we will leverage passivity-based stability conditions for bidirectional networks that require the communication graph to be connected in an integral sense, but may fail to connect pointwise in time during the entire mission. Non-ideal autopilots that can only track a desired speed profile with a prescribed precision induce an error in vehicle coordination. The autopilot performance bounds will be propagated through the coordination dynamics to understand the limits introduced by autopilots.

conensus↗

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Analysis and applications of a general boresight algorithm for the DSS-13 beam waveguide antenna

A general antenna beam boresight algorithm is presented. Equations for axial pointing error, peak received signal level, and antenna half-power beamwidth are given. A pointing error variance equation is derived that illustrates the dependence of the measurement estimation performance on the various algorithm inputs, including RF signal level uncertainty. Plots showing pointing error uncertainty as function of algorithm inputs are presented. Insight gained from the performance analysis is discussed in terms of its application to the areas of antenna controller and receiver interfacing, pointing error compensation, and antenna calibrations. Current and planned applications of the boresight algorithm, including its role in the upcoming Ka-band downlink experiment (KABLE), are highlighted.

Alvarez, L. S.↗

Integrated structure electromagnetic optimization of large space antenna reflectors

The requirements for extremely precise and powerful large space antenna reflectors have motivated the development of a procedure for shape control of the reflector surface. A mathematical optimization procedure has been developed which improves antenna performance while minimizing necessary shape correction effort. In contrast to previous work which proposed controlling the rms distortion error of the surface thereby indirectly improving antenna performance, the current work includes electromagnetic (EM) performance calculations as an integral of the control procedure. The application of the procedure to a radiometer design with a tetrahedral truss backup structure demonstrates the potential for significant improvement. The results indicate the benefit of including EM performance calculations in procedures for shape control of large space antenna reflectors.

Padula, Sharon L.↗

Integrated structural electromagnetic optimization of large space antenna reflectors

The requirements for extremely precise and powerful large space antenna reflectors have motivated the development of a procedure for shape control of the reflector surface. A mathematical optimization procedure has been developed which improves antenna performance while minimizing necessary shape correction effort. In contrast to previous work which proposed controlling the rms distortion error of the surface thereby indirectly improving antenna performance, the current work includes electromagnetic (EM) performance calculations as an integral part of the control procedure. The application of the procedure to a radiometer design with a tetrahedral truss backup structure demonstrates the potential for significant improvement. The results indicate the benefit of including EM performance calculations in procedures for shape control of large space antenna reflectors.

Padula, S. L.↗

Sustained attention performance during sleep deprivation: evidence of state instability

Nathaniel Kleitman was the first to observe that sleep deprivation in humans did not eliminate the ability to perform neurobehavioral functions, but it did make it difficult to maintain stable performance for more than a few minutes. To investigate variability in performance as a function of sleep deprivation, n = 13 subjects were tested every 2 hours on a 10-minute, sustained-attention, psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) throughout 88 hours of total sleep deprivation (TSD condition), and compared to a control group of n = 15 subjects who were permitted a 2-hour nap every 12 hours (NAP condition) throughout the 88-hour period. PVT reaction time means and standard deviations increased markedly among subjects and within each individual subject in the TSD condition relative to the NAP condition. TSD subjects also had increasingly greater performance variability as a function of time on task after 18 hours of wakefulness. During sleep deprivation, variability in PVT performance reflected a combination of normal timely responses, errors of omission (i.e., lapses), and errors of commission (i.e., responding when no stimulus was present). Errors of omission and errors of commission were highly intercorrelated across deprivation in the TSD condition (r = 0.85, p = 0.0001), suggesting that performance instability is more likely to include compensatory effort than a lack of motivation. The marked increases in PVT performance variability as sleep loss continued supports the "state instability" hypothesis, which posits that performance during sleep deprivation is increasingly variable due to the influence of sleep initiating mechanisms on the endogenous capacity to maintain attention and alertness, thereby creating an unstable state that fluctuates within seconds and that cannot be characterized as either fully awake or asleep.

Non-NASA Center↗

Design Considerations of Polishing Lap for Computer-Controlled Cylindrical Polishing Process

The future X-ray observatory missions, such as International X-ray Observatory, require grazing incidence replicated optics of extremely large collecting area (3 m2) in combination with angular resolution of less than 5 arcsec half-power diameter. The resolution of a mirror shell depends ultimately on the quality of the cylindrical mandrels from which they are being replicated. Mid-spatial-frequency axial figure error is a dominant contributor in the error budget of the mandrel. This paper presents our efforts to develop a deterministic cylindrical polishing process in order to keep the mid-spatial-frequency axial figure errors to a minimum. Simulation studies have been performed to optimize the operational parameters as well as the polishing lap configuration. Furthermore, depending upon the surface error profile, a model for localized polishing based on dwell time approach is developed. Using the inputs from the mathematical model, a mandrel, having conical approximated Wolter-1 geometry, has been polished on a newly developed computer-controlled cylindrical polishing machine. We report our first experimental results and discuss plans for further improvements in the polishing process.

