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NASA NTRS1972

Carpet plot data format

Analysis and interpretation of data is the crucial phase of the decision making process. The interplay between variables must be considered as to their relative significance upon the final result, and sometimes time-sensitive decisions must be made when actual events deviate from predicted information, such as Apollo 13. As the number of variables increases past say four, the traditional method of cross-plotting tends to break down, and digital/analog results cannot present a sharply defined method of analysis. A graphical system, the carpet plot, is presented in which an unlimited number of complicated relationships of variables can be evaluated.

Byrne, J. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

NREL's System Advisor Model Simplifies Complex Energy Analysis (Fact Sheet)

NREL has developed a tool -- the System Advisor Model (SAM) -- that can help decision makers analyze cost, performance, and financing of any size grid-connected solar, wind, or geothermal power project. Manufacturers, engineering and consulting firms, research and development firms, utilities, developers, venture capital firms, and international organizations use SAM for end-to-end analysis that helps determine whether and how to make investments in renewable energy projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

An analysis of the focusing performance of Magellan SAR image data

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) focusing can be achieved either based on accurate ephemeris data or on an autofocusing process. For the Magellan project, such a decision must be made in the early phase of Magellan SAR system design. The analysis of the emphemeris requirement is complicated. The analysis given by the author leads to the conclusion that empheris data obtained from the Magellan navigation system provide sufficient accuracy to meet the Magellan image resolution requirement.

Jin, Michael Y.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-Duration Energy Storage: Resiliency for Military Installations

This report provides a quantitative techno-economic analysis of a long-duration energy storage (LDES) technology, when coupled to on-base solar photovoltaics (PV), to meet the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) 14-day requirement to sustain critical electric loads during a power outage and significantly reduce an installation's carbon footprint. The LDES modeled is Antora Energy's battery energy storage system (BESS). It is currently at a technology readiness level (TRL) of 7 and not ready for full-scale deployment. To support decisions on the value of near-term demonstrations, this analysis looked at the potential value of Antora Energy's BESS if deployed in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1973

User's guide to the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations program (MAESTRO)

The MAESTRO system is a mission analysis tool designed to present to the user information necessary to make the various decisions required in the design and execution of a spaceflight mission. The system was designed so that it can be used in both the pre-launch mission planning phase of a mission and during the flight as an in-flight decision making tool. A description of each of the following modes is presented: (1) trajectory propagation mode; (2) retro-fire determination mode; (3) midcourse analysis determination mode; (4) Monte Carlo mode; (5) verification mode; (6) orbit stability mode; and (7) post injection trim mode. A description of the inputs necessary to run the program mode is given along with a sample case.

Lutzky, D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Significance of otolith calcium carbonate crystal structure diversity to microchemistry studies

Otoliths, calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) ear stones of fish, contain a wealth of information about fish life and environmental history yet the CaCO 3 polymorph form the otolith is made of is a critical, but seldom considered, piece of information during otolith analysis. Otolith trace element chemistry data increasingly informs management decisions, but recent work has shown that CaCO 3 polymorphs—aragonite, vaterite, and calcite—can bear on incorporation of trace elements in a non-trivial way. Most fishes are thought to have otoliths of the aragonite CaCO 3 form, but this construct is potentially outdated with many recent literature reports showing otherwise. Our study used previously unpublished neutron diffraction data and reports from published literature to address three objectives: (1) summarize the relative effects of otolith CaCO 3 polymorphism on otolith microchemistry, (2) summarize reports of otolith polymorphs to gain a better understanding of the extent of non-aragonite otoliths among fishes, (3) outline future research needed to align interpretations of microchemistry with our current understanding of otolith polymorph diversity. We found that while aragonite otoliths are the most common, so are exceptions. To illustrate, the ostensibly rare (among species) CaCO 3 form vaterite was reported in at least some otoliths of 40% of the species surveyed. Our work suggests that examination of the CaCO 3 polymorph composition of otoliths should become more common particularly in studies where results will or may be used to inform management decisions. Future research should work to attribute controls on otolith CaCO 3 polymorph expression using a combination of -omics and material characterization methods to enrich the life history and environmental information output from otoliths and increase our understanding of the assumptions made in otolith trace element chemistry studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

CO 2 -SCREEN tool: Application to the oriskany sandstone to estimate prospective CO 2 storage resource

