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At least 1,027 records · Page 57

Data-Intensive Science meets Inquiry-Driven Pedagogy: Interactive Big Data Exploration, Threshold Concepts, and Liminality

Threshold concepts in any discipline are the core concepts an individual must understand in order to master a discipline. By their very nature, these concepts are troublesome, irreversible, integrative, bounded, discursive, and reconstitutive. Although grasping threshold concepts can be extremely challenging for each learner as s/he moves through stages of cognitive development relative to a given discipline, the learner's grasp of these concepts determines the extent to which s/he is prepared to work competently and creatively within the field itself. The movement of individuals from a state of ignorance of these core concepts to one of mastery occurs not along a linear path but in iterative cycles of knowledge creation and adjustment in liminal spaces - conceptual spaces through which learners move from the vaguest awareness of concepts to mastery, accompanied by understanding of their relevance, connectivity, and usefulness relative to questions and constructs in a given discipline. For example, challenges in the teaching and learning of atmospheric science can be traced to threshold concepts in fluid dynamics. In particular, Dynamic Meteorology is one of the most challenging courses for graduate students and undergraduates majoring in Atmospheric Science. Dynamic Meteorology introduces threshold concepts - those that prove troublesome for the majority of students but that are essential, associated with fundamental relationships between forces and motion in the atmosphere and requiring the application of basic classical statics, dynamics, and thermodynamic principles to the three dimensionally varying atmospheric structure. With the explosive growth of data available in atmospheric science, driven largely by satellite Earth observations and high-resolution numerical simulations, paradigms such as that of dataintensive science have emerged. These paradigm shifts are based on the growing realization that current infrastructure, tools and processes will not allow us to analyze and fully utilize the complex and voluminous data that is being gathered. In this emerging paradigm, the scientific discovery process is driven by knowledge extracted from large volumes of data. In this presentation, we contend that this paradigm naturally lends to inquiry-driven pedagogy where knowledge is discovered through inductive engagement with large volumes of data rather than reached through traditional, deductive, hypothesis-driven analyses. In particular, data-intensive techniques married with an inductive methodology allow for exploration on a scale that is not possible in the traditional classroom with its typical problem sets and static, limited data samples. In addition, we identify existing gaps and possible solutions for addressing the infrastructure and tools as well as a pedagogical framework through which to implement this inductive approach.

Ramachandran, Rahul↗

Benchmarking Demand Flexibility in Commercial Buildings and Flattening the Duck – Addressing Baseline and Commissioning Challenges

With the transition from our traditional electric grid to a cleaner grid with renewable power generation, there is a need to enable building loads to be flexible. Load shedding and shifting will be essential for flattening the “Duck” for decarbonization. This paper explored the trend in the timing of DR events as a reflection of the grid’s needs using recent four years of event data from 203 retail stores in 11 states. The events are becoming significantly shorter with 2-hour duration being the most popular; shifting to late afternoon and early evening is another trend beyond California. Benchmarking will be essential for accounting DF as a reliable grid resource. This paper addresses a challenging aspect of benchmarking – inaccuracies in counterfactual baseline methods can introduce significant DF metrics variations in addition to weather and building characteristics related factors. The conventional “10/10” with adjustment baseline method has inherent limitation by design for load shifting applications. Therefore, it is imperative to identify alternative methods. This study compared three hourly regression baseline methods with “10/10” methods using two groups of commercial buildings that participated in DR programs: (1) 121 big-box retail stores, and (2) 11 office buildings in CA. The 14-day hourly outdoor temperature regression method was found to produce least error in the tested datasets and is promising for load shifting. The paper also pointed out that commissioning issues can also be a significant barrier for achieving consistent DF performance, which building managers and utilities should be aware of.

Liu, Jingjing↗

Diffraction limited infrared images of the binary star T Tauri

High-resolution images of T Tau and its infrared companion have been reconstructed from near- and midinfrared data collected at the Hale 5-m telescope. The near-infrared (1-5 microns) results were obtained by 2D speckle imaging and the midinfrared (10-20 microns) results were derived from shift-and-add procedures applied to slit scans. The spectral energy distributions of the separated components were constructed from 1- to 20-micron data collected in less than half a year (September 1990 to January 1991). The spectral energy distribution of the optical component (T Tau N) is interpreted as containing two distinct constituents, a photosphere and a surrounding disk of circumstellar material. Measurements at a number of infrared wavelengths over the period December 1985 to January 1991 show a 2-mag color-independent change in the brightness of the infrared component (T Tau S). It is proposed that this may have been caused by an increase in accretion onto T Tau S and model the spectral energy distribution of T Tau S as being dominated by an accretion disk.

