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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the impacts of Variable Message Signs on Airport Curbside Performance Using Microsimulation

Curbs play a vital role in facilitating vehicle access and egress for individuals at airports. Inefficiently allocating this resource hinders airport accessibility and productivity, resulting in congestion, longer travel times, and increased pollution. As airport demand fluctuates throughout the day and grows over time, airports face intensified curbside pressure. Yet, curb management research is significantly less robust at airports than in urban areas. Given the unbalanced nature of airport demand—riders tend to arrive simultaneously at specific entrances at certain hours—Variable Message Sign (VMS) arises as a cost-effective technology to divert vehicles from congested to underutilized curbs. Still, VMS implementation faces a significant challenge. Historically, airports have managed VMS heuristically and by intuition rather than an evidence-based approach. This research investigates the impacts of implementing VMS on curb performance at airports. By considering different driver compliance rates (DCR), we aim to determine when the sign should be turned on and off to diverge traffic to avoid undesired externalities while enhancing curb performance. Using a validated agent-based microsimulation model, VISSIM, we analyzed the Seattle-Tacoma (SeaTac) Airport as a case study. We modeled sixteen VMS management scenarios and a baseline where the message sign is not displayed, diverging vehicles between the departures and arrivals access levels at four different moments (early morning, morning, afternoon, and late night). We quantified the effects of VMS using seven metrics, including curb productivity index (CPI), curb accessibility (CA), queue length, queue duration, delay, vehicle counts, and emissions. The results of each scenario were compared against the baseline using absolute and relative changes and Repeated Measures ANOVA. Overall, VMS improved curb performance and traffic conditions at the airport, reducing emissions by 14.8% to 8.9%. Moreover, significant reductions in queue length (1,150 ft to 100 ft) and duration (15 to 144 minutes) were observed in the sending link under all VMS policies. However, impacts on the receiving link varied based on congestion, with significant increases in queue duration (9.8 to 24 min) when congested but no substantial changes in free flow. Notably, diverging vehicles to congested links resulted in non-significant results, and activating late and deactivating late VMS affected curb productivity (-5.8% to -61.4%), curb accessibility (-16.5% to -25.8%), cumulative counts (-33.4% to -59.4%), and vehicle delay (95.98% to 594.3%). Activating VMS before congestion begins in the sending link and deactivating before a queue forms in the receiving link yield the most significant improvements: 8.1% to 10.1% in CPI, 9.4% to9.6% in CA, -29.3% to -77.9% in total delay, -11.6% to -13.9% in total emissions, and 101% to 103% in cumulative counts. As the analysis was made with a wide range of time periods, access levels, driver compliance rates, and scenarios, we believe our findings can provide valuable insights into how airports should manage VMS. Our work introduces a novel approach to the scientific airport literature, as some of our metrics were previously unexplored. Additionally, we propose a methodology that other airports can adopt to maximize their curb performance.

Gutierrez, Jorge D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer based systems