Here, the ability to accurately predict the CO 2 storage resource in saline formations is important to make high-level, energy-related government policy and business decisions. CO 2 -SCREEN (Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis) is a tool developed by the United States Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (US-DOE-NETL) to screen saline formations for prospective CO 2 storage resources. CO 2 -SCREEN uses DOE methods and equations to serve as a consistent mechanism for calculating prospective CO 2 storage resources. CO 2 -SCREEN is comprised of two files: an Excel file used for inputs and outputs and a GoldSim Player file used to run Monte Carlo simulations. CO 2 -SCREEN requires input of physical geologic parameters (i.e. thickness, porosity) as well as efficiency factor ranges (i.e. net-to-gross thickness) to calculate a mass storage estimate. An application of CO 2 -SCREEN is demonstrated here using well log data from the Oriskany Sandstone portion in Pennsylvania. The Oriskany Sandstone is divided into 20 km x 20 km grid cells in which 151 cells contain well log data. CO 2 -SCREEN calculates prospective CO 2 storage resource for each grid cell based on the well log data and uses lithology and depositional environment information for efficiency factor ranges. The Oriskany Sandstone CO 2 storage resource estimate for Pennsylvania, calculated by CO 2 -SCREEN, ranges from 0.07 to 1.28 gigatons (Gt) with a P 50 value of 0.32 Gt. This resource assessment analysis is done to demonstrate the use of CO 2 -SCREEN and results are comparable to previous studies which encourages the application of CO 2 -SCREEN to other saline formations and warrants exploring the expansion of this tool to assess the CO 2 storage resource in other formations such as shale and depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular-level insights into structure and dynamics in ionic liquids and polymer gel electrolytes

We report designing new electrolytes requires a better understanding of the correlation between their transport properties and their molecular structure. In this work, we present a detailed study of ionic liquids and polymer gel electrolytes probing their structure and dynamics by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. In particular, ammonium- and phosphonium-based ionic liquids (ILs) are combined with different LiTFSI concentrations, and then with different ratios of poly(methylmethacrylate) polymer. The temperature dependence of self-diffusion coefficients of mobile species, D Li+ , D TFSI- and D P4441+ or D N4441+ , measured by pulsed field gradient (PFG) NMR spectroscopy obeys the Arrhenius equation. Diffusivity of [P4441][TFSI] ILs is found to be greater than those of the [N4441][TFSI] ILs in both liquid and gel electrolytes. Solid state NMR experiments including 13 C and 19 F MAS, 13 C{ 19 F}, 13 C{ 1 H} CPMAS probe the local structure and molecular-level interactions between ions and polymer in gel electrolytes, particularly for samples with higher PMMA content (≥25 wt%). Finally, the fast field cycling relaxometry has been used to unveil the rotational and translational dynamics of P4441 + or N4441 + and TFSI - by measuring 1 H and 19 F R 1 relaxation rate profiles at different temperatures. A comprehensive NMR analysis including relaxation studies at low magnetic field provides decisive new insights regarding the formation of ionic clusters and the interaction of ions with the polymer chain in the case of the gel electrolytes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of wind turbine blade recycling baselines in the United States

Over the past several years, the wind energy industry has received scrutiny regarding wind turbine blade (WTB) recycling due to the landfilling of WTBs caused by a lack of industrially viable recycling solutions. The amount of WTBs that will need to be recycled is set to increase in the United States as the deployment of wind energy is expected to rapidly grow to meet the nation's energy goals by 2035. While significant progress has been made worldwide, it is still unclear which WTB recycling solutions would be the most cost and energy effective within the United States for the existing fleet of wind turbines. To guide researchers and industry with a clear path forward, a range of options for WTB recycling in the United States are modeled through development of baseline scenarios and the use of formal life cycle assessment (LCA). Model data have been collected through literature review, industry engagement, and expert opinion regarding current end of life practices and considerations surrounding equipment, labor, and logistics. A detailed baseline for WTB decommissioning processes has been developed and used to assess alternative approaches, such as on-site shredding to compare the impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The developed LCA model and baseline scenarios for WTB recycling is used to assess the current WTB decommissioning practices in the United States along with emerging recycling pathways, including cement kiln co-processing and pyrolysis. Initial findings indicate that there are different approaches to decommissioning WTBs in the United States, each of which has unique implications for recycling. In light of this finding, additional results from the modeling will be used to better understand decommissioning practices and assist in making educated decisions on recycling pathways for the future. Throughout the analysis, focus was given to where international efforts might differ from the United States. WTB recycling is occurring worldwide, and different countries have different drivers for creating markets for recycled WTB materials. The contrasts and similarities between the United States and other countries offer insight to areas of opportunity that the United States could investigate and areas that can be readily transferred from existing solutions. By modeling and characterizing the current decommissioning practices and potential recycling solutions for the United States, a clearer vision will be created for pathways forward as to how to handle end of life WTBs to enable more efficient and cost-effective opportunities for material recovery from end-of-life WTBs.