Ghez, A. M.↗

Permafrost thermal conditions are sensitive to shifts in snow timing

Abstract Changes in snow precipitation at high latitudes can significantly affect permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth, potentially exposing more carbon-laden soil to microbial decomposition. A fully coupled process-based surface/subsurface thermal hydrology model with surface energy balance is used to analyze the impact of intra-annual variability in snow on permafrost thermal regime and the active layer thickness. In the four numerical scenarios considered, simulations were forced by the same meteorological data, except the snow precipitation, which was systematically altered to change timing of snowfall. The scenarios represent subtle shifts in snow timing, but the snow onset/melt days, the end of winter snowpack depth, and total annual snow precipitation are unchanged among scenarios. The simulations show that small shifts in the timing of snow accumulation can have significant effects on subsurface thermal conditions leading to active layer deepening and even talik formation when snowfall arrives earlier in the winter. The shifts in snow timing have a stronger impact on wetter regions, especially soil underneath small ponds, as compared to drained regions. This study highlights the importance of understanding potential changes in winter precipitation patterns for reliable projections of active-layer thickness in a changing Arctic climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced Model for Earthquake-Induced Damage Assessment

On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M earthquake devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising model that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this model. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this model improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the model to scale to higher data volumes.

crowdsourcing↗

A generalized formulation of minimum shift keying modulation

The modulator structure consisting of a single-input two-output sequential transducer whose output sequences control the modulated signal in the manner s(t) = x(i)p(t) + y(i)q(t) is considered. Here, iT is less than or equal to t, which is less than iT + T, where T is the modulation bit duration and where x(i) and y(i) take values in /+1, -1, 0/. The behavior of a sequential transducer is characterized by means of a 'trellis'. It is shown that, provided only that the 'carriers' p(t) and q(t) have the same energy in every bit interval, the optimum demodulator for the additive white Gaussian noise channel need process the received signal over only two bit intervals in making each data bit decision. It is demonstrated that particular choices of the sequential transducer yield differential minimum shift keying and differential staggered quadriphase shift keying. Possible generalizations of this approach are discussed.

Massey, J. L.↗

Lifetime measurement of excited states in 116 Xe

Lifetimes of excited states in 116 Xe were measured using the recoil-distance Doppler-shift technique. Excited 116 Xe nuclei were populated in the fusion-evaporation reaction 102 Pd( 16 O,2n) 116 Xe. Lifetimes of the $2^{+}_{1}$ and $4^{+}_{1}$ states were evaluated using the differential decay-curve method with $\gamma$-$\gamma$-coincidence data as well as lifetimes of the $6^{+}_{1}$ and $7^{-}_{1}$ states using simulations of spectra considering Doppler-shift attenuation effects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Fluid Shifts

NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 50% of ISS astronauts experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilation, and optic nerve tortuosity also are apparent. This pattern is referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with the spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight, and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, is predicted by the crewmember's preflight conditions and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt). Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in ISS astronauts during acute reversal of fluid shifts through application of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) interventions to characterize and explain general and individual responses. METHODS: We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the Figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility); (5) ocular measures (optical coherence tomography, intraocular pressure, 2-dimensional ultrasound including optic nerve sheath diameter, globe flattening, and retina-choroid thickness, Doppler ultrasound of ophthalmic and retinal arteries, and veins); (6) cardiac variables by ultrasound (inferior vena cava, tricuspid flow and tissue Doppler, pulmonic valve, stroke volume, right heart dimensions and function, four-chamber views); and (7) ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, distortion-product otoacoustic emissions, and ICP calculated by MRI). On the ground, acute head-down tilt will induce cephalad fluid shifts, whereas LBNP will oppose these shifts. Controlled Mueller maneuvers will manipulate cardiovascular variables. Through interventions applied before, during, and after flight, we intend to fully evaluate the relationship between fluid shifts and the VIIP syndrome.