Digital fault-tolerant computer-based systems have become commonplace in military and commercial avionics. These systems hold the promise of increased availability, reliability, and maintainability over conventional analog-based systems through the application of replicated digital computers arranged in fault-tolerant configurations. Three tightly coupled factors of paramount importance, ultimately determining the viability of these systems, are reliability, safety, and profitability. Reliability, the major driver affects virtually every aspect of design, packaging, and field operations, and eventually produces profit for commercial applications or increased national security. However, the utilization of digital computer systems makes the task of producing credible reliability assessment a formidable one for the reliability engineer. The root of the problem lies in the digital computer's unique adaptability to changing requirements, computational power, and ability to test itself efficiently. Addressed here are the nuances of modeling the reliability of systems with large state sizes, in the Markov sense, which result from systems based on replicated redundant hardware and to discuss the modeling of factors which can reduce reliability without concomitant depletion of hardware. Advanced fault-handling models are described and methods of acquiring and measuring parameters for these models are delineated.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling top-down drivers of mortality underlying diel population dynamics of Prochlorococcus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Photosynthesis fuels primary production at the base of marine food webs. Yet, in many surface ocean ecosystems, diel-driven primary production is tightly coupled to daily loss. This tight coupling raises the question: which top-down drivers predominate in maintaining persistently stable picocyanobacterial populations over longer time scales? Motivated by high-frequency surface water measurements taken in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), we developed multitrophic models to investigate bottom-up and top-down mechanisms underlying the balanced control of Prochlorococcus populations. Here, we find that incorporating photosynthetic growth with viral- and predator-induced mortality is sufficient to recapitulate daily oscillations of Prochlorococcus abundances with baseline community abundances. In doing so, we infer that grazers in this environment function as the predominant top-down factor despite high standing viral particle densities. The model-data fits also reveal the ecological relevance of light-dependent viral traits and non-canonical factors to cellular loss. Finally, we leverage sensitivity analyses to demonstrate how variation in life history traits across distinct oceanic contexts, including variation in viral adsorption and grazer clearance rates, can transform the quantitative and even qualitative importance of top-down controls in shaping Prochlorococcus population dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of resistive magnetic field generation by intense proton beams in dense plasmas

Current and future applications of intense proton sources abound, including radiography, cancer therapy, warm dense matter generation, and inertial confinement fusion. With increasingly efficient acceleration and focusing mechanisms, proton current densities may soon approach and exceed 10 10 A/cm 2 , e.g., via intense laser drivers. Simulations have previously shown that in this current density regime, beam-induced field generation plays a significant role in beam transport through dense plasmas. Here, we present a theoretical model for the generation of resistive magnetic fields by intense proton beam transport through solid density plasmas. The theoretical evolution of the magnetic field profile is calculated using an analytic model for aluminum resistivity, heat capacity, and stopping power, applicable from cold matter to hot plasma. The effects of various beam and material parameters on the field are investigated and explained for both monoenergetic and Maxwellian proton beams. For a proton beam with Maxwellian temperature 5 MeV and total energy 10 J, the model calculates resistive magnetic fields up to 150 T in aluminum. In conclusion, the calculated field profiles from several beam cases are compared with 2D hybrid particle-in-cell simulations, with good agreement found in magnitude and time scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH).

 While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering the shifting role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers on moss decomposition in peatlands over a 5-year period

Bryophytes are largely responsible for globally significant carbon accumulation in peatland ecosystems. This accumulation is primarily caused by the slow decomposition of these mosses, which can be attributed to a combination of intrinsic (chemical) characteristics of decaying mosses and extrinsic (environmental) influences. Here we investigated the importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of moss decomposition in peatlands and hypothesized that the early stages of decay will be driven primarily by intrinsic characteristics, while extrinsic drivers will become more important in the later phases of decomposition. We tested this hypothesis by placing litterbags of three moss types (Sphagnum divinum, Sphagnum angustifolium/fallax and Polytrichum sp.) into hummock and hollow microtopographies in a bog and a lawn microtopography in a nearby poor fen in northern Minnesota, USA. Decomposition was measured over a 5-year period and confirmed our hypothesis; while intrinsic and extrinsic variables were both important in driving decay rates over time, decay in the first year was primarily predicted by litter type, while extrinsic influences (e.g. peat temperature, moisture, nutrient limitation) that varied at peatland and microtopographic scales became more important by year 5. Though the nutrient (i.e. nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) content of decaying mosses did not explain the variation in decay rates among litter types, analysis of N:P in moss litter suggested that litter-decaying microorganisms became increasingly P-limited over time. The majority of litter decomposition studies in peatlands are generally of short duration (< 3 years). Our study suggests that longer-term studies are needed to reveal the roles of multiple drivers of moss decay. Improving the mechanistic understanding of decomposition processes in peatlands will be critical to developing more robust representations of peatlands and their ecosystem processes in carbon and climate models.