Korey, Matt↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient graph representation framework for chemical molecule similarity tasks

Graph data has emerged in numerous scientific domains and machine learning techniques have been widely used for analysis and learning of diverse data for prediction and decision. Machine learning techniques can readily address complex problems by leveraging their structural information. But graphs cannot be directly used for existing machine learning algorithms unless encoded as vectors. The problem of efficient representation of graphs is a substantial challenge in graph machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage framework for the representation of chemical molecule graphs based on the strengths of Graph Isomorphism Networks (GINs) and Siamese autoencoders. In the first stage, the GIN model is constructed and trained using the structural information of chemical molecule graphs. Node attributes, edge attributes, and edge indices are used as input data, while graph attributes are used as labels. The GIN model effectively captures the structural characteristics of graphs and can accurately predict graph attributes, i.e., molecular properties. It also generates Graph Embeddings, represented as vectors that encode the structural information of graphs. In the second stage, Graph Embedding vectors are further optimized for downstream similarity tasks while preserving the graph structural information. The Siamese autoencoder is constructed and trained, which reduces the dimensionality of the Graph Embedding vectors, while maximizing the preservation of structural information in the original high-dimensional vectors. The resulting low-dimensional Graph Embeddings can be effectively utilized for tasks such as approximate nearest neighbor search. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in accurately predicting graph similarity.

Ma, Jiaji↗

DOE OSTI2015

Pattern ANalytics To Support High-performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER)

Sandia researchers are developing analytic techniques that efficiently detect patterns in high-volume, noisy, remote sensing and other geospatial data, improving an analysts’ ability to detect possibly off-normal events in complex homeland security, nuclear weapons, and emerging threat environments. High-consequence, national security decisions rely on timely, comprehensive answers to complex questions, yet critical gaps in our approach to these questions remain. PANTHER addresses these gaps through fundamental research on: geospatial-temporal feature extraction via image segmentation and classification; geospatial-temporal graph algorithms and computational geometry; and domain-relevant models of human perception and cognition informing the design of analytic systems. PANTHER’s cross-disciplinary R&D approach uses fundamental science and mathematics to understand how to maximize decision systems through rethinking key aspects of geospatial data analysis. New methods in motion and trajectory analysis support both rapid search for known trajectories as well as rapid clustering and anomaly detection. Thus, the perceptual and visual load on users is reduced by providing pattern analytics with elegant visual cues to spatial and temporal characteristics.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2018

Applying the Transactive Systems Business Value Model to IRP

As part of the Transactive Systems Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a value modeling system was developed to support the evaluation of transactive systems. The technique is general enough to be applied outside transactive systems and to demonstrate this capability, a project was undertaken to use this value modeling technique as a means for modeling the valuation process undertaken by vertically integrated utilities when undergoing integrated resource planning (IRP). IRP is the process by which vertically integrated utilities (those that both serve customers directly as well as manage and run generation assets to do so) regularly go through to demonstrate to their regulators that they have a plan to meet the expected future load of their customers in a least cost and compliant manner. Traditionally this has been primarily an issue of how many and of which types of power plants to build but increasingly has included alternative measures such as demand response programs. Increasingly, environmental regulations play a significant role in both determine what types of power plants can be built under current regulations as well as what retrofits or upgrades need to be made to existing plants to allow them to continue to operate. Two use-case diagrams were constructed, one showing the showing the process by which IRP is carried out and another showing how a vertically integrated utility procures the resources it requires to meet load now and in the future. These diagrams help clarify the difference and provide a high-level outline of the two processes. A class diagram was constructed to clearly define the types of actors that would be considered in this model and the relationships between them. This diagram tacitly indicates which types of actors are and are not included in the model which provides significant guidance in defining the scope of the model. The relationship between the classes/actors provides further indication of what areas of the model have higher levels of detail and by implication bear more significance in modeling the system. Using the classes/actors defined in the class diagram, a business value diagram was constructed that defines the key value streams exchanged between the actors. This diagram provides a clear expression of the business case of the vertically integrated utility and who its counterparties are during the process of meeting load. These value streams have not only to do with meeting the load but doing so in a manner that meets environmental regulations. Increasingly, IRPs have three key metrics to evaluate a given plant to meet load: net present value of revenue required, emissions, and renewable energy credits. From this business value diagram, more detailed activity diagrams were formed that focus on a few of the key value stream exchanges, showing the process by which each party accrues value. These diagrams provide insight into the timing and sequence of the interactions in a way that the business value diagrams did not. The transactive value model was found to be highly compatible with IRP and provided a clear, simple model of the analysis done during IRP and key metrics driving IRP decisions. In particular it highlighted a few key items that may or may not have been as clear prior to the development of the model. Specifically, the role of the environmental regulations has become increasingly important and two of the three key metrics by which IRPs are typically evaluated are environmentally focused. Additionally, though generally not acknowledged, the role of the investor was included in this model as they are an essential source of capital in building new power plants and cannot be ignored when defining the business case of the vertically integrated utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation

A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"

Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