Stenger, M.↗

Nonlinear elasticity with the Shifted Boundary Method

Here, we propose a new unfitted/immersed computational framework for nonlinear solid mechanics, which bypasses the complexities associated with the generation of CAD representations and subsequent body-fitted meshing. This approach allows to speed up the cycle of design and analysis in complex geometry and requires relatively simple computer graphics representations of the surface geometries to be simulated, such as the Standard Tessellation Language (STL format). Complex data structures and integration on cut elements are avoided by means of an approximate boundary representation and a modification (shifting) of the boundary conditions to maintain optimal accuracy. An extensive set of computational experiments in two and three dimensions is included.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hydra: computer vision for data quality monitoring

Hydra, initially developed for Hall-D in 2019, is a system that utilizes computer vision to perform near real time data quality monitoring. Since then, it has been deployed across all experimental halls at Jefferson Lab, with the CLAS12 collaboration in Hall-B being the first outside of GlueX to fully utilize Hydra. The system comprises back end processes that manage the models, their inferences, and the data flow. Finally, the front-end components, accessible via web pages, allow detector experts and shift crews to view and interact with the system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Noncoherent DTTLs for Symbol Synchronization

Noncoherent data-transition tracking loops (DTTLs) have been proposed for use as symbol synchronizers in digital communication receivers. [Communication- receiver subsystems that can perform their assigned functions in the absence of synchronization with the phases of their carrier signals ( carrier synchronization ) are denoted by the term noncoherent, while receiver subsystems that cannot function without carrier synchronization are said to be coherent. ] The proposal applies, more specifically, to receivers of binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) signals generated by directly phase-modulating binary non-return-to-zero (NRZ) data streams onto carrier signals having known frequencies but unknown phases. The proposed noncoherent DTTLs would be modified versions of traditional DTTLs, which are coherent. The symbol-synchronization problem is essentially the problem of recovering symbol timing from a received signal. In the traditional, coherent approach to symbol synchronization, it is necessary to establish carrier synchronization in order to recover symbol timing. A traditional DTTL effects an iterative process in which it first generates an estimate of the carrier phase in the absence of symbol-synchronization information, then uses the carrier-phase estimate to obtain an estimate of the symbol-synchronization information, then feeds the symbol-synchronization estimate back to the carrier-phase-estimation subprocess. In a noncoherent symbol-synchronization process, there is no need for carrier synchronization and, hence, no need for iteration between carrier-synchronization and symbol- synchronization subprocesses. The proposed noncoherent symbolsynchronization process is justified theoretically by a mathematical derivation that starts from a maximum a posteriori (MAP) method of estimation of symbol timing utilized in traditional, coherent DTTLs. In that MAP method, one chooses the value of a variable of interest (in this case, the offset in the estimated symbol timing) that causes a likelihood function of symbol estimates over some number of symbol periods to assume a maximum value. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit within the space available for this article, it can be said that the mathematical derivation involves a modified interpretation of the likelihood function that lends itself to noncoherent DTTLs. The proposal encompasses both linear and nonlinear noncoherent DTTLs. The performances of both have been computationally simulated; for comparison, the performances of linear and nonlinear coherent DTTLs have also been computationally simulated. The results of these simulations show that, among other things, the expected mean-square timing errors of coherent and noncoherent DTTLs are relatively insensitive to window width. The results also show that at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), the performances of the noncoherent DTTLs approach those of their coherent counterparts at, while at low SNRs, the noncoherent DTTLs incur penalties of the order of 1.5 to 2 dB.