29 poor fen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation–model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data “on the same page” in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analysis and simulation of a magnetic bearing suspension system for a laboratory model annular momentum control device

A linear analysis and the results of a nonlinear simulation of a magnetic bearing suspension system which uses permanent magnet flux biasing are presented. The magnetic bearing suspension is part of a 4068 N-m-s (3000 lb-ft-sec) laboratory model annular momentum control device (AMCD). The simulation includes rigid body rim dynamics, linear and nonlinear axial actuators, linear radial actuators, axial and radial rim warp, and power supply and power driver current limits.

Groom, N. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Propulsion system ignition overpressure for the Space Shuttle

Liquid and solid rocket motor propulsion systems create an overpressure wave during ignition, caused by the accelerating gas particles pushing against or displacing the air contained in the launch pad or launch facility and by the afterburning of the fuel-rich gases. This wave behaves as a blast or shock wave characterized by a positive triangular-shaped first pulse and a negative half-sine wave second pulse. The pulse travels up the space vehicle and has the potential of either overloading individual elements or exciting overall vehicle dynamics. The latter effect results from the phasing difference of the wave from one side of the vehicle to the other. This overpressure phasing, or delta P environment, because of its frequency content as well as amplitude, becomes a design driver for certain panels (e.g., thermal shields) and payloads for the Space Shuttle. The history of overpressure effects on the Space Shuttle, the basic overpressure phenomenon, Space Shuttle overpressure environment, scale model overpressure testing, and techniques for suppressing the overpressure environments are considered.

Ryan, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Transfer of Training Study of Control Loader Dynamics

The control inceptor used in a simulated vehicle is an important part in maintaining the fidelity of a simulation. The force feedback provided by the control inceptor gives the operator important cues to maintain adequate performance. The dynamics of a control inceptor are typically based on a second order spring mass damper system with damping, force gradient, breakout force, and natural frequency parameters. Changing these parameters can have a great effect on pilot or driver control of the vehicle. The neuromuscular system has a very important role in manipulating the control inceptor within a vehicle. Many studies by McRuer, Aponso, and Hess have dealt with modeling the neuromuscular system and quantifying the effects of a high fidelity control loader as compared to a low fidelity control loader. Humans are adaptive in nature and their control behavior changes based on different control loader dynamics. Humans will change their control behavior to maintain tracking bandwidth and minimize tracking error. This paper reports on a quasi-transfer of training experiment which was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The quasi transfer of training study used a high fidelity control loader and a low fidelity control loader. Subjects trained in both simulations and then were transferred to the high fidelity control loader simulation. The parameters for the high fidelity control loader were determined from the literature. The low fidelity control loader parameters were found through testing of a simple computer joystick. A disturbance compensatory task is employed. The compensatory task involves implementing a simple horizon out the window display. A disturbance consisting of a sum of sines is used. The task consists of the subject compensating for the disturbance on the roll angle of the aircraft. The vehicle dynamics are represented as 1/s and 1/s2. The subject will try to maintain level flight throughout the experiment. The subjects consist of non-pilots to remove any effects of pilot experience. First, this paper discusses the implementation of the disturbance compensation task. Second, the high and low fidelity parameters used within the experiment are presented. Finally, an explanation of results from the experiments is presented.

Cardullo, Frank M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Second Phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2): Impact of Land Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts

The recently-completed second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the multi-institutional numerical experiment is described, along with a determination and characterization of multi-model "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant land-derived skill in predicting air temperatures out to two months, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS2016

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗
NASA NTRS2016

H2RG Detector Characterization for RIMAS and Instrument Efficiencies

The Rapid infrared IMAger-Spectrometer (RIMAS) is a near-infrared (NIR) imager and spectrometer that will quickly follow up gamma-ray burst afterglows on the 4.3-meter Discovery Channel Telescope (DCT). RIMAS has two optical arms which allows simultaneous coverage over two bandpasses (YJ and HK) in either imaging or spectroscopy mode. RIMAS utilizes two Teledyne HgCdTe H2RG detectors controlled by Astronomical Research Cameras, Inc. (ARC/Leach) drivers. We report the laboratory characterization of RIMAS's detectors: conversion gain, read noise, linearity, saturation, dynamic range, and dark current. We also present RIMAS's instrument efficiency from atmospheric transmission models and optics data (both telescope and instrument) in all three observing modes.