Khan, Gufran S.↗

Assessing Individual Differences in Adaptation to Extreme Environments: A 36-Hour Sleep Deprivation Study

In space, astronauts may experience effects of cumulative sleep loss due to demanding work schedules that can result in cognitive performance impairments, mood state deteriorations, and sleep-wake cycle disruption. Individuals who experience sleep deprivation of six hours beyond normal sleep times experience detrimental changes in their mood and performance states. Hence, the potential for life threatening errors increases exponentially with sleep deprivation. We explored the effects of 36-hours of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance, mood states, and physiological responses to identify which metrics may best predict fatigue induced performance decrements of individuals.

Martinez, Jacqueline↗

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗

Ground truth data requirements for altimeter performance verification

The amount and type of ground truth required for an altimeter experiment is a function of the uncertainty in the satellite orbit, the altimeter error budget and the type of operation being performed. Ground truth requirements will be discussed with reference to three areas of operation: the global mode, the high intensity mode and calibration.

Walsh, E. J.↗

Human Error Analysis for Human-Rated Space Systems

Humans bring unique capabilities to space systems and contribute to mission success in a manner that cannot be matched by machines. Nevertheless, from time to time, human error can present a threat to system performance, and system designers must anticipate and manage this risk. NASA’s Human-Rating Requirements for Space Systems call for program managers to conduct a human error analysis (HEA) during system development but does not specify how to do this. In 2018, NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center asked the authors to develop a guidance document on HEA. The resulting position paper outlines a suggested method for HEA and makes it clear that error analysis is about identifying and mitigating problems at a system level, and not about finding fault with individuals. Error management strategies must be directed at error-producing conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of human error, while retaining the positive contribution that humans make to system operations.

human error human-rated space↗

Improving Photometry and Stellar Signal Preservation with Pixel-Level Systematic Error Correction

The Kepler Mission has demonstrated that excellent stellar photometric performance can be achieved using apertures constructed from optimally selected CCD pixels. The clever methods used to correct for systematic errors, while very successful, still have some limitations in their ability to extract long-term trends in stellar flux. They also leave poorly correlated bias sources, such as drifting moiré pattern, uncorrected. We will illustrate several approaches where applying systematic error correction algorithms to the pixel time series, rather than the co-added raw flux time series, provide significant advantages. Examples include, spatially localized determination of time varying moiré pattern biases, greater sensitivity to radiation-induced pixel sensitivity drops (SPSDs), improved precision of co-trending basis vectors (CBV), and a means of distinguishing the stellar variability from co-trending terms even when they are correlated. For the last item, the approach enables physical interpretation of appropriately scaled coefficients derived in the fit of pixel time series to the CBV as linear combinations of various spatial derivatives of the pixel response function (PRF). We demonstrate that the residuals of a fit of soderived pixel coefficients to various PRF-related components can be deterministically interpreted in terms of physically meaningful quantities, such as the component of the stellar flux time series which is correlated with the CBV, as well as, relative pixel gain, proper motion and parallax. The approach also enables us to parameterize and assess the limiting factors in the uncertainties in these quantities.