Simon, Marvin↗

Aspen Open Jets: unlocking LHC data for foundation models in particle physics

Foundation models are deep learning models pre-trained on large amounts of data which are capable of generalizing to multiple datasets and/or downstream tasks. This work demonstrates how data collected by the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider can be useful in pre-training foundation models for HEP. Specifically, we introduce the AspenOpenJets (AOJs) dataset, consisting of approximately 178 M high p T jets derived from CMS 2016 Open Data. We show how pre-training the OmniJet-α foundation model on AOJs improves performance on generative tasks with significant domain shift: generating boosted top and QCD jets from the simulated JetClass dataset. In addition to demonstrating the power of pre-training of a jet-based foundation model on actual proton–proton collision data, we provide the ML-ready derived AOJs dataset for further public use.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multi-Modulator for Bandwidth-Efficient Communication

A modulator circuit board has recently been developed to be used in conjunction with a vector modulator to generate any of a large number of modulations for bandwidth-efficient radio transmission of digital data signals at rates than can exceed 100 Mb/s. The modulations include quadrature phaseshift keying (QPSK), offset quadrature phase-shift keying (OQPSK), Gaussian minimum-shift keying (GMSK), and octonary phase-shift keying (8PSK) with square-root raised-cosine pulse shaping. The figure is a greatly simplified block diagram showing the relationship between the modulator board and the rest of the transmitter. The role of the modulator board is to encode the incoming data stream and to shape the resulting pulses, which are fed as inputs to the vector modulator. The combination of encoding and pulse shaping in a given application is chosen to maximize the bandwidth efficiency. The modulator board includes gallium arsenide serial-to-parallel converters at its input end. A complementary metal oxide/semiconductor (CMOS) field-programmable gate array (FPGA) performs the coding and modulation computations and utilizes parallel processing in doing so. The results of the parallel computation are combined and converted to pulse waveforms by use of gallium arsenide parallel-to-serial converters integrated with digital-to-analog converters. Without changing the hardware, one can configure the modulator to produce any of the designed combinations of coding and modulation by loading the appropriate bit configuration file into the FPGA.

Gray, Andrew↗

Deforestation, floodplain dynamics, and carbon biogeochemistry in the Amazon Basin

Three aspects of the physical geographic environment of the Amazon Basin are considered: (1) deforestation and reforestation, (2) floodplain dynamics, and (3) fluvial geomorphology. Three independent projects are coupled in this experiment to improve the in-place research and to ensure that the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) experiment stands on a secure base of ongoing work. Major benefits to be obtained center on: (1) areal and locational information, (2) data from various depression angles, and (3) digital radar signatures. Analysis will be conducted for selected sites to define how well SIR-B data can be used for: (1) definition of extent and location of deforestation in a tropical moist forest, (2) definition and quantification of the nature of the vegetation and edaphic conditions on the (floodplain) of the Amazon River, and (3) quantification of the accuracy with which the geometry and channel shifting of the Amazon River may be mapped using SIR-B imagery in conjunction with other remote sensing data.

Bryan, M. L.↗

Nuclear charge densities in spherical and deformed nuclei: Toward precise calculations of charge radii

Precise measurements of atomic transitions affected by electron-nucleus hyperfine interactions offer sensitivity to explore basic properties of the atomic nucleus and study fundamental symmetries, including the search for new physics beyond the standard model of particle physics. Specifically, such measurements, augmented by atomic and nuclear calculations, will enable extraction of the higher-order radial moments of the charge-density distribution in spherical and deformed nuclei. The new data impose higher precision requirements on a theoretical description. The nuclear charge density is composed of the proton point distribution folded with the nucleonic charge distributions. The latter induce subtle relativistic corrections due to the coupling of nucleon magnetic moments with the nuclear spin-orbit density. Additional corrections come from the effect of center-of-mass projection. We assess the precision of nuclear charge density calculations by studying the behavior of relativistic and center-of-mass motion corrections to the second and fourth charge radial moments. Special attention has been paid to the magnetic spin-orbit density associated with the local variations of the spin-orbit current. The calculations for semimagic and open-shell nuclei are performed in the framework of self-consistent mean-field theory using quantified energy density functionals and density-dependent pairing forces. We used the general expression for the spin-orbit form factor that is valid for spherical and deformed nuclei. We studied the impact of various correction terms on the charge radii, fourth radial moments, diffraction radii, and surface thickness of spherical and deformed nuclei. The spin-orbit corrections to charge radial moments and surface thickness show strong shell fluctuations which can make an appreciable effect when aiming at high-precision predictions of isotopic shifts. The inclusion of relativistic and center-of-mass corrections impacts the quality of energy density functionals optimized to charge radii data. To establish reliable constraints on the existence of new forces from isotope shift measurements, precise calculations of nuclear charge densities of deformed nuclei are needed. The proper inclusion of the spin-orbit charge density and other correction terms is essential when aiming at extraction of subtle effects which become particularly visible in isotopic trends. It is also important when developing high-quality nuclear energy density functionals optimized using heterogeneous datasets involving absolute charge radii, differential charge radii, and charge form factor properties deduced from electron-scattering data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Signal-Conditioning Amplifier Recorders