Toy, Vicki L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Algorithm Development for Predicting Biodiversity Based on Phytoplankton Absorption

Ocean color remote sensing has provided the scientific community with unprecedented global coverage of chlorophyll a, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass. Together, satellite-derived chlorophyll a and knowledge of Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) will improve our limited understanding of marine ecosystem responses to physiochemical climate drivers involved in carbon cycle dynamics and linkages. Using cruise data from the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight (N 269 pairs of HPLC and phytoplankton absorption samples), two modeling approaches were utilized to predict phytoplankton absorption and pigments. Algorithm I predicts the chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficient (a*(sub ph) (m(exp 2) mg chl a(exp - 1)) using inputs of temperature, light, and chlorophyll a. Modeled r(exp 2) values (400700 nm) ranged from 0.79 to 0.99 when compared to in situ observations with approximately 25 percent lower r(exp 2) values in the UV region. Algorithm II-a utilizes matrix inversion analysis to predict a(sub ph)(m(exp -1), 400700 nm) and r(exp 2) values ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The prediction of phytoplankton pigments with Algorithm II-b produced r(exp 2) values that ranged from 0.40 to 0.93. When used in combination, Algorithm I, and Algorithm II-a are able to use satellite products of SST, PAR, and chlorophyll a (Algorithm I) to predict pigment concentrations and ratios to describe the phytoplankton community. The results of this study demonstrate that the spatial variation in modeled pigment ratios differ significantly from the 10-year SeaWiFS average chlorophyll a data set. Contiguous observations of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biodiversity will elucidate ecosystem responses with unprecedented complexity.

phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time Resolved Visualization of A Liquid Jet in an RDE Using MHz Rate Diesel PLIF

The characterization of the dynamic response of liquid jets to transient detonation wave passage is critical for optimization and modeling of liquid fueled rotating detonation combustors. In this work, a rotating detonation combustor (RDC) is operated on hydrogen and air to sustain stable detonation waves that acts as a detonation driver and interact in a one-way coupled manner with a single liquid fuel jet that propagates into the combustion chamber with cycle periods of ~ 250 μs. Diesel is utilized as a realistic fuel surrogate with higher aromatic compounds to enable fluorescence excitation, using the 355 nm third harmonic output of a burst-mode Nd:YAG laser, imaged at rates up to 1 MHz. By optimizing the technique to accommodate orders of magnitude variations in the fuel density throughout the injection process, the PLIF data enable quantitative measurements including the refill time, the relative recovery between liquid and gaseous jets and jet trajectory across various momentum flux ratio. As the passage of the detonation wave imparts significant changes in the momentum flux ratio, the qualitative liquid break-up process and spatial distribution varies significantly in time. As the injection system recovers ~ 70% of the cycle period and return to a quasi-steady position and allow comparisons with theoretical jet trajectories. These data, enabled by ultra-high-speed PLIF imaging, represent some of the first detailed measurements for quantifying the dynamic response and recovery of liquid jets exposed to periodic detonations in an operating RDC.