Kolodzijczak, Jeffrey J.↗

Nozomi Cis-Lunar Phase Orbit Determination

Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) launched Nozomi, its first mission to the planet Mars using the newly developed M-V launch vehicle on July 3, 1998. Scientific objectives of the mission are to study the structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. Nozomi is a cooperative mission between ISAS and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA contribution includes navigation and tracking services provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The spacecraft also serves as an engineering demonstration of basic technology for planetary exploration. One of the new technologies was a unique trajectory, developed by ISAS, which used solar gravitational perturbations at the weak stability boundary as an aid to achieve an Earth-Mars transfer orbit. This trajectory saves approximately 120 m/s of Delta V compared to direct hyperbolic insertion and is considered an enabling technology for the mission. Nozomi was the first spacecraft to employ this trajectory and provided on-orbit validation of the technique. The trajectory was achieved by initially placing the spacecraft in a highly elliptical cis-lunar phasing orbit. Six maneuvers were performed during this period to correct injection errors and target an outbound lunar swingby in September 1998. The gravity assist from the lunar swingby raised apogee to the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. After three more targeting maneuvers, Nozomi performed an inbound lunar swingby followed immediately by a powered Earth swingby in late December 1998. A 420 m/s Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn at the final Earth periapsis was intended to place the spacecraft on a heliocentric trajectory leading to Mars orbit insertion in October 1999. Orbit determination for Nozomi is performed in parallel by both ISAS and the Multi-Mission Navigation (MMNAV) group at JPL. This was an advantage for the mission because each group would generate solutions based on data collected from their respective tracking networks. Spacecraft events, such as sequence uplinks and maneuvers, were generally scheduled during passes at the Usuda tracking station in Japan. As a result, maneuver design and reconstruction was derived from MMNAV solutions based on JPL tracking data obtained immediately prior to or following maneuvers. Data was also exchanged between ISAS and MMNAV so orbit determination could be performed on joint data sets in support of critical targeting late in the cis-lunar phase. In this paper, information regarding the MMNAV orbit determination effort for the first six months of the mission is presented. The spacecraft trajectory is characterized first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Results from selected orbit solutions are presented and compared against reconstructed trajectories. One area of emphasis in this paper is orbit determination in the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. Precise navigation was necessary to target the second lunar swingby and the powered Earth swingby. Delivery accuracy of 150 m was required for these critical encounters, but a number of factors contributed to the general degradation of orbit determination accuracy. This included the fact that the spacecraft was at apogee, at a range of 1.7 million km and moving at less than I km/sec perpendicular to the line of sight. Nozomi was also close to zero degrees declination where there are known limitations on orbit determination performance. Finally, S-band tracking data was acquired through the Nozomi backup low gain antenna. This antenna is offset from the axis of this spin stabilized spacecraft and superimposed large signatures in the Doppler and range data. These difficulties were overcome by combining long data arcs, spanning several maneuvers, with a high fidelity solar pressure model. The model included a physically accurate representation of the spacecraft structure and a high time resolution orientation model. Observation modeling included the removal of the spin induced Doppler bias, spin signature and per pass correction of range calibration errors applied for data leading up to critical events. As a result, all orbit determination goals were met. A second area of emphasis in this paper is the JPL tracking and orbit determination effort in support of the TMI maneuver. TMI occurred out of contact with ground stations and the JPL Goldstone tracking complex had the first pass following the bum. As a result, MMNAV had the responsibility to make a rapid assessment of the maneuver performance. MMNAV made the determination that a 100 m/s under bum had occurred and promptly informed ISAS via voice lines. ISAS immediately began preparations for a correction maneuver (TMIc), which had to be performed during the next Usuda pass. The near real time assessment by MMNAV provided accurate antenna frequency and pointing updates for the spacecraft acquisition at Usuda and the close coordination between the two agencies enabled the design and successful execution of the TMc maneuver. Propellant consumption during the correction burn dictated that the mission be redesigned. ISAS developed a new plan which adds 3 full solar orbits, two Earth swingbys and one lunar swingby with arrival at Mars in January 2004. The final Mars orbit will still enable the mission to achieve all of its science objectives.

Ryne, Mark↗

Integrated analysis system for box truss antenna mesh performance

An integrated analysis system has been developed to more efficiently design and analyze the mesh reflective surface and the mesh tie system of the box truss antenna. Six integrated computer programs using nonlinear finite-element, surface topography and interpolation, and RF aperture integration techniques, analyze the effects of manufacturing errors, mesh pillowing, and operating environment on antenna performance. The level of rigor of analysis can be varied, providing the possibility of a lower cost preliminary study on various designs using a minimum number of reduced box section models. By including the random and systematic errors with the aperture integration of minimum rms reflector surface roughness, the RF Performance Solver determines the far-field pattern, including the beam efficiency, and thus the antenna performance of the mesh reflector antenna.

Bachtell, E. E.↗

Acquisition and processing of data for isotope-ratio-monitoring mass spectrometry

Methods are described for continuous monitoring of signals required for precise analyses of 13C, 18O, and 15N in gas streams containing varying quantities of CO2 and N2. The quantitative resolution (i.e. maximum performance in the absence of random errors) of these methods is adequate for determination of isotope ratios with an uncertainty of one part in 10(5); the precision actually obtained is often better than one part in 10(4). This report describes data-processing operations including definition of beginning and ending points of chromatographic peaks and quantitation of background levels, allowance for effects of chromatographic separation of isotopically substituted species, integration of signals related to specific masses, correction for effects of mass discrimination, recognition of drifts in mass spectrometer performance, and calculation of isotopic delta values. Characteristics of a system allowing off-line revision of parameters used in data reduction are described and an algorithm for identification of background levels in complex chromatograms is outlined. Effects of imperfect chromatographic resolution are demonstrated and discussed and an approach to deconvolution of signals from coeluting substances described.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

SCREAM: Space-based Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method

Given both ground-based performance shaping factors (PSFs) collected by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and potential space-based PSFs collected by JSC's HH&P, this year's task is to determine how to combine them for future human reliability analysis (HRA) of space missions. All HRA to date for space missions have been based on ground data (i.e. 1-G environment). There is no space-based HRA approach. The target of this project to produce a "first of its kind" HRA approach for space missions. As humans go beyond Earth orbit and missions become longer, human performance and reliability is expected to degrade. The questions become by how much, when, and what, leading to defining the overall effect on crew risk. Knowing this information earlier rather than later will help us mitigate this risk by vehicle design, crew training, and operational workarounds.

Boyer, Roger L.↗