Signal-conditioning amplifier recorders (SCAmpRs) have been proposed as a means of simplifying and upgrading the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Measurement System (GMS), which is a versatile data-acquisition system that gathers and records a variety of measurement data before and during the launch of a space shuttle. In the present version of the GMS system, signal conditioning amplifiers digitize and transmit data to a VME chassis that multiplexes up to 416 channels. The data is transmitted via a high-speed data bus to a second VME chassis where it is available for snapshots. The data is passed from the second VME chassis to a high-speed data recorder. This process is duplicated for installations at two launch pads and the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Since any failure of equipment in the data path results in loss of data, much of the system is redundant. The architecture of the existing GMS limits expansion or any modification to the system to meet changing requirements because of the cost and time required. A SCAmpR-based system is much more flexible. The basis of the simplification, flexibility, and reliability is the shifting of the recording function to the individual amplifier channels. Each SCAmpR is a self-contained single channel data acquisition system, which in its current implementation, has a data storage capacity of up to 30 minutes when operating at the fastest data sampling rates. The SCAmpR channels are self-configuring and self-calibrating. Multiple SCAmpR channels are ganged on printed circuit boards and mounted in a chassis that provides power, a network hub, and Inter-Range Instrument Group (IRIG) time signals. The SCAmpR channels share nothing except physical mounting on a circuit board. All circuitry is electrically separate for each channel. All that is necessary to complete the data acquisition system is a single master computer tied to the SCAmpR channels by standard network equipment. The size of the data acquisition system dictates the requirements for the specific network equipment.

Medelius, Pedro J.↗

Evaluation of Human Spaceflight-Related Tissue Weight Relief Using Whole Body Finite Element Model Simulations

Tissue Weight Relief (TWR) is a physiological condition observed in human spaceflight. It not only impacts the injury biomechanics of soft tissue but also the physiological responses of the cardiovascular system both due to fluid redistribution and the effect of tissue-related transmural pressure on the large venous blood vessels. Understanding the effects of tissue weight relief is especially important because of the role it may play in understanding the cause of Space Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome (SANS). SANS can be characterized by a number of ocular changes which reduce visual acuity and SANS related symptoms occur in up to 51% of astronauts. A prevailing theory for the causation of SANS is that of headward (cephalad) fluid shift and a prolonged increase of Intracranial Pressure (ICP) similar to intracranial hypertension, which is not fully supported by the experimental data or astronaut symptom reporting. However, it is still believed that SANS is caused by a pressure change in the eye and the surrounding tissues. It has been proposed that TWR plays a substantial role in affecting internal pressures and fluid shifts in microgravity. In this effort, two whole-body Finite Element (FE) models – Elemance and THUMS – are used to ascertain the microgravity-associated TWR of the musculature surrounding the lower body veins. Elemance and THUMS are physics-based computational models that have been validated and verified for several automotive and domestic applications, and as such, can simulate the relief of soft tissue weight due to changes in the gravitation vector. Specifically, the current effort modeled the transition of the gravitational vector from 1G to 0G, applied across the whole-body model in a supine position. For each 1G to 0G transition simulation, the lower body vein’s transmural pressure-time profile was extracted and averaged around the anterior portion of the thigh muscle. The ascertained transmural pressure changes from 1G to 0G transition are given in Figure 1 for the Elemance and the THUMS FE models. The transmural pressure changes of 10 mmHg and 21 mmHg are in the same order of magnitude as Lu’s value of 44 mmHg. It is to be noted that Lu implemented a 0D to 1D lumped parameter model and the Elemance and THUMS are 3D higher order computational models. This proof-of-concept approach demonstrates that TWR pressure can be adequately estimated with in silico techniques however, further in silico investigations need to be conducted to address the unique contributions to the transmural pressure from each of the computational models.

Finite element modeling↗

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