Propulsion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time Resolved Visualization of Liquid Jet Interaction With H2-Air Rotating Detonations Using MHz Rate Diesel PLIF

The characterization of the dynamic response of liquid jets to transient detonation wave passage is critical for optimization and modeling of liquid fueled rotating detonation combustors. In this work, a rotating detonation combustor (RDC) is operated on hydrogen and air to sustain stable detonation waves that acts as a detonation driver and interact in a one-way coupled manner with a single liquid fuel jet that propagates into the combustion chamber with cycle periods of ~ 250 μs. Diesel is utilized as a realistic fuel surrogate with higher aromatic compounds to enable fluorescence excitation, using the 355 nm thirdharmonic output of a burst-mode Nd:YAG laser, imaged at rates up to 1 MHz. By optimizing the technique to accommodate orders of magnitude variations in the fuel density throughout the injection process, the PLIF data enable quantitative measurements including the refill time, the relative recovery between liquid and gaseous jets and jet trajectory across various momentum flux ratio. As the passage of the detonation wave imparts significant changes in the momentum flux ratio, the qualitative liquid break-up process and spatial distribution varies significantly in time. As the injection system recovers ~ 70% of the cycle period and return to a quasi-steady position and allow comparisons with theoretical jet trajectories. These data, enabled by ultra-high-speed PLIF imaging, represent some of the first detailed measurements for quantifying the dynamic response and recovery of liquid jets exposed to periodic detonations in an operating RDC.

Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron-producing gas puff Z-pinch experiments on a fast, low-impedance, 0.5 MA linear transformer driver

A study on the neutron production from single and double gas puff Z-pinches on the CESZAR linear transformer driver with ~0.45 MA current and 170 ns rise time is presented. Total neutron yield measurements made with a LaBr activation detector are compared for three configurations, using a double nozzle setup. When a single, hollow, deuterium gas shell was used, reliable implosions could only be attained at higher load mass than the optimal value to match implosion time with the driver rise time, with neutron yields of ~10 6 per pulse. The use of a double gas puff configuration with a deuterium center jet allowed a reduction in the shell density and operation closer to machine-matched conditions, recording up to (4.1 ± 0.3) × 10 7 neutrons/pulse when either Kr or D 2 was used in the shell. For a comparable mass and implosion time, using a higher atomic-number gas in the outer shell results in more unstable plasma surface and smaller plasma radius at the location of instability bubbles, which, however, do not seem to consistently correlate with a higher neutron yield. Comparing implosion dynamics with models and neutron yields with literature scaling suggests that the machine current is not well coupled to the plasma during the final stages of compression. Optimizing current and energy coupling to the pinched plasma is critical to improving performance, particularly in low-impedance drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The circular nutrient economy of terrestrial ecosystems and the consequences for rock weathering

Earth’s biosphere is thought to exert a substantial influence on regolith evolution and chemical weathering rates. However, ecosystems are also highly efficient at retaining and recycling nutrients. Thus, when the ecological demand for rock-derived nutrients (e.g., P, Ca, K) exceeds the rates of regolith supply, ecological retention and recycling strategies can minimize nutrient limitations. To evaluate the balance between nutrient recycling and new nutrient input, we combined a plant model that drives growth according to foliar P levels with a weathering model that includes regolith rejuvenation via erosion and export via chemical weathering according to water flow, regolith thickness, mineral dissolution rates, secondary minerals, and nutrient storage in organic and mineral phases. We find that plant growth is strongly dependent on the total regolith nutrient inventory, resulting in a strong correlation between plant productivity and erosion. Increased water export or decreased regolith thickness diminish the total inventory of nutrient corresponding to lower rates of recycling and lower plant growth. In contrast, purported biogenic drivers of weathering, such as enhanced mineral dissolution, only support higher growth rates at high erosion rates. At erosion rates typical of the global land surface, more rapid mineral dissolution combined with enhanced formation of secondary minerals, depletes the inventory of mineral P, resulting in no benefit for plant growth. We also find that the increased chemical weathering export does not scale directly with plant growth. For example, accelerated mineral weathering does increase chemical weathering export but not potential plant growth. Conversely, thicker regolith is associated with a small increase in weathering export, but a large increase in potential plant growth. Collectively, when plant growth is coupled to regolith weathering our calculations suggest that plant productivity is not directly correlated with silicate weathering fluxes, and that biotic drivers of silicate weathering may only be effective at high erosion rates not typical at the Earth’s surface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